Unit 3 Topic 1 - Elections and voting

Question 1

Outline the stages of Presidential elections

Answer 1

1) Invisible Primary
Announce Candidacy, Increase name recognition, Money raising and organising, Intra-party televised debates
Occurs one calendar year before the election
2) Primaries and Caucuses
i) Show popularity of candidates
ii) Choose delegates to attend the National Party Conventions
Occurs January-June
3) Choosing the Presidential Candidates
Presidential candidates announce choice of running mate
Occurs some days/weeks before the convention
4) National Party Conventions
i) Confirm presidential and vice-presidential candidates
ii) Approve party platform
iii) Acceptance speech delivered by presidential candidate
Occurs August/early September (each lasts 3-4 days)
5) General election campaign
The campaign between candidates of the various parties Occurs September, October, first week of November
6) Election day
Registered voters go to the polls
Occurs Tuesday after the first Monday in November
7) Electoral College
Electors vote in state capitals to choose president and vice-president
Occurs Monday after the second Wednesday in December

Question 3

Explain the invisible primary

Answer 3

o The invisible primary begins almost immediately after the previous presidential election and lasts through to the holding of the first primary and caucus of the election year. It is called ‘invisible’ because few scheduled events are held during this period. It is a time when would-be candidates:
 Try to get ‘mentioned’ in the serious press – newspapers such as the Washington Post and the New York Times
 Try to get coverage on television programmes like NewsHour on PBS
 Set up exploratory committees
 Visit key primary and caucus states such as New Hampshire and Iowa
 Raise money, 2011 romney raised over $50m and Ron Paul $25m
o And then eventually:
 Start fundraising
 Put together a prospective campaign staff
 Formally announce their candidacy for the presidency
Formal Events:
(a) Republican Iowa String Poll in August 1 year before election. Not for incumbent presidents seeking re-election/renomination. 2011 won by Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney = 7th
(b) Democrats annual Jefferson-Jackson day. Obama 2007 gave impressive speech propelling his campaign
(c) Visiting key states i.e. Iowa and New Hampshire who hold 1st caucuses and primaries respectively. By Iowa Republican Caucuses, 8 presidential candidates had made 771 visits to states
 Usually the leader in opinion polls wins the candidacy but not 2007, Clinton and Giuliani ahead of Obama and McCain respectively
o Because the primary season itself is now so short – in 2004 both Bush and Kerry made certain of their party’s nomination by 2 March – there is no longer any time to build name recognition, momentum and money during the primaries. So one has to do it before then – during the invisible primary.
o This means campaigns start much earlier. For example:
 1960: Senator John F Kennedy announced he was running for the presidency 66 days before the first primary
 2008: Senator Barack Obama announced 322 days before the first primary
o Evidence to suggest that this is the most important stage:
 Since 1988, the Republicans have nominated as their candidate the person who was ahead in the opinion polls at the end of the invisible primary on 6/7 occasions
 Since 1988, the Democrats have nominated as their candidate the person who was ahead in the opinion polls at the end of the invisible primary on 4/7 occasions
o The invisible primary has become much more ‘visible’ in recent decades with the introduction of televised debates between the candidates within each party. Even before the primaries and caucuses began in January 2012, the Republican presidential candidates had appeared in 15 televised debates

Question 3

Explain frontloading

Answer 3

o As primaries have become more and more important, states have tried to make their primary more prominent and influential by moving the date earlier in the year
o The number of states holding their primaries or caucuses before the end of March increased from just 11 in 1980 to 42 by 2008
o By 5 February 2008, 55% of the delegates to the Democratic and Republican Conventions had already been chosen, but rule changes put in place by the Republicans meant that in 2012 only 30 states had held their contests by the end of March that year
o Nevertheless front loading has clearly increased the importance of the invisible primary, it has also given the phenomenon of Super Tuesday

Question 4

Explain primaries

Answer 4

• Definitions
o A presidential primary is an election to select a party’s candidate for the presidency. Some states with a small population spread over a large geographic area often hold caucuses instead. The states that held Republican caucuses rather than a primary in 2012 include Iowa, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota and Nevada
• Functions
o To show the popularity of presidential candidates
o To choose delegates to go to the National Party Conventions
• How Primaries are run
o Presidential primaries are run under state law, not federal. There are potentially 50 different ways of running primaries. States decide on 6 important things about primaries:
 Whether to hold a primary or caucus
 When to hold the primary. Primaries tend to be held between January and June but decide: whether to go early or late, or to coincide it with neighbouring states
 How to conduct the primary. Recently some states have experimented with postal voting and electronic voting via the internet
 Who can vote in the primary. Any registered voter can vote in a primary in any state. But in some states, when you register you are asked to declare your party affiliation. Some states then allow only registered Democrats to vote in the Democratic Primary and only registered Republicans vice versa - closed primary. Others states don’t, they allow any registered voter to decide, on the day of the primary, whether they want to vote in the Democratic Primary or the Republican Primary - open Primary
 Who can be on the ballot. States have their own laws about who gets on the ballot. In some states, notably New York, these are strange and often keep serious, well known candidates off the ballot
 How to allocate the delegates. In most primaries, candidates are awarded delegates in proportion to the votes they get - proportional primary. Most states set a threshold – a minimum percentage of votes that a candidate must receive to get any of the state’s delegates. The threshold is usually 15% of the vote. However, in some Republican primaries, whoever gets the most votes wins all that state’s delegates to the National Party Convention. This is known as a winner-takes-all primary. The Democratic Party forbids them, so all its primaries are proportional primaries
Super Tuesday = a Tuesday in early Feb when a number of states coincide their primaries to try to gain influence for their region
Front loading = when states schedule their primary early in the election year believing earlier primaries have more influence over candidate selection – i.e. number of states holding their primaries/caucuses before end of March increased from 11 in 1980 to 42 in 2008. In 2012 however, rule changes made by RNC meant that only 30 states held their republican primaries before the end of March
Modified primary = when only registered party voters can vote along with registered independents, i.e. New Jersey primary 2012 , registered Republican voters could only vote in the Republic primary and same with democrats, but independents could vote in either party’s primary

Question 5

What are the advantages of primaries

Answer 5

1. Increased level of participation by ordinary voters: 30% in 2008 no incumbent, no ‘party bosses in smoke filled rooms’
2. Increased level of interest e.g. Democratic race in 2008
3. Increased choice of candidates: e.g. in 1968 there were 5 candidates but in 2012 there were 15
4. Opening up the process to ‘outsider’ candidates: e.g. Clinton 1992, Obama 2008
5. Removing power of party bosses
6. Significantly diminishing opportunities for corruption by doing away with the old ‘smoke filled rooms’
7. Elimination of candidates. The process removes candidates who are not up to the contest or at being president. Political incompetency - Howards Dean’s ‘dean scream’ led to a media onslaught. Physical incompetency - Biden did not have the emotional energy for an election campaign. Can also be tactical - Jeb Bush and others to strengthen opposition against Trump. This means those who remain tend to be stronger e.g. Obama after winning gruelling primary against Clinton

Question 6

What are the disadvantages of primaries

Answer 6

Turnout is usually low: Less than 20% of eligible voters (not 2008 anomaly, 2012 had record low turnouts in 26 states)
Voters are unrepresentative of typical general election voters: more elderly, more ideological, better educated, wealthier, ideological candidates do better, e.g. Ron Paul Libertarian Republican won 10% vote in 40 primaries and caucuses
Makes the process far too long, which may discourage some better qualified candidates from running
Too expensive and media orientated, Obama and Romney both spent around $1bn
Personal battles. Candidates will attempt to defeat others by portraying them as weak. For example, in the primaries Romney an asset stripper was later used by Obama. Likewise, primaries can become bad-tempered e.g. Bush and Buchanan with Bush losing against Clinton, Clinton Obama 2008
Fails to test a number of important presidential qualities, candidates campaign on personal qualities over policies, internally fractitious
Lack of peer review. Ordinary voters unlikely to know presidential qualities that are needed so primaries test campaigning qualities and not presidential qualities e.g. Trump. Professor Kirkpatrick said professional politicians are ‘uniquely qualified’ to choose presidential candidates. The Democrats tried to address this by introducing super delegates , but in 2008 when neither Obama or Clinton got an absolute majority, they failed to vote independently and maintained proportions

Question 7

Explain primary reform proposals and limitations

Answer 7

• Possible Reform, proposals can be categorised:
o A national primary
o A series of four regional primaries: the Northeast, the South, the Midwest and the West
o Further limits on money-raising and spending
o A pre-primary mini-convention to choose the shortlist of candidates who would then run in the primaries
o States voting in order of size of population beginning with the smallest
• There are four problems with these possible reforms:
o The National Committees and Conventions of both parties would have to agree the same reform
o All 50 states would have to agree to change their state laws
o A number of states strongly favour the current system over any of the above proposals
o Further limiting money raising and spending would require an Act of Congress which would not be deemed by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional

