Test 2. Flashcards
Topic 4 and 5
3 levels of analysis
International, State, Individual
unit of analysis at individual level
Personality, Choices, perceptions
unit of analysis at state level
economy, national interest, government, interest groups
unit of analysis at international level
interdependence, polarity, intergovernmental organizations
What are system variables?
Distribution of power, Fungibility of power, National interests, Information
Debate between bipolar and multipolar stability
if a world dominated by two major powers (bipolarity) is more stable than one with multiple competing power centers (multipolarity). Some believe a world with two big powers (bipolarity) is more stable because it reduces confusion and major conflicts. Others think having multiple powerful countries (multipolarity) creates better balance and prevents any one country from becoming too dominant.
Each Side’s Basic Logic: polarity, uncertainty,stability
Bipolarity: Fewer major powers mean less uncertainty, making the system more predictable and stable, which reduces the risk of war.
Multipolarity: More major powers create flexibility and balance, but also more uncertainty, which can lead to instability and potential conflicts.
How does BDM compare these two arguments
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita believes uncertainty affects stability. In a bipolar world, power is clear, so countries make fewer mistakes, reducing the chance of war. In a multipolar world, power keeps shifting, creating confusion and a higher risk of war since countries can misjudge each other’s strength and intentions.
Balance of power theory
A system where no single state becomes too powerful, maintaining stability through alliances and counterbalancing.
means to keep balance of war?
build a coalition
Relationship between power distribution and power polarity (is the balance of power easier to achieve in a bipolar or multipolar world?
multipolar world
What is hard and soft balancing?
Hard Balancing: Military alliances, arms buildups.
Soft Balancing: Sanctions, diplomacy, international pressure.
Power Transition Theory
x Nations are in “constant competition over scarce resources”
There are satisfied and dissatisfied countries
Power Transition Theory
Assumptions:
The international system is hierarchical, with a dominant power at the top.
Rising powers challenge the dominant power as they grow stronger.
War is most likely when a challenger reaches near-equal strength to the dominant power.
Stability is maintained when the dominant power remains stronger than all others.
Power Transition Theory
Arguments:
Global order is shaped by the most powerful state, which sets the rules.
As weaker states grow in power, they may become dissatisfied with the system.
A power transition (when a rising power equals or surpasses the dominant power) creates instability and increases the risk of war.
If the challenger is satisfied with the system, the transition can be peaceful.
If dissatisfied, war is likely as the challenger seeks to reshape the global order.
Difference between state and nation
State: has borders, political entities, government, and sovereignty
Nation: a group of people with shared values, culture, language, and may not have a state.
Example of a state
The US, China, Japan
Example of a nation
Cherokee Nation, Koreans, Kurds, Aarabs
Types of nations
- Multi-State Nation – A nation spread across multiple states.
- Stateless Nation – A nation without its own sovereign state.
Definition of Power
Power is the ability to influence others or control outcomes in international relations.
Three Sources of Power:
- Natural sources
- Intangible sources
- Tangible sources
Natural sources
geography
natural resources
population
Intangible sources
national image
public support
leadership
Tangible sources
industrial development
Level of infrastructure
characteristics of military
Soft power?
the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments
Culture
Political value Foreign policy
How to measure power? (6 indicators)
population
urban population
iron and steel
energy consumption
military expenditure
military personnel
Correlates of War Project’s CINC
A formula to measure state power based on military, economic, and demographic factors.
Challenges faced by nation-states
Above (External Threats): Globalization, international organizations limiting sovereignty, great power competition.
Below (Internal Threats): Ethnic conflicts, separatist movements, weak governance.
Arguments for the significance of individuals in IR
Yes, we cannot assume that all state actors are the same or will respond identically in similar situations.
Arguments against the significance of individuals in IR
No, Leaders often have limited choices due to both international and domestic factors. In many countries, power is shared rather than controlled by a single leader
External conditions in which individuals have greater effect
Political Institutions are Unstable, Young, In crisis, Collapsed
Institutional Constraints, Limited
Issues/Situations, Peripheral, Usual, Ambiguous
External conditions in which individuals have lesser effect
Political Institutions are Stable, Mature, Well-established
Institutional Constraints are Strong and binding
Issues/Situations: Central or critical, Clear and defined, Well-understood
Rational Choice Model
people make decisions by logically weighing options to maximize benefits and minimize costs.
What is rationality (two conditions)
Connectedness (comparability)
Consistency (transitivity)
Utility and preferences
Utility is the satisfaction from a choice, and preferences are what guide those choices based on likes or dislikes.
Expected utility and probability (no calculation
Expected utility is the anticipated satisfaction from a decision, based on possible outcomes.
Probability is the chance of each outcome occurring.
Psychological/cognitive approach
how emotions, biases, and mental processes influence decision-making, rather than just logical reasoning.
