Solvency Flashcards

1
Q

When is an insurer considered solvent?

A

An insurer is considered solvent if it can meet all its liabilities as and when they fall due with an acceptably high level of probability.

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2
Q

Against what risks does capital provide a cushion?

A

Capital provides a cushion against the risks of unexpected losses arising from business expansion and fluctuations in the value of assets and liabilities, income, and expenditure, especially in claims and expenses.

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3
Q

Describe the risk management framework in six steps

A

The risk management framework encompasses six steps: objective setting, risk identification, risk assessment, strategy planning, risk monitoring, and control

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4
Q

Name at least three dimensions of aggregation in which diversification benefits can arise.

A

Diversification benefits can arise from aggregation in at least three dimensions: among similar risks (for example, within credit risk), across types of risk (for example, across market, credit, and underwriting risk), and across financial en- tities in a group (for example, across an insurer and a bank within a commonly owned group).

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5
Q

How do insurance company transactions with related parties create additional risks?

A

Insurance company transactions with related parties create additional risks be- cause there is an absence of market discipline, possibly signaling that funds are being employed in areas that will be of benefit to the related parties but not to policyholders.

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6
Q

While capital can mitigate operational risk, what other approaches are available to address operational risk?

A

While capital can mitigate operational risk, this type of risk also must be ad- dressed through good corporate governance, internal controls, and risk man- agement practices.

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7
Q

When insurers make use of internal models, what should the insurance supervisor do?

A

When insurers make use of internal models, the insurance supervisor should confirm that models have been developed, are reviewed at all stages of the model by those with appropriate expertise, and produce comparable results with the al- ternative approaches to determining capital in the industry.

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8
Q

What are the possible sources of a company’s founding capital?

A

A company’s founding capital can come from shareholders (private or govern- ment) or founding policyholders in the case of a mutual

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9
Q

What are the major categories of risk?

A

The major categories of risk normally used are insurance risk, market risk, credit risk, and operational risk.

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10
Q

What does scenario testing enable insurers to examine?

A

Scenario testing enables insurers to examine the results of a given course of ac- tion if a limited range of possible future assumptions or events occurs.

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11
Q

How to manage solvency risk to ensure insurers remain solvent under a variety of adverse but reasonably possible future circumstances?

A
  1. Scenario test. Does not consider the probability of event
  2. Develop a stochastic or statistical model of important variables, which incorporate information on how they have varied in the past
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12
Q

What causes the mismatch between models and real life?

A
  1. Wrongly specified models. wrong variables or wrong assumptions about stat distribution of the variables their relationships
  2. Parameter risk. Parameters in the model have not been estimated properly
  3. Stochastic variability is the uncertainty arises by chance
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13
Q

What is an economic capital

A

Capital requirement set by board of an insurer, which is needed to protect company against economic losses rather than an amount needed to meet a regulatory requirement

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14
Q

Need of capital: prudential regulator

A

Prudential regulators and supervisory authorities operate under various mandates that often require them to maintain public confidence in the financial soundness of the institutions they regulate. Such confidence is enhanced if insurers clearly have more than enough capital to ensure their solvency.

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15
Q

Need of capital: owner of capital

A

owners are likely to want a higher rate of return on the insurer’s capital than is available in the market from investments. This is obviously necessary if there are additional tax costs

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16
Q

Need of capital: policyholders

A

Policyholders want the certainty that higher levels of capital offer but prefer not to pay the additional premiums to cover the higher profits demanded by the owners of capital. This is one reason for the existence of mutual insurers, in which policyholders provide the capital, thereby reducing this particular problem.

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17
Q

What assumptions are covered in life insurance liabilities

A

Statistical models of mortality, disability, and perhaps other claim rates broken down by age and sex, often duration since the policies were taken out, and pos- sibly other categories; for disability income claims, assumptions as to the rate of recovery are needed
• Economic assumptions covering interest rates, investment returns, and infla- tion
• Business assumptions as to rates of lapse, surrender, or discontinuation of premiums.

