The Decision- Making Process in a Complex Situation (Bennet)

Question 1

Knowledge

Answer 1

The capacity (potential and actual) to take effective action.

Question 2

Situation

Answer 2

An issue, problem, condition, opportunity or bounded system that the decision maker believes needs to be changed, improved, transformed.

Question 3

Complicated systems are not dynamic (the connections between the parts are fixed)

Answer 3

Hence, complicated systems do have a solution (systems).

Question 4

Complex situations (problem) is difficult to define and may significantly change in response to some solution

Answer 4

Complex situations may not have a single “right” answers; has many interrelated causative forces; has no (or few) precedents; has many stakeholders and is often surprise prone.

Question 5

Complex situations are referred to as “messes”

Answer 5

These problems are dynamic, they consist of complex systems of CHANGING problems that interact with one another.

Question 6

So, in the case of (hazardous) child labour, there are complex systems of which have changing problems, of which interact with one another, such as ….

Answer 6

Child labour in mining persists because mining work is closely associated with economic and social disruption:
- The Economy of Congo
- The Mining Companies who own Cobalt Mines
- The poverty & low living standards in Congo (what’s causing the poverty? Low wages, no affordable education etc.,)
- Social disruption (such as civil wars break out which cut off normal commerce)
- The Increasing Market Demand for EVs, hence the rapidly growing demand for Cobalt & Lithium-Ion Batteries ( although Tesla is going to use NL, which does not use cobalt, & Apple plans to use only recycled batteries in its products by 2025)
- The poor regulations & governance of the Cobalt mining industry, resultant of external factors such as COVID-19, eliminating formalisation of female workers in cobalt mining, allowing children to continue working in the mines, workers have no PPE.
- The electronic industry (i.e. Foxconn & Apple), there is a need to keep long-term suppliers, they have the know-how to manufacture & assemble the products, such cases require auditing, yet firms at the same time want to meet the demand. Hence, there is a supply & demand side to forced labour.

Question 7

It should be clear that messes produce conditions where one knows a problem exists but it is not clear what the problem is

Answer 7

Hence, of the above complex systems, any one could be the problem - hard to say which it is.

Question 8

In a complex landscape, the problem or situation requires a decision that will most likely be unique & unprecedented..

Answer 8

Difficult to define or bound, & have no clear set of alternatives.

Question 9

Tools set for decision making for complex problems or issues

Answer 9

• experience,
• education
• relationship networks
• knowledge of past successes & historic individual preferences
• frames of reference,
• cognitive insights
• wellness (mental, emotional, & physical) .
• knowledge of related external & internal environmental pressures

Question 10

Decision support processes

Answer 10

• analytical hierarchy process
• systems dynamic modeling
• scenario development
• IT systems (includes situation & decision characteristics, outcome scenarios, a potential solution set, resources, goals, limits, & a knowledge of political, sociological, & economic ramifications).

Question 11

(1) Emergence

Answer 11

Emergent property of a complex system, exert a strong influence within the system, these are:
- culture
- trust
- attitudes
- organisational identity
- team spirit

Question 12

(2) Butterfly effect

Answer 12

• a small change in one part of the situation, which may initially go unrecognised in the environment - can, in certain circumstances, result in massive turbulence, disruption, surprise. The sudden change in the environment can be extremely hard to predict.

Question 13

^ Butterfly effect if Glencore were to stop its cobalt mining activities

Answer 13

• immediate detrimental effect on the local communities - losing their livelihoods.
  But a positive would be less heavy metal pollution & toxic waste disposal, improving the environment & health of community members.

Question 14

(3) A Tipping Point

Answer 14

A complex system changes slowly until all of a sudden it unpredictably hits a threshold which creates a large-scale change throughout the system.
* tipping points are typically unpredictable & can significantly change decision outcomes. Ideas - that spread like wildfire - take on a life of their own. (Slow market growth in niche market, then BOOM, takes off & company becomes a success)

Question 15

(4) Feedback loops

Answer 15

Feedback loops can either be self-reinforcing or damping, improving a situation or making it worse. *may be hard to identify initial cause-and-effect - as there typically are a large number of symptoms, causes, & reactions.

Question 16

Example of feedback loop

Answer 16

• excitement surge due to a successful event
• low morale due to over-controlling management ( low morale then again controlled by having management increase control)

Question 17

Power laws

Answer 17

A mathematical measure that brings together two parameters (measures) within some complex system.

Question 18

Trying to make sense of a complex problem

Answer 18

Understand the factors/ issues surrounding the situation:
- geographic
- topological
- financial
- economic
- political
- social / socioeconomic

Question 19

Determine the key relationships within the system

Answer 19

• observe
• study
• reflect
• experiment
• use intuition

Question 20

LOOK for the structural sources of multiple actions, interactions, events, & patterns.