Belief system
People synthesize and interpret new information based on their “integrated sets of images”
Five information-processing mechanisms
Cognitive consistency, Evoked set, Mirror image, Groupthink, and Satisficing
Cognitive consistency
Tendency to accept information compatible with what has been previously accepted
Evoked set
Tendency to use historical precedent
Mirror image
Tendency to view one’s own actions good, moral, and just, and enemy’s actions evil, immoral, and unjust. (denying the otherness of the others)
Groupthink
Tendency for small group to form a consensus
Strategic approach
decision-making based on anticipating and responding to the actions of others to achieve the best outcome.
Leaders’ multiple goals
- Policy concern
- Personal security
- National security
Personal security
political survival of their leadership
Policy concern
their true policy preferences
National security
in the international arena
Tradeoff between goals
Leaders’ true belief may not reflect in their policy
Poli-heuristic theory
Two-stage foreign policy making process
Poli-heuristic theory: Principles used in the first stage (4 principles)
Non-exhaustive search for goods
Satisficing
Non-compensatory
Focus on domestic politics
Poli-heuristic theory: Two-step design
rational choice is applied to the remaining small number of options
Satisficing
Good enough” rather than “optimal”
methods to exercise power
Diplomacy
Economic statecraft Force
Diplomacy
Influencing the behavior of others by negotiating.
types of diplomacy
Public diplomacy
Track-two diplomacy
Public diplomacy
Appealing to the foreign public for support of a position
Track-two diplomacy
non-governmental, informal and unofficial contacts and activities between
Putnam’s two-level game:
Domestic level – Leaders must gain support from domestic actors
International level – Leaders negotiate with other states or actors.
Economic statecraft
Positive sanctions
Negative sanctions
Smart sanctions
Positive sanctions
Trading privileges such as MFN
Allowing sensitive trade Encouraging investment Opening domestic market
Negative sanctions
Freezing assets
Arms embargo Trade limits
Smart sanctions
targeted sanctions focusing on specific individuals and groups to avoid the high humanitarian costs of general sanctions
Using force and threat to use force
Actual use of force (conflict or war)
Compellence
get another state to do (undo) an act by threatening to use force
Deterrence
prevent another state from doing something
Nuclear deterrence during the Cold War
First- and second-strike capacity
First-strike capacity is the ability to launch a nuclear attack that could cripple the enemy before they retaliate.
Second-strike capacity is the ability to respond with a devastating nuclear attack after being hit first, ensuring mutual destruction.
MAD
Mutually Assured Destruction
if two nuclear powers attack each other, both would be destroyed, deterring them from using nuclear weapons.
Rational Choice Model- steps
Clearly identifies the problem
Elucidates goals (preferences) Determines policy alternatives Analyzes costs and benefits of alternatives (expected utility of each option) Selects the alternative with the highest utility
Level of analysis (state as unitary, rational actor)
Level of analysis looks at the state as a single, rational actor making decisions to serve its interests.
Notional state (a state)
Generic state (democratic state)
Identified state (the US)
Personalized state (the Trump administration)
How to design a rational choice model to explain a particular case of foreign policy making?
To design a rational choice model for foreign policy, identify the options available, evaluate the costs and benefits of each, consider the probabilities of outcomes, and choose the option that maximizes national interest or utility.
State-level analysis
how a country’s internal factors, like politics, economy, and leadership, influence its foreign policy decisions.
State-level analysis: the unit of analysis
the state itself, examining how its internal factors (e.g., government structure, economy, public opinion) shape its foreign policy.
the role of national interest-
guide a state’s foreign policy decisions, prioritizing its security, economic well-being, and cultural values to achieve its goals on the international stage.
why international relations are unintended consequences for international affairs?
because decisions made by states can lead to unpredictable outcomes due to factors like miscommunication, differing interests, or unforeseen reactions from other actors.
Organizational model
Importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs) and processes within different organizations
Organizational model: Basic procedure
standard operating procedures, routines, and past experiences, rather than careful analysis of all options.
Organizational model: SOPs
“off-the-shelf” reactions, developed by earlier careful analysis of classes of events
How to use an organization model to explain a particular case of foreign policy making?
examining how decisions are influenced by routines and past practices within the government, rather than by analyzing all options.
Bureaucratic model
foreign policy decisions as a result of negotiations and compromises among various government agencies and officials, each with their own interests and priorities.
Bureaucratic model: Basic procedure
decisions are made through negotiation and compromise among different government agencies, each with its own goals and interests.
How to use a bureaucratic model to explain a particular case of foreign policy making?
examine how different government agencies with competing interests influence the final foreign policy decision through negotiation and compromise.
Pluralist model
Basic procedure
decision-making through competition and negotiation among various interest groups, each trying to influence policy to benefit their goals.
How to use a pluralist model to explain a particular case of foreign policy making?
examining how different interest groups compete and negotiate to shape foreign policy decisions based on their specific goals and influence.