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18
Q

What assumptions are used in non-life insurance liabilities

A

the economic and business assumptions are of the same sort, but the claim assumptions also cover the following:
• Statistical models of claim rates and the size of claims
• The delay between when claims are incurred and when they are reported and
finally paid.

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19
Q

Examples that regulators require companies to perform their own stress testing

A

For instance, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s minimum capital requirements for general insurers include risk-based re- quirements for insurance and investment risk and an additional amount for “concen- tration risk.” This is the amount that the insurer estimates to be its “maximum event retention”—the most that the company expects to lose from a single event—after rein- surance recoveries.

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20
Q

What is insurance risk?

A

Risk that amount of claims will exceed the premiums collected

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21
Q

What is the amount required to cover the particular risk

A

the greater of the normal amount of risk-based capital and that required to pass the stress test

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22
Q

What is stress tests used for

A

Stress tests are required to supplement standard regulatory capital requirements and provide an understanding of the ability of an insurer to withstand threats to its solvency.

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23
Q

Should supervisory authorities be concerned about the size of the losses if com- panies become insolvent? For instance, should they make a distinction between a 0.1 percent chance of a loss of 20 percent of the policyholders’ money and a 0.05 percent chance of a loss of 80 percent of the policyholders’ money?

A

Government policymakers and supervisory authorities may place higher pri- ority on avoiding insolvencies that would require a significant reduction in amounts paid to policyholders, even if such situations are much less likely to occur than insolvencies that would involve less loss to policyholders.

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24
Q

Value-at-Risk methods provide an objective scientific approach to determining capital. True or false?

A

False. Although VaR models are quantitative, they use historical data and some subjective assumptions to model to the future.

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25
Q

The international standard for determining insurance capital is a probability of ruin of 0.5 percent. True or false?

A

False. There is so far no quantitative international standard for determining in- surance capital.

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26
Q

It is necessary to measure probabilities of ruin over a year because that is the fre- quency of the insurer’s accounts. True or false?

A

False. It is often convenient to measure probabilities of ruin over a year because that is the frequency of the insurer’s accounts

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27
Q

Bounded rationality is the term used for the theory that people cannot understand what is really happening in the world. True or false?

A

False. Bounded rationality is a theory that explains that rules of thumb are devel- oped and used (to save on the costs of developing more detailed understanding) and why they often work.

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28
Q

It is important to measure model risks because they can be much larger than sto- chastic risks. True or false?

A

False. Model risks are normally larger than stochastic risks, but they cannot be measured.

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29
Q

Complex statistical models can be so impressive that they can fool some people into believing that they are precisely accurate. True or false?

A

True

30
Q

The most important element in choosing the time horizon over which to determine solvency is the question of how long it will take the supervisor to intervene effec- tively. True or false?

A

False. The elements required to determine the time horizon interact, and no single element is most important.

31
Q

It is necessary to employ an actuary to be able to interpret the results of complex insurance models. True or false?

A

False. Some experts other than actuaries can interpret the results of complex insurance models and may be more competent in specific areas.

32
Q

What are the statutory objectives of the insurance regulatory and supervisory au- thorities in your jurisdiction? Compare them with those in some other jurisdic- tions.

A

The answer is specific to the jurisdiction.

33
Q

Write out the different objectives that the shareholders in an insurance company may have that will influence the amount of capital the company has. Obtain a copy of the annual report of a listed insurer and see if there is any discussion of these objectives in it.

A

Two objectives that are logically related to shareholder interests are (1) to maxi- mize return to shareholders (including dividends and capital appreciation), which has the advantage of being direct, but depends significantly on percep- tions in the share market rather than a change in the underlying value of the company), and (2) to maximize the economic value added (the shareholders’ capital multiplied by the difference between the return on capital employed and the cost of capital), which eliminates the perception issue but may be beyond the company’s efforts, as it depends critically on competitors. Other objectives that will not necessarily maximize the shareholders’ returns are to improve the quality of service, innovate, reduce costs, increase return on capital employed, be a good corporate citizen, and so forth.

