topic 3 stats Flashcards
participation stats
- peaked at 60-65% of population
- decreasing rate generally below 64% –> rate = 0.1% per quarter
- currently 66.7%
- population increase of 176,900 between 2004-08 –> 36% int students
- current 737K migrants ip from 427K before
- COVID = Decrease from 66.5% to 64% in a month (500,000 workers or 85% laid off left labour force)
gig-economy
- 1M aus drive
- (90,000-112,000 Australian workers earning less than minimum wage
increase human capital
- from 2013-22 percentage of population completing high school grew from 77.2% to 86.2%
- 77% of postgraduate degree holders working full-time, compared with 44% without a non-school qualification
ageing population
- older people make 16% of population
- 4.2M
manufacturing to services
- manufacturing industry fell by 4700 (0.5%) workers in last quarter
- services is 85% of jobs
- agriculture fell from 80% to 10%
under employment
- in feb 2024 1.5M aus are working fewer hours than they would like to
- on avg want 12 hrs more
- current 7% (faster increase than U/E)
- underutilisation = 10.7%
RB: low 6% (decrease)
GFC: spike 8%
RRB: decrease 7%
COIVD: increased to 20% (more than U/E)
post covid: decreased to 6% (more than U/E)
u/e
resource boom (2000-08): fell from 8% to average 4.25%
GFC (2008): rose to 5.8% was supposed to reach 8.5% (250,000 jobs lost)
renewed resources boom: fell to 4.9%
slight global uncertainty: rose to 6.4% to 5.6%
COVID: rose to 7.5% expected to rise for 12%
post-COVID: decrease 3.6%
current: 4.1% rising
eg
resources boom: rose to 3-4%
GFC: fell to 1% (one negative quarter -2.5%)
renewed resources boom: rose to more than 3%
slight global uncertainty: fluctuating EG around 3.1%
COVID: overall -1.1% (2 negative quarters -0.3% and 7%)
post COVID: increased to 10%
current: slowing at 1.5%
inf
prior to 1990s: 17-18% peaked at 23.9% in 1951
resources boom: 3.2% per yr with peak 4.35% prior to GFC
GFC: slowed to 1%
renewed resources boom: 2.6% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011
COVID: fell to -0.1% in 2020
post-COVID: peaked at 7.8% in 2022
current: slowed to 3.6%
productivity growth
- averaging 1.2% in past 20 yrs
- increased by 102 index points in 2020
- fell -3.7% in 2022-23 (below long term average)
cash rate
resources boom: 7.25%
GFC: decreased 425 BP to 3%
renewed resources boom: increased by 175 BP to 4.75%
COVID: dropped to 0.1%
post-COVID: hiked rates by 425 BP bt 2022-23 to 4.35%
current: 4.35%
mortgage rates
- increased by 320 basis points
- 1,629,000 mortgage holders (31.4%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’
- 48% of their incomes on mortgage
consumption/savings
- grew steadily throughout the 1990s to more than 68% by 2000
- avg saving rate = 1.2%
resources boom: Consumption averaged 4.5%/S = 0%
GFC: Consumption fell from 6% peak in 2007-08 to -0.1% in 2008-09/S=9%
renewed resources: Consumption rose back to 5%
COVID: consumption fell to a record low of -14%/savings to 20%
post-COVID: Huge consumption increase to 12%/S decrease to 2%
current: consumption has decreased to 0%/savings at 3.2%
productivity driven (1990-2000)
- productvity groth averages 3.2%
- capital deepening 1.5%
exports
RB: Global coal consumption grew by 50% and iron ore consumption grew up 80% –> china 34% of X and $90B (iron ore $50B)
GFC: stable at 20%
RRB: increased to 24% of GDP –> from $110B 2009/10 to $160B in 2011/12
COVID: exports rose by 26% to $593B –> 1.1% increase iron ore to 893M tonnes 2023
CURRENT: $670.9B and 25% of GDP –> coal $142B and iron ore $124B –> china (36 fell to 27% of X) –> BOGS at $23,866
investment
RB: increase form 12.8% 2000 to 16.5% of GDP 2007 –> averaged 5.5% productivity growth (nation averaged 3%)
RRB: $25B annual total $440B
CURRENT: mining investment dropped 60% since 2012 –> FDI in Australia rose from $432.9b to $4,59.8b.
fiscal discretionary spending
- $52B kevin rudd
- Jobkeeper $1500 fortnight
- Jobseeker from $690 to $720 –> 3.5M AUS wages subsidies
wage growth
- averages 4.5% (1990s to 2000)
RB: averaged 4%
GFC: decreased to 2.9%
RRB: rose to 3.8%
COVID: fell frmo 2.5% 2019 to 1.3%
post-COVID: 3.5% increasing
current: 4.2% (inf expt)
disposable income growth
GFC: decrease growth to 0%
RRB: growth increase to 6%
COVID: growth increased from 2% in 2019 to 7%
post-covid: decreased to -4%
current: growth to 0%
exchange rate
RB: increased from 0.51USD in 2001 to 0.96USD in 2008
GFC: Fx rate to 0.64 in october 2008
RRB: similar level as the RB at 0.92
uncertainty (US QE): 1.1
COVID: fell to 0.58 in 2020
post-covid: rose to 0.74 in 2022
current: decreased to 0.65
budgets
COVID: 2020 = -$135B from -85B
2022-23: +$21.9 billion compared with an estimated -$1.5 billion in the 2023–24 Budget
government automatic stabilisers
- corporate tax 30% if more than $50M, 25% in below
- tax free threshold of $18,200 highest at 37%
- Welfare will increase by $19.60 a fortnight for singles and $29.40 for couples every two weeks
- current welfare: $227B and 34% of government expenditure
government reform/spending
- min wage $23.23 increased from $16.87 2014
- retirement age 67
- removal of 2.5% wage cap + $10,000 bonus
- increase eligibility of CCS income up to $80,000 = 90% subsidy
- jobtrainer fund = support 450,000 young people to find jobs
- stage 3 tax cuts increasing tax free threshold to $19,200 –> lowest bracket cut from19-16% –> second lowest 32.5-30% –> 30% bracket increased from $120k to $135k –> 37% bracket increased $10k to $190K
- 2015 pull of $500M subsidies (auto) –> 8000 jobs lost
- $65 billion of investment in renewable