Theories of IR

Question 1

Kenneth N. Waltz - “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better”

Answer 1

Psychology of IR: Rationality, Misperception, & Deterrence
o The likelihood of war decreases as deterrent and defensive capabilities increase. Nuclear weapons make wars hard to start.
o The gradual spread of nuclear weapons is more to be welcomed than feared.
o Proliferation is inevitable. Believe there is enough safety /back up to prevent an accident to become a nuclear war. Cold War a success in nuclear deterrence. Has a nonrealistic view.

Question 2

Offensive Realism

Answer 2

Mearsheimer is an offensive realist unlike Waltz and believes that states are never satisfied with a given amount of power. The way the system is made up gives them incentives to try and attain more power at the expense of their competitors. Offensive Realism comes out of the “Tragedy of Great Power Politics”

Question 3

John Ruggie – “What makes the world hang together? Neo-utilitarianism and the social constructivist challenge

Answer 3

Constructivist
o Ruggie introduced the concepts of international regimes and epistemic communities into the international relations and was a major contributor to the emergence of the constructivist approach to international relations theorizing, which takes seriously the roles of norms, ideas, and identities, alongside other factors in determining international outcomes.
o In contrast to neo-utilitarianism (incl. neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism), constructivists contend that not only are identities and interests of actors socially constructed, but also that they must share the stage with a whole host of other ideational factors that emanate from the human capacity and will.
o Constructivist empirical studies documenting the impact of principled beliefs on patterns of international outcomes include decolonization, international support for the termination of apartheid, the growing significance of human rights, etc.

Question 4

State system

Answer 4

group of independent neighboring states more or less connected with one another and of relatively equal power, must possess a clearly defined territory (Gulick); two or more states with sufficient contact between them and sufficient impact on one another’s decisions (Waltz proponent)

Question 5

Coercion

Answer 5

use of threat of force to achieve a specific outcome: requires rationality, threat alters process of logic of other side, use of force seen as failure of coercion (Schelling: make opponent to be better off doing what we want considering threatened penalty

Question 6

William Wohlforth – “Stability in a Unipolar World”

Answer 6

Neo-Realist
o Wohlforth disagrees with the “widespread belief that unipolarity is dangerous and unstable”; claims that unipolarity is safer and cheaper that bi- or multi-polarity.
o Neo-realists say that a great concentration of power make other states feel threatened, and they will take action to restore the balance of power, but since 1991 we have observed cooperation rather than balance-of-power politics.
o Since the Soviet Union disbanded, the bipolar nature of the international system changed into a unipolar one, with the U.S. as the only superpower. The U.S. has “decisive preponderance” in all four major components of power: economic, military, technological, and geopolitical. The current military and economic superiority of the U.S. is more pronounced than that of any other superpower state at any other time in modern international history. Due to its geographic isolation, the U.S. does not have to have as high a concentration of power to sustain unipolarity.
o A unipolar power has the capability to engage in interventionist policies to assure the stability of the system, and protect other states’ security.

Question 7

International Regime

Answer 7

based on international types of laws or treaties but they are more like ideas. Non Proliferation Treaty or Kyoto Protocal contributes to creating international regimes - ways of thinking or expectations about how states and the international community should behave.

Question 8

Rationality

Answer 8

actors have consistent goals that they know; several options to achieve goals; actors can calculate costs/benefits; actors rank options and pick the one that is most cost effective (Allison discussion of rational actor model- analysts attempt to understand happening as the more or less purposive acts of unified national governments)

Question 9

Democratic Peace Theory

Answer 9

Owen: Democracies accommodate fellow democracies, but sometimes call for war with non-democracies (perception that non-democracies may be interested in conquest or plunder); come from institutional constraints or ideas/norms; perception of other country as liberal democracy is the key to dem. peace theory; democracies build institutions that enhance peace

Question 10

Multipolarity

Answer 10

Pro-Deutsch and Singer-less instability than bipolar, system maintains characteristics

Question 11

John Mearsheimer – “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”

Answer 11

Neo-Realist
o Unlike Waltz, who is a defensive realist, Mearsheimer is an offensive realist: states are not satisfied with a given amount of power, but seek hegemony for security because the anarchic makeup of the international system creates strong incentives for states to seek opportunities to gain power at the expense of competitors.
o “Given the difficulty of determining how much power is enough for today and tomorrow, great powers recognize that the best way to ensure their security is to achieve hegemony now, thus eliminating any possibility of a challenge by another great power. Only a misguided state would pass up an opportunity to be the hegemon in the system because it thought it already had sufficient power to survive.”
o Mearsheimer does not believe it is possible for a state to become a global hegemon because there is too much landmass and too many oceans which he posits have effective stopping power and act as giant moats. Instead he believes that states can only achieve regional hegemony.

Question 12

End of History

Answer 12

Fukuyama argues that the advent of Western liberal democracy may signal the endpoint of humanity’s sociocultural evolution and the final form of human government. “
a. “What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”

Question 13

Social construction

Answer 13

processes of interaction produce and reproduce the social structures, cooperative or conflictual, that shape actors’ identities and interests and the significance of their material contexts; fact that groups interact leads to shared ideas, etc (Wendt)

Question 14

What causes war? (literally a previous test question)

