The Prediction Problem

Question 1

What did Wolfgang’s birth cohort teach us?

Answer 1

It showed the percentage of any group of males who commit crime, showed us the percentage of career criminals, and that most delinquents stopped committing illegal acts at some point.

Question 2

What is the beginning of the criminal career called?

Answer 2

The onset

Question 3

To identify career criminals, what do we need to identify?

Answer 3

The frequency of the crimes committed

Question 4

What are the three basic methods for predicting criminal behavior?

Answer 4

1) Actuarial approach that relies on patterns of behavior among individuals with similar characteristics
2) Prior history approach that examines the past of the individual and
3) Clinical evaluation which relies on assessments of trained experts

Question 5

What did Wenk’s test include to help predict the likelihood of crime commission?

Answer 5

Prior record and clinical assessment

Question 6

Why didn’t Wenk’s test work?

Answer 6

It only identified ~50% of the defendants as violent (true positives) and 50% as non-violent (false negatives) and many were incorrectly identified as violent (false positives)

Question 7

What percentage of case predictions of dangerousness was wrong in the Texas Defender Service study?

Answer 7

95%

Question 8

As offender criminal history scores _________, so did recidivism rates.

Answer 8

As offender criminal history scores increased, so did recidivism rates.