Unit 4 Video Notes Flashcards
Simple Interest Rates
You earn money on the original funds
No “interest on interest”
$100 x 10% for 10 years = $200 ($100 original + 10 interest payments of $10 each)
Compound Interest Rates
You earn money on all funds
Yes “interest on interest”
$100 x 10% for 10 years = $259.37
Interest Rate Drivers
Economists generally agree that the interest rates yielded by any investment take into account: the risk-free cost of capital, inflationary expectations*, the level of risk in the investment, and the costs of the transaction
* = Assume perfect information; inflation expectations are built into risk free instrument
three theories to explain term structure
Expectation hypothesis
Liquidity premium theory
Segmented Market
Expectation hypothesis
long-term rate determined by the market’s expectation for the short-term rate plus a constant risk premium
Liquidity premium theory
long-term rates reflect investors’ future interest rate assumptions + a premium for holding long-term bonds.
Segmented Market
S/T and L/T not substitutable, Rates are determined by Supply and Demand
Term Structure of Interest Rates
Longer Maturity (time)= Higher Yield (interest rates)
Under “normal” conditions rates rise as time lengthens
Risk of Default
Unforeseen Events (“What If’s”)
Normal Curve = Upward sloping: Inverted = Downward
Types of inflation
Cost push vs. demand pull
PUSHED by COSTS
Production at full capacity (can’t make any more)
Costs rise, so companies produce less and supply drops
No change in Demand
Companies that “stay in the game” charge more
PULLED by DEMAND
Production not at full capacity
Demand Increases
Companies must increase spending to produce more (pay overtime, etc)
Companies that “stay in the game” charge more
Under “normal” conditions rates rise as
time lengthens
There are three theories to explain term structure. They are:
Expectation hypothesis; long-term rate determined by the market’s expectation for the short-term rate plus a constant risk premium
Liquidity premium theory; long-term rates reflect investors’ future interest rate assumptions + a premium for holding long-term bonds.
Segmented Market: S/T and L/T not substitutable, Rates are determined by Supply and Demand
Inflation type - Pushed by COSTS
Production at full capacity (can’t make any more)
Costs rise, so companies produce less and supply drops
No change in Demand
Companies that “stay in the game” charge more
Inflation type - Pulled by Demand
Production not at full capacity
Demand Increases
Companies must increase spending to produce more (pay overtime, etc)
Companies that “stay in the game” charge more
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve (often referred to as ‘The Fed’) implementsmonetary policieslargely by targeting the federal funds rate.
The federal funds rate is:
This is the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans of federal funds, which are the reserves held by banks at the Fed.
Expansionary monetary policy is
traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding.
Contractionary monetary policy is intended to
slow inflation in hopes of avoiding the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values.
Crowding out is a phenomenon occurring when
expansionary fiscal policy paradoxically causes interest rates to rise, thereby reducing investment spending.
Increased government spending, financed by borrowing “crowds out” investment by the private sector
Time Value of Money (TVM) permits us to do the analyses to identify
the “cost (or value) of waiting”
Elements used to solve TVM problems
PV or Present Value – Money Now, lump sum stated in dollars (or euros, yen, etc)
FV, or Future Value – Money in the future, lump sum
N – Number of Periods – stated in terms of years or parts thereof
PMT – Payments, multiple sums of money, stated in dollars
I – Interest rate – FV is compounded, PV is discounted
TVM problems can be thought of as “Use four to solve five” - i.e., you will be given four of the inputs and use them to solve for the missing value
How much would $777 earning 7% be worth in a year?
SOLUTION FV = 777(1.07) , or , FV = $831.39
What would be the present value of $925, discounted at 8% for a year?
SOLUTION PV = 925/1.08, or, PV = $856.48
For a single period, simple interest and compound interest operate…
the same way
Bob deposited $333 for 3 years @ 3 %, what was it worth at that time?
SOLUTION PV = $- 333, N = 3, I/Y = 3
FV= 363.88
Barb won an award of $825,000 to be paid in 5 years. She believes she can earn 4.75% on her money. What’s the value of her award, today?
SOLUTION FV = $825,000 N = 5, I/Y = 4.75 PV= $654,159.71
This is the minimum Barb should accept now to transfer award to another party