Tony advice Flashcards
What is a perfect S curve with regards to support and resistance?
you want to play perfect S- curves a perfect S-curve on the bear side should rotate up and not break through all of the resistance on the way back up and get all the way back up to the lower high. If that happens its showing a lot of strength, so might be good to avoid.
Tip. These are crazy moves. Don’t try to call the tops on things with short term spreads. You can do atm spread if you understand that it has a 50% win rate. Or sell spreads a month out way up at all time highs. I know it wil pullback but short keep getting squeezed. Wait for a gap up then sell spreads. Sell set up 1 when your going against the moves like this. BecUse set up 2 are to hard to hedge. Overbought on hourly but keep going up. Sell only at weekly lower highs. Sometimes it’s ok to just sit back and get plan days ahead for your next spread then it is to keep trying to sell bear call spreads close and keep getting burned
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Tony Pawlak (Admin) 1:05 PM Received are the pending orders to get in and out. Filled is when a order fills but it goes away after the day is over. It only stays active for the day to let you know your field, after that you have to look at the bottom part of your screen under positions and you’ll see your positions that you are filled in right now that’s where you can put in orders to get out. And those orders to get out we’ll go up on the received tab on the top
Tony Pawlak (Admin) 7:18 AM I'm looking bullish on the spy and qqq. We are into a good resistance so it could be a choppy day today if we open up inside candle. Usually after a big move you don't get another big move. It will rest today and set up for later this week.
If we can get a little pullback I will play the short term s curve on Spx, amzn for spreads. We will see if it pays. I still am looking to do the bear call on amd if it can get to our entry and pay enough.
sdf
when you see a lot of bull candles on a stock. Be careful with the higher low above because this would be aggressive. it could pass all those candles and go bear. Look for past. Straight down and straight up? Channelling then
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We are into a massive resistance with 2 decent bull days in a row. It’s showing strength to break out of the high of yesterday. Today I am going to be patient and just read sentiment. Be ok with just getting an edge to set you up for the next day. Instead of having to jump on each move. Yesterday was the easy move to make money on.
So now start finding a spot where the bulls should hold. Tell me what you think those are. We won’t trade them. But we want to see what the bulls do at this spots. Do they hold. Do they fall right away?
Tony Pawlak (Admin) 44 minutes ago This is how you get an idea of strength and weakness in the market. You watch. You give it expectations and see what happens in those areas to confirm or contradict your expectation
There is a price to pay to make as much money as your heart desires, and to live the life that you deserve. Everyone can have it, but few people realize this one thing. The way you handle failure is the only thing that separates the have and the have nots.
Who here has ever lost money before in the markets? How did you act when that happened? Lets try something new just this one time. This time around, stop doubting yourself, stop worrying if you can do this or if its possible to make a living trading, stop blaming yourself, stop blaming other things, stop trying to figure out how you can make it back, stop crying, stop worrying.. you cant do the same things you’ve always done and expect different results. We have got our butts kicked, its not the first time, and wont be the last, but LET this time be the time that you CHANGE. The time when you finally let go of money, and fail ABUNDaNTLY. stop giving money so much power in your life that you allow it to define your success. let it go, and it will flood in your life faster than you can spend it. I am not just saying this because it sounds good. I am saying this because its true. It doesnt get much harder than this.. If you can learn one thing from this month its, let go of money. fail abundantly, and hold your head up high. Smile, rejoice, you will all be amazing traders because of this month and the way it caused you to stretch and grow. I love you all, dont give up, dont doubt, dont have fear, but be believing.
well said
MY NEW ADJUSTMENT TO MY CREDITSPREAD PLAN WITH THE CONCERN ZONE. I am realizing that hedging my way is not easy for everyone else and just adds more stress. So here is my change. If we get a hourly/ daily close in my concern zone (depending on if there is under 2 weeks left or longer than 2 weeks) then i will do a debit spread. (buy a out of the money option and sell a further out of the money option that will be down around my credit spread.) The goal of doing this is to give myself a guaranteed small loss no matter what happens. if we get a close in the concern zone i want to get out for breakeven and i a no longer trying to make money on the spread. So instead of leaving it open and just hedging it i am going to buy the debit spread and lock in a small loss ,possibly a breakeven trade. This takes all the stress off of having to time up the hedge and worrying about losing on the hedge. The key to this working is the price needs to be a decent distance away from your credit spread. The closer it is to your spread the larger the loss you guarantee to have. I did this yesterday on NVDA and it worked great, i didnt have to worry about hedging and got out for a $250 loss overall.
I will go over how to do this with each of you in our coaching sessions. and will give you exact details of how to do this in the spreads we are in if that time comes.
new credit spread hedge
My friends, I know a lot of you are pretty low. Doubt, and fear are starting to creep in. Now is the time to decide, what do I base my self worth off of? Do you smile and part when you win? And then crawl into a corner of depression when you lose? If so, you are basing your self worth off of your ability to trade the markets. All that leads to is more emotional trading= more losses. This trade, this current months p/l have nothing to do with your self worth, or your ability to trade. If you don’t believe in yourself because you simply love yourself, you know that you can do this without any reassurance from outside sources then you will fail. You don’t need evidence that you can do this. You don’t need a history of success. All you need is to believe in yourself when everything around you is screaming the opposite. Will a negative month this month be the end of your trading career? No, but a lot of us are acting like it will be. Full time traders have many months like this every year.
Smile, be happy, love yourself, be confident in yourself regardless of the outcome. Good or bad. We will learn, grow, and money will flow into your life very very soon.
words of wisdom
WE ALL HAVE GOALS THAT WE WANT TO ACHEIVE. THIS NEXT SENTENCE IS USUALLY THE REASON WE MOVE FURTHER FROM OUR GOALS…
WINNING IS WHAT WILL GIVE ME MY GOAL.
WHAT WILL REALLY GET US TO OUR GOAL? FOLLOWING THE PROCESS..
IF WE THINK WINNING WILL GET US TO OUR GOALS THEN EVERY TIME WE LOSE = WE ARE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR GOAL. SO EVERY LOSS BRINGS MORE FRUSTRATION, AND MORE EMOTION INTO OUR TRADING. WE CANNOT CONTROL THE OUTCOME OF A TRADE. THAT IS WHY THIS THINKING IS FLAWED.
IF WE FOCUS ON THE PROCESS. = I HAVE A 50% WIN RATE. THIS MONTH I WILL LOSE 20 TIMES, AND I WILL WIN 20 TIMES. JUST FOLLOW THE PLAN CAUSE THE PLAN WILL ALLOW ME TO MAKE MONEY WITH A 50% WIN RATE.
YOU DONT CARE ABOUT NEEDING TO WIN OR IF YOU LOSE. ITS ALL PART OF THE MATH, AND PART OF THE PROCESS. = YOU TRADE WITH LESS EMOTIONS. LOSSES DONT CAUSE YOU TO SPIRAL, AND YOU KEEP TAKING THE SET UPS WHEN THEY COME INSTEAD OF DOUBTING THEM IF THEY WILL WORK OR NOT.
SO YOU MAKE MORE MONEY IN THE LONG RUN BY FOLLOWING THE PROCESS AND IN TURN YOU ACHIEVE YOUR GOALS
May 11