34
Q

What business activities will result in an increase in both return on capital and profits available to shareholders?

A

Almost all activities that involve an increase in revenue or a reduction in ex- penses will have a positive impact on both as long as they do not affect the amount of capital required.

35
Q

Supervisory authorities are under a legal obligation to prevent insurance compa- nies from going bankrupt. True or false?

A

False. There will always be insolvencies; the best that supervisory authorities can do is to limit insolvencies and insurers’ failure to meet policyholders’ expecta- tions.

36
Q

Maximizing the return on capital will maximize a company’s share price. True or false?

A

False. See the example, although a number of actions such as cutting costs, raising prices, or expanding the volume of business will increase both.

37
Q

People often take extra risks after a significant loss if they have a small chance to restore their previous position. True or false?

A

True.

38
Q

VaR has been criticized for failing to take account of some large risks with a small probability. True or false?

A

True.

39
Q

Companies controlled by a small group of shareholders may be reluctant to raise additional capital for fear of a change in control. True or false?

A

True.

40
Q

Economic capital is so complicated to allocate to different lines of business that companies normally use rules of thumb to do so. True or false?

A

True.

41
Q

Firms in financial distress should raise more capital as soon as possible. True or false?

A

False. Capital may be expensive and even risky to raise, and there may be alter- native ways of reducing risk such as buying reinsurance or changing investment policy.

42
Q

The pecking order theory includes the view that managers prefer not to raise equity unless share prices are high. True or false?

A

True.

43
Q

The supervisory authority does not take responsibility for the solvency of insurance companies. True or false?

A

True.

44
Q

Explain what is meant by accounting accruals.

A

One accounting principle is that income and outgo should be matched with each other in each period. Thus if an expense has been incurred within a par- ticular year, but remains unpaid at the end of the year, an expense accrual will be made at the end of the year. The same applies to expenses paid but not incurred and to income paid and not incurred or incurred but not paid.

45
Q

Which of the following calculations of solvency capital are retrospective?
a. 5 percent of the actuarial liabilities
b. 15 percent of written premiums
c. A fall of 30 percent in the market value of equities
d. An accumulation of 70 percent of premiums paid on policies in force less total
claims paid and reported to date
e. 20 percent of the provision for outstanding claims.

A

Answers a, c and e are prospective; answers b and d are retrospective.

46
Q

Actuaries can rely on the data provided to them by the company as long as the data have been certified as acceptable by the auditors. True or false?

A

False. Actuaries can normally rely on the accounting data, but they normally have to satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of the valuation data and should reconcile this with the accounting data (so inevitably they have to check both).

47
Q

ntangible assets have no realizable value and therefore cannot be accepted for prudential purposes. True or false?

A

False. Intangible assets may—on occasions—have a realizable value, and they cannot be accepted for prudential purposes because the risk of them having no present or future value is regarded as too high.

48
Q

Inadmissible assets are assets that must be deducted to remove an excessive con- centration of risk. True or false?

A

False. Inadmissible assets are those that are inadmissible for regulatory pur- poses. One reason is to remove an excessive concentration of risk; another may be that they are of low quality, meaning that they are highly likely to default or suffer significant losses.

49
Q

An actuarial analysis of surplus checks the valuation data against the accounts and serves to check the accuracy of both as well as to indicate the realism of the assumptions. True or false?

A

True.

50
Q

Fair value accounting uses asset values that try to be fair to each stakeholder. True or false?

A

False. Fair value accounting uses asset values that represent a fair value with a willing buyer and willing seller.

51
Q

A capital requirement based on the provision for outstanding claims is a retrospec- tive measure of solvency. True or false?

A

False. Claim provisions are determined prospectively. All outstanding payments will due in future, and so the measure is prospective whether the claims are dis- counted or not.

52
Q

The simplest way to avoid all double counting in a group is to subtract all invest- ments in other members of the group from the assets of each member. True or false?

A

True.

53
Q

Regulators should deduct all investments in the assets of other regulated entities to prevent a double counting of regulatory capital in the system. True or false?

