Terms Flashcards
Actionable Intelligence
Information that can be acted upon quickly to counter an adversary’s actions, as opposed to information that assists in understanding an adversary’s plans and intentions.
Agent (Communications)
An agent is a person unofficially employed by an intelligence service–often as a
source of information. Communicating with an agent can follow many different procedures to transfer that
information to the intelligence officer(s) with whom that agent has regular, professional contact.
Agent
An individual covertly employed by an intelligence organization to assist in its activities. Often further identified by his or her role in the intelligence operation.
Analysis
The process by which information is transformed into intelligence; a systematic ex-amination of
information to identify significant facts, make judgments, and draw conclusions.
Assessments
Development of forecasts of behavior or recommended courses of action to the leadership of
an organization, based on a wide range of available information sources both overt and covert.
Assessments are developed in response to requirements declared by the leadership to inform decision
making.
Clandestine Collection
Not to be confused with covert collection. The intent of clandestine intelligence collection is to keep the activity hidden from public view. While covert activity is also hidden, it is not necessarily denied if discovered–although the sponsor of the covert action is. No one claims responsibility for it. Clandestine means that the existence of an activity is wholly denied. It is meant to remain
undetected.
Classification
The determination, in the interest of national security, that official information requires a
specific degree of protection against unauthorized disclosure, coupled with a designation signifying that
such a determination has been made; the designation is typically called a “security classification,” which
includes CONFIDENTIAL, SECRET, and TOP SECRET classification levels.
Collection Synergy
How different forms of technical, human, and open intelligence collection interact, and work together, to keep the intelligence/performance cycle moving.
Competitive Analysis
An idea that is based on the belief that by having analysis in several agencies with different backgrounds and perspectives work on the same issue, parochial views more likely will be
countered—if not weeded out—and proximate reality is more likely to be achieved.
Compromise
Not blackmail, in that American intelligence services don’t set people up. However, if we
knew they had made risky or illegal decisions that could put them in danger with the governments in their
countries (unprompted), we might use that information in understanding their motivation or making an approach based on helping get them out of their trouble.
Confidence Levels
are based on the quality of source, describe the amount of confidence an analyst has in his/her judgments. High, moderate, and low.
High Confidence
The information is of high quality, or the nature of the issue makes solid (not
necessarily perfect) judgment possible.
Moderate Confidence
The information is susceptible to
multiple interpretations, or there may be alternative views – credible or plausible, but not totally
corroborated.
Low Confidence
The information is scant, questionable, or fragmented, leading to
difficulties in making “solid analytic inferences,” or the information derived from sources that may be
problematic.
Counterintelligence
1) The protection of sensitive information from all adversaries. In intelligence organizations, this is done defensively through security practices and internal monitoring of activities and offensively by recruiting penetration agents of the adversary to identify and thwart its efforts to obtain this information.
2) Information gathered and activities conducted to identify, deceive, exploit, disrupt, or protect against espionage, other intelligence activities, sabotage, or assassinations conducted for or on behalf of foreign powers, organizations, or persons or their agents, or international terrorist organizations or activities.
Countersurveillance
measures undertaken to prevent surveillance, including covert surveillance
EO 12333 Definition of Covert Action
Covert action means an activity or activities of the United States
Government to influence political, economic, or military conditions abroad, where it is intended that the role of the United States Government will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly
Exclusions from EO 12333 Definition of Covert Action
a) Activities the primary purpose of which is to acquire intelligence, traditional
counterintelligence activities, traditional activities to improve or maintain the
operational security of United States Government programs, or administrative
activities;
b) Traditional diplomatic or military activities or routine support to such activities;
c) Traditional law enforcement activities conducted by United States Government law enforcement agencies or routine support to such activities; or
d) Activities to provide routine support to the overt activities (other than activities
described in paragraph (a), (b), or (c)) of other United States Government agencies
abroad.
General Definition of Covert Action
An intelligence activity that seeks to influence the decision making of an adversary through the use of propaganda, political action, or paramilitary activities. Covert action is not acknowledged by the country or service that carries it out. In the American context, covert action is authorized by the White House. Covert action generally falls under four categories (although this is flexible):
a. Propaganda
b. Political action
c. Information warfare (IW) – defined in other Key Terms documents
d. Paramilitary – defined in other Key Terms documents
Cryptography
The development and creation of algorithms (in the modern, computerized context) or codes used to protect information. The end product of cryptography is encryption. (Not to be confused with Cryptanalysis, which is the science of analyzing and breaking encryption schemes.)