Question 8

Explain regional primaries

Answer 8

• Regional primaries. Primaries ran on regional basis, and not state-by-state.
o Advantages:
 Reduced length time of primaries
 Reduced cost of primaries, making system fairer to those with limited funds
 Gives less weight to individual states, so no state is more important than the other
o Disadvantages:
 Reduces turnout at each state if grouped together (e.g. Super Tuesday) as each state receives less attention from candidates and people less enthused to go vote
 The above would exacerbate the problems with the primary electorate
 Creation of regions would prevent candidate from slanting campaigns to priorities of different states

Question 9

Explain pre-primary conventions

Answer 9

• Pre-primary conventions. Mini conventions held before primaries to shortlist candidates
o Advantages:
 May prevent candidates from dropping out early, as the weaker candidates would have been culled
 Would give the electorate a clearer choice and simpler decision
 Peer review could increase the quality of candidate
o Disadvantages:
 Inclusion of peer review could prevent outsiders from running
 A movement back to party bosses in smoke filled rooms, and perhaps greater corruption

Question 10

Explain open primaries

Answer 10

o Advantages:
 Participation. Enables wider participation and opens up the field to outsiders without strong party backing e.g. Trump
 Cross voting insignificant. A study found that cross voting rarely changes the outcome of the primaries
 Moderation. Need a wider appeal so candidates are likely to be moderated
o Disadvantages:
 Crossover voting. Where voters cast votes for a party they’re not affiliated to and target weak candidates e.g. 2008 exit polls said McCain failed to win a single race up to Super Tuesday, but became front runner after due to non-Republicans who crossed over
 Third parties. They’re pushed out of the process

Question 11

Explain closed primaries

Answer 11

o Advantages:
 Party commitment. Means those who vote have commitment to party and are likely to be more educated on candidates, and prevents crossover voting of weak candidates
 Freedom. Preserves a party’s freedom of association by better ensuring bona fide members influence who that party nominates

Question 12

Explain presidential caucuses

Answer 12

A state based series of meetings for the selection of a party’s candidate for the presidency. Held in a few geographically large but thinly populated states, caucuses attract unrepresentative and very low turnouts.
• Advantages:
o Active participation. More than just ticking a box as it involve debating,discussion etc. This means those who participate are more educated about candidates, and are likely to choose a better qualified candidate.
o Momentum. The winning of a caucus can create momentum to help a campaign. It is said whoever wins the Iowa caucus is likely to be the party’s candidate e.g. Obama in 2008

• Disadvantages
o Turnout. Turnout is extremely low with Spitzer, a political scientist, estimating less than 10% of eligible voters participate in them. Reasons for this include the lengthy process, apathy with politics etc.
o Unrepresentative. Candidates are chosen by party faithful and not ordinary voters. For example, Ron Paul, a left leaning Republican, performed far stronger in states with caucuses than primaries e.g. 36% in Maine. A Fordham University study found that primary voters “better resemble those of the general public”. Voters also tend to be more male, white and wealthier

Question 13

Explain national party conventions

Answer 13

• The Staging of National Party Conventions
• Each of the major parties and some minor parties hold a National Party Convention, they are:
o Held in the summer of the presidential election year (August/early September) and usually last for 3 or 4 days
o Held in large city: in 2012 the Republicans in Tampa (Florida) and the Democrats in Charlotte (North Carolina)
o Held at a venue decided by each party’s National Committee
o Attended by delegates (most of them chosen in the primaries) and the media

Question 14

Which factors influence the decision on a running mate

Answer 14

Geography. Traditionally, a vice presidential candidate usually came from a large swing state in a section of the country removed from the presidential candidate’s home state. For example, Dukakis selected Texan Senator Bentsen. However, the importance of geography has declined e.g. Obama choosing Biden.
Political experience. Obama was relatively inexperienced and chose Biden due to his wealth of experience e.g. Senator for Delaware for 36 years
Age. Obama was relatively young when he was elected, at just 46 years old whereas Biden was far older at 65
Ideology. Obama hoped to cash in on Biden’s appeal to women to counter Clinton. He had proven record of voting sympathetically to women e.g. family issues, abortion etc. Obama had alienated the Jewish population by saying he was open to negotiations with Iran, whereas Biden was a strong supporter of Israel
‘Potential in government’. Running mate may be chosen on what they may bring to the White House and not the campaign. For example, Romney chose Paul Ryan as he was considered a rising star in the Republican Party and thought to have good plans for the economy.
‘Party unity’. One way of reuniting the party after the primary is by selecting a rival as a running mate e.g. McCain choosing Palin, a Tea Party member, as she was considered a more authentic Republican and could ‘energise the base’. McCain was a RINO - ‘Republican in name only’.

Question 15

Explain the formal functions of party conventions

Answer 15

• Three formal functions:
• Choosing the Presidential Candidate
o This function has been almost entirely lost to the primaries. Almost all of the delegates who attend the Conventions are nowadays chosen in the primaries. They are chosen as ‘committed delegates’ – committed to voting for their candidate on the first ballot at the Convention if he or she is still in the race.
o To win the presidential nomination, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of the delegate votes. In 2012, there were 2,286 delegates attending the Republican Convention. Mitt Romney therefore needed 1144 votes to win the nomination. Once he had won that number of committed delegates – which he eventually achieved by late May – he was the certain nominee of his party, nearly 3 months before the Republican National Convention met at the end of August
o It is therefore accurate to say that the Convention merely confirms rather than chooses the candidate since McGovern – Fraser reform. Not since the Republican Convention of 1976 has the choice of the presidential candidate been in any doubt at the beginning of the Convention. In that year Ford defeated ex-governor Reagan by 1187 votes to 1070
• Choosing the Vice presidential Candidate
o This function has also been lost. Not since 1956 has a National Convention actually chosen the vice-presidential candidate, known as the running mate. Nowadays, the running mate is chosen by the presidential candidate. Indeed, in recent years the announcement of the running mate has been made before rather than at the National Convention. In 2012 Romney announced Ryan as his running mate over 2 weeks before his Convention convened. It is therefore more accurate to state that the Convention merely confirms rather than chooses the vice presidential candidate
o In choosing the VP candidate the Presidential candidate often looks for a balanced ticket in terms of:
 Geographic region of origin or residence
 Political experience
 Age
 Maybe gender, race, religion
E.g. McCain/Palin ticket 2008
• Deciding on the Party Platform
o The Party platform is the document containing the policies that the party intends to follow should it win the election
o The platform is put together by the platform committee under the direction of the party’s national committee. The platform committee holds hearings around the country during the first 6 months of the election year. A draft platform is presented to delegates at the beginning of the Convention. There may then be delegates on various planks (part) of the platform. But nowadays, parties try to avoid heated and contentious debates at the Convention. These can make the party look divided – like the Republican Convention in 1992, in its disagreement over abortion
o The Platform Committee decides direction e.g. in 2008 the Democrats held 1600 ‘listening sessions’ where over 30,000 people participated

Question 16

Explain the decision process of the party platform

Answer 16

• Deciding on the Party Platform
o The Party platform is the document containing the policies that the party intends to follow should it win the election
o The platform is put together by the platform committee under the direction of the party’s national committee. The platform committee holds hearings around the country during the first 6 months of the election year. A draft platform is presented to delegates at the beginning of the Convention. There may then be delegates on various planks (part) of the platform. But nowadays, parties try to avoid heated and contentious debates at the Convention. These can make the party look divided – like the Republican Convention in 1992, in its disagreement over abortion
o The Platform Committee decides direction e.g. in 2008 the Democrats held 1600 ‘listening sessions’ where over 30,000 people participated

Question 17

Explain the informal functions of National Party Conventions

Answer 17

• The Conventions are said to have thee informal functions:
• Promoting party unity
o The Convention is the only time in 4 years that the party actually meets together, at other times, the party exists merely as 50 state parties
o Any wounds created in the primaries can be healed
o It gives the defeated candidates a chance to support the chosen candidate publically (e.g. Hilary backing Obama at the 2008 Democrat Convention)
o The media will comment on whether or not the party is united. Disunited Conventions usually lead to defeat at the General Election (e.g. Republicans 1992, Democrats 1980)
o Paul Ryan refused to endorse McCain and held a counter convention against him
• Enthusing the Party Faithful
o The ‘party faithful’ are the delegates. It is important that they are ‘enthused’ by the candidates and the platform because:
o They are the people who will be organising and carrying out much of the campaigning at a state and local level
o They need to communicate that enthusiasm to ordinary voters in their own communities
o They therefore need to believe that they have a winning ticket and winning policies
• Enthusing ordinary voters
o The ‘ordinary voters’ of course, are not at the Convention. It is through television that the parties will hope to communicate with them, and especially through the media coverage of the presidential candidate’s acceptance speech on the last night of the Convention. This speech is important because:
o It is the first opportunity for the presidential candidate to address ordinary voters
o The candidate will give an outline of the policies to be addressed
o The candidate will hope to boost their opinion poll ratings as a direct result – ‘bounce’
o This was especially important for Obama in 2008 because typical American voters knew little about him
o Clinton’s speech brought delegates to their feet 2012

