UNIT 4 AOS 2

Question 0

Define international cooperation as it relates to the study of global politics.

Answer 0

When global actors work together to achieve common ideals and goals.

Question 1

Define crisis diplomacy as it relates to the study of global politics.

Answer 1

Negotiations between actors in the global political arena in response to crisis, most commonly concerning conflicts and natural disasters, but also economic and health crises.

Question 2

Define sustainability as it relates to the study of global politics.

Answer 2

Most commonly used in relation to development policies, sustainability seeks to organise states and their economics so that current needs are met whilst not jeopardising meeting these needs in the future. Advocates for maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity as well as the sustainable use of resources.

Question 3

Define the utility of violence as it relates to the study of global politics.

Answer 3

Violence employed as a means of achieving one’s political objectives, commonly witnessed in global politics through interstate war. Violence is purposeful and organised. Traditionally perceived as an instrument of state power, violence and threatened acts of violence are increasingly utilised by terrorist groups as a means of achieving their objectives.

Question 4

What are the causes to interstate conflict?

Answer 4

AFGHANISTAN
Al-Qaeda 9/11 attack (primary - most immediate cause) killed almost 3000, brought al-Qaeda to international attention. US chose to use war as an instrument of state policy, compelling its enemy, al-Qaeda and the Taliban, to change its behaviour and defending its territory and interests from further attacks. Spike in nationalism following 9/11 attacks - 88% approval rating at war’s onset. Direct response to it was that America invaded Afghanistan.

Taliban (secondary - easier to justify invasion)
 supported and was supported by al-Qaeda. Committed various human rights abuses (oppression of women, persecution of Hazara (Shia) ethnic group - 8000 killed in a 1998 massacre) Portrayal of Taliban as human rights abusers legitimised the war in eyes of American and international community, giving it UN approval.

Question 5

What are the responses and proposed solutions to interstate conflict?

Answer 5

AFGHANISTAN
Taliban
- Growing insurgency since 2006; took control of several provinces in 2009; expanded North and East in 2010
- Used tactics such as suicide bombings, virtually unheard of before 2001, now responsible for 150 per year
Green on blue attacks, infiltrating the Afghan armed forces and then attacking fellow Afghans or NATO troops – accounts for 15% of NATO deaths in 2012

UN response – partial effectiveness
- Aimed at establishing peace and security in Afghanistan
UNAMA
- Continued aiding peace situation with UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan established 26 March 2002 by resolution 1401 to assist with transition of democratic, stable state, particularly focusing on organising elections
- 2009 first democratic elections held: 30-35% voter turnout, 800 polling booths closed due to safety concerns, worst violence in 15 years with 26 people killed, as much as ¼ of votes illegal – installed Karzai government, but as much as 20% of his votes may have been fraudulent, and he took full control of the Electoral Complaints Commission in February 2010 in order to stop investigations
- Local support and respect for the police force has reached 81% and increased 8% in last 3 years
- UN succeeded in establishing united security force, but has so far failed to further democratic elections in the country

International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)/US - ineffective for most part
- ISAF training Afghanistan National Security Forces, US has spent $25 billion on them since 2001
- Stopped al-Faruq insurgent offensive in the south, ISAF casualties down 25%, IED use down 12%, killed 900 Taliban leaders - however, insurgency spread to the east and north, 12/34 provinces remain high risk and attacks on ISAF forces have increased from 2,700 in 2009 to 3,200 in 2012
- ISAF has trained Afghanistan’s security forces in order to prepare them for protecting the country following 2014 foreign troop withdrawal
- Numbers have grown from 40,000 in 2006 to 352,000 in 2013 – however, forces continue to be plagued by high attrition rates (10%), drug use (14% tested positive), lack of formal training (50% of police had none) and inability to conduct operations independently (only a third can)
Afghanistan Security Forces to take over January 1 2015

Question 6

What are challenges of interstate conflict?

