The electoral process and direct democracy

Question 1

Give three ways in which a US election before 1980 could be defined as significant regarding changes in voting behaviour

Answer 1

1. Impact of the Republican ‘southern strategy’ in the 1968 election
   E.g. many conservative southerners deserted the Democrats due to Nixon’s focus on law and order and ‘traditional values’. Republicans won 7 of the 10 contests between 1968 and 2004
   (this led to Southern states swinging republican which led to Nixon winning the election)
2. In the 1964 election, black Americans began to swing in favour of the Democrats
   E.g. in the 1964 election Democrats made an appeal for new civil rights measures, which led to 50% of African-Americans self-identifying as Democrats in the 1960 National Election Study, compared to 82% in 1964
   (therefore this election is significant regarding changes in voting behaviour since many democrats decided to abandon the Republican party in pursuit of civil rights)

Question 2

Do recency factors influence voting behaviour? (short term)

Answer 2

1. Issues and policies
   E.g. in 2016 Trump emphasised restricting immigration ‘build that wall’, a travel ban on many Muslims and also tariffs on foreign imports
   (therefore policies which appeal to voters can help to decide an election, as it did in 2016)
2. The background and experience of the candidate
   E.g. in 2016 Clinton emphasised her experience as former First Lady, senator and Secretary of State. Trump emphasised his business record and anti-establishment status in politics: ‘drain the swamp’
   (therefore experienced candidates are more likely to win an election)
3. Mood of the nation
   E.g. in 2016 there was a strong populist sentiment and many worries about the future and America’s place in the world, which led to the election of Donald Trump
   (therefore, the mood of the nation can make or break an elections since Trump’s elections depended on this anti-populist feeling)

Question 3

Do primacy factors influence voting behaviour? (long term)

Answer 3

1. African-Americans tend to support Democrats
   E.g. In 2016 88% of African-Americans voted for Clinton
   (therefore, race is important in deciding elections as the vast African-Americans vote Democrat)
2. White evangelical Christians tend to vote Republican
   E.g. in 2016 81% of evangelical Christians voted for Trump
   (therefore, religion is a significant factor in determining elections as it creates a stark divide between voters)
3. Young people are only slightly inclined to vote Democrat
   E.g. 55% of under 30s voted Democrat
   (therefore, age cannot be seen as an effective way of determining elections as it creates a narrow divide between voters)