supply&demand Flashcards
Using a specific example, illustrate how weather can greatly affect wine production levels :
2013: high spring and summer rainfall in (usually dry) Castilla-La Mancha increased wine production in
Spain to 45.3m hl.
vs.
2017: spring frosts in much of Europe depressed global wine production to its lowest in 50 years. In
Castilla-La Mancha, production fel to 32.5m hl.
Broadly explain the concept of supply and demand, as it pertains to wine consumption
If demand exceeds supply => Prices likely to rise.
Some consumers will be willing to pay more for certain wines (if thought that no alternatives are available)
Others will be unwilling, seeking out cheaper options.
If supply exceeds demand => Prices likely to fall.
Producers may have to lower prices in order to remain competitive.
Consumers then have greater choice of cheap wines.
Identify the factors that can influence the Demand for Wine
Social Factors
Economic Factors
Legislative and Political Factors
Identify the categories of SOCIAL FACTORS that influence the demand for wine
Changes in (SHaRP) :
Spending Patterns
Consumption Habits.
Reputation.
Consumer Preferences
Identify the categories of ECONOMIC FACTORS that influence the demand for wine
ECONOMIC FACTORS that influence the demand for wine
Strength of the Economy
Fluctuations in Currency Exchange
Changes to the Market
Identify the categories of LEGISLATIVE AND POLITICAL FACTORS that influence the demand for wine
Wine Laws
International Trade
Laws Prohibiting or Limiting the Sale of Alcohol
Taxation
Government Policies to Reduce Alcohol Consumption
Describe the fluctuations of global wine consumption from 2003 to the present (5):
Global wine consumption :
Steady increase in wine consumption from 2005-08, mainly due to increased consumption in USA and
China.
Sharp decline in 2008 (global economic crisis) due to less spending on non-essentials.
Gradual increase as economy recovered from 2010-12.
Decline in 2013-14, due to less wine consumption in EU, particularly France and Italy.
Consumption gradually rising from 2015-present, starting to plateau; US consumption rising, China
beginning to decline slightly (end of rapid growth)
Though wine consumption worldwide has not reached pre-2008 recession levels, which categories of
wine have gained in popularity/consumption (2)?
Rosé and sparkling wine consumption has increased significantly.
e.g. sparkling wine consumption has increased annually by an average of 3% between 2002-2018
Describe the general trends of wine consumption over the last 2 decades for the following countries:
USA
France
Italy
Germany
China
Generally, consumption levels have fallen or become “static” in traditional wine-drinking countries
(France, Italy, Germany), while consumption in “non-traditional” countries has risen significantly.
USA: steady rise to over 30m hl in 2019, overtaking France as the world’s largest consumer by volume
in 2011.
FRANCE: gradual decline from over 30m hl to ~25m hl.
ITALY: sharp decline until 2015, when consumption levels began to rise again.
GERMANY: remained static, ~20m hl.
CHINA: experienced rapid growth till 2013, eventually leveling out
Identify some reasons behind the USA’s increased wine consumption from 2003-2019
USA’s increased wine consumption from 2003-2019 :
Wine has increasingly become part of the mainstream culture, increased willingness to try new wine
types.
Globalization of the food and bev industries (growth of MNC’s increased availability of wine from
different regions, countries).
Increases and improvements in wine production domestically
Q11
Identify some reasons behind CHINA’s increased wine consumption from 2003-2019 (2):
Growing middle class, desire to show wealth and status by shifting from local drinks to wine.
Desire to consume imported wines (at first, primarily French, but more recently Australian and
Chilean wines: less expensive due to bilateral trade agreement)
Identify and explain different factors that have possibly led to declines in wine consumption (4):
若者のワインの飲用頻度の低下: ワインは時代遅れとみなされる。他の飲み物が人気 (スペインではジンなど)。ソーシャルメディアでの交流が増えたため、バーやパブで過ごす時間が減った。
健康への懸念: アルコールが健康に与える悪影響に対する認識が高まった。たとえば、フランスの「ロワ・エヴァン」は、過度の飲酒を控えさせ、ワインの消費を抑えている。
ライフスタイルの変化: 忙しいライフスタイル = 食事の時間が短くなり、飲酒時間が減った。昼食時にワインを飲む習慣 (EU で一般的) は、雇用主がそれを禁止したり、社会的に受け入れられないと見なされたりして消えつつある。
安価なワインの入手性の低下: 過剰生産を減らすことを目的としたブドウの摘み取り計画などにより、安価なバルクワインの生産量/販売量/消費量が減少。飲酒者が他の安価なアルコール飲料/ノンアルコール飲料に切り替える。
Younger people drinking less wine: wine seen as old-fashioned; popularity of other drinks (e.g. gin in
Spain); less time spent in bars/pubs due to more social media interaction.
