The electoral process and direct democracy

Question 1

What are the characteristics of US presidential and congressional campaigns?

Answer 1

1. Frequency, US politics involves ‘constant campaigning’
   E.g. National elections occur every 2 years but involve not only congressional elections (and presidential election every 4 years) but also those for state governments, governors and other local offices
2. Focus, US elections are dominated by personalities
   E.g. Much elections advertising does not even mention the candidate’s party
   (significant as candidates are largely responsible for their own fundraising and policy platform)
3. Format, campaigns involve extensive use of new and old media
   E.g. there are 3 televised debates for presidential elections, Clinton and Trump spent approx 81m dollars on Facebook ads
   (old media is less influential as voters today are more partisan)

Question 2

Are primaries effective?

Answer 2

1. Yes, they test candidates’ qualities for office
   E.g. fundraising, media presence, stamina and grasp of policy issues

No, this focuses on the candidates rather than the party or politics
E.g. ???

2. Yes, primaries are a better and more democratic way of electing a candidate than previous methods which were used
   E.g. ‘smoke-filled’ rooms where party bosses traditionally made these choices

No, open primaries can encourage voters to opt for the weakest candidate for the opposing party, known as ‘raiding’
E.g. in 2012 Wisconsin open primary, Mitt Romney won 44% of vote, Rick Santorum 37% of vote. However among Dems, Santorum beat Romney by 20% so voter sabotage is likely

3. Yes, staggered length of primary campaigns enable a wide range of states to influence the outcome, especially as larger states tend to vote later

No, jungle primaries can result in two candidates from the same party being selected
E.g. the 2016 California Senate election was between 2 democrats.

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Question 3

Are caucuses effective?

Answer 3

1. Yes, voting is open, not secret and each caucus can last several hours
   E.g. Iowa caucus
   (enables more thorough discussion and debate among party activists of candidate’s strengths and weaknesses)

No, caucuses are very time consuming
E.g. they usually last days
(draws strong party activists rather than moderate voters such as Bernie fans)

Question 4

What are national nominating conventions?

Answer 4

1. Unifying the party, especially after a bruising primary campaign
   E.g. Democrats and 2016
2. Held in swing states, conventions perhaps have a minor role in helping to win a battleground state
   E.g. the Democrats in 2016 held theirs in Pennsylvania which is swing state (and lost),
3. Successful conventions often leads to a short term boost in poll ratings and greater momentum for the candidate
   E.g. both Trump and Clinton received a short term boost in polls of around 4%.

Question 5

Is the electoral college a good system?

Answer 5

1. No, winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president
   E.g. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the election

Yes, this is very rare
E.g. happened twice since 1888 which was in 2000 and 2016. Only 167 faithless electors in history.

2. No, smaller states are over-represented
   E.g. California has one electoral voter per 712,000 people, while Wyoming has one electoral vote per 195,000 people

Yes, as this reflects the federal nature of the USA and ensures candidates campaign in a range of states, not simply in the most populated
E.g. candidates will have to campaign in smaller states like Wyoming rather than ignoring them for larger states like California who would have more electoral voters.

3. No, electoral College creates stable 2 party system
   E.g. it is a 2 party race, Gary Johnson in 2016 received no EC votes, unaffiliated to party.

Question 6

How does money affect the outcome of US elections?

Answer 6

1. Higher spending candidates tend to have a greater chance of winning elections
   E.g. around 80% of Senate and 90% of House elections are won by the candidate who spends more
2. Money is no guarantee of success
   E.g. in 2016 Clinton raised an spent more than Trump but lost the election
3. Money can be spent on advertising
   E.g. attack ads, such as Trump’s attack ads on Clinton’s corruption and deleted emails

Question 7

How does the media affect US elections?

Answer 7

1. Traditional media has become less effective
   E.g. traditionally, debates were important but not anymore as there are less independent voters willing to be swayed, and people get news from social media
2. Traditional media can still be important
   E.g. Obama in 2008 gained great publicity from traditional media, however in recent elections this has been less significant as candidates are already well known e.g. 2016 Trump and Clinton
3. Candidates spend increasingly on new media
   E.g. it is estimated that Trump and Clinton in 2016 spent $81million dollars on Facebook ads

4 . Much of broadcast media is already informally politically aligned
E.g. Fox News is predominantly watched by Republicans and CNN by Democrats
(limits medias power to change voting behaviour as Democrats do not tend to watch Republican media and vice versa)

Question 8

How do issues affect US election?