Answer 6

AFGHANISTAN
Continued insurgency and lack of local support for foreign troops
- Taliban insurgency has grown stronger since 2006, in 2009 it took control of several provinces and in 2010 spread to east and north of the country, with numbers in the east increasing 15% in the last year to 5,000
- Foreign troops were responsible for 41% of civilian casualties in 2007, and there have been 15,000 civilian casualties in the last 6 years
- This has led to anti-US riots and demonstrations, in 2009 5,000 marched in Jalalabad, burning and effigy of Obama and chanting “Death to US”
- Local support has also waned due to foreign troops supporting counter-drug measures, e.g. Dutch military forces protecting opium poppy eradication squads – opium is important to locals, as 30% have a stake in its trade and Afghanistan is world’s Number 1 producer

Weak government and security force, not ready to take over the country in 2014
- Karzai government corrupt
Karzai government has faced accusations of corruption and illegitimacy, with Karzai giving himself full control of the Electoral Complaints Commission (20% of votes for him may have been fraudulent), Afghanistan ranked 174/176 in Corruption Perceptions Index in 2012, fraudulent loans taken out by corrupt officials have cost the government $800 million as of October 2012
- Security force unprofessional, not well trained
Numbers have grown from 40,000 in 2006 to 352,000 in 2013 – however, forces continue to be plagued by high attrition rates (10%), drug use (14% tested positive), lack of formal training (50% of police had none) and inability to conduct operations independently (only a third can)

Tensions between government and foreign powers
- International forces have begun to be challenged in their response by Afghanistan’s newly-acquired sovereignty
Unilateral US action
- October 5, 2013 US captured senior Pakistan Taliban leader Latif Mehsud; however, he was first captured by the Afghan army, and the US removed him from an Afghan army convoy – Karzai has condemned the move, saying “They commit their violations against our sovereignty and conduct raids against our people … in the name of the fight on terrorism.”
- This incident is part of the larger discourse on the continued presence of US troops after 2014 – the major obstacle is Karzai’s refusal to allow continued unilateral US action if they remain, as he wants to solidify Afghanistan’s sovereignty
Afghan actions that doesn’t collate with international interests
- March 2014, the Afghan army expedited the release of 55 Taliban detainees
- January 2014, President Hamid Karzai ordered the release of thousands held in the main prison at Bagram, including almost 100 the United States had classed as “dangerous”.
Tensions around continued US presence
- So far no agreement on a proposed bilateral security deal allowing U.S. troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, when most foreign forces are scheduled to pull out

Question 7

What are characteristics of interstate and intrastate conflict?

Answer 7

War as an instrument of state policy (causes)
- Foreign policy strategy to achieve national interests: defence, deterrence and compulsion. Defending its territory or interests from attack, dissuading another state from attacking it, or using actual or threatened use of force to compel an adversary to change its behaviour. Must have ethical considerations and “Just War” theory. Hardest form of power. Pursue political objectives (Assad). Democracies less likely to use it, as are developed states.

Intervention and occupation (responses and proposed solutions)
- Intervention - external actions taken that are aimed to influence the domestic affairs of a state. From economic aid to military action. Occupation - occupied by military.

Peacekeeping (responses and proposed solutions)
- 31 August 2013 - 98.014 personnel in 15 peacekeeping missions. Different mandate - authorised to carry out different actions or use military power.

Notion of ‘just war’ (challenge)
Morally justified.
Jus ad bellum (just recourse in war)
1. Just cause - as a means of self defence, significant violations of human rights. R2P criteria for use of force.
2. Legitimate authority - authorised by UN using provisions outlined in Chapter VII of UN Charter.
3. Just intentions - cannot be fought with intention of material gain or maintenance of economic prosperity.
4. Proportionality - anticipated benefits of war must be greater than the harm any such conflict is likely to cause.
5. Last resort: war should be avoided at all costs, with all other avenues (sanctions, diplomacy, compromise) exhausted before war is justified.
6. Reasonable chance of success: force must not be used in circumstances where the cause is futile
Just in bello (just conduct in war)
1. Discrimination - non-combatants have immunity from attack
2. Proportionality: amount and type of force is used such that unjust consequences do not exceed legitimate objectives.