Answer 14

● The international system is anarchical (Waltz)
○ Kant’s international law stuff is more relevant to economic cooperation
● Fear of actions of other participants, but this is a human emotion that focuses on Classical realism (Morgenthau building off Hobbes)
● Liberals say the lack of supranational institution that checks and balances great powers
● Arrival of a new hegemon (Gilpin) - a rising state benefits at a greater rate than the existing hegemon, old hegemon can’t maintain power and status, war ensues
○ Ex. British fighting pirates benefits Germany who rises up to challenge British in WWI
○ Theory of Hegemonic War doesn’t neatly far in any category of theory, kind of does his own thing
● Democratic Peace Theory (Doyle and Owen) - lack of liberal governments around the world, because democracies don’t fight each other but they fight other people
● Marxism would say countries are trying to expand, and that’s why war happens
● Bureaucratic perspective says there might be fundamental failures in the bureaucracy may force people to war, or some domestic coalition. Bureaucrats may also have personal agendas, that push people toward war (Myth of the Empire - Snyder)
● None of these theories except maybe Mearsheimer and Gilpin say war is inevitable, it’s just a possibility
● Neo-realism is also called structural realism

Question 15

Robert Keohane & Joseph Nye - “Power and Interdependence”

Answer 15

Liberal
o The resources that produce power have been viewed differently over time and among different theories. Traditionalists believed military might was power, which led to outcomes. Now, asymmetrical interdependence and the use of political bargaining are what translate potential power into effects.

Question 16

The US relationship with China

Answer 16

● China is a new hegemon rising up against a unipolar power (the US), first stages of polar conflict (Gilpin - this dude is such a pessimist)
● Offensive neo-realism: not about absolute power, but about maximizing relative power, involving material power or literally the resources you have (Mearsheimer - also a pessimist here)
● Democratic peace theory might be pessimistic too, because the two countries may be more bound for war since they don’t share the same ideology/institutions. There’s no check on the two countries, lacks the benefits of democratic peace.
● Liberal institutionalism: shit’s falling apart and being undermined by new international actors that make them kind of ineffective
● Going from a unipolar to bipolar system –> more stability! But the transition is the most dangerous bit, and he doesn’t really talk about it. (Waltz - finally, an optimist)
● Liberals optimistic views
○ Democratic peace: China is making a transition to democracy (eh maybe)
○ Missed one b/c I wasn’t paying attention… whoops
○ Nuclear weapons and stability of the bipolar system are good and all - war is too expensive and risky
● Think about constructivism!

Question 17

Anarchy

Answer 17

independent states with no central authority above them (Mearsheimer) not incompatible with economic interdependence (Bull) Anarchy spurs you to pursue hegemony (Gilpin) world politics is decentralized rather than hierarchic, states are subject to no superior govt (Keohane); for realists, leads to self-help; for liberals possibility of harmony of interests through trade and comparative advantage; for constructivists anarchy doesn’t necessarily lead to self help

Question 18

Identity

Answer 18

Key component of Constructivism and basically rejects realist notion that all states act the same way given the same circumstance. Constructivists believe that states will act very differently according to their respective culture, history, development, ideology, collective norms, etc

Question 19

International Institutions

Answer 19

arrangements built by man/states based on principles, have procedures for how to deal with principles; modify state behavior by reducing uncertainty, lowering transaction costs, solving collective action problem; most needed when hegemon declines (Keohane) or after hegemonic victory (Ikenberry) Sticky because formal, legal, binding; create transgovernment connections, can become vehicle for other organizing activity (Ikenberry) Institutions improve actors’ ability to implement rationality, which leads to an environment for greater cooperation

Question 20

Power cycle theory

Answer 20

Doran: States go through stages-rapid growth, slower growth, peak, rapid descent, slower descent, demise; war most likely at inflection points of rate of growth change; can have absolute gain but relative decline

Question 21

Hegemonic Stability Theory

Answer 21

International system likely to remain stable when one national state is the dominant world power, so the fall of an existing hegemon or state of no hegemon can result in a loss of stability in the international system; lack of dominant economy between WWI and WWII contributed to the Great Depression

• need political strength, military force (also navy and air necessary), large and growing economy, will to lead and become a hegemon
• (neo-realists: Gilpin) anarchic system creates power hungry states that will each attempt to install themselves as global hegemons, and the system is created and maintained by coercion. Hegemon will begin to undermine system when not in its interests
• (neo-liberalists) hegemon provides public goods through institutions and works in the best interests of everyone; it is motivated by enlightened self interest; with the decline of the hegemon, interests do not die, but take on a life of their own

Question 22

Complex interdependence

Answer 22

Nye and Keohane): multiple channels connect societies (interstate, transgovernmental, transnational), intl relationships consist of multiple issues not in clear or consistent hierarchy, military force is not used by govts towards other govts within the region when complex interdependence prevails

Question 23

Constructivism

Answer 23

The meanings in terms of which action is organized arise out of interaction; the process of signaling, interpreting, and responding completes a social act and begins the process of creating intersubjective meanings (Wendt) emphasis on intersubjective human action, need mutually recognized constitutive rules resting on collective intentionality (Ruggie) states have agency; nothing objective/fixed in time

Question 24

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Answer 24

Prisoner’s dilemma is a standard example of a game analyzed in game theory that shows why two completely “rational” individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. It is basically a realist argument on why liberalism or cooperation doesn’t really work.

Question 25

Niccolo Machiavelli – “Doing Evil in Order to Do Good” (excerpt from The Prince)

Answer 25

• Classical realist
  o Human nature realist
  o Cruelty is necessary in order to maintain the power of the state.
  o A state is most vulnerable when a new leader takes place and is not yet established in the world.
  o Machiavelli does not advocate cruelty for the sake of cruelty, but instead as a means of holding power and dominance in a state.
  o If we must choose between them, it is far safer to be feared than loved.
  o Love is fickle. People will forget love at a moments notice and come to hating a ruler.
  o A ruler should never pursue another man’s property or his wife.

