US Democracy and Participation Flashcards
1
Q
Invisible Primary in 2020
A
- It was clear that Trump would be a candidate as he was unofficially endorsed by the Republican National Committee in Jan 2019.
- Trump has been campaigning since 2016 with frequent rallies, stirring the media.
- For the democrats the battle was between moderates Biden and progressives Sanders. Kamala Harris performed well in televised debates.
1
Q
What is the invisible primary?
A
- Once a candidate has announced their intention to run they enter the invisible primary, which can be a long time before the actual primaries.
It includes: - Fundraising (‘money primary’)
- Raising name recognition
- TV debates
- Endorsements by leading party figures
- Opinion polls
2
Q
Different Primaries and Caucuses
A
Primaries: candidates from the same party compete against each other in a public vote to win delegates, selects delegates to go to the National Convention, these delegates are party activists who will vote for a specific candidate according to how the voters in that state voted.
- Open primary states: allow any voter in the state to vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary (Texas)
- Semi-closed primary states: allow you to only vote for a party if you’re a registered supporter/registered independent (New Hampshire)
- Closed Primary states: only allow registered supporters of a party to vote , have to register months in advance (Florida)
- Caucus states: hold public meetings/debates before voting by raising hands or standing. Low turnouts and attracts radicals. (Iowa, Nevada, Colardo)
3
Q
What are the advantages of the primary/caucus system?
A
- Shows the proven ability/electability of the candidates, tests their ability to overcome issues and raise funds
- Raises key issues, competition tests different policies
- Offers voter choice which increases participation, choice between factions within a party
4
Q
What are the disadvantages of the primary/caucus system?
A
- Exposes internal divides within parties, infighting can be fierce, this reduces the popularity of winning candidates and creates negative campaigning within the party.
- Confusing as there are different rules for different states.
- Timing can cause voter fatigue, disenfranchising people in the later states, there might already be a clear leader.
5
Q
Choosing a VP candidate
A
- Chosen by presidential candidate/incumbent president.
- Now they are generally announced before the National Convention, but need to be confirmed by a majority vote at the National Convention.
- President and VP will attract support for different reasons, creating a balanced ticket. (Pence kept traditional Republican support whilst Trump attracted new voters)
6
Q
What is significant role of the National Party Convention?
A
- Selects the Presidential candidate and the VP candidate.
- Decides the policy of the party
(after the primaries/caucuses and before the presidential election)
7
Q
General Election Campaign
A
- The campaign between the candidates of parties
- Labour day, 1st Monday in September, until Election Day in early November.
- Media is central to this, ‘October Surprise’ such as 2000 Bush’s drink driving conviction, in 2016 FBI directors opened an investigation into Clinton over her email server.
7
Q
What is the superficial role of the National Party Convention
A
- Acts as publicity for the candidate, speeches by other politicians and endorsements by celebrities
- Reunites the party after the divisive primary process
- Enthuses the party faithful and electorate about their candidate, rallies party activists.
8
Q
Election Day
A
- Registered voters go to the polls.
9
Q
Electoral College Voting
A
- It is not simply the case of winning the popular vote.
- Each states electoral college votes are based on the number of Senators (always 2) and the number of members of the House of Representatives
- Candidates compete on a state by state basis with the winner receiving all the electoral college votes in that state.
- 538 Votes, winner needs 270
10
Q
What are the advantages of the electoral college?
A
- It respects the tradition of federalism by protecting smaller states. By basing votes in individual states candidates are required to win the support of these states to succeed, emphasising their importance.
Smaller states are deliberately overrepresented to make sure they are not intimidated by larger states
Thus while it is important to win large states like California and Texas, small states are key too and their interests must be protected. EG: California has 63x the population of Wyoming but only 18x the ECV. - Candidates have to concentrate on all regions of the nation, distinct issues and needs.
- Produces a clear winner, winner take all ensures once candidate receives a majority of the ECV, which in turn gives the elected president greater legitimacy.
- Protects low turnout areas, states are protected because they have a fixed value. In 2016, Utah and Hawaii had the lowest turnouts of 46 and 42%, despite this those who vote in Utah and Hawaii can still have an impact as their ECV of 4 and 6 remain intact.
- Makes it difficult for extreme parties to succeed, dominant parties have to appeal to the moderate centre of public opinion, however this can be undermined by the polarisation of the dominant parties recently
10
Q
What are the disadvantages of the electoral college?