Question 18

Explain the importance of modern day conventions

Answer 18

• Many commentators suggest that, in comparison to Conventions of years ago, modern day Conventions are of little importance because:
o The presidential candidates are chosen in the primaries
o The vice presidential candidate are chosen by the presidential candidates and announced prior to the Convention
o The parties try to lay on ‘scripted’ and ‘sanitised’ conventions, devoid of controversy and hence interest
o The terrestrial (as opposed to cable) television companies give much less coverage to the Conventions
• However, Conventions should not be too easily written off. While the formal functions may have declined in importance, the informal functions are still important. As presidential election scholar Stephen Wayne puts it, the Conventions ‘may have become less newsworthy, but they are still important’

• Important:
o Television coverage. Those who have shunned the campaign will tune in will tune in for key moments e.g.in 2008 more people watched Obama’s acceptance speech than the final of Americna Idol. Professor Jillson said this is what makes the conventions ‘critically important’. According to political scientists, the candidate who was in the lead two weeks after the convention has won the popular vote for the past 15 presidential elections.
o Future of the party. Can be used to identify rising stars of the future. In 2004, a little known Senator from Illinois wowed the democratic convention and 4 years later was the presidential candidate.
o Informal functions. Such as enthusing the party faithful, ordinary voters and promoting party unity

• Less important
o Public opinion. A poll found that 71% of people thought the conventions were ‘less important’ in helping them decide who to vote for in November. Just 12% described them as ‘extremely important’. Moreover, the post-convention polls only signalled the eventual winner in half of the elections
o Television coverage. The three terrestrial channels coverage of the Republican convention fell from 46 hours to 9 hours between 1968 and 2012. Demonstrates a fall in interest of the conventions.
o Decline of functions. The presidential and vice presidential candidates are known beforehand. Likewise, deciding the party platform is just a facade, much of what is said is meaningless.

Question 19

Outline the General Election Campaign

Answer 19

• The general election:
o Is when the intra-party campaign has finished an the inter-party campaign begins
o By tradition begins on Labor Day – the first Monday in September
o Runs for 8-9 weeks until the day before Election Day in early November
o Very expensive
o Is conducted largely on television
o Includes the televised presidential debates – usually three of the during October – plus one televised debate between the two vice-presidential candidates e.g. 72% viewers felt Romney won the first 2012 debate, only 20% for Obama
• The candidates tour the country, spending time in states that have large numbers o Electoral College votes and/or which are seen as ‘swing’ states

Question 20

Explain the effect of Watergate and the Federal Election Campaign Act 1972

Answer 20

• President Nixon had paid people to break into the Democrat headquarters to find out their election campaign strategy, probing a questionable relationship between the President and his donors. These hearings demonstrated the need for clear campaign finance monitoring; Congress passed a series of laws to regulate how much money could be spent and what the money could be used for.
• FECA – The Federal Elections Campaign Act 1972 – replaced all legislation to address political corruption, and designed to reduce the influence of wealthy donors on elections. This was strengthened by the Federal Elections Campaign Act of 1974 passed in response to the Watergate revelations, requiring all candidates to disclose their sources of income, place limits on campaign donations and set up a system of public financing to reduce the need for reliance on wealthy donors.
• The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) enforced the rules, by managing money in politics in a three point plan
1) Disclosure – All campaign contributions had to be declared and published so anyone can see who has given money and judgements made on whether or not the elected rep’s actions have become influenced by their donors
2) Restriction on the size of donations – to limit the dependence of candidates on a small number of extremely wealthy donors
3) Reducing election costs and reliance on private donations – the 1974 law dangled a carrot in front of all candidates running for presidency; if they undertook to limit the total amount of funds raised through private donations, the Federal government would provide matching funds boosting the campaign budget without the need to invest further time and resources in fundraising

Question 21

Explain FECA 1974

Answer 21

o Limited individual contributions to a political party to $20 000 and to a candidate, $1000
o Limited corporate contributions, $5000 through a PAC – the law stated that to prevent the close relationship between a candidate and a donor, PAC’s had to receive donations from 50 donors to donate to at least 5 candidates, therefore acting as a financial filter
o Restricted to a total of $25 000 per year, to prevent donors from using multiple PACs including donations made to a political party.

Question 22

What is the Federal Electoral Commission and why is it limited?

Answer 22

o The ‘Failure to Enforce Commission’ – three Republicans, three Democrats, deadlocked into deciding whether election laws are being broken or maintained. Critics would like to see it removed and replaced with an organisation that heavily punishes those who break the election laws.

Question 23

What is Matching Funds and why is it not a great system?

Answer 23

o FECA dangled a carrot in front of candidates – if a candidate could raise $45million (in 2004) the federal government would provide matching funds to boost their election campaign budget automatically. Matching Funds was only applicable to candidates with the widespread support and voter appeal across the country through raising $10 000 in contributions of $250 each. A further qualification for Matching Funds was small contributions of $5000 from at least twenty states – this would ardently illustrate the widespread support for a candidate outside his home region and support, actively and financially from other states.

Question 24

Why did campaign finance reform not work and why did the SCOTUS limit it?

Answer 24

o FECA was weakened by the Supreme Court (1976, Buckley v. Valeo) limiting what individuals or PACs could spend either supporting or opposing a candidate. It was unconstitutional to restrict how much a person could spend, of their own money; exempting personal wealth from campaign finance regulations, infringing 1st Amendment rights.
o Hard Money – money donated directly to the election campaign. Used to persuade voters to vote.
o Soft Money – money spent on promoting awareness for elections to ensure people can vote.
o Effectively a way of getting around FECA by not using certain words that would infringe the regulation

Question 25

Explain the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (McCain Feingold Law)

Answer 25

o McCain made campaign finance reform the centrepiece of his campaign took pride in his reliance on small donors
o National party committees banned from raising/spending soft money
o Labour unions/corporations forbidden from funding issue advertisements directly
o Using union/corporate money to broadcast ads that mention a federal candidate within 60 days of an election/30 days of a primary
o Fundraising on federal property forbidden
o Increased individual limits on contributions to individual candidates/committees to $2300 to be increased for inflation in each odd-numbered year
o Banned contributions from foreign nationals
o ‘Stand By Your Ad’ provision, resulting in all ads including a verbal endorsement; I am Barack Obama and I approve this message
o The intention of the law was to effectively reduce the amount of money being spent in Federal Elections. Also, to make candidates dependent on a large number of donors making lots of soft money contributions

Question 26

Explain 527s

Answer 26

o Under Section 527 of tax code, trade union leaders began to raise soft money for Anti-Bush advertisements.
o Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)which granted corporate/labour organisations the same right of political free speech as individuals granting to some groups the right of unlimited independent and political expenditure. ‘Using union/corporate money to broadcast ads that mention a federal candidate within 60 days of an election/30 days of a primary’ was also lifted
o Speechnow.org v. Federal Election Commission (2010) led up to the setting up of independent expenditure only committees, known as Super PACs. They played a significant role in fundraising and spending in 2012
o Super PAC’s were perceived by supporters as a positive consequence for deregulation providing an important outlet for unlimited money in electoral politics – that are legally independent, merely function as extensions of one or more campaigns.
o Super PAC’s or IEOC’s/Independent Expenditure Only Committees– fundraising committees which are permitted to receive unlimited contributions and make unlimited expenditures aimed at electing or defeating candidates in federal elections, they are completely forbidden from making any direct contributions to federal candidates or parties

Question 27

Outline the aims of campaign finance reform, were they achieved?

Answer 27

o Limiting the size of donations preventing candidates becoming beholden to donors
o Bringing transparency into campaigns by making donors identities public
o Through limiting spending, keeping overall expenditure down and ensuring there is approximate parity between candidates.