Prosecuting war and war crimes in international law (responses and proposed solutions and challenge)

• International Criminal Tribunals and International Criminal Court: prosecute those responsible for war and war crimes.
• Important deterrent to future crimes
• Break cycle of violence and retribution that marks so many conflicts and even change behaviour
• Delegitimising actors in a conflict and deterring

Question 8

What are the causes of intrastate conflict?

Answer 8

SYRIA
Assad rule
- the Assad family has ruled Syria for over 40 years (since 1971) and come from the Alawite (an off-shoot of Shi’ism) minority which constitutes 12% of the Syrian population (80% are Sunni)
- Historic split and opposition between the two, in 1982 there was a Sunni uprising which was violently repressed by the government, culminating in the Hama massacre which killed 40,000 civilians

Economic factors

• a third of Syrians lived below the poverty line in 2011
• a 2006 drought affected 2-3 million people and brought agricultural production down 25%
• the country is plagued by corruption
• Subject to 2004 US economic sanctions which banned the export of US products to Syria – closed off from world’s second largest exporter
• In 2002 Syria’s unemployment rate was 26% (the average of the Middle East), but its youth jobless rate was 6 times higher than the rate among older adults – the highest ratio [youth-adult imbalance] in the region

Popular protests

• began in March 2011, in the city of Deraa
• prompted by the Arab Spring, as well as the imprisonment and torture of 14 local boys who had written “The people want the downfall of the regime” on a school wall
• brutally repressed by police forces, 1000 civilians dead by May
• protesters called for democracy and greater personal freedom

Formation of rebel groups
Free Syrian Army
- July 29, 2011 a group of army deserters released a video that called on others to desert the Syrian army and join them in a fight against the Assad regime
- in March 2012 alone 40,000 Syrian soldiers defected to the FSA```
Syria National Council
- formed October 2011 as an alternative government to Assad with George Sabra at its head
- aimed to form a modern, civil, democratic state
- ineffective – in November 2012 Hillary Clinton said they were “no longer the leader of the opposition”
National Coalition for Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces
- formed November 2012 in Doha, Qatar in order to unite various rebel factions and replace the ineffective SNC
- recognized by 100 countries as of December 2013, including France, US, UK and EU

Question 9

What are the responses of states to intrastate conflict?

Answer 9

SYRIA
EU
- EU oil embargo September 2, 2012 (20% of Syria’s GDP is oil exports, 90% exports to EU, Syria used to earn $3.6 billion a year from oil exports to EU)
- Travel ban and assets freeze on 120 individuals and 40 companies, embargo later expanded to diamonds and gold
- On 22 April 2013 the European Union lifted its embargo on Syrian oil to import barrels directly from rebel groups. Several of the oil fields are believed to be under control of Jabhat al-Nusra. Some analysts say the decision might also set up a deadly competition between rebel groups over the resource.
- “The best-case scenario is smuggling oil over the border, and getting about $30 million a month,” says David Butter, Syria analyst at London’s Chatham House think tank. “That is not much, when you are thinking of running a government.”
- Setting up parallel exports could create Mafia-style networks, since trucking oil will require complex cross-border commerce. The war-torn country has already become fertile ground for smugglers and outfits that make money from kidnappings and extortion. “You open the door to smuggling,” Leila Benali, Middle East and Africa director for IHS, an energy consultancy

Arab League

• Arab League expelled Syria on November 16 2011 and recognised the Syrian National Council (giving the opposition legitimacy)
• Assets freeze, commercial travel flights stopped
• 3 November 2011 the Arab League announced that the Syrian Government had agreed to end its crackdown, remove troops, release prisoners, begin a dialog with its citizens and allow observers and journalists free movement – didn’t follow through.
• The Arab League on 31 August or 1 September 2013 called on the United Nations to intervene in Syria

Iran

• September 2012 sent 150 elite Iran Revolutionary Guard troops to Syria to help preserve the Assad regime
• Thought to have 10,000 operatives in Syria
• has sent 2 warships
• has given over $15 billion dollars to the government
• has continued shipping fuel to Syria, helping Assad to flout EU sanctions on oil imports; sent $9 billion worth of oil by February 2012
• extended two credit lines worth $4 billion dollars to it in May 2013

Question 10

What are the responses of the UN and the regime in intrastate conflict?