Health concerns: increased awareness of alcohol’s negative effects on health, e.g. the “Loi Evin” in
France, discouraging excessive drinking and depressing wine consumption.
Changes in lifestyle: busy lifestyles = shorter meals and less time spent drinking; tradition of drinking
wine at lunchtime (prevalent in EU) disappearing as employers are forbidding the practice, or it
being regarded as socially unacceptable.
Reduced availability of cheap wine: lower volumes of inexpensive, bulk wine being produced/sold/
consumed, e.g. due to vine pull schemes intended to reduce over-production; drinkers switching to
other, cheaper alcoholic/non-alcoholic drinks
What are the main trends in terms of Changing Consumer Preferences?
需要増加:
ロゼ(特に米国)
スパークリングワイン:旧プロセッコの販売(特に英国/米国)、生産量を増やして需要を満たすためにプロセッコDOCの境界を拡大。
低アルコールワイン(健康上の懸念)
需要減少:
甘口ワイン:旧中甘口ドイツワイン、例:リープフラウミルヒ(50年代、60年代、70年代に人気があった) = 一部のブランドは完全に姿を消し、他のブランド、例:ブルーナンは生き残るために生まれ変わった。
酒精強化ワイン(アルコール度数15~22%)
Increased demand for :
Rosé (esp. in USA)
Sparkling wine : ex Prosecco sales (esp. UK / USA); expansion of Prosecco DOC boundaries in
order to increase production and meet demand.
Lower-alcohol wines (health concerns)
Decreased deman for :
Sweet wines : ex Med. sweet German wines, e.g. Liebfraumilch (used to be popular in ‘50’s, 60’s,
70’s) = some brands have completely disappeared, while others, e.g. Blue Nun, have reinvented
themselves in order to survive.
Fortified wines (15-22% abv)
Explain how Changes In Reputation can affect wine consumption
Reputation (region, producer, individual wine or grape) can fluctuate, leading to rises and falls of
demand.
Reviews from reputable publications / critics (e.g. Jancis Robinson in the UK, Wine Spectator in the
USA) can encourage producers to raise their prices in subsequent vintages.
Online influencers / Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) can impact the desirability of specific wines/
producers.
Presence/exposure in pop culture, e.g. films, TV, music lyrics, celebrity endorsements, can increase
exposure and popularity
評判(地域、生産者、個々のワインやブドウ)は変動し、需要の増減につながります。
評判の高い出版物や評論家(英国のジャンシス・ロビンソン、米国のワイン・スペクテイターなど)によるレビューは、生産者に次のヴィンテージで価格を上げるよう促す可能性があります。
オンラインのインフルエンサーやキー・オピニオン・リーダー(KOL)は、特定のワインや生産者の魅力に影響を与える可能性があります。
映画、テレビ、音楽の歌詞、有名人の推薦など、ポップカルチャーでの存在や露出は、露出と人気を高める可能性があります。
Explain how Changes In Spending Patterns have affected wine consumption habits
The rise of ‘premiumization’; the willingness to spend more on individual bottles of wine because fewer
bottles are being purchased.
Price-sensitive markets (Germany, UK) :
Most consumers are unwilling to pay more than the lowest price possible for the desired style of wine.
Fierce competition = lower prices for consumers, but fewer options as selling wine at this pricepoint would
be unprofitable for many producers.
Producers hope to build up ‘brand loyalty’ over time as part of marketing campaigns, thereby avoiding the
problem of passing on production costs to the consumer.
Non Price-Sensitive Markets (France, USA) :
Consumers are more willing to pay above the min. price for a wine they perceive to be higher in quality
than the cheapest option.
「プレミアム化」の台頭。購入されるワインの数が減ったため、個々のワインにもっとお金をかける意欲が高まった。
価格に敏感な市場(ドイツ、英国):
ほとんどの消費者は、希望するスタイルのワインに可能な限り最低価格以上のお金を払いたがらない。
熾烈な競争 = 消費者にとって価格は下がるが、この価格でワインを販売すると多くの生産者にとって利益が出ないため、選択肢は減る。
生産者は、マーケティング キャンペーンの一環として、時間をかけて「ブランド ロイヤルティ」を構築し、生産コストを消費者に転嫁するという問題を回避したいと考えている。
価格に敏感でない市場(フランス、米国):
消費者は、最も安い選択肢よりも品質が高いと認識しているワインには、最低価格以上のお金を払う意欲が強い。
What is a PRICE-SENSITIVE MARKET?