Answer 20

• who influences what
• how work should really get done
• talk to people in the system

Question 21

• get a feel for the system - figure out if assumptions are correct, hence its important to identify..

Answer 21

Emergent properties (characteristics resulting from interactions within the system & can rarely be reduced to single sources)

Question 22

Example: production lines, products, etc.

Answer 22

Need for cohesion, correlation, & correspondence

Question 23

In complex systems, the cause-and-effect paths are too numerous, nonlinear, & have too many connections, hence it’s not possible to trace these cause-and-effect paths.

Answer 23

Complex systems unfold & evolve through multiples interactions & feedback loops; there is no small number of causes behind their movement.

Question 24

EFFORTFUL practice builds skill - practicing & playing with patterns over and over again, looking a nuances, trying small changes. Those who perform effortful practice have a store of structured knowledge, which is…

Answer 24

• they use long-term working memory,
• pattern recognition
• and chunking rather than logic as analysis.
  *leads to intuitive understanding, insight & judgement relative to the domain of interest.

Question 25

HUMAN additive factors:

Answer 25

• use group decision making as it helps bring multiple perspectives, create dialogue & inquiry, & improve overall understanding of a complex situation, which can then improve decision efficacy.

Question 26

Techniques for group discussion

Answer 26

• fishbones,
• probability distribution
• mind mapping
• linear extrapolation
• dialogue
  *but information saturation problem exists.

Question 27

So, ignore those aspects of the situation that are not directly related to the decision-maker’s goals or objectives.

Answer 27

• understand the values of the organisation
• & the complex situation
• the global vision & purpose of the organisation
• & their own local objectives.
  & HAVE AN understanding of the present vs future applicability of various events, actions, opportunities & threats in both the environment & the situation (e.g., Elon Musk using LFP batteries)

Question 28

Ultimately, learn to SIMPLIFY & FILTER the things not relevant & focus on those that are.

Answer 28

• networks & teams can help us gain a broader perspective (not be siloed in our own thoughts/ thinking) and help clarify confusion, paradoxes & uncertainties than what could be done individually.

Question 29

PREPARING for the decision process

Answer 29

• Journey
• desired future state

Question 30

Journey refers to the organisation…

Answer 30

Having the capacity & internal support mechanisms needed to implement the decision strategy.

Question 31

Managing risk & using a systems perspective, & network management, & critical thinking , & information literacy

Answer 31

Bureaucratic models of operating are not helpful for complex situations because there is no single cause of the problems & no single point of correction. (Complex systems have “in-build unpredictability”).

Question 32

Cane toad: the change works for some short time and then the complex system (organisation) rejects it & the problem returns, larger than before. (system dynamic modelling ; J.W. Forester)

Answer 32

Organisations have emergent properties such as culture

Question 33

Key point: you can’t solve a complex problem by eliminating the so called “cause” of it.

Answer 33

• the complex system has an equilibrium - this balance is disrupted - there are multiple actions, carefully selected & orchestrated to readjust the system to an expected state.

Question 34

Key point: prepare for rapid changes, those decisions will have unintended consequences , which may follow power law. The power law indicates that there is some relationship between the events (cane toad).

Answer 34

Gaussian distribution;
- tails on the end of the power distribution may be considerably stronger, sometimes by a factor of 100.
- Bell curve indicates, in existence, the independence of events.

Question 35

Key point: complex systems have multiple interrelationships, & therefore, follow some power law. A complex system has many interdependencies.

Answer 35

• so organisations need to adapt a culture that can respond to events and changes quickly - an ability to quickly react should be deliberately infused into the culture.
• supported by managers & leaders, & self-organisation , open communication & flexibility (take new risks, use the best from the past), robustness & resilience
• organisational adaptability (capacity to significantly change its internal structure as needed to resolve an external complex situation) - small- to medium, to large-scale flexible change. (Mutually beneficial co-evolution of the organisation and complex situation).

Question 36

Key point: the change is tied to implementation and the organisation and complex situation cannot be separated.

Answer 36

“ new learning” helps rethink the perspectives of reality, and in areas where the environment is complex.
- costs can be identified & watched but the payoff is fuzzy - not easy for organisations to create an organisation with all the above capacities.

Question 37

MECHANISM for influencing complex situations

Answer 37

• Theories: a generalised statement about reality that describes how things relate to each other in a given domain of inquiry.
• a frame of reference serve as a tool to observe & interpret the system from several perspectives (THIS IS what the teacher expects from us in the assignment!)

