Spec S3

Question 1

Historical evidence for global warming

Answer 1

1824: Greenhouse effect discovered
1862: Tyndall first suggested certain gases (water vapour and CO2) trapped heat escaping from the Earth-atmosphere system and that glacials were associated with periods of low atmospheric CO2
1896: Observed that CO2 is an absorber of long-wave radiation emitted by the Earth, also found that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase average global temperatures by 5 or 6 degrees
1938: Global warming in the 19th century was linked to emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels, however this assertion was dismissed at the time as it was believed that any excess CO2 would be absorbed immediately by oceans
1957: Complex chemical process discovered which limited the capacity of the oceans to absorb CO2, meant that the residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere was much longer than previously thought
1958: Accurate measurements of global atmospheric CO2 began at the Mauna Loa observatory on Hawaii, this database provided proof that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were increasing year by year

Question 2

The global warming debate

Answer 2

• During 1970s, some scientists argued that global warming was a reality and some favoured global cooling and an imminent new glacial period
• However, as satellite imaging and computer modelling advanced, the argument swung in favour of global warming
• Computer models revealed that human activity was probably the main forcing agent of global warming and climate change, such was the concern that in 1988 the IPCC was set up
• 97% of scientists now support the view that global warming is taking place, however there is still some debate about its causes
• Dissenters argue that rising temperatures in the first half of the 20th century were due to increased solar output and exceptional volcanic activity, but this argument has been undermined by the continued rise in temperatures since 1950, despite reductions in both solar and volcanic activity
• Once global temperatures increase above the 2 degree threshold, it is widely held that abrupt and irreversible climate change will begin to occur, already there is clear evidence that the Greenland ice cap is melting
• Other forecasts suggest fundamental changes in global oceanic circulation and the release of massive amounts of carbon from tropical forests, soils , permafrost and undersea stores
• 2/3 of population in USA now accept the causal linkage between global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Question 3

What are examples of governments and international organisations have taken action against global climate change?

Answer 3

UN
EU
UK
India

Question 4

Actions by the UN

Answer 4

• 1992, 41 countries joined an international treaty, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to consider what action should be taken to limit global warming
• Efforts of the UNFCCC culminated in the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, set legally binding targets for the first time on countries to reduce GHG emissions
• 192 countries were parties to the Kyoto Protocol though several major GHG emitters including the USA and China never ratified the treaty
• Kyoto recognised that ACs through their cumulative GHG emissions over the past 150 years were primarily responsible for global warming and climate change, therefore placed a heavier burden on these countries to take action
• First commitment period (2004-08) involved 37 countries + EU member states, who agreed to reduce their GHG emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2012, second commitment set more ambitious target - 18% below 1990 levels by 2020, a number of countries including Canada, Russia and Japan, pulled out at this stage
• International climate change conferences under the auspices of the UN, with delegates from all countries, take place each year aiming to achieve legally binding agreement to combat climate change
• The priority is to reduce GHG emissions and limit global temperature increases to no more than 2 degrees above the pre-industrial average, unfortunately the conferences held between 2009 and 2014 failed to reach agreement, meanwhile global carbon emissions have continued to rise

Question 5

Actions by the EU

Answer 5

• Past 25 years, it has compiled a comprehensive package of measures to reduce GHG emissions through its European Climate Change Programme, each EU state also has in place its own policies which build on and complement the ECCP
• EU’s earliest efforts to limit carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency date back to 1991, first ECCP was launched in 2000, second one launched in 2005
• Through the ECCP the EU has set targets for reducing GHG emissions up to 2050, the aim is to transform the EU into a low carbon economy, legally binding targets commit member states to a 20% cut in GHG emissions, 20% of electricity generated from renewables and a 20% improvement in energy efficiency
• Emissions Trading System is the cornerstone of the EU’s climate policy and covers 45% of emissions from the EU, this cap and trade scheme targets a 21% reduction in emissions from power stations, industry and aviation
• National Emissions Reduction Targets cover the remaining 55% of GHG emissions, mainly from agriculture, housing, waste and transport, member states also have targets for expanding the contribution of renewables to national energy production and for improvements in energy efficiency

Question 6

Actions taken by the UK

Answer 6

• Climate Change Act (2008) commits the government to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared with 1990, and to develop a more energy-efficient, low-carbon economy
  UK strategy includes:
• setting carbon budgets (5 year periods) as stepping stones towards the 2050 target
• reducing demand for energy using domestic smart meters, promoting energy efficiency (eg. insulation in buildings) and reducing GHG emissions from transport and agriculture
• investing in low-carbon technologies such as carbon-capture storage and encouraging the growth of renewables by offering subsidies and reducing GHG emissions from power stations
• carbon taxes to switch electricity generation from coal to greener fuels, in 2014 there were 10 coal-fired power stations in the UK but they were responsible for 1/5 of UK carbon emissions
• introduced in 2013, taxed carbon emissions started at £16/tonne with a planned rise to £70/tonne by 2030
• although in 2015 the tax was frozen at just over £18/tonne amid concerns about cost of electricity to consumers, three of the UK’s remaining coal-fired stations (Ferrybridge, Eggborough and Longannet) closed in 2015/16, closures were due in part to the carbon tax and in part to low global energy prices, carbon taxes have been levied on vehicle CO2 emissions since 2002

Question 7

Actions taken by India

Answer 7

• Did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, Indian government argue that rich countries should shoulder the costs of reducing carbon emissions - this view prevented the USA (world’s largest GHG emitter at the time) from supporting Kyoto, US government believed that without participation of India and China, protocol would be meaningless
• India’s case was that its per capita energy consumption (1.7 tonnes) was well below the global average of 5 tonnes, its priorities were alleviating poverty and expanding access to electricity and current high concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were largely the result of industrialisation and economic growth in ACs over the previous years
• At 2014 climate conference, India’s environment minister stated that India would not consider reducing its emissions for at least 30 years
• India has its own National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) but so far has only decided to reduce its GHG emissions as a ratio of its GDP, using this measure it targets a 20-25% reduction in emissions
• On domestic front, India’s NAPCC aims to improve energy efficiency and develop renewables, especially solar power and a sort of carbon tax is currently levied on coal, both imported and domestic
• Given its current policies, GHG emissions are expected to be in the range 4.0-7.3 billion tonnes by 2030, compared with 2.5 billion tonnes in 2010

Question 8

What role does the media and interest groups play?

Answer 8

• Given that the overwhelming majority of climate scientists believe in human caused climate change, the issue remains remarkably controversial - it is argued that this situation is partly due to media misrepresentation
• Depending on political leanings of media organisations, reporting may be deliberately slanted - right leaning newspapers (eg. The Times and Sunday Telegraph) are more likely to report sceptical opinions on climate change than left-leaning newspapers (eg. The Guardian), this makes the climate change issue appear more open to question than it really is
• In an attempt to provide a balanced discussion, some media organisations, including the BBC have been accused of false balance, by giving disproportionate coverage to contrarians and sceptics, they suggest that climate change is much more controversial than experts believe
• The strongest opponents of climate change have been energy industries such as major oil and gas corporations and mining companies, clearly such groups have a vested interest in maintaining the pre-eminence of fossil fuels and protecting their profits
• These groups see restrictions on the consumption of fossil fuels as weakening economic growth, creating unemployment and even as a political ploy to redistribute wealth
• Moreover, these groups have the resources and influence to manipulate the media and elected politicians, some energy companies even recruit dissident scientists to support their case
• At the same time, the media have often weakened the climate change arguments in the public mind by simplistic and sensational reporting, all of this has tended to confuse the public and add doubt to the credibility of climate change and its causes