Question 28

Reform was required because of the rising cost of elections due to:

Answer 28

o The length of presidential elections
o Professionalism within campaigning – professional campaign managers do more than the candidate themselves
o Campaign techniques have become more sophisticated

Question 29

Examine campaign finance pre-reform

Answer 29

• US election campaigns are often criticised for spending vast sums of money. Such criticism may well have merit, but it is important to remember some of the reasons why US elections are so expensive, especially when compared with UK parliamentary elections:
o The country is vast (the entire UK is the size of Oregon)
o The elections are not just to elect one legislative chamber as in the UK
o The general election campaign lasts 9 weeks, not 3-4 in the UK
o Candidates must contest the primaries, which begin 9 months before Election Day
o There is no ‘free time’ on US television, buying time is expensive

Question 30

Explain FECA 1971

Answer 30

o Tried to enforce the disclosure of donations through the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and to limit both donations and expenditure. However, this Act was found to have loopholes and was weakened by Supreme Court decisions.
o Buckley vs Valeo 1976 ruled spending money to influence elections is a form of free speech under the First Amendment, meaning individuals or political action committees (PAC’s) could spend as they like.
o Further weakened by Congress in 1979 by allowing parties to raise money for aspects such as voter registration and ‘party building activities’. This ‘soft money’ is addressed later
• Hard money. Money given directly to candidate. Regulated by the FEC in terms of source and amount, and disclosure of names, addresses etc. of donors if giving more than $200.
• Soft money Money given to political parties not directly to do with an election or candidate (e.g party building, voter registration etc.). Was held outside the scope of the FECA, but the Bipartisan Reform Act 2002 prohibits national party committees from raising or spending ‘soft money’ in ways not subject to certain rules e.g. prohibiting an advertisement paid for by a corporation, ‘stand by your ad’ etc. However, these rules do not cover the Internet.
• Political Action Committees (PACs)
o Citizens United vs Federal Election Commission (2010) granted corporate and labour organisations same rights of political free speech as individuals, granting them right of unlimited independent political expenditure. Led to creation of fundraising committees which are permitted to receive unlimited contributions and make unlimited expenditures at either electing or defeating candidates. They are forbidden to make direct contributions to federal candidates or parties.
o In 2012, Restore our Future spent $142.6m during the election cycle on advocating the defeat of Obama and election of Romney. By Election Day Super PACs spent $710m, with 48% spent by the 3 largest Super PACs. Demonstrates inequality.
• Matching funds
o This involves matching donations by individual donors dollar-for-dollar up to $250. If candidates accept matching funds, they are obliged to limit spending to $40m during the presidential campaign.
o Obama was the first major candidate to forgo matching funds whereas McCain took the money and had spending capped at $84m. Obama, however, was able to raise $150m in September alone. In 2012, neither Obama or Romney took federal money

Question 31

What are some issues with campaign finance reform?

Answer 31

o Freedom of speech. Argued by a number of groups, including the ACLU, in an interesting coalition of the left and right
o Unintended consequences. Idea that regulation could limit political giving as a form of political participation and make running for office so complicated that only those wealthy enough to employ legal staff will be able to do it. It may also enhance the value of incumbency
o FEC. Criticised as its membership, 6 commissioners nominated by the President, makes it unlikely to act against the interest of the two main parties. Also, any punishment handed down will be years after a particular election

Question 32

Explain the 2002 campaign finance reforms

Answer 32

• Until the 1970s, campaign finance was largely unregulated. But the 1970s reforms left a number of loopholes which became new and significant problems during the elections of the 1980s and 90s. these included problems concerning:
o ‘soft money’ spent by political parties on ‘party building’ or ‘get out the vote’ activities
o The growth in ‘issue advocacy’ campaigning by, for example, abortion, environmental and labour union groups
o The weakening of parties as ‘matching funds’ go directly to the candidates’’ organisations rather than to the parties
o The failure of the Federal Election Commission to have much in the way of enforcement powers against those who break the new rules
• Following the campaign finance abuses surrounding Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996, Republican Senator John McCain and Democrat Senator Russell Feingold were successful in getting another raft of reforms passed through Congress in 2002
• The principle changes brought about by the 2002 reforms were:
o National Party Committees banned from raising or spending soft money
o Labour unions and corporate groups forbidden from directly funding issue advertisements
o The prohibition of fundraising on federal property
o Increased individual limits on contributions to individual candidates or candidate committees to $w,300 (2007-08) to be further increased for inflation in each odd numbered year
o The banning of contributions from foreign nationals
o ‘Stand by Your Ad’ provision, resulting in all campaign ads including a verbal endorsement by the candidate with the words ‘I’m …. And I approve this message’
• AS a result of the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission, Super PACs appeared on the scene and played a significant role in the 2012 Presidential election. By Election Day, 1777 Super PACs had spent over $710 million

Question 33

Explain the electoral impact of television

Answer 33

• Different types and forms of television
o Television is the principal medium for imparting information during a US election, it exists in two forms:
 Terrestrial – the ‘networks’: ABC, CBS, NBC and PBS
 Cable: CNN, Fox News. MSNBC and C-SPAN
o Television carries mainly four different forms of political information and coverage:
 Daily news programmes: e.g. ABC’s Good Morning American and World News
 Nightly documentary programmes: e.g. NewsHour (PBS)
 Chat shows: e.g. Piers Morgan Tonight (CNN until 2014)
 Comedy shows: e.g. Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• Televised Presidential Debates
o There are traditional televised presidential debates during the general election campaign:
 They began in 1960, between Kennedy and Nixon, although not used again until 1976
 They have been used in every election since
 There are usually three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate, each lasting 1.5 hours
 They generally include only Democrat and Republican candidates
 Most have been in the format of a joint press conference with a panel of journalists or a moderator asking questions
 But from 1992, ‘town hall’ style debates have also been used – a more informal style with questions put by an invited audience
• These debates can be important, rules of thumb for debaters:
o Style is often more important than substance – it’s not what you say, but how you say it and how you look
o Avoid serious gaffes
o Look for opportunities to deliver a ‘sound bite’ that will be used be the news organisation in their highlights
o Debates are more difficult for incumbent presidents than for challenger because they have a record to defend and can have their words from 4 years ago quoted back at them
There are usually three debates held between two major party presidential candidates, although Ross Perot was allowed to participate in 1992. The audience for a debate could be between 70m and 100m globally. The incumbent’s record will be the focus of a lot of the debate if he is running.

Question 34

Why are Presidential debates important?

Answer 34

1. The only time the presidential candidates get to address American voters unfiltered for 90 minutes at a time
2. Often very large audience viewing the debates
3. Sound bites are played over and over
4. Especially important for challengers
5. Can change the direction of the campaign (e.g. first debate in 2012)

Question 35

Why are Presidential debates unimportant?

Answer 35

Rarely have any lasting impact on the outcome of the election
Style is more important than substance: the memorable points are usually about trivia rather than substance
Usually confirm the position of the front runner in the race
Viewing figures usually decline for later debates
Often not truly debates, merely candidates giving their pre-rehearsed answers

Question 36

Outline the Obama v Romney debates 2012

Answer 36

Obama v. Romney, 2012
Had a significant impact on the course of the campaign. Obama had a comfortable lead in the polls, but the gap narrowed following the first presidential debate. Obama looked bored and disengaged, whereas Romney appeared more animated. The Gallup Poll found that 72% thought Romney won the debate, leading to Romney’s poll numbers rising at the expense of Obama with Romney leading the Gallup seven day tracking poll for the first time. However, debates rarely affect the course of the campaign- this is a rarity. Though this certainly raised GOP morale, seems to have limited impact on the final result.

Question 37

What is the significance of TV debates?

Answer 37

• Significance
o Style over substance. It is how something has been said, and not what was said. For example, Obama lost the first debate due to his manner and style, not what was said
o Verbal gaffes. Most notable ones include in 2000, when Gore made some exaggerated claims that the Bush campaign immediately drew attention to after the debate
o Sound bites. Many do not watch the whole debate but watch the breakfast shows the next morning. For example, Obama in 2012 said Romney favoured ‘the foreign policy of the 1980s, social policy of the 1950s and economic policy of the 1920s.’
o Viewing figures. The last three elections have had an increase in viewing figures. This hit 64m in 2012

Question 38

Explain television commercials

Answer 38

• Television Commercials
o Television commercials date from the 1952 campaign. They are usually 20 second commercials but may be longer nearer Election Day.
o There are different types of commercial. There are those that are positive about your candidate. These may be either biographical or policy orientated. There are also negative commercials, talking only about your opponent. These may be either ‘attack ads’ or humorous – attempting to poke fun at your opponent.
o Discussion regarding television commercials centres upon:
 Cost
 Whether ‘attack ads’ are double edged swords, which hurt the purveyor more than the intended target
 The extent to which commercials change voters’ minds and voting intentions
 Evidence that commercials do little in the way of conversion but more in terms of reinforcement and activation – reinforcing what voters already think and activating them to turn out and vote for your candidate.
• News coverage. Where most Americans gain their knowledge of politics. Many channels tend to more sympathetic to a party eg. Fox News and the Republican party or CNN. However, Americans tend to be aware of the bias with just 44% of Americans having a ‘great deal’ or ‘fair amount’ of trust and confidence in media

Question 39

Explain the Electoral College

Answer 39

• How it works
o Each state is awarded a certain number of electoral college votes
o This number is equal to that state’s representation in Congress – the number of Senators (2) plus the number of Representatives. Thus in 2008, California had 55 ECVs while Wyoming only had 3
o There are a total of 538 ECVs
o To win the presidency, a candidate must win an absolute majority of ECVs – 270
o Whichever candidate wins the most popular votes in a state receives all the ECVs of that state. This is not in the Constitution but 48 of the 50 states have a law requiring it
o The other two states – Maine and Nebraska – award ECVs on a different basis, depending on who wins the presidential vote in each congressional district
o The Electoral College never meets together. The Electors meet in their respective state capitals on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December and send their results to the vice president in Washington DC
o If no candidate wins 270 ECVs, the president would be elected by the House of Representatives, each state having one vote – 50 total
o The VP would be elected by the Senate, each senator having one vote – 100 total
o The winners would need to receive an absolute majority of the votes in the respective chambers
o Only twice has the Electoral College failed to come up with a winner and the election been thrown to Congress – 1800 and 1824