Question 26

Security dilemma

Answer 26

reflects the logic of offensive realism (Mearsheimer); stronger when offense is more potent than defense and when hard to distinguish between offensive and defensive weapons (Jervis) potential in US/China relations (Friedberg)

Question 27

Unipolarity

Answer 27

Wohlforth: unipolar w/US is stable, prone to peace, durable-preponderance in economic, military, technological, geopolitical; US has to be interventionist and spend money; Layne-con, great powers will emerge; based on power-nobody else can balance

Question 28

Power

Answer 28

capacity of one state to force another state to do its will against theirs (realists: power mitigates anarchy, is the only guarantor of your sovereignty; power made up of military (most important), economy, geography, unity of population-anything that establishes and maintains control of man over man (Morgenthau)) Waltz: power is a means, not an end

Question 29

Robert Jervis -“Hypotheses on Misperception”

Answer 29

Psychology of IR: Rationality, Misperception, & Deterrence
o Challenges the rational-choice view of IR by arguing that misperception can undermine the real-world accuracy of game theoretic models
o “Decision-makers tend to fit incoming information into their existing theories and images.”
o Decision-makers tend to see other states as more hostile than they are.
o When I don’t try to conceal my intentions, I assume that you accurately perceive them.

Question 30

Harmony of Interests

Answer 30

in pursuing his own interest, the individual pursues that of the community, and in promoting the interest of the community he promotes his own, adam smith roots (Carr anti) Owen-all persons share a fundamental interest in self-preservation and material well-being, leads to harmony of interests

Question 31

Francis Fukuyama - The End of History and the Last Man

Answer 31

Writes this book stating that ending of cold war had shown that capitalism and liberal democracy had fewer flaws than any other system. As its triumph is recognized they would be adopted throughout the world and trump ideological conflicts. There would still be events and wars but nothing fundamental would ever change.
Three key ideas:
1. History is an evolutionary process from objectively worse to better ie. moving towards freedom
2. Driving force behind history’s evolution is the liberal democratic state. Only this system struggles for and toward improvement
3. The endpoint of historical evolution and the emergence of the triumphant citizen. History is moving from less free to liberal democracies

Question 32

Thucydides Trap

Answer 32

refers to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Athens (Delian League) was the rising power and threatened the security (balance of power) of Sparta (Peloponnesian league)

Question 33

Hegemon

Answer 33

advantageous for a state to have political strength, military force, and superior national power, large and growing economy, will to lead and have a hegemonic regime and enforce the rules in the system

Question 34

Interdependence

Answer 34

where there are reciprocal costly effects of transactions; have sensitivity (how quickly and size of costs) and vulnerability (costs to address challenge) (Nye and Keohane)

Question 35

Soft Balancing

Answer 35

is a recent addition to balance of power theory used to describe non-military forms of balancing evident since the end of the Cold War, particularly during and after the 2003 Iraq War. Soft balancing as a strategy can be attributed to the work of Robert Pape and T. V. Paul. As opposed to traditional balancing, soft balancing is undertaken not to physically shift the balance of power but to undermine, frustrate, and increase the cost of unilateral action for the stronger state. Soft balancing is not undertaken via military effort, but via a combination of economic, diplomatic and institutional methods. In other words, soft balancing uses “non-military tools to delay, frustrate and undermine aggressive unilateral U.S. military policies”.[4] Being non-military, soft balancing is regarded as ineffective: “Soft” balancing is “balancing that does not balance at all

Question 36

Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations

Answer 36

1996 Huntington published theory saying that cultural differences rather than ideological differences would be the primary source of future global conflict. Huntington believes that countries pool together and fight together for an ideological purpose but that cultural separations will persist and be a perpetual source of conflict. During the Cold War as we know it the world was divided into three parts - US, Soviets, and 3rd world (did not have an allegiance). According to Huntington, nations after the Cold war will align over cultural similarities. Points to break up of Yugoslavia as evidence of break up over cultural divides. The Civilizations are the West, Islam, Orthodox civilization (Russia), China, India, Japan, Latin America, Africa. Huntington disagrees with Fukuyama’s thesis that history had ended and that the liberal world order had triumphed.

Question 37

Charles Doran – “Systems in Crisis”

Answer 37

Power Cycle Theory
o Doran’s theory brings back the role of leadership, which traditional neo-realists discount.
o Power Cycle Theory: Doran explains the evolution of the international system and the outbreak of “extensive war” in terms of the internal economic and political dynamics of the leading states within the system. The relative power of each of these states follows a cycle of ascendance, maturation, and decline, and this power cycle is largely a function of internal economic cycles. The nature of a state’s foreign policy is a function of its position on the power cycle. National expansion and bids for hegemony—and hence, hegemonic war and systemic instability—result from a major power’s inability to adjust to its new power position and role in the system. This is most likely to occur at the four critical points in a nation’s power cycle (points of max and min power, and the two inflection points) where exaggerated fears, misperceptions, and overreaction are most intense. Extensive war is defined as having high casualties, long duration and great magnitude.

Question 38

Christopher Layne – “The Unipolar Illusion: Why New Great Powers Will Rise”

Answer 38

Theories of Hegemonic Stability
o This article uses neorealist theory to analyze the implications of unipolarity.
o The Soviet Union’s collapse transformed the international system from bipolarity to unipolarity.
o The “unipolar moment”, however, is an interlude to multi-polarity that will eventually give way.
o There have been two other comparable unipolar moments in modern international history (France 1660–1714 and Britain 1860–1910). These two eras confirm evidence from structural realism. 1) Unipolar systems contain the seeds of their own demise because the hegemon’s unbalanced power creates an environment conducive to the emergence of new great powers. 2) The entry of new great powers into the international system erodes the hegemon’s relative power and, ultimately, its preeminence.