A
- Small states are overrepresented, regardless of size each state has two Senators and a minimum of one Congressperson, so a vote in Wyoming has greater value than one in California. This restricts the fundamental democratic principle of political equality, the system causes huge disparities in the level of representation between states, meaning larger status are underrepresented. If California were represented on an equal scale to Wyoming it would have 205 rather than 55 electors.
- The loser can win, it is possible for one candidate to get the most votes, but the other candidate gets elected because they won the most ECV. EG: In 200 Al Gore won half a million more votes than Bush. In 2016, Clinton received 3 million more votes than Trump
- Risk of ‘rogue’ or ‘faithless’ electors, there are 21 states with no requirement that electors follow public voting, so some delegates could vote contrary to the wishes of the people.
- Some states are ‘solidly democrat’ or ‘solidly republican’, this means they are taken for granted, by contrast ‘swing states’ have a disproportionate influence over the result. This is because candidates will concentrate time and money on these states, offering greater political benefits to win them over.
- Voter apathy, the existence of safe seats can depress turnout. In 2012, turnout in the election was just 50.1% in Republican Texas, and the Democratic stronghold of Hawaii saw a low turnout of 44.5%.
- Minor parties have little to no chance of success.
11
Q
Incumbency meaning
A
- The person who holds the office running for re-election.
- Presidents running for a second term, incumbents, have a remarkable level of success.
- Trump has joined the incumbents who failed re-election.
- Clinton, Bush Jnr and Obama are incumbents who have been re-elected.
12
Q
Why is there an incumbency disadvantage?
A
- President’s can receive praise but also blame when things go wrong.
Obama was blamed for failure to pass healthcare reform, George Bush senior was blamed over the economy and failure to stick to promise of ‘no new taxes’ - Name recognition and media attention: If the challenger is as well known as the President and can outdo them under the media spotlight/Tv debates, then this undues the incumbents advantage.
Carter put Reagan in his place by asking the audience if they were any better off than they were 4 years ago. Biden had strong name recognition haven’t being a VP. - Electoral resources and experience: the incumbent can be outspent, in 1992 Clinton outspent and beat Bush Senior who was the incumbent. It can be argued that popularity is what raises money, not the other way around, so an unpopular president will struggle to attract financial backing.
- Lack of primary challenge: Primaries may give the challenger momentum, they have the opportunity to show political strength and take media attention away from the incumbent president.
12
Q
Why is there an incumbency advantage?
A
- Executive control and experience: Presidents can bring benefits to key voting groups or swing states, or make popular policy shifts before an election.
EG: Obama in 2011 appealed to Hispanic voters with policy on immigration and the appointment of the first Hispanic SCJ- Sotomayor. - Name recognition and media attention: Presidents can attract publicity and sell their message, their every word will be reported giving them an advantage. Trump has been accused of using addresses in the Rose Garden as campaign broadcasts, where rather than addressing issues and policy, he will make sweeping attacks on Biden and Harris.
- Electoral experience and resources: the incumbent has an established campaign team with a proven track record. Presidents outspend their opponents and due to their history of success will attract backers.
- Lack of primary challenge: Incumbents usually avoid the bruising experience of a primary challenge, this helps avoid party infighting and sets up a smoother campaign
13
Q
What is campaign finance?
A
- Refers to the funding of election campaigns.
- Candidates raise large amounts of money to run an effective campaign, a lot of this is spent on advertising. Without high levels of spending it is difficult for a candidate to compete.
- Campaign donations can go to national parties, presidential candidates and Super PAC’s
- Concerns: excessive influence of major donors, secrecy surrounding who is donating and receiving cash, inequality of expenditure between candidates or parties.
14
Q
Federal Election Campaign Act 1974
A
- Introduced to regulate money in elections.
- Places legal limits on campaign contributions, private individuals can only donate 2700 dollars and a group can only donate 5000 to an individual candidate.
- Creates a maximum expenditure limit for each candidate in the election and requires them to disclose their sources of campaign contributions and campaign expenditure.
- Created federal funding of presidential and primary elections, works on a matching fund basis (for every dollar a candidate raises, they are given a dollar by federal government).
- Created Political Action Committees, a PAC has to be created by any group wanting to donate money to a campaign and has to register to the Federal Election Commission who oversee finance rules.
15
Q
What were the flaws of the Federal Election Campaign Act 1974?