Question 40

Explain the advantages of the EC

Answer 40

1. Preserves the voice of the small population states
2. Promotes a two horse race, with the winner therefore likely to receive over 50% of the popular vote, giving the president a mandate to govern. In 25 of the last 37 elections the winner has gained more than 50 % of the popular vote, but not in 1992, 1996 of 2000
3. Promote cohesiveness, a President must gain votes from all regions and interests of all Americans
4. Ensures federalism exists. The Electoral College allows states to choose the president, not narrow margins in the popular vote. Therefore, this protects each state, no matter how large or small, still can have a say in how it is run. This is an important part of federalism and the US’ democratic system
5. Popular will almost always prevails, only once in past 125 years was this not the case (2000 election)

Question 41

Explain the weaknesses of the EC

Answer 41

1. Small population states over represented
2. Winner takes all system can distort the result e.g. I 2008 Obama won 52% of the popular vote but 68% of the Electoral College votes
3. Possible for a candidate to win the popular vote but to lose in the Electoral College e.g. Gore in 2000
4. Unfair to national third parties e.g. Perot in 1992 gained 19% of the popular vote but no ECVs
5. So called ‘rogue’ or ‘faithless’ Electors vote for candidates other than the one who won the popular vote in their state
6. The system used in the case of an Electoral College deadlock could result in the House choosing a president of one party and the Senate choosing the VP of another

Question 42

Suggest possible reforms for the Electoral College

Answer 42

• Abandon the winner takes all system for a more proportional system, as used by Maine and Nebraska. Had Florida been using a proportional system in 2000 it might have eased the problem. But had all 50 states used this system in 2012, Romney would have become President, although he lost the popular vote by over 5 million votes.
• Pass state laws to prohibit ‘rogue’ electors from casting such rogue votes
• Abolish the Electoral College altogether and decide the election on the popular vote. The problem with this is that it would encourage a multi candidate election with winner gaining maybe only 35-40% of the votes

Question 43

Explain why the EC should be reformed

Answer 43

The Electoral College supresses the popular will. It allows candidates to win the presidency despite winning a minority of the vote across the country. Bush won with 48% but Gore had 48.4%
Presence of faithless/rogue electors; Barbara Lett Simmons – who abstained from voting due to her protest in the lack of congressional representation for Washington DC (basically no representation)
Rogue electors however, whilst existing have never affected the outcome of an election
It leads to some votes counting more than others(having a greater value)
The number of electors allocated to each state is based on each state’s representation in Congress.
Each state has two senators and a number of House representatives. Smaller states are overrepresented in the Electoral College.
2012: the six least populous states had the same number of Electoral College votes as Ohio (which is three times larger than the combined population of the 6 states. A vote in Ohio carried less than 1/3 of the weight of a vote in one of the six smallest states, making the Electoral College unfair, unrepresentative and undemocratic
It gives undue prominence to a small number of states; all states apart from Maine and Nebraska award their Electoral College votes as ‘winner takes all’ where the majority of states can be relied on to vote a particular party’s candidate
Alaska invariably Republican
Minnesota staunchly Democrat
Outcome is decided by swing states.
Obama and Romney spent $100 million on TV advertising for the crucial swing state Ohio whilst no money was spent in California as it has been a Blue state since 1988.
Due to the Electoral College, candidates are able to effectively ignore a majority of states in their campaign by focussing solely on the swing states that make a difference to advertise or address key issues in
It is an unnecessary anachronism. Under the 17thAmendment, each senator may be elected directly by its voters. These changes affirm the importance of the people being able to vote directly for their representatives in the federal government

Question 44

Explain why the EC should remain

Answer 44

The popular will almost always prevails. The current system delivers an Electoral College win for the candidate who wins the popular vote substantially.
Obama has done, 51% in 2008, 47% in 2012
The Electoral College ensures that the candidate with the broadest support across states will win;
2000:
Bush won 29 states; Al Gore won 21 states
Rogue electors are theoretically possible but rare; many states have laws put in place to deal with them and ensure they are representative of the people.
26 states have passed legislation requiring electors to vote in accordance to the wish of their state voters
The Electoral College provides decisive resultsthrough incentivising the two party system, providing voters with a clear choice. President would have had to gain 50% or more and have a strong mandate to govern for.

Both a plurality state level and majority level is achieved through the current system.
Third parties will find attaining high levels of support difficult.

A national popular vote would make it easy for third party candidates to pick up votes; they’d be unlikely to win but would deny the winning candidate an absolute majority of popular votes
It is the Electoral College that allows states to choose a President not just a narrow majority of the overall population. Changing the Electoral College to a popular vote would remove one of the major constitutional planks protecting the rights of states. Arguing that a federal system is undemocratic fundamentally undermines the USA’s historical democracy. Representation is broadly proportional but its biggest advantage is giving the smaller states a voice, as the Founding Fathers wanted, forming Federalism. In 2012, New Hampshire Iowa and Nevada were the three of the key nine swing states receiving attention despite their low populations.
Cohesiveness; the Electoral College requires a president to win votes from a variety of states, allowing them to govern with the majority of interests of all Americans, whereas a national popular vote would allow the big urban states to impose a president on the rest of the country.
Obama had to win the big states like Ohio and Michigan but still had to win Nevada and Colorado to win the Electoral College. This increases the legitimacy when negotiating with Congress over legislation.

Question 45

How does party affiliation affect voting behaviour?

Answer 45

The popular will almost always prevails. The current system delivers an Electoral College win for the candidate who wins the popular vote substantially.
Obama has done, 51% in 2008, 47% in 2012
The Electoral College ensures that the candidate with the broadest support across states will win;
2000:
Bush won 29 states; Al Gore won 21 states
Rogue electors are theoretically possible but rare; many states have laws put in place to deal with them and ensure they are representative of the people.
26 states have passed legislation requiring electors to vote in accordance to the wish of their state voters
The Electoral College provides decisive resultsthrough incentivising the two party system, providing voters with a clear choice. President would have had to gain 50% or more and have a strong mandate to govern for.

Both a plurality state level and majority level is achieved through the current system.
Third parties will find attaining high levels of support difficult.

A national popular vote would make it easy for third party candidates to pick up votes; they’d be unlikely to win but would deny the winning candidate an absolute majority of popular votes
It is the Electoral College that allows states to choose a President not just a narrow majority of the overall population. Changing the Electoral College to a popular vote would remove one of the major constitutional planks protecting the rights of states. Arguing that a federal system is undemocratic fundamentally undermines the USA’s historical democracy. Representation is broadly proportional but its biggest advantage is giving the smaller states a voice, as the Founding Fathers wanted, forming Federalism. In 2012, New Hampshire Iowa and Nevada were the three of the key nine swing states receiving attention despite their low populations.
Cohesiveness; the Electoral College requires a president to win votes from a variety of states, allowing them to govern with the majority of interests of all Americans, whereas a national popular vote would allow the big urban states to impose a president on the rest of the country.
Obama had to win the big states like Ohio and Michigan but still had to win Nevada and Colorado to win the Electoral College. This increases the legitimacy when negotiating with Congress over legislation.

Question 46

How does gender affect voting behaviour?

Answer 46

o Women are more likely to be registered than men
o Women tend to turn out in higher numbers on election day than men
o In recent elections, men tend to be more supportive of Republican candidates while women tend to support the democrats, 2012: Men split 52-45% for Romney, while women split 55-44% for Obama, the gender gap
o In presidential elections between 1964 and 2012 women were more supportive than men of the Democrats in 12 out of 13 elections, e.g. Lily Ledbetter fair pay act 2009
o Women are more likely to be registered Democrats than registered Republicans
o Reasons thought to be derived from party positioning on major policy areas:
 Abortion- Democrats tend to pro-choice, Republicans pro-life
 Defence-women tend to oppose capital punishment; the democrats position
 Gun control-women tend to support this; another democrat position
 Women’s rights; Democrats supported the Equal Rights Amendment; Republicans tended to oppose it
o So to win elections the Republicans are always looking for ways to appeal more to women voters, while Democrats are trying to attract more male voters, because more women are registered than men, a larger turnout is better for the Democrats
o Obama targeted women through the Better Equal Pay Act and through the Democrats telling women that the Republicans would restrict access to contraception

Question 47

How do race and religion affect voting behaviour?