Question 39

Alexander Wendt – “Constructing International Politics”

Answer 39

Constructivist
o Critical IR “theory” is not a single theory. It is a family of theories that includes postmodernists (Ashley, Walker), constructivists (Adler, Kratochwil, Ruggie and Katzenstein), neo-Marxists (Cox, Gill), feminists (Peterson, Sylvester), and others. What unites them is a concern with how world politics is “socially constructed,” which involves two basic claims:
 That the fundamental structures of international politics are social rather than strictly materials (a claim that opposes materialism)
 That these structures shape actors’ identities and interests, rather than just their behavior (a claim that opposes rationalism)

Question 40

Balance of Power

Answer 40

Aim is to insure the survival of independent states; prevent preponderance of power of one member of system, preserve individual states through preservation of system, need watchfulness, can keep through coalitions or alliances (Gulick) several actors of relatively equal power, states must want to survive, states able to ally with each other to promote short-run interests, war is a legitimate instrument of statecraft (Jervis); a competitive system

Question 41

Bi-multipolarity

Answer 41

Rosecrance: bipolar states are cooperative to repel challenges and competitive to prevent other from attaining predominance, multipolar countries work together to check ambitions of bipolar states, act as buffers

Question 42

Self-help system

Answer 42

Waltz: present in international system with no international government in anarchy; considerations of security subordinate economic gain to political interest; those who do not help themselves suffer (also Layne)

Question 43

Thomas Schelling – “Arms and Influence”

Answer 43

Psychology of IR: Rationality, Misperception, & Deterrence
o Elaborates on the ‘diplomacy of violence’ which involves bargaining power that comes from the ability of nations to inflict physical harm on each other.
o Modern weapons (nukes) mean victory is no longer a prerequisite for hurting the enemy; Thus, victory is not the ultimate aim for nations with their military; they want bargaining power that comes from the capacity to hurt.
o Changes mil. Strategy to the diplomacy of violence, with an increase in the art of coercion, intimidation, and deterrence.
o “Commitment” is a key consideration: communicating it, making it credible to your foes, but also controlling it. Pushing the envelope to test another’s commitment are common tactics. Schelling is a firm believer that “face” [commitment and credibility] is worth fighting for.
o “Brinksmanship” is manipulating the shared risk of war. The game of chicken in some respects, but there is uncertainty that could cause war.
o The nuclear paradox: Stability requires vulnerability. As invulnerability increases (missile shield, maybe) the likelihood of war increases because it introduces instability into the relationship between states.

Question 44

Bureaucratic politics model

Answer 44

Policies are formed based on the different competing preferences of different organizations-decisions made not on single choice, more from pulling/hauling. Bureaucratic interests likely to be in competition with each other-what matters is your ability to influence process, resources, agenda setting, controlling information-not necessarily rational outcomes (Allison discussion-perceptions, motivations, positions, power, maneuvers of principle players)

Question 45

Thomas Hobbes – “The State of Nature and the State of War”

Answer 45

Classical Realist
o Life is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.
o There is no place for industry because fruit of industry is uncertain, no friendships, no society; state of continual fear and danger of violent death.
o Individuals live in a constant condition of war because the system is anarchic, there is no central authority that can control relationships and prevent individual A from assaulting individual B.
o From equality proceeds diffidence. From diffidence, war. Since men have to share, they become enemies and seek to destroy one another.

Question 46

Karl Deutsch and David Singer – “Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability

Answer 46

Neo-Realist
o As a system moves away from bipolarity and towards multi-polarity, the frequency and intensity of wars should diminish.
o Since every nation’s needs and supplies differ, the more nations there are, the greater will be the number of trade-offs available to the total system, thus creating a stabilizing effect.
o Alliances tend to minimize the range of issues over which an actor can conflict with a partner.  Membership in an alliance not only exerts a negative quantitative impact on a nation’s interaction opportunities, but also impairs the quality of those that continue to exist.
o A reduction in the number of actors increases the chances of the escalation of conflict.

Question 47

Bipolarity

Answer 47

Pro: Waltz (great powers conservative) Con: Gilpin (states can fail to counterbalance each other, thrown out of whack by minor changes)

Question 48

Judith Goldstein and Robert Keohane – “Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change”

Answer 48

Constructivist
o Ideas matter for policy: actions taken by human beings depend on the substantive quality of available ideas, since such ideas help to clarify principles and conceptions of casual relationships, and to coordinate individual behavior. Once institutionalized, ideas continue to guide action in the absence of costly innovation.
o Ideas as road maps: The beliefs ideas embody provide road maps that increase actors’ clarity about goals or ends-means relationships.
o Decolonization post WWII is an argument for the role of ideas. Change in the colonists’ stance on self-determination, and not the inability of the states to control their colonies, explain rapid transformation of international politics. Changes in interests and power were not sufficient to explain the extent and pace of decolonization.

Question 49

Liberalism

Answer 49

● Key tenet is that cooperation is still possible in a world of anarchy
● Liberals look at world politics as a non-zero-sum game
● Mutual cooperation can yield public goods on a massive scale
● Free rider problem: everyone will benefit from broad-based cooperation even if they themselves do not cooperate
● Tragedy of the commons: while an outcome of mutual cooperation is better than one of mutual defection, all are best off in a situation in which they can unilaterally defect. Therefore, the outcome can be the tragedy of the commons with everyone defecting even though they are better off cooperating
○ Ways of getting over tragedy of the commons:
■ Time horizon
■ Economic interdependence - magnifies the gaps in gains between a world of collective action and a world of mutual distrust
■ Institutions: act as referees and make sure actors play by the rules and that the bargains are fair
■ Democracies are more likely to cooperate with each other
● A world of economic interdependence, democratic governments, and international institutions should foster extensive amounts of multilateral cooperation
● Regime complex: a conglomeration of international governmental organizations
● Liberal internationalists: American hegemony contributes to a more just world order

Question 50

Coercive Diplomacy

Answer 50

forceful persuasion” is the “attempt to get a target, a state, a group (or groups) within a state, or a nonstate actor-to change its objectionable behavior through either the threat to use force or the actual use of limited force

Question 51

Bipolarity

Answer 51

Waltz says its good because in the end the scope of the interactions is just between the two poles and there is no periphery and uncertainty about who is in power. This provides certainty. Singer & Dutch, on the other hand, favor multipolarity because the more nations interact with one another there will be higher trade offs if conflict arises. For example, globalization and trade make war very costly because disrupt international system. Also, more powerful actors will lead to more alliances which will diminish conflict.

