Unit 2 Flashcards
What is Hindsight Bias?
The tendency to believe that after learning an outcome that one would have foreseen it
Provide an example of hindsight bias?
Example: If you tell people that separation will strengthen romantic attraction, people will find it unsurprising, while the opposite is also true
What is the cause of overconfidence?
Results from our bias to seek information that confirms our judgements
What is critical thinking?
Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Instead, it examines assumptions, assesses the source, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions
Provide an example of critical thinking?
When critical thinkers look at global warming, they ask questions and observe the evidence and and see if it makes sense
What is the scientific method?
Process for evaluating ideas with observation and analysis
What is a theory?
Explains behaviors or events by offering ideas that organize that we have observed.
What is a hypothesis?
A testable prediction, often implied by a theory.
- (A good theory is what produces these predictions that can be tested)
How can theories produce biased results?
EX: Having theories that sleep can improve memory can bias the results. We may perceive that sleepy people’s comments are less insightful, when in reality this may not be the result of a poor sleep
What is an operational definition?
A carefully worded statement of the exact procedures/operations used in a research study. Ensures that there is little discrepancy/human error from experiment to experiment so that people can replicate it
What is replication?
repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants to see if the basic finding extends to those circumstances/participants
What are case studies?
Used to examine an individual or group in depth in the hope of revealing things true of all of us; Used to observe and describe behavior;
Drawback: individual cases may be misleading if the individual is atypical, leading to false conclusions
What is Naturalistic Observation?
Watching and recording the natural behavior of many individuals
-Example: watching chimpanzee societies in the jungle
-Does’t explain behavior, but instead describes it
-Drawback: Problematic because of the Hawthorne effect (people’s behaviors change when they know they are being observed)
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What are Surveys?
- Finding out the attitudes or behaviors of a group, by questioning a representative, random sample of the group
- Drawbacks: Answers depend on the way questions are worded and which respondents are chosen
- A random sample must try to be chosen to fairly represent an entire population
- Usually people who take the time to respond are passionate about it
What is a correlation coefficient?
Statistical index of the relationship between two variables
- Helps figure out how closely two things vary together
- They typically range from -1.0 to +1.0, and reveal the extent to which things relate.
- (Closer to -1.0 or +1.0 means the stronger the correlation)
What is a scatterplot?
Graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables. Slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter indicates stronger correlation)
What do statistics ultimately help us do?
Statistics help observe what the naked eye can miss
-Often they show things that we would not be able to pick up on without the representation
No matter how strong the relationship between two variables is in a correlation, this does not prove that _____________________________________
-In other words, association does not prove ___________-
One variable directly causes the other; Causation
What is an illusory correlation?
The perception of a relationship where no correlation exists
-Ex: We usually remember the occurrence of two such events in sequence, like an unlikely call followed by the call, than a moment when the call does not follow this premonition
What is experimentation?
- Experiments enable researchers to isolate the effects of one or more variables by manipulating the variables of interest and holding constant other variables
- Deciphers whether a correlation is in fact a cause-effect