Answer 47

• African Americans
o Make up 10% of the US electorate have since the 1960’s given solid support to the Democrat party
o Traditionally the Republicans-‘the party of Lincoln’-had thought the black vote as theirs following emancipation
o That changed: Democrat FDR’s new Deal helped out of work poor African Americans in the 1930s; Democrats JFK and LBJ got Congress to pass civil rights laws that protected the rights of African Americans
o In the 9 presidential elections between 1980 and 2012, African Americans never gave less than 83% support to the Democrats, in 2012 this was 93%
o Pull:
 Democratic presidents were responsible for the civil rights and anti-poverty programs of the 60s and in large part for the affirmative action programs of the 60s and 70s
 Black people, on average, have lower household incomes than white people and therefore attracted to policies such as Obamacare and greater levels of federal spending which tend to help those on lower incomes
 The federal government is a significant employer of black voters (20% of blacks employed by government), and jobs are more likely to be protected under a Democratic administration.
o Push:
 In the 2000 presidential election in Florida, 1 million black votes didn’t count
 Gingrich described the party as ‘not racist’ but ‘less tolerant’
 In the 1960s the Republican party, by default, became the anti-civil rights party
• Hispanics
o A numerically growing group, their importance increasing at each election
o Cuban-Americans, especially those in South Florida have tended to support republican candidates, other Hispanic groups, such as those in California and New Mexico have tended to support Democrats
o In the 200 and 2004 elections, the Republicans were seen courting the Hispanic vote, in 1996 only 20% of Hispanic voters voted for Republican Bob Dole, by 2004 43% of them voted for Bush, this fell to 27% for Romney in 2012
• Religion
o Protestants tend to vote Republican, Clinton didn’t win majority of their votes in 1992 or 1996, Bush 45-34% in 1992, Dole 47-43% in 1996, also in favour of Bush Jr, McCain and Romney
o Catholic voters tend to vote Democrat, though not as strongly as they used to, gave Clinton 54-37% in 1992 and 42-37 in 1996, Democrats pro-choice stance on abortion can be problematic, Bush won 52-47 in 2004, Obama won 50-48 in 2012
o Jewish voters tend to vote Democrat pretty solidly, Clinton got 78% in both 1992 and 1996, majority to every Democrat since WW2, 2000 gave 79% to Gore-Lieberman (an Orthodox Jew)

Question 48

How do wealth, geography and policies influence voting behaviour?

Answer 48

• Wealth
o 1992 and 1996 Clinton had his highest support among those earning under $15,000 a year, his lowest support those earning over $100,000
o Vice versa for their Republicans, pattern repeated in 2004, with Kerry winning 63% of the poorest voters but 41% of the richest, Bush won only 38% of the poorest voters but 58% of the wealthiest
o 2008 Obama won a majority among both the very poor 73% and the very rich 52%, Romney had a 13% lead on those earning over $250,000 a year
• Geography
o Northeast tends to support the Democrats, regions biggest cities gave Clinton his highest level of Support in any region in both 1992 and 1996, likewise for Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008, bad for Democrats, Demographically this area is in decline
o From the end of the Civil War in the 1860s until the 1960s, the South was described as the ‘solid south’-voting solidly for the Democratic Party, but from 1970 the Solid South has collapsed, voted for Bush, Dole, Bush and McCain, in 2008 the South was the only region to vote Republican, strength in the South is good as this is a growing region
o West tends to support Democrats, California, Oregon and Washington vote solidly for Clinton, although green part Ralph Nader nibbled away at Gore’s majority in the Pacific Northwest in 2000, Kerry won all three west coast states in 2004, as did Obama in 2008 and 2012
o The Midwest is the battleground in modern elections, 2008 Obama won the Midwest 54-44% similar to the national vote, today’s presidential elections are largely won and lost in Michigan and Ohio, Obama won both states in both his elections, Ohio has now vote for the winner in every election since 1964
• Policies
o In 2000, the four issues most frequently mentioned by voters as those which mattered were: the economy and jobs; education; social security; taxes. But voters preferred Al Gore’s position on the first three, only on taxes did Bus have a majority who preferred his policies, but it was 80-17%
o 2004 the four main issues were: moral values, the economy/jobs, terrorism and Iraq. When asked which mattered most, 22% said moral values, 20% said the economy/jobs, 19% terrorism and 15% Iraq
o 2008 63% voters in exit polls said that the economy was the most important issue, secondly Iraq only 10%, among the 63% of voters who identified the economy as the most important issue, Obama beat McCain 53-44%
o 2012, 59% voters said the economy was the most important issue which was what Obama’s campaign was about, Romney’s issue of healthcare was named the most important by only 18%, candidates need to focus on what is important

Question 49

What does a typical voter look like?

Answer 49

• The old Democrat ‘New Deal Coalition’ has weakened – urban workers, racial minorities, farmers, southerners and liberals
• During the 1990s Bill Clinton tried to move the Democratic Party way from its old ‘tax and spend’ liberal base to a more centrist ‘third way’
• The Democrats have lost significant support among southern whites and have a problem attracting male voters, but they are still strong in the northeast
• The Republicans have experienced difficulties attracting women voters and those of racial minorities but they are strong among white, evangelical Christian and in the so called ‘sun belt’ states.
• Typical Democrat voting blocs, blue collar, unionised workers; urban dwellers’ West and Northeast; Catholic; Jewish; racial minority, possibly black or Hispanic, female; liberal; less wealthy; less well educated.
• Typical Republican voting blocs: white collar, professional workers; suburban and rural; Sun Belt; Protestant; especially evangelical; white; male; conservative; wealthy; college educated.

Question 50

Why did Obama win in 2012?

Answer 50

o 22 out of 31 presidents have run for re-election have won. This is because presidents have a record, although this can be attacked, and tend to have the united backing of their party- Obama ran in the primaries unopposed.
• Early advantage
o Romney was fighting in the primaries till May, whereas Obama was not and launched early attacks on Romney through negative ads in swing states. In the third week of July, the Obama campaign had spent $1.2m on ads attacking Romney turning the election into a referendum on Obama’s economic stewardship to one on Romney’s character.
• Better campaign
o By spring Obama had more field offices open than all his potential Republican rivals combined. This was critical in swing state, and led to greater voter registration of groups that would vote for Obama. For example, the African American share of the vote rose from 11% in 2008 to 15% in 2012.
• Romney himself
o Lacked common touch and was unable to appeal to ordinary Americans, especially blue collar workers. He also had a number of verbal gaffes, such as the 47% remark. Also, Romney had to move right to win the primary and found it difficult to convincingly move back to the centre, meaning he often contradicted himself - nicknamed ‘Romnesia’ by the Obama campaign.
• Clinton and Bush effects
o Clinton made persuasive endorsements of Obama, his appearance in TV ads and his speech at the Democratic convention particularly effective.
o A poll found that 53% of people blamed Bush for the economic problems, and only 38% said Obama was the problem. And of those 53%, 85% voted for Obama on election day.
• October surprise
o Hurricane Sandy not only stopped Romney’s post debate momentum but took him out the headlines for 3 days. Obama, however, played his role of comforter and commander-in-chief to great effect. Even Republican Chris Christie described Obama’s actions as ‘outstanding’. Exit polls found that of the 64% who said the President’s handling of the situation was a factor in voting, 62% voted for Obama.

Question 51

How has Obama upheld Democratic values?

Answer 51

o Economic intervention. Most notably the 2009 stimulus bill which pumped $800bn into the economy
o Welfare provision. Affordable Care Act
o Rights of women. Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act - to promote equal pay between genders
o LGBT rights. Obama ended ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell policy’ allowing homosexuals to openly be part of the military. This pushed LGBT rights to the forefront of the national agenda, and may have contributed to Obergefell
o Minority rights. Fair Sentencing Act reduced the disparity between sentencing differences between the two, as African Americans had suffered greater
o Environmental protection. Support for ‘cap and trade’ legislation though this failed
o Dovish foreign policy
o Committed to talks without ‘preconditions’ with Iran
o ‘Reset’ in relationship with Russia
o ‘Leading from behind’ in Libya
o Thawing of relationships with Cuba

Question 52

How has Obama not upheld Democratic values

Answer 52

o Foreign policy. More ‘hawkish’ than ‘dovish’
o Afghanistan ‘surge’ in 2010
o Libya airstrikes 2011
o Retention of indefinite detention, Guantanamo bay still open
o Use of drones and killing of american citizen, Anwar Al-Awlaki - the first time an American citizen was targeted and killed by the US
o Organised labour. Lukewarm relationship e.g. failure to push Employer Free Choice Act which subsequently died in Congress.
o Free trade. Promotes free trade agreements e.g. TTIP

Question 53

Give an overview of Congressional elections

Answer 53

• Congressional elections
o Occur every 2 years when the whole of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate are elected
o Either coincide with the Presidential election or occur midway through the Presidential term (mid-terms)
• Article 1 of the Constitution states that to be eligible to be a member of Congress, one must fulfil a certain requirements regarding age, citizenship and residency. To be a member of the House of Representatives:
o Be at least 25
o Have been a US citizen for at least 7 years
o Be a resident of the state your congressional district is in
• Some states have a locality rule which means that House members must be residents of the district they represent
• To be a member of the Senate on must:
o Be at least 30 years of age
o Have been a US citizen for at least 9 years
o Be a resident of the state your represent