A
- Introduction of soft money: Money donated/spent that could not be regulated under law, loopholes allowed for continued donations/spending without regulations. For example, a business or interest group could spend money on campaign advertising for or against a candidate without directly donating money to a campaign.
- Supreme Court: various SC rulings undermined legislation which made it harder to restrict donations and expenditure. For example, in Buckley v Valeo the SC ruled that individuals and PAC’s could not be restricted, under the 1st amendment.
- End of federal funding: candidates became effective at raising money. For example, Bush in 2000 raised more than the campaign limit without using federal funds, by rejecting federal funds he was not constrained by campaign expenditure limits. This made it harder for Al Gore, who took matching funds, to compete.
2012 was the first election where neither candidate accepted matching funds, this was repeated in 2016.
16
Q
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2000
A
- Banned soft-money donations to national parties.
- Increased individual contribution limit to 2300 dollars
- Issue adverts could not be funded directly by Unions or Corporations.
- Adverts mentioning a candidate’s name could not be shown within 60 days of an election, unless approved by one of the candidates and with the money spent being covered by spending regulations.
- Candidates had to verbally endorse all their ads.
16
Q
Difficulty in achieving effective reform with this
A
- Led to groups finding loopholes. ‘527s’ were groups that spent money on elections making use of a loophole, continuing the influence of the wealthy.
- Lack of legislation because it is difficult to pass through Congress and perhaps due to the unwillingness of politicians to regulate themselves.
- Citizens United v FEC
17
Q
Citizens United v FEC 2010 and the rise of Super PAC’s
A
- Corporate and Labour organisations were given the same eights as individuals in terms of free speech, meaning they could spend without limits on elections.
- This decision gave rise to new organisations set up solely to influence electoral outcomes without directly working with or donating to a candidate.
- These ‘Super PACs’ raise funds and spend money on the election with the goal of supporting/defeating a candidate without spending restrictions, but they are not allowed to give the money directly to a candidate
- Some say it is an important outlet of political speech, but others criticise it for inequality of funding and the excessive influence of the rich and major donors.
18
Q
Social and moral issues of the Democrats and Republicans
A
- Democrats described as progressives.
- Modern democrats tend to support greater protection on individual liberty and the prevention of discrimination
- This means they interpret the Constitution in ways suitable to the modern world.
- Republicans are described as socially conservative.
- Republicans tend to promote traditional values, arguing for religious choice/states’ rights to be given priority over other rights.
- Literal interpretation of the Constitution as the FF meant it.
19
Q
Economic policy of the Democrats, including welfare
A
- Democrats tend to call for greater governmental intervention in the national economy as a way of providing social justice.
- Biden proposes tax increase for those earning over 400,000
- Want to introduce a significant rise in minimum wage 7.25-15
- Support gov spending/provision on welfare, Obama Care, Affordable Care Act.
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Economic policy of the Republicans, including welfare
- Restricted view of federal intervention in the economy, emphasise the idea of personal responsibility.
- Call for cuts to federal taxes EG: In the 2016 election, Clinton proposed increased taxes for the rich and Trump proposed the opposite.
- Strongly oppose increase in spending on welfare, vigorously attack Obamacare as 'socialism'
20
Foreign policy of the Democrats
- Seen as 'doves', tend to want international consensus and avoid war/military intervention- they prefer diplomacy to achieve foreign policy goals.
- Lower levels of defence spending than Republicans.
- After being elected Obama wanted to 'renew American diplomacy', contrasting Bush's controversial wars in Iraq. In 2010, Obama signed the New START treaty with Russia, reducing each nation's number of strategic nuclear missile launchers.
- However, Liberal critics argue Obama was more hawkish than he appeared, he approved military action in Libya in 2011 and made use of drones to target/kill hundreds of terror suspects, along with innocent bystanders.
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Foreign policy of the Republicans
- Generally argue defence spending is vital and a strong military presence is needed, seen as 'hawkish'.
- Argued Obama's preference for diplomacy showed weakness to American enemies and encouraged aggressive action.
- Untraditionally, in the lead up to the most recent election Trump pledged to reduce the number of US soldiers stationed abroad, stepping away from the Republican 'Hawks'.
22
Factions in the Democratic party- Liberals
- Most left-wing and radical of the Democratic Party, pushing for social justice and greater welfare
- Favour using federal government to achieve social justice through welfare, taxing the wealthy.
- Oppose military intervention
- Most critical of the Republican Party
- Pushed Obama to reject the TransPacific Partnership, Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly criticised Obama on issues including TPP, which she attacked for strengthening a system rigged to favour corporations over workers.