Dead Drop
Location where an item is placed in order to separate the physical contact between the agent
and the intelligence officer. For example, the agent places a report in a tin can and leaves it in underbrush
at an agreed-upon site, and a few hours later the intelligence officer retrieves the can.
Dead Drop
Location where an item is placed in order to separate the physical contact between the agent
and the intelligence officer. For example, the agent places a report in a tin can and leaves it in underbrush
at an agreed-upon site, and a few hours later the intelligence officer retrieves the can.
Deception Operation
Allowing an adversary to obtain information, which manipulates its actions to one’s benefit.
Deception
The act of making someone believe something that is not true. Deception is a key tool in espionage and its operations. Sun Tzu, the famed Chinese military strategist, was among the earliest writers
to emphasize its importance to success (for troops and spies) in engagements with enemies.
“Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable;
When using our forces, we must seem inactive;
When we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away;
When far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
Decision Advantage
Provision of intelligence to policy-makers that will give them an advantage over their adversaries.
Denied Area
Areas in which the host government or controlling actor aims to deny intelligence efforts to opposing governments or actors
Encryption
Coding of information or data to make it difficult, or impossible, to read and understand for
those who do not know the coding. EX: Instead of writing the word “enemy”, the word “blue”, or the
number “23” might be substituted.
Estimates
Analytical products that serve two major purposes: Forecasting an issue or a trend over a determined time period; and presentation of the considered judgments of the Intelligence Community on those events or issues.
Executive Orders
Policies specifically prescribed by the White House. Related to intelligence, the issuance of Executive Order 12,333 is the explicit authorizing order for intelligence activities carried out by the United States. Executive orders are deemed to have the force of law unless a court rules their contents (in whole or in part) to be unconstitutional.
Executive Order 12333
Executive Order 12,333 (commonly referred to as ‘twelve triple-three’) was signed by President Reagan on December 4, 1981. It is seen as the basis of explicit authority for all Intelligence Community activities. Although some of its provisions have been changed or updated, 12333 is still regarded as the foundational document detailing the responsibilities of each intelligence organization and what each member of the Intelligence Community is authorized to do.
Foreign Intelligence
Information relating to the capabilities, intentions, or activities or foreign
governments or elements thereof, foreign organizations, or foreign persons. (Warner 15; Quoting the
National Security Act of 1947)
Fusion Center
A collaborative effort of two or more agencies that provide resources, expertise, and
information to a center with the goal of maximizing the ability to detect, prevent, investigate, and respond
to criminal and terrorist activity. State and major urban area fusion centers are recognized as a valuable information-sharing resource. They are the focus, but not exclusive points, within the state and local environments for the receipt and sharing of terrorism information, homeland security information, and law
enforcement information related to terrorism.
Global Coverage
This means that intelligence agencies and officers acknowledge their requirements to cover any and all issues or areas.
Groupthink
The practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or
individual responsibility and which a common set of assumptions go unstated or even unrecognized.
Indications
In intelligence usage, information in various degrees of evaluation which bear on the intention of a potential enemy to adopt or reject a course of action.
Influence Operation
An operation designed to effectively influence the attitudes and behavior of
particular foreign audiences while minimizing or avoiding combat. This can include elements of public
relations, persuasion (psychological operations, or PSYOPs), or diplomacy.
Information Warfare (IW)
A concept involving the use and management of information and communication technology in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent. While there is no universal definition for IW, the generally accepted one looks like this: “The process of protecting one’s own sources of information and, at the same time, seeking to deny, degrade, corrupt, or destroy the enemy’s sources of information.”
Intelligence
The process by which specific types of information important to national security are requested, collected, analyzed, and provided to policy makers; the products of that process;
the safeguarding of these processes and this information by counterintelligence activities; and the carrying
out of operations as requested by lawful authorities. (Lowenthal 10)
Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA)
A 2004 law that reformed parts of the intelligence community. The law created the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), and the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board.
Intelligence Requirements
- Any subject, general or specific, upon which there is a need for the collection of information, or the production of intelligence.