Answer 10

SYRIA
UN response: largely ineffective
UN peacekeeping mission
- Annan’s 6 point peace plan released on 16 March 2012, called for military pullback, temporary ceasefire, political dialogue: ceasefire in place April 14, UNSMIS established April 21 to oversee the ceasefire
- Sporadic clashes between opposing sides, Houla massacre on May 25 killed 90 civilians, 49 of them children and prompted retaliation from rebels and total abandoning of ceasefire
- UNSMIS disbanded on June 16, 2012 due to ‘escalating violence’

Resolutions

• UNSC hasn’t passed any resolutions which would seriously address the crisis due to vetoes by China and Russia – “The council’s inaction of Syria is a moral and strategic disgrace which history will judge harshly” Condoleeza Rice
• 5 October 2011 Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution that threatened sanctions against Assad regime
• February 6 2012 Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution that called for Assad to step down
• July 19 2012 Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution that promised sanctions against the government, calling it “biased” and “ignorant” of rebel atrocities

ICC referral

• Syria isn’t a signatory of the Rome Statute, so ICC needs Security Council referral to be able to investigate it
• May 22 2014 Russia and China vetoed a resolution that would have referred the Syrian situation to the ICC
• “The failure to hold those responsible for the violations to account may fuel further atrocities.” A group of independent United Nations human rights experts

Assad government response – limited effectiveness
- Continued warfare against the rebels in order to secure control of the country
- Assad maintains some control over the country, with 60% of the population living in areas controlled by him, and almost 50,000 rebel fighters killed compared to 30,000 army troops
- However, his warfare has been indiscriminate towards killing civilians and rebels, leading to more Syrians joining the rebels to retaliate (20,000 defected from Syrian army in March 2012 alone).
- Also allegedly used chemical weapons on August 21, 2013, killing almost 1500 people, most of the civilians in an area of Damascus and used tactics such as food deprivation of rebel-controlled areas and rape
- This has turned the international community against Assad, with Arab League suspending him in November 2011 and over 100 countries recognising the Syrian National Coalition rebel group as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people in December 2012
Conclusion: Effective in keeping control of populated territory but has not been able to stop rebels and lost legitimacy in international recognition

Question 11

What are the challenges in intrastate conflict?

Answer 11

SYRIA
Foreign powers’ support for Assad regime
- Russia, China have strong trade links with Assad government: Russia holds $4 billion in arms contracts to the Syrian army, China’s aid with Syria was worth $2.2 billion in 2009 and Assad has slashed tariffs for Chinese products – China also wants to establish a precedent of non-intervention in internal affairs
- This has led to UN action being blocked three time by Russia and China veto, e.g. on July 19, 2012 they vetoed sanctions on the government, February 6, 2012 blocked call for Assad to step down. Also makes Assad and other war criminals unlikely to be brought to ICC, as Syria hasn’t signed the Rome Statue and therefore needs referral from UNSC
- Iran continues to financially and militarily aid regime, helping it not feel the impact of EU sanctions by extending two credit lines worth $4 billion dollars to it in May 2013 and helping establish a 50,000-strong paramilitary group to support the government

Fractured nature of rebel forces

• The Syrian National Coalition is recognised as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people by 130 countries, but is not recognised by the rebels: its own president Moaz al-Khalib resigned in March 2013 claiming that the Coalition was beholden to foreign powers who were trying to manipulate it to its own interests; in May 2013 another grouping of rebels issued a statement saying that the Coalition had failed and been overtaken by international and regional players
• The Coalition also can’t control the growing extremist faction of the rebel forces, with al-Qaeda-backed al-Nusra Front numbering 6,000 fighters and targeting Christian villages, and Islamist group Ahar al-Sham being present and indispensable at every major offensive since 202
• Infighting spreading, July 13, 2013 a Free Syrian Army commander was murdered by an Islamist rebel

Question 12

What are the proposed solutions in intrastate conflict?