A
富裕度に関係なく、多くの消費者が特定の製品に対して可能な限り最低価格以上の金額を支払おうとしない市場。例:ドイツ、英国
A market in which many consumers are unwilling to spend more than the lowest price possible for a certain
product, regardless of affluence, e.g. Germany and the UK
Explain how the Strength of the Economy can affect wine consumption habits :
Sales of wine will change with the level of consumer disposable income (i.e. the amount of money a person
has after paying taxes
Sales will :
Decrease : When DI falls, as in a recession, wine consumers are likely to trade down to cheaper wines or
switch to other, less expensive alcoholic drinks (e.g. beer or cider). For example, during the recession
following the 2008 financial crash, demand for Champagne shrank whilst that for other, cheaper sparkling
wines grew.
Increase : When an economy is growing, such as has been seen in China, disposable income increases
and consumers are often willing to buy more expensive wine. As explained above, the emerging middle
class in China has driven the increase in wine sales and demand for aspirational wines, such as those from
Bordeaux and Burgundy, has increased
売上は次のようになります:
減少: 不況などでDIが下がると、ワイン消費者はより安いワインに切り替えたり、他のより安価なアルコール飲料(ビールやサイダーなど)に切り替えたりする可能性が高くなります。たとえば、2008年の金融危機後の不況時には、シャンパンの需要が減り、他のより安価なスパークリングワインの需要は増加しました。
増加: 中国で見られるように、経済が成長しているときは可処分所得が増加し、消費者はより高価なワインを購入する傾向があります。前述のように、中国の新興中流階級がワイン売上の増加を牽引し、ボルドーやブルゴーニュなどの憧れのワインの需要が増加しています。
Explain how Fluctuations in Currency Exchange can affect wine consumption habits :
A
Particularly significant in PRICE-SENSITIVE MARKETS.
If wine-exporting country’s currency strengthens :
Exporting become more expensive :
Producers may have to lower prices to remain competitive.
Keeping the price stable will result in decrease of sales
Importing become less expensive (barrels, corks, yeast …)
Alternatively, if wine-exporting country’s currency weakens :
Exporting become less expensive.
Keep price stable which would boost sales (e.g. 21st C. boom in Argentinian wine exports due to weak
Peso.)
Increase price to improve profits.
Importing become more expensive
Explain how Changes to the Market can affect wine consumption habits (3)
When products disappear from the market, this creates opportunities for competition.
e. g. if supply of Brand A Zinfandel decreases, demand for Brand B may increase.
Limited quantities also create the opportunity to raise prices (real/perceived scarcity).
Introduction of a new, lower-priced or better value wine may eat into demand for other similar wines,
causing producers to lower prices or search for alternative markets.
What are the three differents approach countries/states have in terms of regulating the sale of alcohol
(Laws Prohibiting or Limiting the Sale of Alcohol) :
The sale of alcohol can be :
Prohibited : in a number of countries, such as Indonesia and Iran
Tightly-controlled : for example, through state-owned monopolies in countries such as Sweden, Norway
and Canada, or, in the USA, the three-tier system. Any such controls inevitably limit the supply of wine
and usually increase prices.
Freely available : there is usually a minimum legal drinking age and sales of alcohol are generally limited
to particular hours of the day
Explain how Gov’t Policies to Reduce Alcohol Consumption can affect wine consumption habits:
Name 3 specific policies:
Many countries desire to reduce excessive alcohol consumption; illness, injuries, strain on health
services, crimes caused by drunkenness.
Three famouse policies in order to achieve that :
The “Loi Evin”; introduced by France in ‘91, restricted advertising of alcoholic drinks = significant
reduction in wine consumption in France.
“Minimum Unit Pricing”; introduced by Scotland to reduce availability of cheap alcohol, min. price of an
alcoholic drink is GBP 0.50 = a 750ml bottle of wine (9 drinks) must be at least GBP 4.50 (previously
could be GBP 3)
Lowering the Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) limit for drivers in order to prevents accidents caused
by drunk drivers
Explain how Taxation can affect wine consumption habits (2):
Identify an example of both INCREASED and DECREASED consumption
Gov’ts impose taxes and duty on alcoholic bevs, which can reduce consumption due to higher prices,
but gov’ts also gain revenue from taxes. Therefore, it must be handled strategically.
Ireland : Major difference between tax on still (€3.19/bottle) and sparkling (€6.37/bottle) has greatly
reduced the demand for the latter.
Hong Kong : Importation duty on wine abolished in 2008, intended to make HK the “wine trading hub” of
East Asia. Caused a massive increase in auction sales of fine wine there.
Describe the changes in global wine trade/exports since 2003 :
Global wine exports have more than doubled since 2003, from around €15 billion to over €30 billion, despite
minor dips here and there, e.g. 2008 global recession