theme 7 Flashcards
Benefits of economic openness
Specialization and efficiency
Trade-related gains
Competition
Diversity of goods and services
International diversification
Financing of domestic investment by foreigners
Technology and capital by foreign direct investment
Opportunities for developing countries
Downward pressure on P
Access to more funding
Nominal exchange rate
Indirect quotation/the one we use:
How many CAD (domestic) for 1 US (foreign)
Increase: depreciation domestic
Direct quotation:
How many US (foreign) for 1 CAD (domestic)
Increase: appreciation domestic
Factors that affect e (Nominal exchange rate)
Money supply: an increase decrease the value of the currency
Political events
Sanctions
International trade
Tourism
Real exchange rate with indirect quotation
Basket price ratio (identical baskets) between 2 economies with different currencies
Price of foreign basket in domestic currency = eP*
Price of domestic basket in domestic currency = P
E = eP*/P
Real exchange rate (E) 3 possibilities
E > 1: foreign basket is more expensive than domestic basket
E = 1: basket costs the same everywhere
E < 1: foreign basket is cheaper than the domestic basket
E always > 0
Depreciation and appreciation of real E
Increase E; real depreciation
- Increase of the price of foreign basket (eP*)
- Decrease of the price of the domestic basket (P)
Decrease E; real appreciation
- Decrease of the price of foreign basket (eP*)
- Increase of the price of domestic basket (P)
Effects of changes of real exchange rate (E) on NX
Decrease in E (real appreciation):
- our goods more expensive for foreigners
- foreigners will demand less of canadian goods
- decrease of EX & NX
- foreign goods are cheaper for us; increase of demand in foreign goods; increase IM
real depreciation: increase NX
- domestic goods cheaper for foreigners (increase EX)
- foreign goods more expensive for us (decrease IM)
PPP model assumptions
- No transportation costs
- The basket is identical between economies
- No differences in taxation
- No trade barriers
- Perfect information
PPP
E = eP*/P = 1
eP* = P
e = P/P*
relative PPP
An economy with higher inflation than another economy in the LR should have a rise in e in the LR: depreciation
ge = gp - gp*
ge = domestic inflation - foreign inflation
Higher permanent LR inflation suggests higher Ms growth and thus a loss in the value of money in LR (depreciation)
Higher inflation: supposed to depreciate
Overvalued or undervalued according to the PPP?
E > 1:
If P/P* remains stable, e should decrease to decrease E (go to 1)
Currency should appreciate (decrease) in LR
Currency is undervalued (over depreciated) for now
E < 1:
e should increase to increase E (go to 1)
Currency should depreciate (increase) in the LR
Currency is overvalued (over appreciated) for now
Foreign exchange risk
If want to invest CAD in US:
1. Convert CAD to USD (e* CAD)
2. (1) * i
if e doesn’t change: return = i
if e increase: make money
if e decrease: loose money
Domestic return & foreign return
Domestic return: i
Foreign return: i* + (e**a - e)/e
Interest rate parity (IRP)
i = i*+ (e**a - e)/e
return domestic = return foreign
e and the expected return on foreign deposits go in opposite directions; the better return (R), the lower the e
return on domestic deposits: e doesn’t affect your return
IRP condition is met when the 2 curves cross each other
AD-AS in open economy
Increase of i:
decrease C & I; decrease AD
effect of exchange rate: appreciation (e decrease); NX decrease
AD is moving more in an open economy
Increase of Ms:
lower interest rate
increase C & I; AD increases
effect of exchange rate: depreciation (e increases); NX increases
AD is increasing even more