- A requirement for intelligence to fill a gap in the command’s knowledge or understanding of the operational environment or threat forces. Also called IR. (JP
International Human Rights Law (IHRL)
The body of international law designed to promote human rights at social, regional, and domestic levels. States that ratify human rights
treaties commit themselves to respecting those rights and ensuring that their domestic law is compatible with international legislation.
International Humanitarian Law (IHL) / Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC)
International humanitarian law is a set of rules which seek, for humanitarian reasons, to limit the effects of armed conflict. It protects persons
who are not or are no longer participating in the hostilities and restricts the means and methods of
warfare.
Strategic
In the context of military operations, strategy develops an idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national, and/or multinational objectives.
Operational
Links the tactical employment of forces to national and military strategic objectives
Tactical
Employment and ordered arrangement of forces in relation to each other. Joint doctrine focuses this term on planning and executing battles, engagements, and activities at the tactical level to achieve military objects assigned to tactical units or task forces
MICE
Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego. It is a useful way to divide why people spy, but it is not the way to approach a recruitment. CIA doesn’t use this as an operating concept.
Mirror Imaging
assumption that other leaders, states, and groups share motivations or goals similar to those most familiar to the analyst. The statement “It would be irrational to do that, so they won’t,” might be
based on assumptions about how WE would act not our adversary.
Noise versus Signals
Signals, in this context, are clear indications of wanted information that often warn us of threats. Although signals are helpful, picking them from a crowded stream of irrelevant and contradictory information constitutes the noise in which signals are often embedded.
Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT)
Information gathered from publicly available (“open”) sources, such as
radio, television, newspapers, the Internet, etc. The collection of such information is used to augment intelligence analysis and reporting.
Operations Officer (OO)
Individuals focus on clandestinely spotting, assessing, developing,
recruiting, and handling non-US-citizens having access to foreign intelligence vital to US foreign policy and
national security decision-makers. OOs build relationships based on rapport and trust using sound judgment, integrity, and the ability to assess character and motivation.”
Operators
These are the people who do the on-the-ground, in-person work of intelligence and military operations
Because policy-makers also want to be actors, to achieve goals, and not just to prevent negative occurrences, intelligence that switches the policy-maker from reactor to actor is __________. Sophisticated and difficult to produce, _______________ requires knowledge of
policy goals and usually means positing how adversaries will react to policy initiatives. _____________
requires an analyst to judge what possible courses of action might be available to achieve a policy-maker’s
stated policy goals.
Opportunity Analysis
Paramilitary Activity
Activities of a military nature clandestinely supported, and often guided to some
degree, by an entity to influence the decision-making of an adversary. ____________ is different from Traditional Military Activity, or TMA, which is conducted by U.S. military personnel under the
direction and control of a U.S. military commander, and in which the U.S. role in an operation is
acknowledged publicly.
Pitch
An offer made by an intelligence agency to recruit a spy. These can be taken after long
“developmental” periods or they can be “Cold Pitches.”
Political Action Programs
Generally seek to achieve influence (by changing government behavior or policy) through covert activities that involve the manipulation–legitimate or
otherwise–of a foreign country’s political and/or economic systems.
Concerns over ___________ arise when intelligence officers alter
their evidence (which is supposed to be offered objectively) to support the favored options or outcomes preferred by policy-makers or analysts.
Politicized Intelligence
Propaganda
Intelligence agencies covertly disseminate specific information to advance foreign policy
goals. United States law prohibits, however, the use of intelligence agencies to influence domestic media
and opinion.
Recruitment
A “pitch” and the formation of a relationship. The understanding that there is a formal agreement between an agent and a case officer for the provision of services.
The __________ is composed of a group of people who are unfamiliar with an analytical product
whose role is to objectively view it and aim to find its flaws. This is a way to expose vulnerabilities in
analytic products and improve the accuracy of those products by viewing the issue or event in question through the perspective of the units of analysis (usually, our adversaries) and provide decision-making
expertise while identifying alternative analyses.
Red Team
A __________ is granted to U.S. government personnel (and contractors) whose
work is supported by the knowledge of state secrets, otherwise referred to as ‘classified information’.
Eligibility for access to classified information is granted only to those for whom an appropriate personnel security background investigation has been completed. The nomenclature and background check
procedures for security clearances can vary somewhat within the Intelligence Community.
