The electoral process and direct democracy

Question 1

E+A 3 factors that can affect the outcome of presidential elections in the USA

Answer 1

1. finance in US presidential elections
   2016, the total cost of the presidential election was $6.5 billion.
   2020 it was $14.4 billion
   The “Daisy” attack ad used by LBJ in the 1964 negative advertising that portrayed Senator Barry Goldwater, as a reckless warmonger, and contributed to Johnson’s landslide victory. Finally, it could be questioned just how effective outspending opponents can be. In 2016, money cannot buy an election. It partly depends on where and how the money is spent.
2. personalities and image of individual candidates,
   e.g. Trump as an experienced ‘dealmaker’ and billionaire, or Obama with a mixed-race
   background and making his own way up the political ladder without family wealth or political connections
   this reflects the more candidate-centred nature of US politics.
   different images and characteristics can sometimes appeal to one group of voters more than another,
   these images are often carefully crafted and embellished by campaign teams and
   publicity machines.
   They also need to link in with the nation’s ‘mood’ at any given time, e.g. Trump’s anti-establishment, outsider approach in 2016 or Biden’s safe pair of hands in 2020.
3. televised debates, starting with the first and perhaps most significant debate of Kennedy–Nixon in 1960.
   involves the candidates standing at podiums and answering questions posed by a moderator or panel, structured into segments on different topics, with rules in place to ensure equal time and opportunities for each candidate to speak and fact-checking of statements made.
   nowadays, TV debates are perhaps less significant as candidates usually prepare for them thoroughly and tend to ‘play safe’ on the
   night. There can still be slips-ups though, e.g. in 1992 when Bush Snr. was caught looking briefly at his watch, or in 2020 when the first debate between Trump and Biden received almost universal criticism and was labelled ‘a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck’ by CNN’s Jake Tapper.
   even when they are widely seen to have fared less well than their opponent as with Trump in 2016, this does not necessarily change the final election result.

Question 2

E+A 3 arguments that are used to justify the electoral college

Answer 2

1. in most years the Electoral College delivers the ‘right result’ as the winner of the popular vote also wins the most Electoral College votes (ECVs).
   2008 obama with 365 electoral votes 52% of popular vote 332 votes in 2012 so 51% popular vote .
   twice in recent years (2000 and 2016) the reverse has been true, which arguably undermines a core democratic principle.
   winning margin is usually exaggerated, as with
   Reagan in 1984 when 97% of the ECV on just 59% of the popular vote.
2. the College reflects the US federal structure, each state has its own slate of electors and that the election is state-based rather than a single national poll
   this still leads to smaller states being overrepresented, despite states being awarded ECVs on the basis of population or, more specifically, the size of their
   congressional delegation.
   Wyoming has over three times the national average of electors per voter, while some larger states, such as California, remain underrepresented in terms of the average
   number of electors per size of population.
3. the state-based format requires candidates to campaign across a wide range of states, not just large urban areas
   candidates instead focus their efforts on a handful of key ‘swing states’, such as North
   Carolina and Florida, with large but safe states, such as New York and California, reduced to spectator status.

Question 3

E+A the voting behaviour of 3 groups in the US elections

Answer 3

1. African-Americans,
   historically this group is the most ‘reliable’ voting bloc, traditionally favouring the Democrats by an overwhelming margin
   this began during the New Deal era but was reinforced during the civil rights era, and that many black civil rights leaders such as John Lewis and Jesse Jackson have been strongly aligned with the Democrats.
   their voting behaviour has been consolidated by some elements of the Republican Party taking a strong line on immigration and
   law and order, which has led to frequent accusations of ‘dog whistle politics’, especially under Trump.
   87% voted for Biden 81% for Clinton 2016
2. Hispanic bloc of voters, the ‘sleeping giant’, noting how this group is a less homogenous voting bloc than African-Americans and therefore both parties target this group
   for votes
   the historically lower turnout rates among Hispanic voters as well as the diversity within the group — Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans etc. as a whole, the group trends Democrat and now represents a particular threat to the Republicans in some of their traditional strongholds, such as Arizona and Texas. You could also explain that although some of the
   Hispanic vote swung Republican under Bush Jnr., Trump’s border wall rhetoric reduced the GOP’s appeal to this group of voters.
   65% voted for Biden 66% for Clinton
3. ‘religious right’, who represent the most reliable and consistent Republican voting bloc. white, Protestant, evangelical voters
   this group
   increasingly favours the Republicans, in particular their pro-life stance and emphasis on traditional family values, especially with regard to LGBTQ+ rights. You could also mention the strong support for Israel in this group, and that its members are mostly concentrated in the South/Bible Belt,
   which are also Republican strongholds. You could also comment on how record numbers from this group voted for Trump in 2016 despite his lack of a deeply committed personal religious faith and marital
   infidelities
   78% voted for Trump 2020 81% in 2016