Answer 12

SYRIA
Resolution
Government legitimacy/power vs rebel legitimacy/power
- Assad government suspended from Arab League in November 2011, no longer seen as representative of the Syrian people; instead Syrian National Coalition represents
- National Coalition for Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces has been recognised as legitimate representative of Syria by US, UK, EU, and another 130 countries in December 2013
- However, Assad government is still seen as legitimate by such powers as China and Russia, who hold sway in the Security Council and therefore block action towards unseating him
- Rebels control 60-70% of the territory, but 60% of the population lives in Assad-controlled areas (rebels strongest in less populated rural areas), as much as 70% of the population support Assad
- No legitimate alternative government has emerged, and Assad seems to hold the upper hand on the ground, although some rebels are recognised internationally

Continued warfare

• 5,000 people are being killed monthly according to the UN
• Increasing atrocities on both sides: suspected use of chemical weapons by Assad, cannibalising of government troop commander’s heart by a rebel
• 100,000 killed and 2.5 million displaced
• No effective resolution, conflict continues to deepen

Question 13

What are the causes of state terrorism?

Answer 13

SYRIA
Public protests and what caused them + why the Syrian government used force (because it wanted to preserve tis authoritarian rule)

Question 14

What are UN responses of state terrorism?

Answer 14

SYRIA
UN
Investigation into chemical weapons use
- On March 21, 2013, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon announced that the United Nations would begin an investigation into alleged uses of chemical weapons at the request of the Syrian authorities.
- On August 25, the Assad regime said it would allow UN inspectors to visit the site of the August 21 attack. A UN team arrived in Damascus the following week after several months of negotiations with the Assad regime as to the scope of their investigations into past chemical weapons attacks.
- UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon delivered a report on September 16 on the results of the UN investigation into the use of chemical weapons in Syria. The report concluded that chemical weapons were used against on August 21 on a “relatively large scale”, and that the victims included civilians.

Resolution for Syria’s chemical weapons disarmament
- On September 27, the United Nations Security Council unanimously voted to adopt resolution 2118, endorsing the OPCW timeline for the removal and destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons, with the deadline set for June 2014. The Security Council Resolution also says that the body will impose measures under Chapter VII of its charter if Syria does not comply with the resolution, or uses or authorizes the transfer of any chemical agents.

Question 15

What are the state responses of state terrorism?

Answer 15

SYRIA
Russia
Agreement on removal of Syria’s chemical weapons together with the US
- On September 9, citing the desire to avert military strikes, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced a proposal whereby Syria would agree to place its chemical weapons under international control, dismantle them, and join the CWC, and the United States would agree not to conduct a military strike on the country.
- On September 14, after two days of meetings, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reached an agreement on a detailed plan for the accounting, inspection, control, and elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons. The plan required Syria to provide a full declaration of its stockpile “within a week” and provide the OPCW and the UN access to all chemical weapons sites in Syria. The plan called for the destruction of the stockpile of chemical weapons and chemical agents by the first half of 2014. The agreement outlined states that “in the event of non-compliance, including unauthorized transfer, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in Syria, the UN Security Council should impose measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter”
- On September 20, following the schedule laid out in the US-Russian agreement, Syria submitted a declaration of its chemical weapons stockpiles to the OPCW.

US
Threats of military intervention
- August 31, President Obama made a statement saying that he would seek an authorization on the use of force from Congress for a limited military strike in Syria. Given the evidence of chemical weapons use by the Assad regime, Obama said he supported limited action in order to deter further chemical weapons use and uphold international norms.
- Prior to the Russian announcement, Secretary of State Kerry, speaking in the United Kingdom, suggested that if the Assad regime turned over all of its chemical weapons to the international community “without delay,” a military strike could be averted.

Syria - Conventional Weapons Trade
- Syria’s primary conventional weapons suppliers are Russia and China. According to a 2011 Congressional Research Service Report, between 2003-2010, Syria’s total conventional arms purchases equaled $1.7 billion, with $1.2 billion coming from Russia and $300 million from China.
State responses to conventional weapons
- Under diplomatic pressure by Western countries, in July 2012, Russia agreed not to deliver new weapons to Syria while armed conflict between the military and opposition forces is ongoing and the political situation is unstable. The Russian government specified then that it would not supply the Yak-130 aircraft, although the contract was already signed.

