The Art of Thinking Clearly Flashcards
Social Proof
If fifty million people say something foolish, it is still foolish.
Solution: Do not follow others behaviors simply for the sake of being comfortable. Be logical in what you think and do.
Clustering Illusion
When it comes to pattern recognition, we humans are oversensitive. This often causes us to create patterns where there are none.
Solution: Regain your skepticism. If you think you have discovered a pattern, first consider it pure chance.
Swimmer’s Body Illusion
The confusion of selecting factors with results.
Solution: Keep in mind before starting a venture, whats seems to be the results could actually be the selecting factors.
Survivorship Bias
Because success is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your own chances of success.
Solution: Keep in mind, or even venture into the graveyard of failures and their probability.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The tendency to finish something or remain invested in something solely for the pursuit of consistency.
Solution: Do not see things through or stick things out for the wrong reasons. When making decisions, only consider future costs and benefits.
Reciprocity
An unwanted cycle of debt accrued and dispelled between people. Can be used as a manipulative tactic to entice something in return.
Solution: Do not accept free things, and if you do, consider what the donators intentions and goals are.
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to interpret new information so that it aligns with our existing theories, beliefs, and convictions.
Solution: Attempt to prove yourself wrong. The more correct you believe something to be, the more actively you should seek disconfirming evidence.
Authority Bias
When the irrational fear of seemingly superior people impedes logical decision making.
Solution: Challenge authority. No one’s opinions are “lesser” when rational and logical. Bowing to authority for its own sake can have detrimental effects on the whole.