Question 52

Constructivism

Answer 52

● Newest of the theories
● Two central tenets
1. Social construction of reality
2. Importance of identity in explaining and interpreting behavior on the world stage
● For constructivists, material factors such as economic wealth and military power are important but even more important are how social structures filter and interpret the meaning of those material capabilities
● For constructivists, transnational norms are a powerful constraint on action in world politics
○ Example: nuclear weapons are the most powerful weapons on the planet and yet they haven’t been used in combat since 1945. This is because of the taboo associated with them. Within societies, actors will usually refrain from violating powerful social norms because they do not want to be ostracized by their peers
● Identity
● Norm cascade: functions like peer pressure: as people witness others adhering to a particular standard of behavior, they are most likely to conform to that standard of behavior as well

Question 53

Barry Posen – “The Sources of Military Doctrine”

Answer 53

ORGANIZATIONAL PROCEDURES AND BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS
o Examines the explanatory power of organizational and balance of power theories to explain changes in military doctrine
o Balance of power theory does a better job; change normally comes about when a military maverick teams with a civilian leader to drive change externally onto the organization

Question 54

Formation of NATO

Answer 54

● Realism
● Creating a buffer between the US and Russia (Warsaw Pact), it’s an alliance that balances
● Alliance is an external balance (Waltz) - putting people on the same team to make yourselves stronger together than apart
● Systems characterized by this: bipolar system
○ Cold War is the closest thing to a bipolar system (Waltz)
● Why is the bipolar system stable or unstable?
○ Waltz says this is the most stable system because there’s no one strong enough to really take over like in a unipolar
○ Unstable because one of the powers could collapse (a la the USSR) which could lead to a period of great instability
○ Unstable because it can lead to a mass security dilemma
■ Because the two are competing to stay powerful, spirals out
■ Explains the Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis, etc.
● Gaddis is also important here

Question 55

Misperception

Answer 55

ideology, expectations that state will behave in certain way, imperfect information; Jervis-need devil’s advocates, awareness that decisionmakers do not make unbiased assessments of new information

Question 56

Immanuel Kant – “Perpetual Peace”

Answer 56

Liberal
o “The spirit of commerce… sooner or later takes hold of every nation, and is incompatible with war.”
o “There is no instance on record that a state has ever been moved to desist from its purpose because of arguments backed up by the testimony of such great men. But the homage which each state pays (at least in words) to the concept of law proves that there is slumbering in man an even greater moral disposition to become master of the evil principle in himself (which he cannot disclaim) and to hope for the same from others.”
o Men are capable of improving. The slumbering moral capacity can be awakened.
o Through the life of society and nations moral capacity can be improved.
o Less incentive to fight because in democracies when everybody bears the cost. Easier for monarchs or elites who can pass on cost, to go to war. For authoritarian regimes, war is a pleasure game, but in democracies have a check on aggressiveness.
o Democratic states are less conflictive internally. No spillover effects of domestic politics, no matter how nasty politics get.
o Democracies are more transparent (“open”), no secret treaties which are dangerous.
o Fundamental shared norms. We as a democracy are not going to fight against regimes/democracies that are perceived as legitimate.

Question 57

Liberalism

Answer 57

improvement/progress to manage politics is possible and tangible in history; individual (people not as selfish), commercial, democratic, intl. regimes/institutions; Doyle: liberal rights, less likely to have wars when citizens who elect govts bear burdens of war, capitalism and democracy pacifying

Question 58

Ideas

Answer 58

beliefs held by individuals-explain political outcomes, influence policy when they provide road maps that increase an actor’s clarity about goals or ends-means relationships; include worldfviews, principled beliefs, and causal beliefs (Goldstein and Keohane)

Question 59

Michael Doyle - “Liberalism and world-politics”

Answer 59

Liberal
o Liberal states are peaceful, but are also prone to make war. “Liberal states have created a separate peace…and have also discovered liberal reasons for aggression”
o “What we tend to call liberal resembles a family portrait of principles and institutions, recognizable by certain characteristics—for example, individual freedom, political participation, private property, and equality of opportunity—that most liberal states share, although none has perfected them all”
o “There is a pacific union among liberal regimes… consists of liberal nation which have upheld three rights: freedom from arbitrary authority, protection and promotion of freedom and democratic participation; constitutionally secured liberal states have yet to engage in war with one another; representative states recognize the legitimacy of other liberal states’ independence of action; it is the illegitimacy of war against other liberal states that has led to the mutual pacifism of democracies.”

Question 60

Reasons for World War I

Answer 60

● Waltz, Gilpin, Owen to some extent use the World Wars as case studies
● Realism
○ WWI: geopolitical power struggle, two alliance structures in a multi-polar world with a lot of uncertainty about whether the alliances are strong and whether the alliances will defect. Also an arms competition between Germany and Great Britain. War begins because the conflict spiral (security dilemma) bolstered by the unstable alliances following the assassination of the Archduke leads to a situation where war is highly likely.
○ WWII: terrible sequel to WWI, similar international structures still exist. Neo-realists and Gilpin would explain this.
● Liberal
○ WWI: There was nobody to mediate/mitigate what happened. The initial long peace in Europe (1815-1914) was in large part governed by the agreements that were written up in the Congress of Vienna. That international mitigation tool had degraded by the eve of WWI. In addition, one set of allies were democrats and the other side weren’t (this is a harder argument to make without knowing the history - i.e. the relationship between German royal class and their elected body, in other words be able to fully define democracy and how it applies to specific states).
○ WWII: Peace of Versailles had the Allies take it out on the Germans, it was an ineffective agreement that set up a situation where if it wasn’t Hitler, it would be someone else that would’ve driven Germany to another great war (Keynes - when the hell did we read Keynes…?). The more people interact in the economic realm, the more costly war becomes, so the likelihood of fighting is lower because there are too many lost gains from trade in war.

