test prep Flashcards
In ranking, where is Russia in terms of area?
1st - 17 mlb sq km
In ranking, where is Russia in terms of population?
9th - 142 mln
In ranking, where is Russia in terms of GDP at PPP?
6th -
In ranking, where is Russia in terms of military expenditure?
4th
In ranking, where is Russia in terms of nuclear power?
1st - 6255
In ranking, where is Russia in terms of GDP per capita?
76th
power change in GDP?
1985 - 40%
2019 - 21%
What is power?
1- Robert Dahl (1957): it is not the resource-based property of one actor, but a relationship between at least two actors when A causes B to do something that B otherwise would not have done.
In other words, power is not based on what a country has, but what it can get other countries to do
2- Joseph Nye (2002): it is the ability to effect the outcomes you want, and if necessary, to change the behavior of others to make this happen
What are the aspects (kinds) of power?
1- Hard power (demographic, economic, and military might)
2- Soft power (attractiveness of a country’s image and model of development, effectiveness of diplomacy, cultural achievements, diaspora’s activities) examples: Switzerland, Taiwan
What is needed to exercise power?
Strategic purpose and national will. The ability to mobilize human and natural resources for state purposes
Russia’s long-term challenges? (5)
1- Population decline 2- Inefficient economy 3- Bad governance 4- Corruption 5-Non-democratic political system
Schools of foreign policy thought in Russia? (3)
1-Pro-Western liberal
2-Realists or statists
3-Nationalists
A) Neo-imperialists
B) Ethnic nationalistsRussia’s strategic aims?
4
1-Preventing Western influence in Russian domestic politics (key point to understand foreign policy)
2-Maintaining national sovereignty by keeping nuclear parity with the United States
3-Limiting the America’s world-leadership role
4-Limiting the Western influence in the “post-Soviet space”
four main concepts to Russia foreign policy? (4)
- Compatriots abroad
- The Russian World
- Divided Russian people
- Russian civilization
Implications for Europe and Eurasia?
1- Adversarial relationship between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic security institutions
2- Russian perception of the “post-Soviet space” as its sphere of privileged interest and exclusive influence
3- The “post-Soviet space” is the arena for East-West competition
Who was the first prominent author who explored in length the idea on continuity of Russian history?
Nikolay Karamzin
Who authored “Russia and Europe” in 1869?
Nikolay Danilevsky
Who can be named an intellectual predecessor(s) of the modern-day pro-Western Russian liberals?
XIX-century Westernizers
Who compared international law to the rules-based order?
Sergey Lavrov
What theory of international relations does Kari Roberts use in her analysis?
Constructivism
What image of Russia in the post-Soviet space serves Russian interest better, according to Andrei Tsygankov?
State-civilization
What major contribution to IR theory did Robert Jervis make?
Analysis of foreign-policy decision making process from the psychological perspective
What projected desired image of Russia would most Gosudarstvenniki prefer today?
An influential centre in the multi-polar world
St. Vladimir was?
Both Prince of Novgorod and Grand Prince of Kiev
Russia incorporated Crimea and the lands of the Black Sea region, which became known as Novorossia in?
the second part of the 18th century
The total number of victims in the conflict in Donbass has exceeded?
13,000
Taras Shevchenko wrote poetry in?
the Ukrainian language
According to the International Crisis Group, the EU should consider adopting
a more flexible approach to its sanctions policy
What crisis challenged traditional Russian narratives that guided Moscow’s policies in the post-Soviet space in 2020, according to the Kennan Institute report?
1- Politcal crisis in Belarus
2- Mass protests and politcal turbulence in Kyrgyzstan
3- The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Hegemony and dominance over the post-Soviet space was one of the guiding principles of?
Statists
Neo-imperialists
What is Ukraine for Russia in the current official discourse? 4
A culturally close Slavic country
A part of historic Russia
A potential member of a hostile military alliance (NATO)
A country that, alongside Russia, is home to one and the same people
Components of peace in Eastern Ukraine according to the International Crisis Group? 4
1- Reintegration
2- Amnesty
3- Holding elections
4- Restoring ties across the line of contact
How many ethnic Russians found themselves outside the Russian Federation after the Soviet collapse?
25 million
When did Russia’s “return” to the Middle East occur?
After the 2011 Arab uprisings
What is the source of the threat to Russian values, according to the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation? 4
1- The United States
2- Transnational corporations
3- Foreign NGOs
4- Extremist organizations
What are the main international formats for the implementation of the Minsk agreements? 3
1- The Normandy format
2- The Trilateral Contact Group
3- The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission
What is the obstacle to a more nuanced understanding of Russia’s geopolitical intentions and capabilities? 2
1- exaggerating Russia’s military might and economic potential
2- Underestimating Russia’s capabilities and its will to use them
What constructs did Russia promote in order to challenge the assumption that the EU stands for Europe? 3
1- A revamped Concert of Europe
2- The notion of a larger European civilzation
3- A European economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok
What are the obstacles to Russia’s advancement of its interests in Asia? 3
1- Physical distance between major Russian cities and Asia
2- The perception that Russia is not an Asian country
3- Russian non-modernized economy
How can the Cold War be defined?
