Superpower futures Flashcards
Energy
Pressure on energy can be illustrated by car ownership, in 2003 13.6 out of every 1000 urban households in China had a car. In the same year, car ownership in the USA was 750 out of 1000.
Rapid rise in oil prices in 2007 and 2008 was the outcome of rising demand and stagnating supply. Oil may be being pumped quicker than new reserves are being found.
A key resources concern is the path India and China take as they continue to grow economically and gain power.
The impact on resources
The economic development of the ‘newcomers’ emerging such as Brazil, Russia, India and China is raising some concerns:
The accelerating demand for energy and other resources.
Impact on the environment, from global warming to localised pollution.
The uneven distribution of the benefits of economic growth, with growing inequality between the urban rich and the rural poor.
Environment
Chinese and Indian ecological footprint might be similar to those of the EU and the USA by 2040, which would place huge pressure on water, energy and resources. Such a future might be possible with a dramatic shift towards renewables.
The impact on the older core regions
Rise of new superpowers as enormous implications for the rest of the world. Until recently, the emergence of new superpowers was seen as an opportunity rather than a threat. The EU, Japan, and the USA have experienced economic growth and falling consumer prices driven by the explosion of economic activity in NICs and RICs.
Case study: Russia and it’s energy exports
There economy relies on crude oil and natural gas exports. Recently reserves found in Siberia could add to their global power. Russia has developed important export partnerships with China and Europe.
Russia depends on Europe to buy 80% of its oil exports.
During the past decade, China has joined Japan and South Korea as a major importer of crude oil from the Middle East. This region supplies:
Almost 50% of China’s oil
80% of Japan and South Korea’s oil.
Russia and it’s energy exports: Natural resources
Natural resource reserves have given Russia increased global significance and confidence. The impacts have been felt by some countries:
In 2006, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine for 3 days over payment dispute.
In August 2008 Russian troops entered Georgia leading a short conflict.
3) Russian gas supplies were also cut off to Ukraine and the EU in 2008-9
Preserving prosperity
Cheaper food and electronics from China have benefitted people in the USA and EU. They have come to terms with the emerging powers and are assured by their quaternary industries.
Major technology players like Apple and Microsoft have established research facilities in China and India. They have gone to source an innovative labour force. Outsourcing has become a major concern for Americans.
Emerging powers and the majority of the world: Oppotunities
Growing economies demand resources, some human and some physical. The growing Gulf state economies are rapidly diversifying away from oil and gas and towards tourism and research. This has generated a spectacular building boom in the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain.
Emerging powers and the rest of the world: Resources
BRICS are in need of physical as well as human resources to fuel their economic growth. China alone accounted for 40% of the total growth in global demand for oil in 2003-08. Congo and Zambia possess 50% of the world’s cobalt reserves, 98% of the world’s chrome is in Zimbabwe and South Africa.
Case study: China in Africa, development or colonisation?
China’s search for oil and mineral resources has focused on Africa. Chinese companies are investing heavily, mainly on oil exploration projects.
Around 30% of China’s oil comes from Africa.
In 2007 they invested 30 billion US dollars.
China in Africa: the critics
Critics argue that all China wants from Africa is its resources and has no interest in African development. Most of the investment goes to African governments and TNCs, not to the people.
Oil
The US’s thirst for oil has boosted the importance of countries like Angola and Nigeria. In the next 10 years Africa will become the US’s second largest exporter of oil.
Companies, mostly US based spent 500 million dollars on oil exploration after the 2004 attempted coup in Sao Tome and Principe.
War
Support for the US war in Iraq at first was solid with support from the UK, Italy, Spain…
The war was opposed by France and Germany and the UN. After the initial invasion many countries withdrew their troops undermining the ‘coalition’. Many European countries believed the war was more about gaining oil.
Terrorism
Islamic terrorism is most often directed at USA, although it is questionable whether it is aimed at the USA due to a dislike of American culture, or more directed at American military and politics.
The Future
Tensions between superpowers are only likely to increase. As the emerging superpowers gain ground, there is the potential for a clash of culture. Islamic radicalism has the potential to creat huge tension due to it’s hatred of what they believe is corruption in the West.