Question 61

Realism:

Answer 61

● Anarchy is the overarching constraint of world politics. Anarchy does not mean chaos but rather the absence of a centralized, legitimate authority. In a world of anarchy, the only currency that matters is power
● Power: the material capability to ward off pressure or coercion while being able to influence others
● There is no world government despite what people may say or wish. The anarchic global structure makes it impossible for governments to fully trust each other, forcing all states to be guided solely by their own national interests
● With no monopoly on the use of force in world politics, every actor must adopt “self help” measures to ensure continued existence.
● States are the primary actors
● Kenneth Waltz - not “will both of us gain?” but “who will gain more?”. Therefore, cooperation in the form of balancing coalitions will always be transient and unstable
● Because anarchy is such a powerful constraint on state actions, realists are not particularly interested in the domestic politics of other countries. Whether a country has a democratic, autocratic, or revolutionary form of government has only a marginal effect on that country’s foreign policy trajectory
● This uncertainty in anarchy forces all states into roughly similar preferences - maximizing security. Does not necessarily translate into power maximization. States that become too powerful risk triggering what is called a security dilemma ie. acquiring so much power that other countries choose to form a balancing coalition against the rising power
○ As a result cooperation is possible in a realist world in order to contain revisionist powers and to maintain a balance of power
● Terms
○ buck passing: states refrain from taking active action in the hopes that other countries will
● Kenneth Waltz theory of International Politics:
○ Rather than focusing on human nature, Waltz published his book in 1979 postulating that states cannot know one another’s motives and because there is no authroity to govern states they fear one another. For Waltz all states share one goal: survival
○ Anarchy results in a power balancing determined solely by relative military power
○ Types of religions, cultures, or governments don’t matter
○ Imagine a billiard table, add some balls and the player takes a shot and the ball

Question 62

Joseph Schumpeter

Answer 62

Liberal
o Schumpeter’s explanation for liberal pacifism is quite simple: Only war profiteers and military aristocrats gain from wars. No democracy would pursue a minority interest and tolerate the high costs of imperialism. When free trade prevails, “no class” gains from forcible expansion
o With the advancement of capitalism people form “an unwarlike disposition.”

Question 63

Groupthink

Answer 63

Janis): a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members’ strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action

Question 64

G.J. Ikenberry - “After Victory”

Answer 64

Liberal
o After war, the state has three broad choices to establish new basic rules and organizing arrangements: (1) use its power to dominate weaker states, (2) abandon the other states and go home, or (3) use its commanding position to gain acquiescence and participation in a mutually acceptable post-world order (#3 is optimum, but large states will want to remain unbound by post-world order)
o Regimes are established in the aftermath of wars, leading state extends decision-making access and rights to secondary states in exchange for acquiescence
o Self-interest of hegemon: reduce transaction costs, preserve dominance later; openness and transparency
o Substantive agreements v. institutional (principles, rules, parameters)
o Stickiness of institutions: Setting standards and expectations, Acquisition of autonomy and authority, Networking in bureaucracies – epistemic communities, Spillover process, Certainty of relations – incentive, Increasing returns, learning curve

Question 65

Leadership

Answer 65

Classical realist-prudent (pursue policies that maximize power but do not extend commitments beyond capabilities; bluffing is dangerous)
Neorealist: following the system tells you what to do
Liberal: Domestic system more powerful than leaders (accountability)
Liberal Institutionalist: Leaders play role in building regimes, institutions, which constrain the leaders
Constructivists: stress leadership; leaders are catalysts for change, can alter state behavior (ex EU driven by leaders)

Question 66

Richard Rosecrance – “Bipolarity, Multipolarity, and the Future”

Answer 66

Neo-Realist
o Bipolarity—it does not reduce motivations for expansion and may increase them; antagonism generated by one side by action will be reciprocated - zero sum game; all changes in the system are vital because they directly affect the balance
o Multipolarity—high probability that system will increase the number of int’l conflicts because there is a bewildering array of claims and interests; uncertainty is compounded.

Question 67

Organizational process model

Answer 67

State policy is less an outcome of a deliberate decision, but more of an output of organizations functioning with certain existing rules and standard operating procedures.; organizations are slow to change, greater chance of normal accidents (ex Cuban missile crisis-normal us nuclear test heightened tensions, Cubans shot down U2 based on SOPs but could have expanded conflict) (Allison Discussion)—Monten and Bennett say was strong influence in Gulf War I and crisis

Question 68

Melian Dialogue

Answer 68

example of classical realism that illustrates how power and security trump morals. Self Preservation is the most important thing for a state

Question 69

Robert Keohane - “After Hegemony”

Answer 69

Liberal
o Modified Structural View: “Regimes could be significant, but only under restrictive circumstances”
 Starts with a conventional structural realist perspective (sovereign states seek to maximize interests and power)
 The function of regimes is to coordinate state behavior to achieve desired outcomes. This takes place when optimal outcomes can’t be achieved by one state acting alone.
 Regimes have significant impact, but only under restrictive conditions
 Most often there is a direct link between causal factors and outcome; however when individual decisions lead to suboptimal outcomes, regimes may be significant
o CAUSAL FACTORS  REGIMES  BEHAVIOR & OUTCOMES

Question 70

Putting together a global climate change agreement (COP)

