Topic 2 - Part 2: Exchange rates Flashcards
What is an exchange rate?
The price of a country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency
How are exchange rates determined in Aus?
Forces of supply or demand
What rank is Aus in terms of the most traded currency?
5th most traded currency
What % of currency trades is AUD used in
Used in 6.8% of all currency trades
What is the significance of exchange rates?
Enables trade and financial flows (as firms and consumers want to be paid in their own currency) - thus, significant impacts on international competitiveness, trade flows, investment decisions, inflation, and other factors.
What is the difference between a bilateral exchange rate and a trade weighted index
Bilateral exchange rate: Measures the value of a unit of domestic currency relative to another currency
Trade weighted index: Measures the movements in a nation’s currency against a basket of currencies of the nation’s trading partners, weighted according to their importance to the nations trade
This means that the TWI is a more accurate measure of the worth of the AUD
What is the weighting of the Japanese Yen in the TWI from 2017-2022
10.7 (2017) –> 12.5 (2022)
What is the weighting of the USD in the TWI from 2017-2022
10.3 (2017) –> 8.2 (2022)
What is the weighting of the Chinese RMB from 2017 - 2022
27.46 (2017) –> 30.7 (2022)
What is the weighting of the European Euro from 2017-2022?
Stagnated at around 9.7
What is the importance of the TWI?
More accurate and important measure of AUD purchasing power than bilateral rates (which only measure changes against one currency, whereas the TWI measures a whole basket of currencies (that Aus is actually important to) and thus shows the overall value of the AUD). Shows upward and downward movements in the overall value. It is related to changes in Aus BOPs performance over time
What are the limitations of the TWI?
Can be misleading. Weighted according to volumes of trade, regardless of which currencies the contracts are invoiced in. All the currencies are denominated in $US and so the exchange rate of US is the main factor that changes and not the currency of Aus and trading partners. ⅔ of Australian exports and ½ of imports are denominated in $US currency, reflecting that the $US/$AUD exchange rate is far more important than its weight in TWI calculation.
When did Aus shift from a managed flexible peg to a floating exchange rate?
December 1983
What is a floating exchange rate system?
Under this system, the exchange rate is determined by free market forces and not gov intervention. Here, supply and demand establish an equilibrium price for the AUD in terms of another country’s currency
What are the 3 main reasons for switching to a floating ER system?
Most efficient exchange rate mechanism for determining value of currency
Expose the Aus economy to international competitive market pressures → ↑innovation
Pursue more independent and effective monetary policy (to control inflation) in a deregulated financial environment
What is demand for AUD represented by?
Represented by the people who wish to buy the currency
What are the 3 factors affecting demand for AUD?
Size of financial flows into Aus from foreign investors
Expectations of future movements of the AUD
Demand for Aus exports
Explain how size of financial flows into Aus from foreign investors affects demand for AUD
This is because foreign investors wanting to invest into Aus will have to convert their currency into AUD –> increasing demand for AUD. This is further influenced by the level of Aus i/r relative to overseas i/r, where higher i/r is more attractive for foreign savings –> increased demand for AUD
How do expectations of future movements of the AUD influence demand for AUD?
Speculation that the AUD will appreciate will result in increased investors wanting to invest into Aus –> increased demand for AUD due to having to change currencies.
On the flip side, expectations for a depreciation in the AUD will instead reduce demand for AUD as its deemed unprofitable
How do demands for Aus exports influence demand for AUD?
This is because foreigners who buy Aus exports need to convert their currency into AUD to pay Aus exporters. This in turn is affected by changes in commodity prices and terms of trade, in which their increase will lead to the increased value of Aus exports –> increased demand for AUD
It is also influenced by the degree of international competitiveness (IC) and Aus inflation rate compared to overseas markets. If IC is high and inflation is low, Aus X will be cheaper and more attractive to foreign buyers –> increased demand for AUD
Also affected by changes in global eco conditions. Demand for Aus commodity exports is dependent on the growth rates of Aus trading partners. When global EG is ↑, then demand and prices for Aus X ↑, same vice versa
What is supply of AUD represented by?
