The Use of Force

Question 1

The Use of Force

Answer 1

• Coercive diplomacy involves the use of threats and or limited force in order to convince an actor to stop or undo actions already taken
• CD can include economic, military and even sport sanctions
• CD can employ limited means of force
○ Full scale force means it has failed

Question 2

US-led sanctions

Answer 2

• Types of sanctions
		○ Economic/finance 
		○ Trade
		○ Diplomatic
		○ International
	• Countries under sanctions by the US
		○ Iran 
		○ North Korea 
		○ Zimbabwe
		○ Sudan
		○ DR Congo

Question 3

US coercive diplomacy in action

Answer 3

• Since the end of the cold war the US has been relatively bad at translating its overwhelming military superiority into coercive diplomacy success
• The actual use of force also represents a failure of CD
○ Iraq 1991 and 2003
○ Afghanistan 2001
• As of course does the failure to achieve desired aims
○ Iran
○ North Korea
○ Syria

Question 4

The Libya Case

Answer 4

• The end of the Cold War made it easier for the US to threaten and use force because the risk of unconrolled escalation vanished
• Nevertheless, Libya in 2003 is really the only good example of CD working
○ Libya agrees to give up its WMD programmes
• Why?
○ A deft balance of carrots and sticks
○ Proportionality
○ Multilateral support
○ Shift in Gaddafi’s interests
○ (Initial successes in Afghanistan and Iraq)
• Libya had something it was prepared to give up and the US had something Libya wanted

Question 5

The Afghanistan case

Answer 5

• Following 9/11, the US called on the Taliban to give up all terrorists involved in the attack
○ US issued an ultimatum
• Ultimately the Taliban were not prepared to give up bin Laden whatever the inductments
○ The only option open was war
○ War with Afghanistan represented a failure of CD

Question 6

Why has the UD found CD so difficult

Answer 6

• The US must frighten and reassure at the same time
○ It is difficult to balance these seemingly contradictory pressures
• The subject of CD must be something that the country under threat is willing to forego
○ Can it only be successful in cases where ‘national interest’ isn’t perceived to be at stake?
• Problems with Sanctions
○ Hits the most vulnerable
○ Undermines domestic support for US actions
• The need for multilateral support
○ Syria? - US and EU support but no support from Russia
• The threat of the US use of force must be credible
• The rise of non-state actors has made things more complicated
○ Civil war, guerrilla war, ethnic conflict, terrorism

Question 7

Preventive and pre-emptive force

Answer 7

• In some cases it becomes clear that military force and war may be the only option available to the US
○ Afghanistan
○ Iran/North Korea?
• BUT resulting to war also complicates things
○ What justifies using force
○ Unilateral or multilateral
○ UN sanctioned
○ Objectives?
§ Regime change, Disarmament, Military capabilities
• When should the US use force as part of its policy
○ Before the threat matrialises
○ After the threat has materialised
• How much and what type is necessary, justified and acceptable

Question 8

Iraq; Pre-emption or prevention

Answer 8

• Was Iraq war fought due to an impending threat/imminent attack
  
  • Was Iraq war fought to prevent a future threat emerging from Iraq

Question 9

Iran Nuclear Deal

Answer 9

• After 9/11, option of force was on the table
  
  • The 2015 Iranian nuclear deal made this unlikely
  • Israel is worried that its window to strike is closing
    
    • Obama was worried about an Israeli strike
  • Obama
    
    • “Iran’s leaders should know that I do not have a policy of containment - I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon”
    • “… And as I’ve made clear time and again during the course of my presidency, I will not hesitate to use force when it is necessary to defend the United States and its interests.”
  • Was this a victory for coercive diplomacy?
  • But, US left the Iran deal in 2018
    
    • Is Donald Trump seeking to coerce Iran by “tearing” up the Iran deal?

Question 10

Syria

Answer 10

• Obama originally said he would intervene if Assad crossed ‘red line’ and uses WMDs
  * Failed to respond despite use of chemical weapons
  * But did authorise some air strikes and some boots on the ground (special operations)
  
  • Russia’s intervention (on the side of Assad) has made this more tricky
  • Trump – the focus has switched
    
    • ”smash ISIS”
    • But, troop withdrawal (Oct 2019)

Question 11

North Korea

Answer 11

• Under US sanctions since the 1950s
  * Still technically at war!
  
  • NK has spent three decades building a nuclear device
    
    • First test 2006
    • More tests since…
  • There is virtually nothing left to sanction
    
    • Shows limits of this approach
  • Trump and North Korea…
    
    • Coercive diplomacy or war?