Security Clearance
Signals Intelligence (SIGINT)
Consists of COMINT (communications intelligence) and ELINT (electronic
intelligence, or collection through electronic sensors). This is intelligence collection through the
interception of signals as used in communication between people–by phone, radio, text, etc.-or non-
nuclear/radioactive electromagnetic radiations. In the U.S. context, this complex, important contributor of
actionable intelligence developed out of the need to view enemy communications conducted by telegraph,
and later, “wireless telegraphy” (now called radio).
Sources and Methods
Identifying information on who is reporting intelligence and how it is being collected. This is often some of the most sensitive information involved in intelligence operations. Its compromise often means a loss of the asset or information flow.
The term used to define written laws, usually enacted by a legislative body. ___________ vary from regulatory or administrative laws that are passed by executive agencies, and
common law, or the law created by prior court decisions. An E.O is not a statutory law.
Statutory Law
Strategic Warning
Message sent by the IC to decision makers, or from decision makers to the military, warning that war or hostile military action is a possibility or is imminent
Surveillance
Continuous observation of a place, person, group, or activity in order to gather information.
(Operational) Tradecraft
Techniques and methods used by members of the Intelligence Community for the conduct of their respective activities.
Warner’s Definition of Intelligence
Secret, state activity to understand or influence foreign entities
Warning Intelligence
Those intelligence activities intended to detect and report time sensitive intelligence information on foreign developments that forewarn of hostile actions or intention against United States entities, partners, or interests.
Warning of War
Short-term warning of expected hostilities, outline of possible attacks, and includes an operational order
Wheat Versus Chaff
A related concept to ‘signal versus noise.’ Refers to the process of wading through available information to find the intelligence that is necessary to have
Four Purposes of Intelligence
- Maintain the secrecy of information, needs (requirements), and methods (counterintelligence)
- Avoid strategic surprise
- Provide long-term expertise
- Support executive, commanders, and the policy making process
Four Key Characteristics of Intelligence (Sun Tzu discussion)
- Separate art beyond warfare or statecraft
- Secrecy is key otherwise you loose the advantage
- Goal is decision advantage (foreknowledge, or insight)
- Outcomes of war can depend on it so it is worth investment
Intelligence is the information relevant to the policymaker, information itself is not intelligence
TRUE
Strategic vs. Tactical Surprise
Strategic: an overarching goal or plan
Tactical: granular methods to achieve the higher goal
What is the first duty of intelligence officers?
Detect and prevent surprise. IC learns and is shaped by surprises and failures. It largely exists due to failure of Pearl Harbor and was reshaped by 9-11.
Four Ways Surprise Can be Accomplished
- Whether
- Where
- When
- How
Daniel Kahneman on Decision Making
System 1: shorthand (heuristics) operating all the time; these create biases
System 2: slow thinking is deliberate, conscious, and effortful
Effective Performance of Intelligence Requires
1) Actively Asking and Anticipating
2) Persuading and Warning vs. “Dissemination”
3) Hearing? Believing? Acting?
Key Distinction Between Intelligence Cycles
Inclusion of the Policymaker
Traditional Intelligence Cycle
Requirements ⤑ Collection/Exploitation ⤑ Analysis ⤑ Dissemination & “Feedback” ⤑ (repeats)
Augmented Intelligence Performance Cycle
Ask/Anticipate ⤑ Collect/Exploit ⤑ Know/Analyze/Assess ⤑ Tell, Warn, Persuade ⤑ Hear? Act? Believe? ⤑ (repeat)
External Causes of Intel Failure
Not enough info
Too much info (“signal to noise” problem”
Strategic deception by enemy
Internal Causes of Intel Failure
human and organizational pathologies related to critical thinking: incorrect assumptions, biases, politicization, etc.
Unmotivated Bias
individual is not aware of the bias (ex. recency bias or group think)
Motivated Bias
intelligence actor is affected by something they want or want to avoid; deliberate distortion of intelligence or politicization (ie. “human agency”)
Basic Information
reference material that answers “what” question;
Factual information or baseline knowledge on a subject to provide context, is periodically updated.
Ex. How large is the port?
Current Reports
focus on recent developments; not just answering the “what” but also the “why” and “so what” questions
Ex. How many ships arrived today?
Evaluative Assessments
primary goal is to evaluate, answers the “so what and the so what of the so what,” are often the most important part of assessment
Ex. Why are the ships arriving now?