Answer 70

● An agreement on global climate change is in the liberal tradition because an international organization is facilitating it
○ It involves cooperation
○ Idea of some kind of international interdependence
● COP itself isn’t an organization, it’s a regime
○ Regime: norms, rules and decision-making procedures that help converge the expectations of states
● Why?
○ Need to have everyone agree on their own, instead of imposing on their sovereignty
○ Tries to mitigate anarchy - like any regime
■ The global environment is a public good, so to avoid free riding you need a regime to coalesce the rules of the road for climate

Question 71

Hans Morgenthau – “Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace”

Answer 71

Classical Realist
o The book introduces the concept of political realism, presenting a realist view of power politics. This concept played a major role in the foreign policy of the United States, which made it exercise globe-spanning power in the Cold War period.
o Morgenthau’s theory is the best example of human nature realism in international relations.  It is the intrinsic nature of the human actors who control the states that causes states to behave as they do.
o All states will seek to have the greatest amount of power that they possibly can. In their pursuit of security or power, states will conduct politics and adopt policies according to a rational framework.
o “The statesman must think in terms of the national interest, conceived as power among other powers. The popular mind, unaware of the fine distinctions of the statesman’s thinking, reasons more often than not in the simple moralistic and legalistic terms of absolute good and absolute evil.”
o Force, or the ability and willingness to use force when perceived to be necessary, is an integral part of statehood. History reveals that nations are continuously preparing for, actively involved in, or recovering from organized violence in the form of war. In domestic politics, on the other hand, organized violence as an instrument of political action on an extensive scale has become a rare exception in the form of a revolution.

Question 72

Robert Gilpin – “War and Change in International Politics”

Answer 72

Theories of Hegemonic Stability
o Gilpin brings back role of foreign policy, which traditional neo-realists discount. States will pursue foreign policy to serve their interests  change, or rather, the uneven growth of states, is caused by domestic factors (e.g., expansion through economic surplus)
o Hegemonic war and change: A hegemonic war arises due to increasing disequilibria between the governance of the system and the actual distribution of power, determined largely by the law of uneven development. The dominant power finds that its expanded commitments and the cost of leadership cannot be supported by its eroding resource base. Gilpin argues that the dominant power generally tries, but fails to, reduce its commitments or expand its resource base. If the dominant power can’t resolve the disequilibrium, the system will change to reflect the new redistribution of power (usually through hegemonic war).

Question 73

International regime

Answer 73

general pattern of international activity that follows more or less established rules on how you should behave; no cost for leaving, more narrow in purpose than institutions (human rights, monetary policy), made up of principles, rules, norms, and decision-making procedures (Krasner); the sets of governing arrangements that affect relationships of interdependence (Nye and Keohane) establish legal liability, provide symmetrical information, and arrange costs of bargaining so that agreements can be more easily made (Keohane)

Question 74

Norman Angell

Answer 74

Liberal
o Commerce is leaning towards peace (in 1910, a moment of globalization, expansion of trade) – interdependence in modern economies makes war unprofitable
o “The police exist as an instrument of social co-operation; the armies as the natural outcome of the quaint illusion that though one city could never enrich itself by “capturing” or “subjugating” another, in some unexplained way one country can enrich itself by capturing or subjugating another.”

Question 75

B. Bernstein - “Understanding Decision-making, U.S. Foreign Policy and Cuban Missile Crisis: A Review Essay”

Answer 75

ORGANIZATIONAL PROCEDURES AND BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS
o Sought to explain the process of decision making and thus the content of policy
o Referred to “ordinary states” as those which bureaucracies and organizations substantially define policy
o Emphasized the need to look within the state to understand American foreign policy and its making (challenged realism’s assumption that states seek to maximize power)

Question 76

Prospect theory

Answer 76

how we interpret our choices, as gains or losses, influences how much risk we will take; how we frame information influences judgment (Mercer discusses) people are more willing to take risk if outcome is framed as a loss rather than a gain

Question 77

Thomas Berger – “Norms, Identity, and National Security in Germany and Japan”

Answer 77

Constructivist
o The main purpose of this essay is to examine why Japan and Germany pursued national policies that deemphasized building and maintaining a strong military. The author argues that none of the theories that are based in strategic state behavior can fully explain the phenomenon: neorealism can’t explain why Japan and Germany were so adamantly against any military build up, and neoliberalism does not explain how it was that Japanese and German antimilitarism developed before strong international peacekeeping institutions developed.
o Author’s thesis is that Japan and Germany developed cultural values that influenced their defense policy and made them especially reluctant to use military force post WWII. In the period between 1945-1960, those beliefs became institutionalized.
 Germany sought a close alliance with the West post WWII because of the very physically close threat of Soviet dominance.
 Japan preferred to maintain military autonomy post WWII, and made bilateral pacts with the U.S. rather than entering into multi-party alliances – a reflection of its position as an island nation “insulated from immediate military threat”.
 Both Germany and Japan chose not to acquire nuclear capabilities in large part due to the domestic political costs that such action would have entailed.

Question 78

Thucydides – “The Melian Dialogue”

Answer 78

Classical realist
o The text is in a form of a dialogue between the representatives of the Athenians and the Melians.
o The Melians are a colony of Lacedaemon (Sparta), reluctant to submit to Athenians. Athenians are trying to persuade the Melians to submit to their rule without using force.
o The Melians argue that they are a neutral city and not an enemy, so Athens has no need to crush them. The Athenians counter that, if they accept the Melians’ neutrality and independence, they would look weak: people would think they spared Melos because they were not strong enough to conquer it.
o The Melians argue that it would be shameful and cowardly of them to submit without a fight. The Athenians counter that the debate is not about honor but about self-preservation.
o Melians refuse to submit to the Athenians without force and claim that in a fight, they will be able to defend their freedom. In the end, the Melians are besieged by the Athenians and were forced to surrender. Athenians killed all Melian grown men and enslaved their women and children.
o “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”

Question 79

I. Janis – “Groupthink”

Answer 79

Psychology of IR: Rationality, Misperception, & Deterrence
o People involved in a cohesive in-group will tend to seek concurrence at the expense of realistically evaluating alternative courses of action.
o Result is often irrational and sometimes dehumanizing policies or actions directed against out-groups.

