Strategic asset allocation Flashcards
Recap: Diversification
- Market risk
- Firm-specific risk
Market risk
•Risk that is attributable to marketwide risk sources and remains even after extensive diversification
•Also called systematic or nondiversifiable
Firm-specific risk
•Risk that can be eliminated by diversification
•Also called diversifiable or nonsystematic
Recap: Portfolio diversification
Portfolio risk (variance) depends on the correlation between the returns of the assets in the portfolio
•Covariance and the correlation coefficient provide a measure of the way returns of two assets move together (covary)
minimum variance portfolio
The minimum variance portfolio is the portfolio composed of risky assets that has the smallest standard deviation: the portfolio with the least risk
•The amount of possible risk reduction through diversification depends on the correlation:
•If r = +1.0, no risk reduction is possible
•If r = 0, σP may be less than the standard deviation of either component asset
•If r = -1.0, a riskless hedge is possible
The Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- It is the equilibrium model that underlies all modern financial theory
- Derived using principles of diversification with simplified assumptions
- Markowitz, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin are researchers credited with its development
CAPM Assumptions
–Investors aim to maximize economic utilities and have homogenous expectations
•All investors optimize portfolios a la Markowitz
•Investors are price takers and share the same information at the same time
•Investors use identical input list for the efficient frontier
–Same risk-free rate, tangent CAL and risky portfolio
–Market portfolio is aggregation of all risky portfolios and has the same weights
•No frictions: assets are divisible and liquid, no trading costs, taxes, or capital constraints
Equilibrium Conditions
•All investors will hold the same portfolio of risky assets – that is the market portfolio
–Market portfolio contains all securities and the proportion of each security is its market value as a percentage of total market value.
•All investors hold the combination of the market portfolio and the risk free rate, where the proportions depend on their risk aversion
Extensions of the CAPM
Zero beta CAPM: no risk free asset •Multi-period CAPM •Consumption based CAPM •Liquidity CAPM •...
Liquidity and the CAPM
•Liquidity: the ease and speed with which an asset can be sold at fair market value
Illiquidity Premium: discount from fair market value the seller must accept to obtain a quick sale.
–One measure is the bid-ask spread
–As trading costs are higher, the illiquidity discount will be greater.
Multifactor models
for security i
ßGDP = Factor sensitivity for GDP
ßIR = Factor sensitivity for Interest Rate
ei = Firm specific events
•The expected return on a security is a sum of
1.The risk-free rate
2.The sensitivity to GDP times the risk premium for bearing GDP risk
3.The sensitivity to interest rate risk times the risk premium for bearing interest rate risk
..iiIRiGDPii
.
ieIRGDPR
iGDPi
iGDPiieIRGDP
iIRiGDPiieIR
eIR
e
APT & well-diversified portfolios
RP = E (RP) + bPF + eP F = some factor
•For a well-diversified portfolio, eP
–approaches zero as the number of securities in the portfolio increases
–and their associated weights decrease
APT
- Assumes a well-diversified portfolio, but residual risk is still a factor.
- Does not assume investors are mean-variance optimizers.
- Uses an observable, market index
- Reveals arbitrage opportunities
CAPM
- Model is based on an inherently unobservable “market” portfolio.
- Rests on mean-variance efficiency. The actions of many small investors restore CAPM equilibrium.
Two-Factor Model
•The multifactor APT is similar to the one-factor case.
•Track with diversified factor portfolios:
–We do not observe factors but can construct portfolios that mimic their behavior
–beta=1 for one of the factors and 0 for all other factors.
•The factor portfolios track a particular source of macroeconomic risk, but are uncorrelated with other sources of risk.
𝑅𝑖=𝐸 𝑅𝑖 +β𝑖1𝐹1+β𝑖2𝐹2+𝑒𝑖
Investment styles
Small vs. large cap
Value vs. growth
High vs. low risk
Foreign vs. domestic
Measurement Error in Beta
•Problem: if beta in the first stage is measured with error, then the slope coefficient of the second regression equation will be biased downward and the intercept biased upward.
•Solution: construct P with large dispersion of beta. Then, by ranking them, they yield insightful tests of the SML
–Fama and MacBeth procedure
–Using individual assest instead