Estimative Reports
about the future, multiple perspectives integrated, can be “strategic” (long term trends or patterns) or “tactical” (the adversary’s likely next move).
Ex. When will the port be full?”
Warning Assessments
communicate immediate threat; forewarn or sound alarm, predicated on presence
of indicators
Ex: Military
Maneuvers Suggest Preparations for Attack.
Art of Analysis
- Future Judgements
- Render Complexity Intelligible (ex. foreign cultures)
- Focus on Future not Marshal Facts
- Support Decision-Makers
- Written for Generalists
- Meaningful Characterization
- Begin with Conclusions and Explore Implications
What are two ways analysis can stand out from other sources of information
Intel Sources and Value Added
Analyst Fungibility
the tradeoff between analyst spending years developing expertise on a topic vs the need to move analytic firepower to the highest priority
Indications and Warning Intelligence
lists made about possible events in the future (surprise attacks, missile launches, nuclear tests, etc.); idea is to analyze what the adversary would have to do to do this then watch for it
Politicization of Intelligence
spinning the intelligence to get the answer one wants or one thinks the policymaker wants to hear
Inboden on Lines
Bright, Clear, + Firm between Policy and Intelligence
Blurry + Permeable between Policymakers and Intelligence Officials
Epistemology
How we know what we know; the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope. Epistemology is the investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion.
Optimism vs. Pessimism in tensions between policymakers and intelligence officials
Outcome in Iraq in 2004 election
2011 Clapper statement on Libya (war increases tension and the need for intelligence “to get on board)
Human Intelligence (HUMINT)
oldest form of intelligence, is acquired from humans; is NOT always clandestine, can be overt
George Washington
surveyor, knowing the land. White Post, VA; “first case officer,” created intel network that was judged to have made a vital difference in the outcome of the Revolution
Advantages of HUMINT
Intent
Cheapest
Flexibility
Only Alternative
Development of Deep area of knowledge
Collection synergy
Requirements or Operating Directive (based on location)
is the mission for collectors, where HUMINT begins
Recruitment Cycle
Spot/Access, Develop, Recruit, Turnover or Terminate
Traffic Analysis
analyze patterns of messaging even without content
SIGINT
Radio @ Tannenberg
Underwater telegraph cables@ Zimmerman
SIGINT is more broad than COMINT
YES, any type of info from machine, not just related to comms
ELINT
electronic intelligence, ex. signal emanating from a particular radar or weapons system
American Legal Order
Constitution ⤑ Statutes ⤑ Executive Orders ⤑ Agency Guidelines ⤑ Agency Procedures ⤑ Counsel ⤑ Civil Servant
Article 1: Congress
highlighting on state powers
Section 8: To declare war…necssary and proper
Article 2: The President
Section 1: executive power
Section 2 & 3: forms of diplomacy, office nominations (go later to Senate confirmation) but not explicitly given foreign relations power
What does the constitution do?
Authorizes (Articles)
Constraints (Bill of Rights)
A policy function and not an intelligence function
Covert Action
Three Aspects of CA under statutory definition
- Activity of the U.S. government
- Purpose is to influence military or political conditions abroad
- Role of USG will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly
There is no real plausible deniability within the government for CA
TRUE, the president ultimately approves in writing (since 1980)
Assassination
political killing of government leader; terrorists are targeted, non-political
Ladder of CA Activities
Information/Propaganda ⤑ Economic ⤑ Political Operations ⤑ Paramilitary ⤑ Assassinations Ban/Targeted Killing
CDU elections in Italy, influence in French Election, TPAJAX, STUXNET, Bay of Bigs
All historic examples of covert action
Battle of Tannenberg, Zimmerman Telegram, Black Chamber, MAGIC, Battle of Midway, ULTRA, VENOMA
All historic examples of SIGINT
What part of a message is transmitted via signals?
cipher text ; scrambled and deciphered from Plaintext using algorithm(KEY)
Defensive CI
Physical Security, Information Security, Personnel Security, Operational Security, Analysis
Offensive CI
Collection (on adversary services and their activities), Deception (especially in war), Analysis and Targeting
Director of the NSA is “dual hatted,” meaning…
he is not only in charge of SIGINT collection, but COMSEC for the USG
