Strategy Flashcards
Breakdown of the word “strategy” & what it is
stratos = army
ago = bring or lead
- act of leadership of armies
- strategy is intended to get somewhere
- means played at general’s disposal, strategy must accommodate a situation
- process of interrelating ends and means
“the practical adaptation of the
means placed at a general’s
disposal to the attainment of the
object in view”
Field Marshal Helmuth
Karl Bernhard Graf von
Moltke (1800-1891)
“A campaign strategy is simply a definition of how the candidate will win.” “It answers … ‘Who will vote for this candidate?’ and ‘Why will they do so?’”
Joel C. Bradshaw,
Democratic political
consultant
In “Inside Campaigns”, Feltus, Goldstein and Dallek state questions that every candidate musk ask in order to be successful:
Who are our targets? - what groups of people will support our candidate in order to win
What are they doing? - do we need to respond to oppo attacks, what tactics are oppo using to mobilize, target, convince voters to vote for their candidate
How do we reach them? - what methods will be used to reach potential supporters to convince them to vote for your candidate
What do we tell them? - what message are we transmitting to voters to vote for our candidate
How are we doing? - are methods used to reach people working
Difference between strategy and tactics
difference between tactics and strategy
strategy is a concept to win, that is intangible
tactic - conduct, a tool to implement strategy
while your opponent can see what your doing, you don’t want them to do know why you’re doing it
strategy has impact of getting what you’re trying to do
This is not the difference:
“In tactics you attack the enemy from in front. In strategy you take him from the sides.” Largo Caballero, character in “Night Before Battle” (1939) by Ernest Hemingway
What did it say in the art of war about strategy and tactics?
“All men can see the tactics
whereby I conquer, but what
none can see is the strategy
out of which victory is evolved.”
What are examples of tactics?
- celebrity power (endorsements or celebs as candidates)
- political memes
- removing candidates
Toronto Star, “Political parties are reaching for these
campaign tactics as voting day nears” (2019, October 7)
More quotes from art of war
“Winning Strategists are certain of triumph before seeking a challenge. Losing Strategists are certain to challenge before seeking a triumph.” R.L. Wing trans. “… the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.” L. Giles trans.
Faucheaux’s 10 Steps
- Do Demographic Profile of Voters
- Do Attitudinal Profile of Voters
- Do Coalition Profile of Voters needed to win
- Inventory your strengths as candidate
- Inventory your weaknesses as candidate
- Inventory opposition’s strengths and weaknesses
- Draws lines of distinction between your strengths and the opposition’s weaknesses
- Craft the message
- Draw a message box - breaks down your message into
four parts: what you will say about yourself; what you will
say about your opponent; what your opponent will say about
himself or herself; what your opponent will say about you. - Test your message
Question 1: From a geographic, ethnic, partisan, social
and demographic perspective, will this message appeal to the
groups necessary for my winning coalition
Question 2: Does this message zero-in on both your
strengths and your opposition’s weaknesses? Does it take full
advantage of “mirror opposites,” if you have any?
Go back through the lists you’ve made and recheck them.
Question 3: Does this message apply uniquely to you in
this race (as opposed to being so generic that any other candidate could use the same message just as appropriately)?
What constitutes developing strategy?
- Research
- Vote Goal
- “Winning Coalition”
- Situational Analysis
- Opposition Analysis
- Needs Assessment / Gap Analysis
- Strategic & Operational “Imperatives”
- Positioning Drivers
- Positioning Framing
- Ballot Question
- Message Box
- Narrative
Basic research that needs to be done:
- Electoral history
- Demographics
- Attitudes, concerns, issues
- Candidate
- Opposition
Vote Goal
Vote Goal
enough support to put you over the top
two-way race 50% +1
in multi-candidate race it depends
How many actual votes does this person need to win?
need to know electoral history
how many people will vote this time
when running in riding race, we may know it will take certain percentage, but we can’t mobilize percent
we mobilize numbers of people, not percent
translate percentage into absolute number
to have to figure out how many votes you need to win, you need to know how many are expected to vote
if there are a certain number of eligable votes, of how many voted?
of those votes, how many will you need to win at ballot box
estimate of how many votes will be cast
in electoral district, we can count on certain number of votes we will get every tie
looking at history
historic average, historic baseline
identified vote x turnout factor
if our opponents have been going up in votes, you have to mitigate, modify and be sensible about assumptions
be cautious, underestimate assumptions about you, cautious on erring on side of excess of opponents
Base Vote
- Absolute minimum vote share
* Historic worst
Swing Vote
• Swing Vote = Total Vote – (BV1 + BV2 +BV3)
Other Considerations
you’ve got to be careful in deciding if provincial results are relevant when examining federal results
to apply same criteria of prudence and caution
when looking at myself, if party has fallen low in either federal or provincial jurisdiction,
eg. if there’s a sobering message in another level, use it
you have add other things, popular incumbent,
in ontario, federal turnout is higher than provincial
general turnout higher than byelection turnout
Turnout
Votes Cast = Total Eligible X Turnout Rate
Total Eligible X Turnout Rate = Votes Cast
60,000 eligible voters X 65% turnout = 39,000 votes
Vote Goal
mobilize supporters + persuade voters = winning coalition
