unit 4 pt 1 Flashcards
What is law of large numbers?
The law of large numbers says that if we observe more and more trials of any random process, the proportion of times that a specific outcome occurs approaches its probability.
Probability
The probability of any outcome of a random process is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of trials.
interpreting probability
If you take a large random sample of {explanatory variable} about {5) of the time {repsoding variable}
Randomness is only predictable in the ______ run.
long
myths on randomness/porbabiloty
- that randomness evens out in the short run and become predictbale in the short run
- probability doesn’t increase w/ each trial. it stays the same.
We can estimate probailities using _____.
stimulation
Whats a stimulation?
Using a chance device to perform many trials of a random process
The steps in performing a stimulation
- describing how to set up and use a random process to perform 1 trial of the stimulation. Identify what you will record at the end of each trial. And if repeats are ok or not
- perform many trials
- use the results of your stimulation ot answer the question
Mutually exclusive events
The events can not occur at the same time.
- if one event occurs, the other can not occur.
Ex; on a die, you can not get 4 and a 2 at the same time. Thus 4 &2= mutually exclusive
Independent events
An additional event does not change the probability of the event.
Knowledge that one event has occurred does not change the probability of another event occurring
ex;, A=event that you go to work today, B=event that it rains today. If A occurs, you need to go to work, this has no impact on B, the probability of rain for that day.
Probability of or events caluclation
P(J or H)= P(j) +P(h) - P(j&h)
- Intersection on venn diagram