Answer 8

1. At different times, different issues dominate
   E.g. in 2004, the main issue was security and foreign policy after the 9/11 attacks
2. Candidates are normally keen to prioritise and get media coverage on issues they feel strongest for and to downplay policy areas where they may appear vulnerable
   E.g.????

Question 9

How does leadership affect US elections?

Answer 9

1. ?

Question 10

How does incumbency affect US elections?

Answer 10

1. Incumbents in Congress enjoy high re-election rates
   E.g. in 2016, 93% of Senators and 98% of House members were re-elected
2. Incumbent president’s rarely lose
   E.g. since 1945, only 4 US presidents have failed to be re-elected, including Trump in 2020
3. Incumbents tend to do better since they raise and spend more money
   E.g. in 2016 Senate elections, the incumbents raised on average 8.7 million dollars while the challengers raised just under 600k.

Question 11

Why is the cost of US elections so high?

Answer 11

1. SC decisions has weakened laws preventing donations
   E.g. Citizen’s United v FEC 2010
2. There is a large number of well funded pressure groups
   E.g. the NRA spend and donate generously to campaigns and causes that support their aims
3. Spending more can give a competitive advantage in races
   E.g. around 80% of Senate and 90% of House elections are won by the candidate who spends more
   (2016 is an exception)

Question 12

Should campaign finance be reformed in the USA?

Answer 12

1. Yes, the cost of elections means that only the personally wealthy or well connected can afford to enter politics
   E.g. Donald Trump ran in 2016, he was both well connected and wealthy
   (this heightens the elitist nature of US politics)

No, fundraising and political donations are a crucial part of the democratic process
E.g. they allow supporters to show additional loyalty to their favoured candidates and causes

2. Yes, the SC’s decisions have added to the problem, instead this issue needs to be tackled by a constitutional amendment that expressly allows Congress to limit campaign finance
   E.g. Citizen’s United v FEC 2010

No, the SC has merely upheld crucial 1st amendment rights.
E.g. the right to freedom of speech through donations, as corporation were fundamentally individuals.

3. Yes, the emphasis on fundraising distracts elected representatives
   E.g. they should be focusing on doing their real job: making laws and listening to all their constituents

No, candidates still need to listen to a wide range of their voters
E.g. they often call ‘town hall’ meeting to hear their constituents’ views. Congress’ unproductivity is due to hyper-partisanship rather than distractions from fundraising.

Question 13

What are the types of direct democracy in the US?

Answer 13

1. Referendums, which are laws drawn up by state legislatures which are given to the people to accept or reject. This can include the ability to veto a recent controversial law
   E.g. in 2016 a measure in Alabama was voted on to alter the procedures for the impeachment of state officials
2. Recall elections, allow state-level officials such as governors to face a public vote before their term finishes, initiated by voters
   E.g. in June 2018, local judge in California, Aaron Persky was successfully recalled for giving a lenient decisions in a sexual assault case
3. Ballot initiatives, initiated by voters, certain states require varying numbers of signatures
   E.g. in 2016 9 states have held ballot initiatives to legalise marijuana. Cannabis in South Dakota has been legalised due to a ballot initiative in 2020.

Question 14

Does direct democracy help democracy?

Answer 14

1. No, this can lead to the ‘tyranny of the majority’, namely voters passing laws that negatively impact a minority
   E.g. residents of Alabama voting to make driving-license exams exclusively English, regardless of any special needs by residents from foreign countries.

Yes, all voters have a direct say in framing laws, they can veto a law if they disagree
E.g. in 2016 a measure in Alabama was voted on to alter the procedures for the impeachment of state officials

2. No, can lead to inconsistencies and variation in laws
   E.g. since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been 14 ballot initiatives attempting to abolish the death penalty. This has led to states like California keeping the death penalty but states like Virginia abolishing it

Yes, promotes a variation in laws between different types of state
E.g. liberal states like California have legalised marijuana, whereas it is still banned in conservative states like Kansas

3. Yes, pressure groups often get involved
   E.g. the NRA publicly backed a 2014 measure in Alabama to strengthen 2nd Amendment rights

Question 15

Do primacy factors influence voting behaviour? (long term)

Answer 15

1. (race)
   Yes, African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians tend to vote democrat, white voters tend to support Republicans
   E.g. In 2016 88% of African-Americans, 66% of Hispanics and 65% of Asian-Americans voted for Clinton, while 59% of white voters supported Trump

(gender)
No, women are only slightly more inclined to vote Democrat, men are only slightly more inclined to vote Republican
E.g. In 2016 54% of women voted for Clinton while 53% of men voted Trump

2. (religion)
   Yes, white evangelical Christians tend to vote Republican, non-religious voters tend to vote Democrat
   E.g. in 2016 81% of evangelical Christians voted for Trump, 68% of non-religious voters voted Clinton

