Test 1 Flashcards
Chapter 1-3
What is politics?
What do politicians strive for?
the concern with the authoritative allocation of value(s) in a society
Politicians strive to bring the max degree of change in the opposing group with a minimum
What is important in politics?
Politics involves individuals and groups with varying amounts of power, seeking control and making decisions for a larger group that benefit some more than others
What are beliefs?
Beliefs are the things we consider to be true about politics
- we tend to hang out with people with similar beliefs
- beliefs are difficult to change
- not often based on facts, passing on beliefs as facts can be very dangerous- they go beyond facts
Why must we understand what others believe
so we can interact, cooperate and compete
Political Actors
-want power and entice us to agree with them with any means possible
-it is not their job to “tell the truth” so they will tell incomplete or out of context or incorrect information
Political scientists
They scientifically seek out the best information to transparently describe & explain/behaviors
Fund research and publish findings
IT IS their job to produce trustworthy findings
Why we don’t often have much use for the facts
We like our beliefs more, even in the face of opposing facts
- plagued by many cognitive biases and heuristics
Confirmation bias
Happens when we interpret new information as supporting the beliefs or
theories we already held, even when it doesn’t
Implicit Bias
Occurs when we subconsciously and automatically ascribe certain
negative characteristics or behaviors to someone because of the group to
which we mentally assign them
Availability Heuristic
A mental shortcut our mind often takes that assumes that the most recent
and frequently revisited information is the best to use for a given decision
Representative Heuristic
Another mental shortcut that assumes that because someone or
something is accurately described by characteristic “Z”, that they also
must also possess characteristics “W,” “U,” and “V” because we always
expect those 4 characteristics to occur together
Biases are.. and always…
Biases are legion, but are always bad—they
skew and warp our perception as things
really are
Heuristics are often what…
good- we use them everyday to reduce time and to classify and decide
bad- when we make an irrational decision because the mental shortcut misled us
Winners v. Losers
-No matter the decision, there will be some of each
-They may be groups or individuals
Today v. Tomorrow
-Which is sacrificed for the other?
-Political will is often absent when it comes to matters seen as over the horizon
What is the Today trap?
It’s human nature to prioritize immediate
benefits over future investment
When looking at information make sure that..
-Terms are clearly defined
-Measurements should be complete and accurate as possible
-Measurements may or may not vary over time
Empirical Data is..
The basis
Science always begins with observations
Transparent process
Science is a community effort; trust is coin of the realm
Rules-based investigation
Rules are more important than results
Independently confirmable
Must be repeatable by others to be trusted
Falsifiable
Never the “last word”—always more to discover
Reliability (R)
Consistency of results from repeatable
measures
Validity (V)
Acceptability of measure as pertinent to
the question being asked
Natural Science data
Can often lead to high R and high V
Social Science
Data often permits only lower R, V
Normative measure
means arising from norms (social
standards); these can be (and often are) challenged (to learn best v. worst)
Subjective
measures are not empirical, and vice
versa (to learn best v. worst)
What does the count measure involve?
Involves counting things: population, births, inches, pounds, etc.
What does a rate measure involve?
is just one count measure divided by a second count measure. Think about the speed of a car—it is a rate measure found by taking the number of miles covered and
dividing it by the time it took to drive that distance. (also more powerful than count measures)
What does a composite measure involve?
measure is a measure that has been built or composed from other measures.
Researchers use a composite measure when
they can’t directly observe what they want to measure. Instead, they mathematically combine count or rate measures together to form the composite measure.
Correlations
Correlation is measure of empirical
relationship
* Relationship or non-relationship between
observable characteristics of two different
objects of investigation
* Correlation does not mean causation (more about that later)
(produces the r coefficient)
Correlation on a graph
Higher “r” means tighter grouping along the trend; fewer outliers
* Higher “r” is read as a stronger relationship
Plus & minus signs show the direction of the
relationship
Importance of Scales in graphs and plots
Starting points…
Often NOT zero
Non-zero starting points are sometimes used to avoid lots of blank space on a line graph, but can make small differences appear excessively large
Breaks in scales
Used when “outliers” create two groupings of data points with large amounts of empty space in between
Can make outliers appear to be less extreme; visual differences are altered with respect to only the outliers
Increment Sizing
These should be evenly spaced—but sometimes are not, skewing data
interpretations
Why must you beware of average/ mean values?