- Sanders, Warren, Ocasio-Cortez, Congressional Progressive Caucus. Attract lots of media attention, popularity surgence with the youth and urban middle class.
23
Factions in the Democratic Party- Moderates
- Centrists, take up the middle ground and are willing to compromise with Republicans especially on issues such as government intervention in the economy and tax cuts.
- Willing to accept some limitations in social issues such as abortion and on civil liberties in cases such as anti-terror laws.
- Moderates represent the dominant force in the Democratic Party, Biden, Clintons.
- Democratic Leadership Council pushed these ideas from 1985-2011.
- New Democrat Coalition Caucus is the largest Democrat grouping in Congress
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Factions in the Democratic Party- Conservative Democrats, ie, 'Blue Dogs'
- A dying breed, shrinking faction that had a one influential Southern Wing dating back to the end of slavery.
- Conservative on moral issues such as guns/abortion, but fiscally they disagree with Republicans on trade and tax, they are seen as Neo-conservative.
- In 2015, 47 Democrats supported extra screening of Iraqi and Syrian refugees, despite Obama's opposition.
- Senator Joe Manchin in 2015 opposed same-sex marriage, although still arguing no one should be discriminated against for their sexuality. He supported the construction of wall alongside the Southern border of the USA and opposed the Dream Act. He was the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh's confirmation as a SC justice in 2019, but he did vote against Barrett's confirmation to the SC.
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What does the 2020 election tell us about Democrats?
- Biden, moderate Democrat won suggesting this faction dominates.
- In the House the Democrats lost some seats, moderates such as Abigail Spanberger blamed the loss on the progressives' demands to 'defund the police' and other 'socialist' policies which gave Republicans the ability to portray all Democrats as radicals and therefore defeat them in the more moderate/conservative districts.
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Factions in the Republican Party- Social Conservatives
- Support traditional norms and values as part of the religious right, focus on morality according to their religious beliefs.
- Mainly evangelical
- Oppose gay/abortion rights.
- Support prayers in school
- Staunch defenders of the 2nd amendment.
- Tend to follow the party line, the official Republican platform on foreign affairs and the economy.
- Grown to be dominant force, key to victory in the 'Bible Belt' where the party's heart lands.
- Most prominently represented by former VP Mike Pence.
- Group has had a boost with the Dobb's decision in 2022 which allowed states to introduce extreme anti-abortion laws, as of April 2023, 13 states had issued complete bans.
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Factions in the Republican Party- Fiscal Conservatives
- Drive a conservative economic agenda
- Advocate a smaller government with less regulation and free market-economics
- Support the abolition of inheritance tax and reduction in most other taxes
- The Republicans Freedom Caucus are rising in influence and have replaced the Tea Party as the main right wing faction. They pushed a 'no compromise' attitude and in 2017 sent Trump a list of 228 regulations they wanted removing including environmental, nutrition rules for school meals and corporation regulations.
- Refused to support Obamacare.
- Resist bipartisan cooperation, preventing conservative Republican plans to compromise on legislative deals. EG: Rep House Speaker John Boehner resigned in 2015 when he came under increasing pressure for his bipartisan deals with Democrats, particularly in resolving the 2013 government shutdown.
- Group appeals to suburbs, business owners.
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Factions in the Republican Party- Moderates
- Trump has referred to them as RINOs, Republicans in name only.
- Typically more socially liberal than social conservatives, support gay rights and abortion, however they broadly support traditional conservative economic policies such as low taxes and small government
- They will accept higher taxes/more gov programmes to support greater social harmony
- Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins have supported same-sex marriage. In 2020, Collins publicly criticised Trump administration after it announced it would abandon non-discrimination protections for the LGBTQ+ community under the Affordable Care Act.
- Collins was one of the only three Republicans to support Obama's 2009 stimulus package budget and tried to broker a deal over his plans to increase minimum wage.
- Bush horrified conservatives with major increases in gov expenditure and a push for more liberal immigration reform.
- Main Street Partnership is their caucus in the House and is most likely to compromise with moderate Democrats in policy, though this has become less frequent.
- Tuesday Group
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Impact of Trump
- Trump has attracted support from far-right groups such as 'Proud Boys', populist and nationalist
- Anti-government, masks
- Socially conservative
- Anti-media, that disagrees with Trump
- Anti-international cooperation and organisations
- Not keen on using US troops
- Protectionism not free trade, anti-China?