Question 16

Evaluation of responses of state terrorism

Answer 16

Positive

• September 12, 2013 Assad passed a presidential decree allowing the country to accede to the CWC.
• On October 31, the OPCW confirmed that Syria destroyed, or rendered inoperable, its declared facilities for mixing and producing chemical weapons. The OPCW inspectors were able to visit 21 of the 23 sites and confirmed that the equipment from the remaining two sites that they could not visit because of security concerns were removed and destroyed elsewhere.
• April 2014 – 92.5% of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles have been removed and destroyed
• 18 August 2014 all declared Syrian chemical weapons destroyed

Negative
Continued use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government – sovereignty
- September 10 2014 OPCW announced that it had “compelling evidence” that the toxic chemical of chlorine was used “systematically and repeatedly” in Talmanes, Al Tamanah and Kafr Zet, three villages in northern Syria — this also shows how sovereignty provides a challenge to the international communities ability to respond to Syria’s use of state terrorism

Continued use of conventional weapons causes civilian casualties – more important than chemical weapons, but not as much attention devoted – challenge

• According to the count kept by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the most widely cited source for Syrian casualty figures, the total number of Syrians killed since the start of the uprising as of May 19 is more than 160,000. Of that total, roughly 42,000 have died since the chemical-weapons agreement was concluded last year.
• Chemical weapons use in Syria has killed 2000; conventional weapons have killed over 100,000

Continued use of incendiary weapons not addressed

• Incendiary weapons produce heat and fire through the chemical reaction of a flammable substance. These weapons cause extremely painful burns that are difficult to treat, and also start fires that can destroy objects and infrastructure.
• Human Rights Watch indicates that the Syrian Air Force carried out at least 56 incendiary weapons attacks from November 2012 through September 2013.
• Human Rights Watch in Syria have documented four separate incendiary weapons attacks that resulted in the deaths of at least 41 civilians and the wounding of 71 others.
• Syria is not party to the 1980 Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) or its Protocol III banning the use of air-delivered incendiary weapons in areas with “concentrations of civilians.”

Question 17

What are the characteristics of state and non-state terrorism?

Answer 17

Effectiveness of asymmetrical conflict in achieving a group’s objective:
- Asymmetrical warfare is a violent struggle in which the two belligerents are mismatched in terms of their military capabilities. In asymmetrical conflict the weaker power serves to exploit the weaknesses of the stronger power – often its civilians. Weak forces utilize surprise, technology, innovative tactics, or what some might consider violations of military etiquette to challenge the strong (usually by targeting civilian populations).
- Terrorism is a global crises – turn of the 20th century there were 8 deaths of military personal for every civilian death. Now that figure has been reversed.

Question 18

What are the causes of non-state terrorism?

Answer 18

ISIS
Syrian War:
Al Qaeda in Iraq, forerunner to the IS, was decimated in 2007-09 and fled to Yemen and Syria. The Syrian civil war gave AQI room to recover, regain territory and equipment, rebuild credibility and ultimately break back into Iraq, where Sunni grievances gave it fertile ground. Flush with weapons and recruits from Syria, the ISIS spearheaded a major offensive in Anbar in early 2014.

RELIGION AND IDEOLOGY
The ISIS has develop its prowess in a more global sense through the appeal and clarity of its Islamist ideology. Al-Qaida previously disavowed any ties with the ISIS; however the latter has still come out as the most powerful jihadist group in the world. While the leadership of Al-Qaida Central is stuck hiding in Pakistani caves, ISIS is in the business of establishing the long-awaited Islamic Caliphate. All Al-Qaida franchises seek to establish the Islamic State, but the ISIS has already laid the foundations of one in northern Syria and western Iraq. Their current pseudo-state is one that Muslims from all over the world can join, fight for and attain martyrdom for. Indeed, the ISIS has taken the bulk of foreign fighters wishing to wage jihad in Syria including thousands from the Western world.

