Structured analytic techniques Flashcards
Key Assumptions Check
Is used to seek for assumptions. Assumptions are often used to temporarily fill intelligence gaps within our work but should only be if they are informed.
What are the classifications in the KAC?
Solid: Supported by a sufficient amount of evidence (beyond a reasonable doubt)
Caveated: Supported by strong indicators, but needs to be qualified
- Some evidence but also counter points
Questionable/unsupported: Weak evidence and/or alternatives have not been sufficiently considered
Obvious assumptions
Hidden assumptions
What does a Key Assumptions check counter
The peril of mirror imaging
My opponent essentially is like me, will come to the same conclusions and uses the same ‘operating system’ of reasoning.
Quality information check
Long-term tracking of sources’ reliability through databases, including strengths and weaknesses of a source; establishing “source histories”
Reliability and Credibility
Counters availability bias
Signpost of Change
Indicator tracking
- Using key indicators to identify a possible trigger
Counters
Recency effect: A cognitive bias in which those items, ideas, or arguments that came last are remembered more.
Devils advocacy
Making the best counterpoint, attacking the conventional wisdom
To find weaknesses in conclusions and stop self censorship
Counters group think: A phenomenon that occurs when a group of individuals reaches a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the consequences or alternatives.
And Politicised intelligence: Intelligence tailored to political biasses
Team A / Team B
One team does their version of their investigation
Another team does an investigation from a different perspective.
Counters Vividness criteria: Personal experiences give you a different outlook and can give you a bias or prejudice.
High impact / Low probability analysis
Examining unlikely scenario’s, “thinking the unthinkable”.
Sometimes we forget/don’t want to put our research money on something.
Focus on “Pathways”, “Triggers” and “Observables”
“What if” Analysis
Assuming that events have occurred and
tracing the chain of events backwards
Identify “Watersheds” -> Beginnings of events
And Butterfly effects -> Big results big cause (Big events can have small beginnings)
Brain storming
Helps to avoid bounded rationality
Has to be more organised than thought
- Have a structure
Counters Bounded rationality
Outside in thinking
Instead of looking at a specific event you start looking at external key forces the actors have no control over
Counters Fundamental attribution error:
People say that if they do something it’s because of who they are. Even though in reality it is because of external factors.
Red Team analysis
Switching perspectives, “walking
in the shoes of the enemy”
Counters mirror imaging Useful for leadership analysts (works well with
psychological profiling)
Required knowledge of enemy way of thinking
Alternative Futures Analysis
“scenario planning”
Identifying driving forces
Helps to distinguish between
correlation and causation
Based on a coordinate system of to key
variables
