Theme 3 - Business Decisions & Strategy Flashcards
Definition of sales forecasting (time series analysis)
A statistical technique which uses historical data to make predictions about the future value of sales
What are 4 main components a business wants to identify using a sales forecast
- The trend (e.g. upward)
- Seasonal fluctuations
- Cyclical fluctuations
- Random fluctuations
What can a business do with sales forecast information
• Organise production
• organise resources
• organise marketing to back up sales predictions
Name 3 factors affecting sales forecasting
• consumer trends
• economic variables
• actions of competitors
How do you calculate 3 year moving averages
- Add the first 3 months/ years of data
- Divide this by 3
- Plot in middle year row
- Move down a year and repeat
How do you center data (centring) / find 4 year centred moving average
- Find 4 year moving total (add first 4 years then move along one)
- Add the first two 4yr moving averages together to get 8 year moving total
- Divide this by 8 (this is the trend line on graph)
- Put figure in middle year of the 5 years used
How do you find the variation (sales forecasting)
Sales - trend (4 year centred moving average)
Use a + or - if below or above trend
How do you construct a sales forecasting graph
X axis = Time
Y axis = sales
Plot raw sales and the trend line (line of best fit)
What do the values of correlation co-efficient signify
+1 = absolute positive relationship between variables
0 = no relationship between variables
-1 = absolute negative relationship between variables
What is an independent variable & what axis would it be
The factor that cause the other variable to change (x axis)
What is a dependent variable & what axis would it be
The variable being influenced by the independent variable (y axis)
Name 3 limitations of sales forecasting
- past performance is no guarantee of future
- SWOT & PESTLE factors can affect future predictions
- dynamic markets change rapidly and have a short product life cycle therefore extrapolation can be misleading, time-consuming, unreliable & complex
What is a current ratio (definition)
A measure of a company’s ability to meet financial obligations (found on statement of financial position)
For every £1 or debt, the business has £n of assets
What is a current ratio (calculation)
Current ratio = current assets / current liabilities
Expressed as n:1
Ideal = 1.5:1
What does a current ratio higher than 1.5:1 mean
Too high = assets are sitting there/ money is tied up in the business & not being used efficiently/ could be better invested in the business
What is Acid Test (definition)
Tests liquidity of a business without including stock (found on statement of financial position)
What is Acid Test (calculation)
= (Current assets - inventory) / current liabilities
Expressed as n:1
Min = 1:1
What is Capital employed (definition)
The value of money in assets minus the value of any short-term borrowed finance
What is Capital employed (calculation)
(Non-current assets + current assets) - current liabilities
OR
total equity + non-current liabilities
Expressed as a figure
What is Gearing ratio (definition)
Looks at long-term finance of the business and where it comes from
What is Gearing Ratio (calculation)
= Non-current liabilities/ capital employed X100
Expressed as a %
What does the gearing ratio % show
Over 50% = a high gearing (most money is borrowed)
- very risky & deters potential investors
Less than 50% = low geared (most money comes from within)
What is Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (definition)
A measure of profitability, demonstrates how hard the business made the money invested work
What is Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (calculation)
= operating profit / capital employed X 100
Expressed as a %
• the higher the better
What do Porter’s 5 factors determine
The profitability & attractiveness of an industry
What is porter’s 5 forces
Threat of new entrants
Supplier power
Buyer power
Threat of substitution
Competitive rivalry (in the middle)
Name two things SWOT analysis can be used for
• to formulate a growth strategy & maximise opportunities
• to compete/ defend to minimise threats
• to improve & attack new markets
• to identify when/what to change and retreat
What does SWOT stand for
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
What is SWOT (definition)
A business analysis tool that aims to look at internal & external factors and their influence on a business
What is PESTLE (definition)
A business analysis tool that aims to look at external factors & how they may have an impact on the business
Name two ways PESTLE can be used
• aids strategic & tactical decision-making
• objective setting
• help the business reach their goals
What does PESTLE stand for
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Legal
Ethical/ environmental
What is Ansoff’s matrix (definition)
A growth planning & analysis tool that helps a business decide on marketing strategies which products/ markets to sell in based on risk & reward
What are the 4 aspects of Ansoff’s Matrix
• Market penetration (existing market & product)
• Product development (existing market & new product)
• Market development (new market & existing product)
• Diversification (new market & new product)
What is working capital (calculation)
= current assets - current liabilities
Name 3 factors affecting the level of working capital
• seasonal changes in demand
• need to hold inventories
• production lead time
• lean production
• effectiveness of credit control function