helpful- used a lot including a lot of rate measures we’ve mentioned so far
not so helpful- they leave out a lot of important information
Current-year $$
include (hide) inflation effects
Inflation is the general rise in the price of goods and services
Inflation changes the “value” of $1.00 over time—that dollar bill bought 2 sodas (@ 50 cents) many years ago, but only 1 soda today
Fixed-year $$ (or constant- year or real $$)
reveal (subtract out) inflation effects and should always specify baseline year used
Best for comparison of $$ across years
Very different picture than current-year
Correlation is
a measure of empirical relationship
Causation
is a possible explanation of how or why a pattern exists in an empirical relationship
* Causation cannot be hypothesized for “just a set of dots” on a plot
* Causal hypotheses are based on the data, the meaning of the measures (variables), and how/why they are causally connected
Correlation v. Causation (which is theoretical, which is factual)
Correlation- factual, determined by calculations using observable measures of the data
Causations- theoretical: a hypothesis or inference as to how & why the empirical relationship exists
Correlation w/out Causation in
Science
- Correlation is often only coincidence
- When an empirical relationship is correlated, but is not causal, it is spurious
- Very high “r” values are often a tip-off to spuriousness
- A computer can calculate correlation, but a
human must infer cause or determine
spuriousness
Correlation and Causation in
Politics
- “Correlation” is not in vocabulary of
politicians - Correlations are usually presented as
causation - Often, they are actually spurious!
- Claims of “causation” will usually assume
your acceptance
Alternate adjectives for Spurious
- false
- non-causal
- misleading
- invalid
- illegitimate
- illusory
- circumstantial
- accidental
Concept of political culture:
a shared framework of values, beliefs, and habits of behavior in regard to government and politics
Unmistakable Conservatism:
Shared experiences with other Southern states of slavery, defeat in a civil war, postwar occupation, and continued denial of full citizenship rights to African Americans
Extreme Individualism:
Derived from the reality and myth of living on the frontier
Theory’s Vital Role in Science
Theories aren’t proofs
They are ideas that express a specific causal mechanism
The best ones are elegant and offer a lot of explanatory power while often ignoring unexplained aspects
One phenomenon can be “explained” by different theories
Who is Daniel Elazar?
Political scientist who lived 1934-1999
In 1966 he published his causal theory for why different regions in the U.S. held largely uniform political ideologies
Elazar’s Moralistic Classification:
“Government is a positive force for
good!”
Government advances the public interest and is a positive force in the lives of citizens; intervenes whenever necessary
Elazar’s Traditionalistic Classification:
“Elite lineage is all that matters”
Government’s purpose is utilitarian: serve the elite who created it to serve them
◦ Maintain the existing social order and economic hierarchy
◦ Ambivalent toward the marketplace and the common good
Totalitarianism:
Governement has unlimited power
- Hitler with Nazis
- Stalin with Soviet Communist Party
Anarchy:
No power ( and no government)
Extreme Socialism in Economy
Government owns the basic goods and services provided to members of the society
Extreme Capitalism in Economy
Individuals own the basic goods and services provided to members of the society, and do with them as they please
Socialism in Economy
Government owns the basic goods and
services provided to members of the society
Capitalism in Economy
Individuals own the basic goods and services provided to members of the society, and do with them as they please
(In economy) Argument for moving toward Socialism
Labor and profit within a society’s market system must both retain intrinsic value—human beings must not be a “throw away”
commodity in pursuit of a stronger bottom line.
(In economy) Argument against moving toward Socialism
When everything is divided equally (and everyone is treated equally), there is no incentive for the individual to produce. (Big
free-rider problem! Trying to float everyone’s boat is a waste of effort and
money.)
(In economy) Argument for moving toward Capitalism
Maximizes economic growth and promotes freedom of individual wealth. (Directly connecting effort to benefit is the key)
(In economy) Argument against moving toward Capitalism
Leaves the less intellectually and socially privileged individuals without means to improve their quality of life.
Social Freedom
Places a high value on individual liberties even at the expense of having an orderly society
Social Order
Prioritizes public stability and decency above
individual freedom
What does being conservative mean?
◦ Highly valuing social order and economic efficiency
◦ Expecting government power must regulate social choices …and must NOT regulate economic choices
◦ Seeing economic inequality as a natural consequence of differences in human ability and energy
What does being liberal mean?
◦ Highly valuing social freedom and economic equality
◦ Expecting that government should NOT restrict social choices …but should intervene to promote individual welfare and to regulate the economy
◦ Valuing private property and market, but only to a point
Heavily weights the overall good of society instead of individuals’ good
What does Libertarian mean?
◦ Highly valuing social freedom and economic efficiency
◦ Emphasizing autonomy of individual and minimalist role of government
Individual should be free from restraint in both economic and non- economic spheres
◦ NOT wanting ANARCHY – but believing in minimal intervention of government, not a society without government
What does being a populist mean?
◦ Highly valuing government intervention in economy to benefit the average citizen or “little guy”
But intervention must conform to traditional moral & social values
◦ Not being anti-capitalist, but also not trusting of elites
◦ Accepting of many assumptions of liberalism
Especially emphasizing individualism, equality of opportunity