Question 54

Explain trends in Congressional voting behaviour

Answer 54

Primaries
• Candidates for Congressional elections must first secure the nomination of their party. As virtually all 535 members of Congress are either Democrats or Republicans, this means securing the nomination of one of the two major parties through the Democratic or Republican congressional primary. Sometimes even an incumbent House member or Senator might be challenged for the nomination in the upcoming election and therefore will have to enter the primary. Defeat for incumbents in the primary is unusual. Between 1992 and 2012 – 11 election cycles – only 62 House members and 8 Senators were defeated in Congressional primaries.
Coat-tails effect
• The coat tails effect is the effect of a strong candidate for a part at the top of the ticket (president, state governor) helping congressional candidates of the same party to get elected at the same time. The coat tails effect had not been evident in elections for over two decades. In 1980, the Republican candidate Ronald Reagan helped the Republicans gain 33 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate. Then in 2008, Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama helped the Democrats gain 21 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate, leading some commentators to say that Obama was the first president since Reagan to have genuine coat-tails.
Split Ticket voting
• Split ticket voting is the practice of voting for candidates of two or more parties for different offices at the same time. The opposite – voting for candidates of the same party for different offices at the same election – is called straight ticket voting. In 2012, just 26 Congressional districts (under 6% of the total) voted differently in the Presidential and House elections. In 17 districts, Obama won the presidential race but the Republican won the House race; 9 districts voted Romney for President but voted Democrat in the House race.
• Split ticket voting in Congressional elections which coincide with the Presidential election may result in divided government – one party controlling the white house, while the other party controls the two houses of Congress. This occurred in 1996, when voters re-elected Democrat Bill Clinton but also elected Republican majorities in the House and the Senate. In the 40 years between 1969 and 2009, the USA had divided government for 22 years, including the last 6 years of Clinton’s presidency (1995-2001) and the last 2 years of George W Bush’s (2007-2009).

Question 55

What are the advantages of split ticket voting?

Answer 55

The electorate has moved beyond party labels; aside the party, other issues have become of critical cause for voting preference – for example a stance on a controversial issue.
Voters may feel compelled to opt for an incumbent from a challenging party rather than an untested challenger from the same party.
Used to achieve a more moderate policy agenda, attempting to avoid ideological extremes
Voters could want a more liberal leaning Congress at the same time as a conservative presidency – however, this assumes a high level of voter political knowledge.
Allows candidates to move away from official party positions to get support from groups who might not otherwise vote for them.

Maine votes Democrat in Presidential elections, yet has Republican Senator Collins. Collins isn’t as conservative as the right wing of the party who oppose gay marriage and abortion.
15 states have the ballot format that discourages split ticket voting through the ballot format which allows them to provide one provincial cross to select candidates of the same party. Split ticket voting is more democratic and encouraged

Question 56

Explain the decline of split ticket voting

Answer 56

6% voted split in 2012
17 districts won by OBAMA were won by Republican Congressional candidates; 9 won by Romney were held by Democrat Congressional candidates. Greater voter homogeneity at regional level – purer Red/Blue states.
Split tickets are due to the polarisation of the two parties
Decline of split tickets are due to internal discrepancies between two parties – the electorate are making decisions on which are more party centric rather than candidate centric
People before the Party:
Calls for the removal of straight ticket voting option, bill in the House of Representatives; ensuring split tickets provide a more moderate political climate.

Question 57

Assess the power of incumbency

Answer 57

• An incumbent is the House member or Senator who currently holds the seat. Congressional elections show high levels of support for incumbents or, there are high rates of re-election in Congressional elections. In the House, re-election rates have exceeded 90% in 9/12 of the last Congressional elections, although 2012 and 2012 were two of the three when this did not occur. In the same period (1990-2012), re-election rate s in the Senate ranged from 96% in 2004 to 79% in 2006.
o Money. Incumbents can easier raise money as they’re proven winners. E.g. in the Senate the average raised by an incumbent is $12m but only $2 for a challenger. Donors want to give money to proven winners who can actually do something, incumbents can point to pork
o Pork barrel spending. The wasteful spending of money to essentially buy votes from the electorate e.g. most famous example is the ‘Bridge to Nowhere’ in Alaska sponsored by Republican governor
o Resources. Incumbents have offices and staff, there’s a team of people who can keep the up to date. A member of Congress also has access to the congressional library for detailed information, the Franking Privilege (free post) etc. which all helps.
o Redistricting. The state legislature can draw the lines for districts, though in some states there’s an independent commission. Nevertheless, you can rely on party gerrymandering if they control the state legislature e.g. Illinois 4

Question 58

Explain the decline in competitive races in House elections

Answer 58

• Between 1992 and 2004, there was a significant trend towards fewer genuinely competitive seats in elections to the House of Representatives. A competitive set is one that was won by the incumbent by less than 10 percentage points. In 1992 there were 111 such seats in the House. By 2004, the figure had fallen to just 31. In other words, following the 2004 Congressional elections, 404 out of the 435 House members – or just less than 93% - were in safe seats. But the 2006, 2008 and 2010 Congressional elections saw increases in the number of Competitive House races.
• There are two important consequences when House seats become uncompetitive. First, incumbents in sage seats tend to vote in the House that pleases only voters from their own party. This leads to an increase in partisanship and a decrease in compromise and cross-party cooperation. Secondly, House members in safe seats have more to fear from an intra-party challenge in a primary than from an inter-party challenge in the general election. Hence the primary becomes the real political battleground and winning the primary is tantamount to winning re-election.

Question 59

Explain how the President’s party has tended to lose seats in midterm elections

Answer 59

• The mid-term elections are those that occur mid-way through a president’s term, such as those held in 2010. In the 96 year period since the Senate was first directly elected (1914-2010), the President’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House and just 4 seats in the Senate in mid-term elections. In 2010, the Democrat party lost 63 House seats and 6 in the Senate. During this 96 year period, on only two occasions – 1934 and 2002 – has the President’s party gained seats in both Houses in the mid-term elections. In 2002, Bush’s Republicans gained five House seats and two Senate seats, largely as a result of the events of 9/11 and Bush’s war on terror

Question 60

Explain propositions

Answer 60

• A proposition, more commonly referred to as an initiative in the USA, is a mechanism by which citizens of a state can place proposed laws, and in some states proposed constitutional amendments on the state ballot, and is provided for by 24 states
• There are two types:
o Direct propositions: proposal that qualify go directly on the ballot
o Indirect propositions: proposals are submitted to the state legislature, which decided on further action
• There are few general rules of thumb regarding getting propositions on the state ballot paper. A proposed proposition must be:
o Filed with a designated state official
o Reviewed for conformance with state legal requirements
o Given a formal title and brief summary for inclusion on the ballot paper
o Circulated to gain the required number of signatures from registered voters
o Submitted to state officials for verification of signatures
• Recent examples of state propositions are:
o A ban on same sex marriage approved in seven states including Virginia in 2006 and California in 2008; same sex marriage approved in Maryland, Maine and Washington state in 2012
o An increase in the state minimum wage level approved in six states including Missouri and Montana in 2006
• Advantages:
o They provide a way of enacting reforms on controversial issues that state legislatures are often unwilling or unable to act upon
o They increase the responsiveness and accountability of state legislatures
o They can help increase voter turnout
o They increase citizen interest in state issues and may also encourage pressure group membership
o Provides a way of enacting reforms on controversial mattesr that state legislatures are unwilling to act on e.g. medical marijuana
o Can increase the responsiveness of state legislatures and increase state legislators performance and accountability
o Can increase voter turnout e.g. Ohio ban on same-sex marriage ballot. Especially with controversial matters
o May increase citizen interest in state issues and encourage other forms of participation e.g. joining a pressure group
• Disadvantages:
o Propositions lack flexibility. Once drafted, it can’t be amended until adopted unlike normal legislation which is amended throughout. The proposition process lacks the benefits of the legislative process- debate, compromise, hearings, public input and amendment.
o Propositions are vulnerable to manipulation by special interests- high spending and media advertisements featuring simplistic or misleading arguments

Question 61

What are the advantages of propositions?

Answer 61

A method of enacting reforms on controversial issues that state legislatures are often unwilling or able to act on
To increase the responsiveness and accountability of state legislatures/legislators
Controversial issues being on the ballot can be used to increase voter turnout: Ohio 2004, same-sex marriage ban which drew in large numbers of conservative Republican voters, who voted in Bush
Propositions increase citizen interest in issues and encourage other forms of political participation (pressure groups)
Promotes a pluralist democracy – providing the greatest opportunity for the purest form of direct democracy.
Reinforces the idea of federalism

Question 62

What are the disadvantages of propositions?