Question 38

Key point: apply multiple perspectives of frames of reference in your assignment. These concepts are…

Answer 38

• tipping point (experts say EVs are close to a tipping point!) https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2023/09/26/ev-appeal-growing-as-risk-and-novelty-fade/?sh=22dfbc6a6ba6#:~:text=A%20total%20of%2023%20countries,incentives%20are%20a%20big%20enabler.
• butterfly effect https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/butterfly-effect-how-software-scandal-changed-future-nerurkar
  https://www.engineerlive.com/content/butterfly-effect
• emergence
• feedback loops
• power laws
• nonlinearity

Question 39

Key point: interpretation of the future of a complex situation will involve some learning & some “living experience” for the decision-maker. Moreover, we begin this evaluation with…

Answer 39

• the ontology of the decision process, which represents the schema or set of characteristics surrounding the decisions strategy that would have an important influence on the desired outcome. (E.g. ICAS organisational model - the ontology would consist of the 8 emergent characteristics of the ICAS model).

Question 40

Structural adaptation (so use coupling to pull the problem situation along in the desired direction - the destination cannot be predicted however, because complex systems are nonlinear).

Answer 40

• Note: the organization may be part of the
  problem and any successful solution would include changes both inside the problem
  as well as in the surrounding organization.
  organization.
• In a sense, we have two coupled complex systems that are connected such that any change in one will change the
  other.

Question 41

Boundary management
(for example, the buyer may change the boundary conditions (purchase price, delivery schedule, quantity, etc.) to press the vendor to improve quality, forcing the problem into the vendor’s system)

Answer 41

Boundary management is a technique for influencing complex situations by
controlling/influencing their boundary.
- Changing
the information, funding, people, material, or knowledge that goes into or out of
a complex situation will impact its internal operation and behavior

Question 42

Absorption

Answer 42

Absorption is the act of bringing the complex situation into a larger complex system and letting the two slowly intermix, thereby resolving the original problem by dissolving the problem system.

Question 43

Optimum complexity
(By building more complexity into the decision plan – finding more alternatives for action, pivot points, feedback networks, etc. – you are better able
to deal with the unpredictable responses from the complex situation).

Answer 43

cybernetics
- more of a rule than a law, but is very useful when dealing with complex problems - it means that your decision plan must have more options available than the complex situation you are
dealing with.

Question 44

Simplification

Answer 44

Simplification reduces our own uncertainty, makes decisions easier, and allows
easy, logical explanations of those decisions.
- BUT COMPLEX problems are nonlinear in consequences, hence it is DANGEROUS, or even disastrous to simplify.
- It’s necessary to look at the whole system.

Question 45

Amplification

Answer 45

• This is
  a trial & error - testing
  approach where the situation is observed, then perturbed, and the response studied. This begins a learning process that helps the decision-maker better
  understand the problem
• Closely coupled to the sense and respond approach is that of amplification,
  used where the problem is very complex and the situation’s response is unknown.

Question 46

Seeding (design a set of actions to guide the situation to our intended outcome)

Answer 46

-emergence
multiple nonlinear interactions among agents of the system (people), it is
rarely possible to design a set of actions that will result in the desired solution.
- Emergence is not
random -its an interaction of a variety of elements -even if we can’t predict the exact emergent property, we may be able to create something (e.g., specific culture) that is acceptable, or perhaps better than the one we believe we needed.

Question 47

Key point for dealing with complex systems,…

Answer 47

In other words, sense and respond, trial and error, and amplification
used both as part of a decision strategy and as learning tools – coupled with a knowledge of complex systems, the use of teams, and the deliberate development
of intuition – suggest a valuable approach to dealing with complex systems

Question 48

THE CHALLENGE of making decisions for complex problems is that there may be no predictable end goal & no direct causal connection that works. But we have a toolkit at our disposal to help us construct a decision strategy & design a sequence of decisions & actions that lead toward an acceptable solution.

Answer 48

• So when justifying why hazardous child labour is a complex ethical problem, indicate that there is no single solution. It’s hard to identify the causal links between each issue. You may have intuition & insights, but you’ve got to show that we have to set up some initial sequences of action & evaluate the problem according to:
• boundary management
• key success factor influence
• identification of sources, sinks & regenerative loops.
• tipping points
• butterfly effects
• stability patterns
• emergency flows
• & miscellaneous perturbations.
  the complexity of the problem still prohibits predicting their paths*

Question 49

Rational decisions cannot account for the complexity of the problem, & therefore fail. But some have turned out to be right, not because they were logically right, but because of the complexity of the problem.

Answer 49

Hard to figure out if we can separate aspects of the system & complex situation. Took many unknowns i guess.