- Despite losing to Biden, Trump has retained his loyal base of supporters.
30
Prominent examples of Trumpists
- Trumpists strongly defend him in almost every instance and they are well known due to media attention.
- Majorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert are some HOR who make up the face of the Trumpists
- Their defence of all things Trump is the centrepiece of their faction, they use the theory that the 2020 election was 'stolen' to forward their agenda and it is clear they want Trump back in the White House.
- Defenders of Trump's behaviour when other Republicans won't, Perdue suggested Trump did not use the phrase 'shithole countries' to describe nations like Haiti in a meeting, even though other attendees confirmed he did.
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Coalition of supporters- RACE, black.
- Democrats are seen as the party that defend Civil Rights and attract majority of votes from ethnic minority communities.
- Democrats do well with black voters, this was after the emergence of the Civil Rights Act/Voting Rights Act in the 1960s. But this is also due to their policies on social inequality such as healthcare and welfare, statically black people are in less socioeconomically well groups.
- In 2020, Biden received 87% of the Black vote.
- In 2016, Clinton received 88%.
- In 2012, Obama received 93%
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RACE- Hispanic
- The Hispanic vote is more volatile: the Democrats stance on equality and liberal reforms on immigration attract many Hispanic votes. But the Republican stance on abortion and gay marriage appeal to the social conservatism amongst many Hispanic voters.
- The fear of socialism and a big state is held by Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans, this was played on by Trump and his supporters in 2020 with good effects in areas such as Miami.
- In 2020, Biden won 65% of the Hispanic vote, so did Clinton in 2016. This is less than Obama in 2012 who won 71%.
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RACE- White
- Republicans are largely the party of White America.
- In 2020, Trump won 58% of the white vote, the same as 2016.
- White Evangelical typically vote Republican. In 2020, 76% voted Republican and in 2016 81% did.
- Poor performance amongst other groups mean Republicans have to win the white vote by a considerable margin to have any hope of election.
- In 2020 Biden did win more of the white votes than Clinton previously did, this was in part due to a shift amongst the educated white vote from the suburbs that supported Biden. 51% of white people with a college degree supported Biden, this was previously 45% in 2016 for Clinton.
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GENDER
- Divides on gender are not as marked as those by race.
- But there is a trend that males tend to vote Republican. In 2020, 53% Trump and 45% Biden. In 2016, 53% for Trump and 45% for Clinton.
- Women tend to vote Democrat. In 2020, 57% Biden and 42% Trump. In 2016, 54% Clinton and 42% Trump.
- Difference could be because Democrats do more for women's rights. Equal Rights Amendment was blocked by Republicans, Obama promoted equal pay.
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RELIGION
- Social conservatism, which is an opposition to abortion and gay rights, is a key reason for White Evangelical Christians overwhelmingly supporting the Republican Party. In 2020, 76% voted for Trump and in 2016, 80% voted for Trump.
- In 2020, 52% of Catholics voted for Biden which was a 7% jump from 2016, probably in part due to Biden's Catholicism.
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RELIGION- Jewish and other
- Jewish voters are typically strong supporters of the Democratic Party as they are more likely to be liberal and support economic support for the less well off. In 2016, 71% voted for the Democrats.
- More recently, Biden's tougher stance on Israel could repel Jewish voters in 2024. Trump recently claimed Jews who vote for Democrats 'hate' Israel and 'their religion'. However, the Jewish Democratic Council criticised Trump for playing into antisemitic tropes such as the 'disloyal Jews trope'.
- Other religions, Muslim, Sikh tend to vote Democrat. In 2020, 65% voted compared to 33% Republican.
36
AGE
- In 2020, Trump won 52% of 50-64 year olds.
Biden won 47% of 50-64 year olds.
- In 2020, Biden won 65% of 18-24 year olds, which was a 9 point jump from 2016.
Trump won 31% of 18-24 year olds.
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EDUCATION
- Less educated are more likely to vote Republican, better educated are more likely to vote Democrat.
- In 2020, 67% of white people without a college degree voted for Trump.
51% of people with a college degree voted for Biden.
- However many people with relatively high incomes do not have degrees, education doesn't necessarily equate to wealth.
- Education tends to produce more socially liberal values, or, being more socially liberal makes you likely to seek higher education?
- Trump positioned himself as fighting the 'liberal elite', 'I love the poorly educated'
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