Answer 62

The lack of flexibility within the legislative process; once a measure is drafted and put on the ballot, it cannot be changed after it has been adopted.
Propositions lack the benefits of the opportunity of amendment – they are set in stone from the beginning.
Propositions are vulnerable to the manipulation by interest/pressure groups. For example, a proposition on gun control would be severely lobbied by the National Rifles Association
Subjected to the tyranny of the majority as propositions require a majority to be passed – silencing of the minority.
Expensive to have rejected proposals still featuring on the ballot paper
Causes voter apathy; too frequent occasions where the public are asked to participate politically.
Politically uneducated people have the power of important decisions

Question 63

Explain referendums

Answer 63

• A Referendum is an electoral device, available in all 50 states, by which voters can effectively veto a bill passed by the State legislature. A number of states require that changes to the state constitution must be approved by a state wide referendum. In other states, changes in state tax must be approved in this way.
• In 24 states there is provision for a popular referendum. In these states, such as Alaska and New Mexico, if the state legislature passes a law that voters do not approve of, they may gather signatures to demand a referendum on the law. Usually there is a 90 day period after the law is passed during which the petitioning must take place. If voters reject the law in the ensuing referendum, the law is null and void – a kind of popular veto.

Question 64

Explain recall elections

Answer 64

• A recall election is a procedure that enables voters in a state to remove an elected official from office before their term has expired. There are 19 states that make provision for recall elections. The most recent and high profile recall election was of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker in June 2012, which Walker won 53-45%.

Question 65

What is the impact of Republicans currently holding the Senate?

Answer 65

• Mitch McConnell becomes majority leader; the day to day running of the Chamber falls to him. He will set the agenda, decide which bills come to the floor and manage the floor debate to advance the party’s agenda.
• Republicans can take control on committee chairmanships, giving them significant authority to launch investigations, shape the policy debate in the Capitol.
• This also means partisan gridlock for Obama. The current Congress has passed the least bills in history; this is not going to improve after these elections. Obama will not pass legislation into law, as he can simply veto bills he disagrees with. Obama becomes a lame duck president.
• Republicans made younger, more diverse gains to the legislative body that have been historically dominated by older white men.
o First Haitain African American – Mia Love defeated her Democrat opponent Doug Owns
o Joni Ernst, Iraq war veteran became the first woman to represent Iowa in the Upper Chamber
o West Virginia, Shelly Moore Capito – first female Senator; first GOP Senator in 56 years.
o Youngest Senator, Elise Stefanik, youngest woman elected to Congress.
o Tim Scott, first GOP Senator to be elected by popular vote in the South since the Reconstruction era.

Question 66

Explain the coattails and reverse coattails effects

Answer 66

Coattails effect – the effect of strong candidates for a party at the top of the ticket (ballot) helping other candidates of the same party get elected at the same time. Democrats are distancing themselves from Obama, illustrating the positives and benefits that can be made from the coattails effect
Reverse coattails effect – in 2000, the Republicans lost seats in both Houses (including 4 in the Senate) but Bush won the presidential race. Midterms were a reverse of the typical expectations of the midterms coattails effect as the Republicans won both the House and the Senate

Question 67

Give some examples of initiatives in recent years

Answer 67

Initiatives from 2012
(1) Florida abortion initiative. This was known as amendment 6 AKA Florida abortion amendment. It was on November 6 2012 state as a legislatively-referred constitutional amendment, where it was defeated. The proposed measure would have prohibited the use of public funds for abortions except as required by federal law and to save the mother’s life. Also, it meant that the state constitution cannot be interpreted to include broader rights to abortion than those contained in the United States Constitution. The proposed measure required 60 percent voter approval for adoption. 44.9% said yes.

(2) Minnesota same- sex marriage initiative. Minnesota as a legislatively-referred constitutional amendment, where it was defeated. The measure would have defined marriage in the Minnesota Constitution as between one man and one woman in the state. 52.56% said no. Aftermath - the legislature renewed a push to repeal the state’s existing ban on same-sex marriage. On May 14, 2013, the governor signed into law a bill that allowed same-sex couples to officially marry beginning in August.
(3) California death penalty initiative. Proposition 34, was on the November 6, 2012 ballot in California as an initiated state statute, where it was defeated. If the state’s voters had approved it, Proposition 34 would have eliminated the death penalty in California and replaced it with life in prison without the possibility of parole. It required persons found guilty of murder to work while in prison, with their wages to be applied to any victim restitution fines or orders against them. While Proposition 34 was defeated in 2012, Judge Cormac J. Carney invalidated the state’s death penalty on July 16, 2014. 52% said no.
Initiatives for 2014
2014 has an unusually low number of state wide ballot measures - 158. The last time the number of state wide ballot measures dipped below 160 was in 1988.
South Dakota (1) Minimum wage — RESULT: Passed: South Dakota currently has a minimum wage of $7.25. Measure 18 would would raise it to $8.50 per hour in 2015. In addition, it would raise the minimum wage for tipped workers (such as waiters) from $2.13 to $4.25 per hour.
Alaska. Marijuana Legalization — RESULT: Passed: Ballot Measure 2 would allow adults 21 and older to possess up to one ounce of pot and maintain six marijuana plants. The measure would legalize production and sales, which the Alcoholic Beverage Control Board — or a Marijuana Control Board, if one is created — would regulate. The measure would also tax marijuana at the point of sale at $50 per ounce.
Minimum wage — PROJECTED RESULT: Passed: Ballot Measure 3 would bump the state’s minimum wage from its current $7.75 to $8.75 in 2015, then $9.75 per hour in 2016. After that, it would be adjusted for inflation.
Oregon. Marijuana Legalization — RESULT: Passed: Measure 91, would allow adults 21 and older to possess up to eight ounces and four plants of marijuana. It would also legalize production and sales, which the Oregon Liquor Control Commission would regulate. The measure would also tax marijuana at the point of sale at $35 per ounce, with the revenue set aside for enforcement and education programs.
GMO-labelling Initiative — RESULT: Defeated: Oregon’s Proposition 92 would have required packaged foods with genetically modified ingredients to include the words “genetically engineered” on the front or back of the product “clearly and conspicuously.”

Question 68

Explain the formal requirements for presidency

Answer 68

 Be a natural born US citizen
 Be at least 35 years of age
 Have been a resident in the USA for at least 14 years

Question 69

Explain the informal requirements for presidency

Answer 69

 Political experience. Being in Congress is useful but being state governor is a better launching pad as this is also an executive role e.g. 9/17 initial Republican presidential candidates are state governors Kasich – Ohio. Trump the frontrunner despite no political experience though. However, more experienced Clinton defeated in 2008 by Obama. Poor records can hold a candidate back e.g. Romney opposed Obamacare but introduced a similar ‘Romneycare’ in Massachusetts
• HOWEVER: Clinton, 8 yrars first lady and 7 years in senate was defeated by candidate with the lease experience, Barack Obama who had been in the senate for just 3 years at the start of the election year.
 Major party endorsement. Ross Perot won 19% in 1992 as an independent but didn’t win any states
 Effective organisation. Can’t use parties organisation during primaries so must create their own. Creation of effective organisation is important in winning the nomination e.g. Obama had a superior organisation than Clinton, use of internet more engaging. Effective organisation also important in presidency race e.g. Obama’s Narwhal project was far more effective than Romney’s Orca project.
 Personal Characteristics. All presidential candidates for major parties have been white males. Even by January 2013 – only 20 women out of 100 members in US Senate and only one African American. All vice-presidents have been white males. But 2008 = Obama elected first black pres.
 - Advantage to be married – Has only been one bachelor president – James Buchanan elected 1857. It was said that scandal involving marital infidelity could rule out a possible candidate (Senator Gary Hart pilled out of 1988 nomination race after press revealed pictures of him with a scantily-clad model named Donna Rice on a yacht called monkey business). but Bill Clinton managed to secure Democratic Party’s nomination in 1992 despite allegations surrounding Gennifer Flowers which surfaced. John McCain 2008 had divorced his wife in 1980 and married his current
 Ability to raise large sums of money. Crucial to a successful bid for the presidency. Only billionaire candidates such as Ross Perot (1992) and Steve Forbes (1996 and 2000) have been able to finance their campaigns from their own pockets. President Obama raised a $125.2 million in 2011 and Romney raised $56.1million. In the first 3 months of 2012, Obama raised a further $66.4 million and Romney a further $30.2 million

 Oratical skills and being telegenic. ‘Im no good at television’ Democratic candidate Walter Mondale complained in 1984. Republican Senator Phil Gramm wen even further in 1996 declaring ‘I’m too ugly to be president’ Bill CLnton’s oratical skills and his telegenic looks were advantages that greatly contributed to his victories in 1992 and 1996. Same with Obama.
 Sound and relevant policies. A candidate must have policies that are both practical and relevant.