Question 80

Intergovernmental organizations

Answer 80

NATO, UN, these are examples of organizations that are very formal in nature and have states that are members. Highly structured and very critical in addressing issues that plague the global community

Question 81

Alexander Wendt – “Anarchy is what states make of it”

Answer 81

Constructivist
o “…I argue that self-help and power politics do not follow either logically or causally from anarchy and that if today we find ourselves in a self-help world, this is due to process, not structure. There is no “logic” of anarchy apart from the practices that create and instantiate one structure of identities and interests rather than another; structure has no existence or causal powers apart from process. Self-help and power politics are institutions, not essential features of anarchy. Anarchy is what states make of it….”
o Wendt argues that anarchy is a structural fact about the world, but that it is up to states/politicians to decide how to work within that anarchy. Interests and identity in anarchy are not given; they are dependent variables, dependent on individual, domestic, systemic, or transnational factors.
o First interactions provide basis for relationship: signaling, interpretation, then responding create “inter-subjective meanings,” i.e. they produce understanding of one another. Continued interaction results in evolving or solidifying identities. Analogy to repeated games in game theory. In this new context, opportunity for mutual gains through joint action produces incentives for cooperation: learning through repeated games.
o Identities mirror the other’s action and determine a strategic response. Wendt discusses “predator states” and the idea that one aggressive state can cause other states to behave in a warlike manner when they wouldn’t otherwise.  Under “mirror theory of identity formation,” the presence of predators may force others, regardless of predispositions, to defensive responses or aggression.
o Cooperation and transformation of identity: Europe’s long experience with cooperation during the cold war may have fundamentally changed its identity, creating a “European” identity that will persist despite the collapse of the Soviet threat and the renewed vigor of Germany.

Question 82

Stephen Krasner – ““Structural Causes and Regime Consequences: Regimes as Intervening Variables”

Answer 82

Liberal
o Attempts to synthesize theorists’ varying definitions of “regime” and their varying explanations for what causes regime change. He also lays out the distinctive ways theorists have answered the question “what is the relationship between regimes, causal factors, and outcomes?”

Question 83

Deterrence

Answer 83

preventing someone from taking an action (keep same behavior)-difficult because indefinite duration, have to maintain threat; alter intentions of other side by showing your intentions; (Schelling: persuading countries that you will invade is not sufficient; also requires communicating and projecting intentions to make other country behave) Direct vs extended (allies); immediate vs general; deterrence by punishment/denial (hardening targets); need capability, credibility, rationality

Question 84

Kenneth Waltz

Answer 84

Neo-Realist
“Theory of International Politics”
o Waltz (defensive realist) built on Morgenthau’s theory: it is the international structure, not the deliberate willed actions of men and women, which influenced states’ behavior.
o Waltz identified three elements to any system: its ordering principles, the character of its units, and the distribution of capabilities among those units. In international systems:
 The ordering principle is anarchy, because states do not recognize any sovereign authority that has either the right or the capability to overrule their decisions. The only alternative ordering principle is hierarchy, but, short of a world empire, one will not find a hierarchically organized international system.
 The units of an international system are states, but he sees no differentiation of function among states. All states are alike, in that they all seek the same end – survival in the anarchic international system. It is the third element, the distribution of capabilities, which does the heavy causal lifting.
 International systems change when the distribution of power among the states within them changes between multi-polarity and bipolarity. Multipolar international systems, in his view, have profoundly greater levels of conflict in them than bipolar systems

The Stability of a Bipolar World”
o Waltz argued that a bipolar world can be more stable than one with multiple great powers. Ex: the stability of the bipolar world of the postwar period. In addition, he asks whether this stability is attributable to the presence (and threat) of nuclear weapons or the bipolarity of the system itself.
o Four factors of bipolar state make it stable:
 No events are peripheral (that is, nothing takes place outside the scope of the interactions of the two poles), so there is a constant, stable back and forth of action and reaction. . Increase in the range and intensity of competitive factors (no small territorial losses)
 Bipolarity provides clarity because there is no ambiguity about power changes; smaller chance of overreaction since only need to focus on one actor
 Constant “state of crisis” requires actors to be alert at all times, reducing chance that something will get out of hand;
 Preponderant power of the two polar actors allows them to absorb all the different changes in the system, mitigates the effects of anarchy on the other states.
o Nuclear weapons are just a product and reinforce the system; they do not cause stability. No matter how much other nations spend on nuclear capability, they will not be able to spend what the great powers spend – and will continue to find themselves falling behind.

Question 85

Offensive realism

Answer 85

is a structural theory belonging to the neorealist school of thought first postulated by John Mearsheimer that holds that the anarchic nature of the international system is responsible for aggressive state behaviour in international politics.

Question 86

Graham Allison - “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis”

Answer 86

ORGANIZATIONAL PROCEDURES AND BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS
o Central point is the difficulty in proving exactly why a government follows a particular course of action
o 3 models of government action:
1. The state acts as a unitary rational actor to make “decisions.”
2. The sub-units of the state act according to pre-determined procedures to produce an “output.” The state is still essentially a unitary actor
3. Those in charge of various state responsibilities (Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, etc.) make predictable arguments based on their present position. Policy “outcomes” are the result of negotiations among these leaders.

Question 87

Collective Action Problem

Answer 87

Challenge to figure out who will act against a problem because of a fear that you will pay more than the others, but all will benefit (ex free rider problem-NATO)-solve through institutions