FAILURE OF THE ARAB SPRING
The early promise of the Arab Spring has not only failed (instability in Libya, authoritarianism in Egypt, Syrian war, conflict in Yemen and North America) but the combination of state collapse, regional insurgency and civil war that has followed has destabilised an entire region, creating opportunities for al-Qaeda franchises to strike out on their own, potentially moving towards alliances with IS. Furthermore the instability in the region has given rise to a generation of disillusioned youth, who have been exposed to violence and potentially feel helpless to make social change on their own.

GLOBALIZATION

• Influencing the media strategy of ISIS, enabling them to recruit overseas
• Forces Muslims to choose between Western integration and rebelling
• Rising expectations – seen in Arab Spring, failure compounds disappointment, forces to turn against the peaceful course of action to achieve change

Question 19

What are the responses of non-state terrorism?

Answer 19

ISIS
America:
President Obama early in August 2014 announced he had authorized limited airstrikes against Islamic militants in Iraq, scrambling to avert the fall of the Kurdish capital, Erbil, and returning the United States to a significant battlefield role in Iraq for the first time since the last American soldier left the country at the end of 2011. Speaking at the White House on Thursday night, Mr. Obama also said that American military aircraft had dropped food and water to tens of thousands of Iraqis trapped on a barren mountain range in northwestern Iraq, having fled the militants, from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, who threaten them with what Mr. Obama called “genocide.” The president insisted that these military operations did not amount to a full-scale re-engagement in Iraq. But the relentless advance of the militants, whom he described as “barbaric,” has put them within a 30-minute drive of Erbil, raising an immediate danger for the American diplomats, military advisers and other citizens who are based there. As conditions in Iraq deteriorated in recent days, the United States has worked with Iraqi security forces and Kurdish fighters to coordinate the response to militant advances; the cooperation has included airstrikes by Iraqi forces against militant targets in the north. In late August, US jets and drones were deployed to attack fighters loyal to the Islamic State group positioned around the Mosul dam in northern Iraq, after US President Barack Obama vowed to end the “cancer” of the group. he US said its aircraft carried out six raids on Thursday on positions around the dam, which is now under the control of Iraqi and Peshmerga forces, following fierce battles earlier this week to dislodge Islamic State fighters. The attacks destroyed or damaged four vehicles and “multiple” homemade bomb emplacements, a spokesman for the US central command said, taking to 90 the number of raids conducted by the US in Iraq since August 8.

UN
The UN announced on the 19th of August that is was poised to mount a massive aid operation for 500,000 Iraqis driven from their homes by jihadist rebels. “In response to the deteriorating situate in northern Iraq, UN-HCR is the week launching one of its largest aid pushes aimed at helping close helping close to half a million people who have been forced to leave their homes” said spokesman Adrian Edwards. The United Nations estimates 1.2 million Iraqis have been displaced this year. An air, road and sea operation began in late August, starting weigh a four day airlift using Boeing 747s from Aqaba in Jordan to Arbil, followed by road convoys and sea and land shipments. Among the initial supplies are 3,300 tents, 20,000 plastic sheets, 18,500 kitchen sets and 16,500 jerry cans.

Question 20

What are the proposed solutions of non-state terrorism?

Answer 20

Kilkullen:
Kilkullen has suggested that a three-tiered response is necessary to deal with the threat posed by the emergence of the Islamic State. Firstly, he suggests a thoroughgoing, non-partisan rethink of strategy on Iraq; America and the rest of the world must acknowledge its past failures and shift its focus to the broader Middle East and North African region as opposed to narrowly concentrating on merely Iraq as in the past. Secondly, he asserts the “need to hit the Islamic state now, and hard, before it is too late”. He suggests that this will take a small number of specialised troops on the ground, as well as diplomatic re-engagement with Iraqis, dramatically increased military support for the Kurds, enhanced assistance to anti-Islamic State rebel groups in Syria and an air campaign to “smash the group”. Finally, he warns against ignoring the trajectory in Afghanistan that could potentially lead to the same crisis arising in a year or two; “if the main military effort is in Iraq, the main diplomatic effort needs to be in Afghanistan, and on getting political arrangements in place to stop al-Qa’ida and the Taliban from resurging in Afghanistan as the Islamic State has done in Iraq.”

