Unit 3.1 - Greenhouse Gas Emissions Flashcards
What are scenarios in the context of emissions?
Alternative images of possible futures, not predictions or forecasts.
What is the purpose of scenarios?
Assessing business-as-usual evolution, providing coherent datasets for vulnerability studies, and establishing benchmarks for emissions mitigation efforts.
What significant report marked progress in the development of scenarios?
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).
What are the four main scenario families developed in the SRES?
- A1
- A2
- B1
- B2
What does the ‘1’ signify in the A1 and A2 scenarios?
A globalized world paradigm.
What does the ‘2’ signify in the A1 and A2 scenarios?
A fragmented world.
What focus do ‘A’ scenarios have compared to ‘B’ scenarios?
‘A’ scenarios are growth focused, while ‘B’ scenarios are sustainability focused.
What characterizes the A1 storyline?
Rapid economic growth, population peaks mid-century then declines, quick adoption of new technologies.
What is notable about the A2 storyline?
A heterogeneous world with a focus on self-reliance, continuously increasing population, and slower technological change.
What are the key features of the B1 storyline?
Convergent world, population peaks mid-century then declines, global focus on sustainability.
Describe the B2 storyline.
Emphasis on local sustainability solutions, moderate population growth, and diverse technological change.
What is the highest global population scenario according to SRES?
A2 scenario.
What are the primary driving forces in scenarios?
- Population Growth
- Economic Growth
- Structural change and technological progress.
What is the relationship between economic growth and per-capita consumption?
Economic growth leads to an increase in per-capita consumption.
What are the emission factors for different fuels according to the SRES report?
- Lignite: 112 kgCO2/GJ
- Hard coal: 93 kgCO2/GJ
- Light fuel oil: 73 kgCO2/GJ
- Natural gas: 55 kgCO2/GJ.
What does the Kaya Identity link together?
CO2 emissions, carbon intensity, energy intensity, GDP per capita, population.
What is the Kaya Identity Equation?
CO2 Emissions = Population × (GDP/Population) × (Energy/GDP) × (CO2/Energy)
- CO2/Energy represents carbon intensity
- Energy/GDP represents
Where:
What is the purpose of the IIASA modeling suite’s scenario generator?
To project future economic and energy development using historical data and empirically estimated equations relating to observed trends
What are the components of the IIASA modeling suite?
- Scenario Generator (SG)
- MESSAGE
- MACRO
- Integration of multiple databases and models.
True or False: Scenarios include disaster and surprise scenarios.
False.
What is the significance of the SRES scenario database?
It reviews existing scenarios, analyzes characteristics, and develops narrative storylines.
What is the lowest expected World GDP according to the SRES scenarios?
B2.
What is the purpose of the IIASA modeling suite’s MESSAGE?
- Global bottom-up energy systems engineering model
- Intertemporal optimization model used to calculate cost-minimal supply structures under constraints of resource availability, a menu of given technologies and the demand for useful (consumer) energy
What is the purpose of the IIASA modeling suite’s MACRO?
- Global top-down macro-economic model
- Optimal growth model of the world economy to determine the relationship between economic development and energy use
What does the Kaya Identity allow us to do?
This comprehensive framework enables understanding and modeling of future emissions scenarios while considering multiple interacting factors in the global climate system.
