Thought - 2 Flashcards
Decision Making
process of choosing what to do from a number of choices
How we should Make decisions -
rationally, consider all info and evidence, focus on problem, not surface characteristics or extraneous details, use probability
making decisions rationally: rational choice theory
we make choice that best meets goal - Expected value: what is more probable, Expected utility: what will meet your goals. RCT: we make decisions by determining how likely something is to happen, judging the value of the outcome and then multiplying the two
how we actually make decisions: heuristics
mental shortcuts: fast and efficient strategy that may facilitate decision making, but doesn’t guarantee that a solution will be reached
Three types of heuristics
availability (rules of thumb), representativeness, conjunction fallacy
representative heuristics
mental shortcut that involves making a probability judgment by comparing an object or event to a prototype of the object or event - we make judgements based on surface characteristics then classify according to this. Useful in everyday stuff: can distinguish things easily but also lets us fall into stereotypes and prejudices
Algorithm
well defined sequence of procedures or rules that guarantees a solution to a problem
heuristics vs algorithm: making a powerpoint
Heuristic: try to remember what you did last time. Algorithm: follow step by step directions which tells you exactly what to do
Memory is Fallible
not an accurate storage, it is a reconstruction based on current context can make mistakes
memory - availability bias
we judge how likely something is to have happened given how easily it comes to mind -items that are more readily available in memory are judges as having occurred more frequently. How many car accidents in Edmonton? If you saw an accident that morning, your guess would be higher