(wealth)
No, richer voters do not overwhelmingly vote Republican, poorer voters do not overwhelmingly vote Democrat
E.g. in 2016 both candidates received 47% of the vote from these earning over 100k, Democrats only received 53% of votes for those earning under 50k

3. (geography)
   Yes, rural areas favour Republicans, urban areas favour Democrats
   E.g. in 2016 90% of urban areas were won by Clinton, 75-90% of rural areas backed Trump

(age)
No, young people are only slightly inclined to vote Democrat, older voters are only slightly more inclined to support Republicans
E.g. 55% of under 30s voted Democrat, 52% of over 65s voted Republican.

Question 16

Do recency factors influence voting behaviour? (short term)

Answer 16

1. Issues and policies
   E.g. in 2016 Trump emphasised restricting immigration ‘build that wall’, a travel ban on many Muslims and also tariffs on foreign imports. Clinton strongly opposed all these policies
2. Personalities, including the background and experience of the candidate
   E.g. in 2016 Clinton emphasised her experience as former First Lady, senator and Secretary of State. Trump emphasised his business record and anti-establishment status in politics: ‘drain the swamp’
3. Mood of the nation
   E.g. in 2016 there was a strong populist sentiment and many worries about the future and America’s place in the world, which led to the election of Donald Trump

Question 17

Which elections have realigned voters pre-1980?

Answer 17

1. Impact of the Republican ‘southern strategy’ in the 1968 election
   E.g. many conservative southerners deserted the Democrats due to Nixon’s focus on law and order and ‘traditional values’
2. Breakup of the Democrat ‘solid South’, which over the next 30–40 years would become a Republican ‘solid South’, leading to Republicans dominating the presidency
   E.g. Republicans won 7 of the 10 contests between 1968 and 2004
3. Emergence of a clearer conservative/liberal divide between the two parties
   E.g. Republicans focused on tough law-and-order policies and a conservative stance on social issues.

Question 18

Which elections have realigned voters post-1980?

Answer 18

1. Voters support populism over experience and mainstream politicians
   E.g. in 2016 Trump won, despite being a political outsider with no experience, and outsider candidate Bernie Sanders came very close to defeating Clinton in the primaries
2. Many previously loyal Rust Belt states such as Ohio and Wisconsin swung behind Trump, attracted by his promises on jobs and trade
   E.g. Trump was victorious in Wisconsin which was last won by Republicans in 1984, which tipped him over the winning line in 2016, despite losing the popular vote
3. The main change was among less well-educated whites in Upper Midwest states like Michigan and Ohio
   E.g. 62% of Ohio whites went for Trump in 2016, compared to 2012 when Romney won 57% of white votes.

Question 19

What is split ticket voting?

Answer 19

1. Split ticket voting is the ability to vote for candidates from different parties for different election posts in the same election
   E.g. in 2016, voting for Trump as president but voting for a Democrat as one’s House member or senator
2. There remains considerable split ticketing with local state elections
   E.g. ‘blue’ Massachusetts elected a Republican governor in 2014, while ‘red’ Montana elected democrat governor in 2016
3. The growth of hyper-partisanship has made this much less common
   E.g. in 2016, every state where there was a Senate race voted for the same party’s candidate as the president, by contrast in 1988 the figure was only 50%

Question 20

What is abstention?

Answer 20

Abstention is not voting

1. Abstention is significant in presidential elections
   E.g. in 2016 presidential election only 55.7% of the voting age population (VAP) turned out to vote
   (contrast to 2017 UK general election of 69%)
2. Abstention is ever greater for primaries and caucuses
   E.g. in the Kansas caucuses it was 5.5%
3. African American turnout surpasses that for whites
   E.g. in 2012 there were 66.6% of eligible African-American voters who turned out compared to 64.1% of white voters
4. Women are more likely to vote than men
   E.g. in 2016 63% if eligible women turned out compared to 58% of men
5. Older people are more likely to vote than younger ones
   E.g. in 2016, 70% of those aged over 70 voted, compared to just 43% of 18-24 year olds

Question 21

What are reasons for low turnout in the USA?

Answer 21

1. Voter registration requirements
   E.g. US citizens must positively ‘opt in’ to get on the voter list
   (in the UK, the state registers all voters automatically)
2. New photo ID laws
   E.g. in Texas, voters are required to produce government-issued photo ID such as a passport
   (discriminates ethnic minorities and poorer voters)
3. Lack of voter choice
   E.g. there are only 2 main parties, any other votes are essentially wasted