The EU and Russia Flashcards
The Early 1990s; Immediate post-Cold War
Period of turmoil internationally and domestically
Severe Economic difficulties. Loses Soviet planned economy and relationships with central and Eastern European countries.
Legacy of a discredited political system. Perceived to be the loser of the Cold War. Rebuild a new political system. Liberal capitalist or authoritarian leadership?
Attempt to democratize with no tradition of democracy. Building from scratch, Different to Germany which had the foundations f democracy from the Weimar Republic.
Potential for political extremism. 1995 - communist party makes a big come back. Russians disillusioned with the state of the economy, and standard of living after the cold war.
Radical weakening of international position, Russian credibility collapses and sense of authority in the world.
Sense of national humiliation. Emphasis on regathering Russian greatness and restoring identity for Russia.
Nuclear proliferation in Eastern Europe.
Dmitry Rogozin, Russian ambassador to NATO, 2008
‘We are like a wolf that has been surrounded and that provokes our hunter’s instinct’
Shared security concerns between the EU and Russia
Trans-national organized crime
Drug and human trafficking
Money Laundering
Nuclear safety
Environmental pollution
International terrorism
Shared economic concerns between the EU and Russia
Russia needs to import technology and technical expertise. Primarily form the European Union.
Pre-Ukraine war Russia was the 3rd largest trading partner with the EU after USA and China.
2019: About 85% of EU exports to Russia were manufactured goods (e.g. Cars, mobile phones, aircraft). Area where the Russian economy is far behind.
About 70% of imports from Russia were energy (oil, gas, coal). Hydrocarbon energy is the single most important good from Russia with the EU. Interdependence between the 2.
Consequences of the 2004 enlargement
Lengthening of direct borders
Cut across Russian interests in CEECs
Encroached upon Russian diaspora e.g. Kaliningrad. Completely surrounded by EU territory. Political and security implications.
Created eastern zone between EU and Russia of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. Strategically, much more sensitive. Much more clash points.
Increases economic interdependence. Brings into the EU former Russian markets.
Structures of EU-Russia Relations
1991 - Financial assistance under the TACIS (Traditional Aid to the Commonwealth of independent states) Programmes to assist the transition to democracy. €2.7 since then.
Under the programmes €500 million to improve nuclear safety.
1994 - (1997) partnership and cooperation agreement (PCA). Conditions of democratic stability are not sufficient to allow the agreement to go through. 3 wasted years of EU Russian relations, tensions between Russia and the West increase, particularly in the Balkan wars.
1999 - Common EU strategy on Russia.
1999 Russian ‘medium-term strategy for development of relations’
Creation of the four common spaces (May 2003)
Common economic space (investment, energy, climate change). Russia needs western development to stimulate the economy.
Common space of freedom, security and justice. (Visas, Human Rights)
Column space on External security (co-operation, effective multilateralism). Timing - lead up to the Iraq War. Russian firm stance, EU divided. Common fear of unilateralist overdrive.
Common space on health, Education, and culture. (science, higher education, arts, cultural, diversity). For Russia, research is dominant. In certain areas they have a lead position, in other areas they need to learn to gain position.
Russia-Georgia War (August 2008)
Russia reasserting position.
Conflict over 2 regions within Georgia, with an allegiance to and support from Russia. South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.
Georgian troops invaded South Ossetia, claiming there were Russian troop movements (denied by the Russians)
Russia responds by invading Georgia. Renewed display of Russian military power.
Assert self in ‘sphere of privileged interests’
Example to immediate neighbors.
Demonstrating themself as not a ‘status quo’ player. Putin comes to power in the 2000s.
Direct clash with the EU emphasis on integration and rule of law. Changes dynamic of security and politics n Europe.
Difficulties in EU-Russia Relations
Russia is an ‘illiberal democracy’/’managed democracy’. Deep discontent within the construction of democracy. Power concentrated in Moscow with democratic footings.
Russia’s relations with key countries like Iran.
Encroaching on Russian sphere of influence. E.g. Serbia/Kosovo; eastwards expansion of NATO.
Value differences (sovereignty, human intervention, democracy). For Russia national sovereignty is inviolable. No willingness to share.
Different international Modus Operandi e.g. hard power - Feb. 2011 announced $650 million defense to spend in 2020/ commitment includes 8 nuclear subs, 600 jets, 1000 helicopters, 100 warships (inclu. 2 more helicopter carriers), 35 corvettes, 15 frigates. Not defense investments, they are power projective investments.
Potential economic and strategic friction (‘pipeline politics’)
Increasing Russian ‘Pushback’ (soft and hard power); sphere of influence, rival security architecture ideas) e.g.:
Cyber attack on Estonia in 2007
Ukraine Military action 2014
Consolidation of poor-Russia European leaderships e.g. Moldova and Bulgaria 2016. Expands Russian influence, weakens cohesion of the EU.
Current EU/Russia Relations
Russia progressively harder to deal with reassertion, greater self confidence
Russia priorities relationship with the US
February 2022 Russia invades Ukraine. Game changer.
How sustainable is Russia’s resurgence? Germany takes lead on this, EU effort to reduce Russian reliance, fast tracking energy source investment. Reducing Russian leverage in energy source production. ATM relations are largely broken and strategic partnership will not work.
