Topic 5-Exchange rates Flashcards
Exchange rate
The value of one currency in terms of another
Factors influencing exchange rate (6 factors)
- Relative interest rates
- Relative inflation rates
- Current account balance
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
- Speculation
Factors influencing exchange rate (explanation) -Relative interest rates
- Relative inflation rates
- Current account balance
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
- Speculation
- higher interests rates>attracts money into its banks from abroad ( cuz of prospect of gaining a higher return). This creates an increased demand for the currency>value^
- higher inflation rates>purchasing power will fall relative to competitors and in LR>Exchange rate decreases
- Deficit=supply for its currency is higher than demand
- High level of FDI will experience an increased demand for currency>appreciate
- Speculation: e.g expected state of the economy, expected change in interest or fear of rising rate of inflation
Effects of a depreciation in the value of a currency
Effects of BOP
- A decrease in the foreign currency price of a countries exports (exports are cheaper&imports more expensive)
- Cheaper exports&more expensive imports>increase competitiveness of countries g&s> improve the current account of the countries BOP
Effects of a depreciation in the value of a currency
Effects on economy
- Lead to an increase in AD>rise in real output and an ^price level
- increased price of imported commodities&raw materials would cause an increase in costs of production>cost-push inflation&demand-pull
- Rise in real output should help reduce unemployment as jobs in export sector^
Evaluation of devaluation (explanation)
The effect of a devaluation will depend on:
1. The elasticity of demand for exports and imports:
2.State of the global
3.Inflation
4. why the currency is being devaluated
- PED=Inelastic fall in price of export>to only a small rise in quantity>value of exports may fall.
Eval: Marshall Lerner condition: If PED>1 then a devaluation will improve the current account - If global economy=in recession>devaluation may not work by boosting demand for exports. If growth is strong>^demand. In boom=likely to worsen inflation
- Effect on inflation will depend on:
-spare capacity in the economy e.g in recession devaluation is unlikely to cause inflation
-Firms may not pass increased import costs onto consumers and would reduce their profit margins in the short-run
4.if due to competitiveness>can restore competitiveness &lead to economic growth. If it is aiming to meet a certain exchange rate>may be inappropriate for economy
Evaluation of devaluation (4 evaluations)
- The elasticity of demand for exports and imports:
- State of the global
- Inflation
- why the currency is being devaluated
Fixed exchange rate
When exchange rates have been set at a particular level in terms of other currencies
Floating exchange rate
The value of a countries currency/ the exchange rate is able to fluctuate freely and is determined by market forces
Devaluation
A process whereby the gov deliberately lower the value of the countries currency relative to another country
Revaluation
A process whereby the gov deliberately raise the value of the countries currency relative to another country