• credit offered by suppliers
Name 2 main causes of working capital problems
• poor control of inventories
• poor control of receivables
• ineffective use of payables
• poor cash flow forecasting
• unexpected events
What is a strategy
The long-term direction that a firm will take to achieve its aims & objectives (pro active decision making in line with objectives)
What is a tactic
A short-term response to opportunities & threats in the market (day to day & more responsive/ reactive external influences)
Give an example of a Strength (SWOT) for a business
High sales volume & market share
Reputation / brand
Give an example of a Weakness (SWOT) for a business
Low sales vol & MS
Bad brand reputation
Bad leadership
Give an example of an Opportunity (SWOT) for a business
New tech/ advancements
Trends
First mover advantage of gap
Give an example of a Threat (SWOT) for a business
Legislation
Competitors
Economic situation
What is a mission statement
A formal summary of the aims & values of a company / organisation
What is a corporate objective
A focus on a desired performance & results of the business/ what it wants to achieve over time
What is a functional objective
Set to help make achievements of the corporation possible
What must objectives be
Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Realistic
Time - related
Give an advantage and disadvantage of corporate objectives
+ focuses business & involves all
+ creates an identity in comp market
- can be unrealistic / over optimistic
- constantly needs reassessing for relevance
What is a corporate strategy
The way in which the business works to achieve a vision / goal
What is corporate planning
It’s building a strategy to complete business aims & objectives
What are porters generic strategies (definition)
It identifies a sustainable strategy to gain a competitive advantage (a value that can’t be beaten by competition)
Give an advantage and disadvantage of porters generic strategies
+ establishes a clear direction
- may not be relevant in dynamic markets
- dated as it’s possible to be stuck in middle and successful (e.g. Amazon)
What do Porters generic strategies consist of
Factors in niche or mass & low cost of differentiation:
•Cost leader ship (mass & low cost)
•Differentiation (mass & diff)
•Cost focus (niche & low cost)
•Differentiation focus (niche & diff)
What is the Boston Matrix (definition)
An analysis tool which enables a business to identify where their products are in terms of market growth & market share
[Business wants balance]
What does the Boston Matrix consist of
Factors in Market share & Market growth:
Star (high MS & MG)
Question mark (high MG & low MS)
Cash cow (low MG & high MS)
Dog (low MG & MS)
Give an advantage and disadvantage of the Boston Matrix
+ helps analyse issues with product portfolio
+ helps decide future strategies and budgets
- high MS doesn’t always = high profit
- true nature of business not reflected, MS & MG not only indicators
What is a Distinctive Capability
A form of competitive advantage that is difficult for competitors to understand, let alone imitate (an ongoing competitive advantage)
What do Kay’s Distinctive Capabilities consist of
Architecture
Innovation
Reputation
What are the 5 theories that can help decide corporate strategies
- Product life cycle
- Ansoff’s Matrix
- Porter’s generic strategy
- Boston Matrix
- Kay’s distinctive capabilities
What is a business growth
The point at which a business needs to expand & seeks options to generate more profits
What are 4 objectives of growth
- EofS (internal & external)
- Increased market power
- Increased MS & brand recognition
- Increased profitability
What is economies of scale (EofS)
Where producing more output lowers the average costs of the business
What is financial EofS
Where large firms can benefit from cheaper loans & wider sources of cheap finance
What is purchasing EofS
Where big firms are able to buy in bulk & get discounts
What is technical EofS
Where large firms employ specialist labour & capital which further stimulates lower costs, productivity and quality
What is managerial EofS
Large firms have the £££ & resources to attract the best managers that make the most efficient decisions & increase efficiency overtime
What is risk-bearing EofS
Where large firms benefits from a wider product range that spreads risk & enables business to withstand changes in demand
What are 3 problems caused by growth
• diseconomies of scale (internal & external)
• overtrading (accepts more orders than can cope which = cash flow issues)
• internal communication
What is inorganic growth
Where businesses grow through joining together in a takeover or merger
What is a takeover/ acquisition
A legal deal where one larger business purchases another (at least 51% ownership)
What is a merger
A legal deal that brings together 2 businesses under 1 board of directors and operate as one (usually similar sized businesses)
What is horizontal integration
When 2 businesses merge/ takeover from the same stage in production (e.g. O2 & virgin Media)
What is vertical integration
When 2 businesses merge/ takeover from a different stage in production (e.g. Booker & Tesco)
What is the CMA (Competition & Markets Authority) and what do they do
Competition regulators that scrutinise mergers / takeovers
They make markets fair for consumers (e.g. stopped Asda & Sainsbury’s merge)
Give 3 reasons for M & As
• Quicker than organic growth
• increased MS
• gain of resources and expertise
• to exploit synergies ( better performance when 2 companies work together)
• defence against competing alone