Strategy and future planning

Question 1

Strategy and future planning

Answer 1

Quantitative forecasting

Qualitative forecasting

Scenario planning …

… and strategy

… 8 step development process

… 6 benefits

… as a strategic technique

Examples

Question 2

Quantitative forecasting

Answer 2

MAKRIDAKIS

• time series
  
  • predict future from past
• explanatory
  
  • identify relationships between variables

Question 3

Qualitative forecasting

Answer 3

Jury method

Focus groups

Delphi studies

Question 4

Scenario planning and strategy

Answer 4

Sense-making

Risk analysis

Uncertainty

Complexity

Turbulance

Robust vs optimal

Question 5

Scenario planning 8 step development process

Answer 5

BURT et al

Input from analysis

• identify areas of concern
• brainstorn for key uncertainties
• prioritise uncertainties
• the importance/uncertainty matrix

Create scenarios

• develop scenarios
• articulate and flesh out scenarios

Formulate strategy

• identify structural insights and potential discontinuities
• system behaviour

Question 6

Six benefits of scenario planning

Answer 6

BOOD & POSTMA

1. what if?
2. evaluating and selecting strategies
3. integrating data
4. exploring the future
5. increased awareness of uncertainty
6. organisational learning

Question 7

Scenario planning as a strategic technique

Answer 7

VERITY

Styles (interlinked)

• formal
  
  • computer-generated models (w/probabilities)
• intuitive
  
  • humanistic attempts

Question 8

Examples

Answer 8

• Sir David Michels, Hilton (beware of optimistic forecasts)
• Lego (used scenario planning to manage uncertainty)
• Fever tree
• VisitScotland (adopted scenario planning to frame strategic planning)
• Sophia Tickell, SustainAbility (creative thinking under seige)
• P Shoemaker, US consultant (what to do with scenarios? sense-making, refine strategy, holistic risk analysis)