1- As a state of political hostility short of open warfare between any countries
2- As a state of hostility between the Soviet block and the Western powers
All of the above
The EU’s Five Guiding Principles include?
1- full implementation of the Minsk agreement
2- closer relations between the EU and former soviet republics
3- resilience to Russian threats
4- selective engagement
5- supporting people-to-people contact
“Four Common Spaces” included ?
1- economic
2- freedom, security and justice
3- external security
4- research, education, and culture
Why does Russia occupy a prominent place on the US foreign policy agenda? 4
1- Russia’s size and position on the Eurasian continent
2- Energy resources
3- Nuclear capabilities
4- Geopolitical ambitions
Limitations to Russia’s engagement in the middle east? 3
1- Moscow cannot replace US in the Middle East
2- US trade in the region outweighs that of Russia
3- Moscow does not take sides -> not a viable alternative to Washington
Russia failed to include Asia in its foreign policy enough because?
it is/was too focused on the West
Three problems of Russian policy in Asia:
1- Instrumentalism that distorted its engagement with Asian countries
2- Excessive Sinocentrism
3- Disconnect between grandiose rhetoric and underwhelming achievement
The US Vision of the Indo-pacific?
“Free and Open Indo-Pacific”
“The United States is and always has been
an Indo-Pacific nation.”
Greater Eurasia Partnership?
The Greater Eurasia partnership or
community that Russia is looking for is a
shared space for economic, logistic, and
information cooperation, peace, and security
from Shanghai to Lisbon and from New
Delhi to Murmansk
Greater Eurasia? according to kurtonov?
With the idea of a “Greater Eurasia,” from
the Russian point of view, “Greater Europe”
is becoming a part of Greater Eurasia
because “the only plausible way for Russia
to go back to Europe today goes through
Asia” (Kortunov, 2018).
Greater Eurasia? according to bobo lo
Greater Eurasia is a geopolitical concept obtaining
cultural-geographical and political-economic features.
“Greater Eurasia” is a continent-wide geopolitical vision,
promoting the political and economic cooperation between states and nations from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific.
It is bordered in the East, West, North, and South by the four oceans—the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian.
Three problems influencing Russia-EU relations?
1- Energy security (Europe wants to reduce its dependency, Moscow thought Europe can’t work together but they did)
2- Conflict between Eastern Partnership program and Eurasian Union (zero-sum competition for post-Soviet states and influence)
3- Ukraine
Relations with different countries: Germany France Poland UK Turkey
Germany is most important (!) for Russia – under Merkel relationship deteriorated
France – situation worsened
Poland – no hopes for a better relationship
UK – dysfunctional relationship (comparable to Poland)
Turkey – they have many in common (outsiders)
Countries in Europe aligning with Russia?
because of self-interest or anti-Brussel and anti-US sentiments, not because of active-support for Russia
Three broad conclusions drawn by Putin?
1- Russia cannot trust the West
2- Russia remerged as a global power
3- Russia is in a position to dictate/control the terms of engagement with the West
Russia became even more westerncentric (eventhough “pivot to the East”) why?
1- They know how to deal with the Europeans (too many cultural challenges with Asia)
2- US-policies are clear, Chinese policies seem ambiguous
3- If Russia wants to improve it has to engage with the West
4- The people like the western style of living (look at the Russian middle class, brain drain to the West not to China)
Russia’s 4 main goals:
1- Preserve unique national identity
2- Maintain global power status
3- Be an influential power on the world stage
4- Full sovereignty and independence
Objectives of Russian FP against US
1- Limit US leadership role (Ukraine, Middle East are grounds to push back)
2- Stopping regime changes around the world (Syria)
3- Breaking US monopoly over military forces to achieve its goals (Syria, Ukraine)
The EU Policy Instruments and
Principles through 1991 to 2016
1991: TACIS
1994-1997: PCA
2003: Four Common Spaces
2016: Five Guiding Principles
Trumps’ Russia policy
1- initially Trump seen as positive from Russian point of view: emphasis on sovereignty and US inward looking power, new powers able to dominate regional neighbourhood
2- America First = inward looking policy
Biden’s Russia policy
1- Stop inward looking policy, get involved globally again, return to tradition policy of US leadership -> policy of scaling down
2- Biden changed rhetoric but policy keeps similar to that of Trumps
3- Democracy Summit: values are important
Russian’s believe in “Concert of Europe”
(non-interference, spheres of influence, red lines etc.) -> they are not comfortable with US leadership
What Europe is, differs from what Putin thinks it is and what many Europeans think it is. why?
