UK MACRO ECONOMY STATS Flashcards
UK Annual Growth Rate
4.17%
But from low base- worst recession in 300 yrs
UK Quarterly Growth Rate (Q4 2022)
0.17%
Annual Growth Forecast 2023
-0.2%
Negative Output Gap (Q3 2023 OBR)
-1.6% ~ actual gdp as a % of potential gdp
Had positive output gap for last couple years
GDP per Capita
£33,000
Total GDP and breakdown per sector
Services 79%
Manufacturing 14%
Construction 6%
Agriculture 1%
Unemployment Rate
3.8% ~ strong labour market
BUT: lagging figure, expected to peak at 4.5%
UK Unemployment Rate
3.8%
BUT- expected to peak at 4.5% since lagging figure
What is the Economic Inactivity Rate
(Those who are of working age 16-64 not willing to work, not physically able, not seeking work)
21.4% - driven by 50s and 60s leaving during COVID
Youth Unemployment
10.8%
Peaked at 14.5% during COVID
Long Term Unemployment
1%
Annual Wage Growth
6.6%
Consumer Confidence
Very Low … But
Fragile signs of recovery
Job Vacancies
Record High; higher than unemployed( v tight)
But falling as firms are less willing to high due to waning demand ~ creating looser labour market
CPI Inflation Rate
10.1% ~ 7th Consecutive Month of double digit inflation
Supply side of high gas, wage growth, weak pound and food inflation
Forecasts say half by later in year
Core Inflation ~ CPI w/o food and energy (price volatile items)
6.2%
Producer Price Inflation
(Wholesale Price Inflation)
8.7% - indicator of rising input costs and future CPI inflation rises
For 2 years it is higher than CPI but lower means CPI could fall
Inflation Expectations - what households think inflation will be over the next 12 months
5.4%
Food Price Inflation
19.1%
Current Account Deficit
-5.1% of GDP
forecast to reach -6.1% of GDP- record figure
Productivity and Investment
Both stagnated since Brexit
Productivity 20% below the avg of the rest of the G7 and 25% below pre-2008 trend
Exchange Rate
Weak
£1 = $1.24
£1 = 1.12 Euros
UK is net importer of raw materials, capital machinery, semi-finished goods
thus worsens current account position
Drives higher supply-cost inflation
Minimum Wage
£10.42 per hour
Performance of Major Trading Partners - US and Eurozone
Slow growth