Represented by all those people who wish to sell the currency
What is supply of AUD affected by? (5)
Level of financial flows
Availability of investment opportunities overseas
Speculators in the forex markets
Domestic demand for imports
Tastes and preferences of domestic consumers
How does level of financial flows affect the supply of the AUD?
Financial flows out of Aus by AUs investors wanting to invest overseas will need to sell A$ –> Increasing supply for AUD
Meanwhile, if there are low financial flows out of Aus by investors trying to invest overseas, there will be less supply of AUD
What is the level of financial flows affected by?
Influenced by the level of Aus i/r relative to overseas i/r. This is because investing overseas will be more worthwhile than in Aus. It is also influenced by the number of actual investment opportunities overseas there are
How does availability of investment opportunities overseas impact supply of the AUD
Greater opportunities of investment → ↑ financial flows out of Aus → ↑ Supply of A$
How does speculation in the forex markets impact supply of AUD
Speculators in the forex market who expect value of the A$ to go down → sell A$ → Increasing supply of A$, which ultimately contributes to the anticipated depreciation
How does the domestic demand for imports affect supply of AUD?
because Aus importers who buy from overseas will sell A$ to obtain foreign currencies to make import payments.
What is demand for imports determined by?
Level of domestic income. Strong EG and rising incomes and employment → Demand for imports rising → ↑Supply of A$
The domestic inflation rate and competitiveness of domestic firms that compete with imports. If Aus inflation is higher and import-competing firms are relatively uncompetitive, imports will be cheaper than domestic products → demand for imports ↑ → ↑Supply of A$
How do tastes and preferences of domestic consumers affect supply of the AUD?
An increasing preference for g+s from overseas → ↑supply of A$ on the forex market
How do RBA policy measures affect the value of the currency? (example)
In 2020, when RBA purchased bonds in the bond market to increase liquidity and put downward pressure on i/r, it ↑supply of A$ → 1-2% depreciation of exchange rate in Nov 2020.
What is a depreciation?
a fall in the value or purchasing power of the exchange rate relative to other currencies.
What is an appreciation?
a rise in the value or purchasing power of the exchange rate relative to other currencies.
What is a summary of 6 reasons for appreciations?
An increase in Aus i/r or decrease in overseas interest rate
Improved investment opportunities in Aus or deterioration in foreign investment opportunities
A rise in commodity prices and an improvement in Aus TOT
An improvement in Aus international competitiveness
Lower inflation in Aus
Increased demand for Aus exported g+s
What is a summary of 6 reasons as for a depreciation?
A decrease in Aus i/r or increase in overseas i/r
Deterioration in investment opportunities in Aus or improvement in foreign investment opportunities
A fall in commodity prices and a deterioration in Australia’s TOT
Deterioration in Australia’s international competitiveness
Higher inflation in Australia
↑Demand for imported g+s
What are the 3 main types of exchange rates?
Floating exchange rate
Fixed exchange rate
Managed exchanged rate
What is a floating exchange rate?
This is where the exchange rate is determined by market forces. Here, there is no government intervention in the forex markets. This is considered a clean float, as there is no gov intervention.
What are the advantages of the floating exchange rate? (3)
Shock absorber/automatic stabiliser. When the currency appreciates, exports become less competitive –> automatically depreciates as it is less IC, and continues in cycle.
Prevents destabilising speculation on the value of the currency
Due to currency being market price, it will represent the fundamental stat of the Aus economy
What are the disadvantages of the floating exchange rate? (1)
There is an increased exchange rate volatility. This is because uncertainty can lead to a reduced level of investment, due to unpredictable exchange rate movements affecting the security of the investments
What is a fixed exchange rate system?
It is where the exchange rate is determined by the central bank (the RBA)
What is it called when the RBA lowers the exchange rate?
It is called a devaluation
What is it called when the RBA increases the exchange rate?
It is called a revaluation
What does it mean if a fixed exchange rate is pegged to another currency?
Meaning that there is a fixed exchange rate for its currency with a foreign currency or basket of currencies
Did Aus peg their currency to a different currency? If so when and who
In 1976 with the AUD pegged to the UK
What are the advantages of utilising a fixed exchange rate? (2)
Allows for certainty about the immediate ST value of the E/R which helps businesses make decisions
If central bank chooses to undervalue or overvalue their E/R, it will allow for them to constantly receive the benefits respective to each