Different perceptions on:
1- what are European values and what are not.
2- institutions
3- Russia’s identity is one of a sovereign country and it would never give it up to a supranational institution.
Neumann:
Russia as an “apprentice” (student, new comer)
Russia as an “enemy at the gate” (seeking to enlarge its territory)
Similar to image of Ottoman Empire
Three factors why US policy dismises in dealing with Russia?
1- Euphoria after post-Cold War period: perception of decline of Russia
2- Too little attention paid to drivers of Russia’s external behaviour: geography, history, trauma of loss of empire, entitlement based on WW2
3- No internalization of two lessons of Cold War: Cuban missile crisis, Euromissile crisis
Getting Russia right is essential because if not:
1- Wasted resources
2- Distorted national priorities
3- Increased risk of confrontation
Russian strategic culture is a product of:
1- Long history of adversarial relations with other major European powers
2- Geography (strategic depth)
Linear thinking of US after Cold War because? 5
1-Ideological loss 2-Military setback 3-Economy collapsed 4-Dire demographic situation 5-Russia became diplomatically passive and withdrew from foreign commitments
When Putin in power, West still thought recovery not durable because it lacked?
1-Democratic governance
2-Free market
3-Economic diversification
Georgian War outcomes: 3
1- Showed that metrics Russian power was measured were inadequate
2- Significant not in military victory but in symbolic victory over NATO
3- Signalled that Russia is committed to protect its exclusive sphere of influence
Advantage of Russia when it comes to Eastern Europe?
1-Geographic proximity
2-Willingness to use forces and pay higher price in resources and lives
Economy: (should not be underestimated)
1-It weathered sanctions
2-Repeated drastic drops in the price of oil
3-Intense competition for share in European gas market
4-Fallout from coronavirus
5-Burden of military competition with NATO and conflict with Ukraine
Not only avoided downturns but generated over 500 billion USD in total reserves + paid for military upgrades
what was clear about Russian Military: (reform since Georgian War in 2008) 4
1- Enough to dominate post-Soviet space
2- Nuclear weapons arsenal more than enough to deter NATO
3- Demonstrated capability of project power beyond Russia’s immediate periphery
4- Gray zone, hybrid operations emerged as important instrument
Russian history:
Difficult relations with every neighbouring country
No precedent for anything other than pursuit of empire
No meaningful barrier to expansionist impulses and no reliable defense
Russia’s foreign policy activism Will remain a challenge due to:
1- Inexpensive operations
2- Successful in managing economic costs
3- Widespread support among Russians
how does Russia see Former Soviet Republics:
1-Sphere of privileged Russian interests
2-Russia didn’t achieve its objectives
3-Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine most important
reasons behind decline in clout in South Caucasus and Central Asia
1- China as strong competitor
2- Attractiveness as geopolitical partner diminished (Russia does not deliver on its promises)
3- CSTO, CIS, EAEU are not effective
4- EAEU suffers from internal division and no new members
5- Hedging against Russia with outside players
how does Russia see Europe:
1- Russian policy shows no interest of reconciliation, Europe inclined to follow hardline policy
2- EU reduced Russian energy leverage
3- Russia and Balkan, it is not the mayor player
views on Asia Pacific:
1- Russia will remain a European and not an Asian power
2- Relationship with China is top priority
3- Other countries negligible
views on middle east:
With Syria it sent message to other countries that Russia is a reliable partner
russia in Africa:
Rather small influence in Africa
Russia in Latin America:
Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua
conclusions regarding Russia’s partners:
1- Russia exploits opportunities created by the West
2- No real allies
3- Russia has little to offer to win friends
4- It’s about geopolitics and not really helping countries (transactional, not transformational)
5- Russia’s strongest ties (in Africa and Latin America) are with the weakest countries
6- Overreach (Balkan and Montenegro)
who spoke of Russian Exceptionalism
Fedor Dostoevsky:
who spoke of A special civilizational and spiritual mission in the region
Russian Empire
when did Russian conservatism decline?
2016
Putin is a product of his environment; he’s a composite of six identities:?
The statist
The history man — illustrates and underscores his conservative perspective
The survivalist
The outsider
The free marketer — his method’s for achieving his goals and priorities
The case officer
Perspectives on Nation-Building after the Collapse of the Soviet Union
Pro-Western liberals:
New state-building
economic integration
Perspectives on Nation-Building after the Collapse of the Soviet Union
statists:
New state-building
Integration
Hegemony and dominance in post soviet space
Perspectives on Nation-Building after the Collapse of the Soviet Union
neo-imperialists
Restoration of the Soviet Union
Hegemony and dominance
Perspectives on Nation-Building after the Collapse of the Soviet Union
ethnic nationalists
New state-building
Redrawing the border along ethnic lines; not legitimate