Australia:
In a significant and potentially catastrophic crackdown on “homegrown extremists”, Prime Minister Tony Abbott says new proposed legislation would allow the Department of Human Services to cancel benefits to those assessed as a serious threat to national security. “These new measures will ensure Australian taxpayers are not financing people known to be members of, or working with, terrorist organisations,” he said in a statement on Saturday. Mr Abbott said he was committed to ensuring Australians engaged in terrorist activities were not receiving taxpayer-funded welfare payments. He said legislation would be introduced to ensure benefits can be promptly stopped for people identified by national security agencies as involved in extremist conduct. Abbott’s government is also hardening its terror laws to make it more difficult for Islamic extremists to travel from Australia to fight in places such as Iraq and Syria and easier to arrest them on their return. “We’ve got a serious problem of radicalised people going to the Middle East to fight with terrorist groups,” Abbott told Sydney radio station 2GB. “Some of them will want to come back to Australia and they do pose a risk if they do, because they’ve been radicalised, militarised and brutalised by the experience.” As many as 150 Australians are said to be fighting alongside militants overseas, including at least one Sydney man and his young son who have posed for photos with a severed head.

Question 21

What are the challenges to non-state terrorism?

Answer 21

• Asymmetrical conflict: In an asymmetric war “there is no territory to take, no land to occupy, and, with few exceptions, no country to hold accountable. The target is constantly moving and growing.” Furthermore, Terrorism requires comparatively few resources and thus provides those who choose to adopt it with a viable means of influencing change. It provides its perpetrators with the ability to confront states and their governments without the need for a standing army. The diffusion of relatively advanced small arms, especially in the Developing World, has asymmetrically raised the costs of conquest/occupation for strong actors, so much so that they have become prohibitive. While a country such as the US enters into combat an army commissioned and funded by the state, terrorist and insurgent groups are sub-national and are unconcerned with being held accountable to International law or the international community; there are accountable only to a small group of like-minded individuals. Furthermore, while the US uses conventional tactics and weaponry at a huge cost (Iraq cost US $12 billion per week according to Joseph Stiglitz) with the aim of producing a decisive military victory, terrorist groups use unconventional and relatively cheap tactics such as pen knives, suicide bombings, IEDs in order to weaken enemy morale. Whereas US soldiers are highly visible and make easy targets, insurgents or terrorists are hard to identify, can merge with the local population, able to rely on support of civilian population, can disappear easily into the landscape. Finally, whereas dying is considered highly undesirable for US soldiers and their allies, terrorist combatants are totally committed and peppered to die; death for the cause is considered desirable as it affords hero or “martyr” status.
• Strong actors generally lack the ability or will to commit to a conflict to the same extent as weaker actors, as they are not fighting for their immediate survival and (if they are a democratic country) they must rely on public support to maintain engagement in a conflict. This point is made of the Taliban in Afghanistan, of whom it has been stated that they “don’t have to beat ISAF militarily, just outlast international will to remain in Afghanistan”. In comparison, the British, Australian and American governments are facing declining public support for the war. A similar problem faces the US when considering methods of intervention against the emerging Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. In the context of their perceived failures in the middle east, there is very little public support for any military action, yet too hasty a withdrawal or the failure to intervene could have disastrous results.
• The Islamic State are skilled propagandists and a social media power-house; they use social media to spread their ideology, recruit terrorists, spread fear and manipulate foreign governments. The video released on youtube on the 20th of August showing the brutal murder of US photojournalist James Foley by an Islamic State executioner is an example of the IS using social media to effect change in US foreign policy. The video was a direct response to the US announcement that it would begin air strikes on militants in the north of Iraq (by the 19th of August, more than 70 strikes from US fighter jets and drones had been launched to protect besieged minorities trapped by Islamist militants, as well as its own strategic interests). The purpose of the video was most transparently to terrify the US into halting its aerial bombardment of the militant group, but it could have a different objective, say former national security operatives and terrorism experts; that is, to generate enough public outrage that the US and its allies expand their military campaign in Iraq and Syria to include ground forces, enabling them “to develop a new and powerful narrative of Western oppression of Muslims that would help attract a new wave of recruits” (Clarke Jones, former national security operative).