Term 2 Flashcards
components of decision making
experiences, values, sensation, other people
what are the different types of decisions?
certain, uncertain (probability unknown), risky (probability known)
What is the Classical Decision Theory?
Expected Utility Theory (EUT)
Who created the Expected Utility Theory?
von Neumann, Morgenstern, 1947
What is EUT?
normative theory about how people should make choices
links choice with values and probability of options
based on logical assumptions
Subjective Expected Utility Theory (sEUT)
Rationale behind the maximum expected utility choice?
EU of all options evaluated
choice has the greatest value
rational choice = greatest expected utlity
what are the assumptions for rational decision making?
motivated to follow rules
complete knowledge of all options
accurate representations of options, risks
know their values and the values are stable
what is bounded rationality?
people’s reasoning is bounded by the limitations of our brain’s cognitive capacity
what are the 3 strategies that people may use to make decisions?
satisficing, elimination by aspects, heuristic
what is satisficing?
Simon, 1978 - choosing a ‘satisfactory’ criterion and choosing the first option that matches
what is elimination by aspects?
tversky, 1972 - choose and attribute and make trade-offs between options
what is heuristic decision making?
chaiken, 1981 - use a rule of thumb, not option information
what is system 1 information processing strategy?
hueristic, intuitive-experience, fast, sub-conscious
decision context, rule of thumb, informed by experience or beliefs
more likely to regret or make wrong choice
what is system 2 decision making strategy?
systematic, deliberative-analytic, slow attends to details of decision problem evaluates pros and cons choice based on trade-offs more stable values, happier with choice
how are decisions biased systematically?
by the decision context
presentation of information
context and cues
framing bias
direct - wording example
perceptions risks and value bias
indirect
perceptions of risk influence choice
can be influenced by media reports
components of informed decision making?
looking at advantages and negatives without bias
evaluating options with own values
trade-off evaluations to make choice and act on it
what are the 3 type of doctor error?
graber et al 2002 no fault (eg silent disease); system (eg delay in Xray); cognitive (eg flawed reasoning)
pattern recognition in doctor’s decision making
symptoms, chance, decision options
Model for diagnostic reasoning
Croskerry’s Dual Process Model of Diagnostic Reasoning (2009)
What is Croskerry’s model?
takes into account ‘pattern recognition’ within a dual process model
type 1 = recognised pattern
type 2 = not recognised
what is active open-mindedness?
searching for more options, look for counter-evidence, balance effort of searching with appeal of cognitive miser
increases good decision making!
what is good decision making?
effective use of information
good outcome that is liked (good decisions can have bad outcomes)
what are decision support interventions?
help people to make better decisions
patient decision aids –> reasoned/ informed choices
clinical decision aids –> accurate choices
shared decision aids –> effective communication between patients and professionals