A

True, although not always applied in practice.

54
Q

The purpose of solvency capital is to provide for loss experience that is in the tail of the probability distribution of losses. True or false?

A

True.

55
Q

Would it be appropriate for some companies to take steps to survive a bird flu epi- demic while others choose not to do so? Would it be acceptable for them to disclose the results of a stress test? Would this be a practical solution? (Consider whether you would buy a policy from a company advertising that it would be insolvent in such circumstances.)

A

Disclosure is probably not a practical option, so it would be fair to require all companies to cope with a common stress test.

56
Q

A stress test could be defined as the result of whether an insurer would remain solvent in the event of a catastrophic loss. True or false?

A

True.

57
Q

All insurers should remain solvent in the event of an avian influenza pandemic. True or false?

A

True, although it may not be possible or practical to ensure unless there is a catastrophe pool or guarantee that is supported by government revenue.

58
Q

Stress testing should be part of an insurer’s overall risk management strategy. True or false?

A

True.

59
Q

There must be some stress tests that are impossible to meet because it is impossible to guarantee that companies are solvent. True or false?

A

False, because one may be able to reduce benefits or take other action in the event of the stress identified. Inability to guarantee solvency arises from events that cannot be satisfactorily identified.

60
Q

There is no need to include a stress test about the failure to develop a computer system because the costs of software development are written off as intangible as- sets. True or false?

A

False. There can be consequential costs, such as loss of data or inability to handle customer transactions effectively, that arise in the absence of a functioning system; there are also the costs of having to replace the system.

61
Q

If an insurance company fails a stress test, then it should be required to make im- mediate changes to remedy the situation. True or false?

A

True, although companies may need considerable time to deal fully with the risk, particularly if the risk is new or involves long-term contracts.

62
Q

Stress testing is required because other means of determining capital may not be sufficient to cover adverse scenarios that have previously occurred and are likely to occur again. True or false?

A

True, although there are other reasons for stress testing as well.

63
Q

Comment on this stress test performed by a life insurance company. It is estimated that in a worst-case scenario, mortality from bird flu would amount to 120 percent of normal. The company’s total capital exceeds 200 percent of the expected annual death rate, so the company could survive a major influenza epidemic.

A

Mortality seems covered, but there is a need to cover potential investment market losses that arise at the same time.

64
Q

Comment on the following stress test performed by a life insurance company. The company’s assets are $100 million in local equities, $50 million in international eq- uities, $300 million in local and international government and semi-government debt, and $140 million in policy loans. The risk-based capital requirement for market risk is $30 million, which we regard as sufficient to cover extreme market risk.

A

This amount looks relatively inadequate. Share prices can easily fall 30 percent in the space of a year; and there appears to be no allowance for credit risks (which are highly correlated) or for currency risks. The policy loans are prob- ably secure, if they are not backed by linked assets. Further investigation of the company’s risk management strategy and assumptions is warranted.

65
Q

Comment on the following stress test performed by a non-life insurance company. There are two hurricanes a year, on average, for which the company paid claims of $45 million in the last year. The highest amount paid thus far is $50 million, which is $10 million less than the total claim provision plus risk-based capital.

A

This seems inadequate—based on the rule of thumb that one might expect from zero to five hurricanes—if the average is two. The historical data may be of less value because of growth in business or inflation.

66
Q

rule of thumb

A

?

67
Q

Retrospective accounts

A

?

68
Q

Inflation of capital

A

?

69
Q

Analysis

A

?

70
Q

Reverse stress testing

A

Reverse stress-tests are stress tests that require a firm to assess scenarios and circumstances that would render its business model unviable, thereby identifying potential business vulnerabilities. Reverse stress-testing starts from an outcome of business failure and identifies circumstances where this might occur. This is different to general stress and scenario testing which tests for outcomes arising from changes in circumstances.

71
Q

What is MoS

A

value of future surpluses expected spread across the projected life of policy

72
Q

What are usual risk management tools?

A

Pricing, capital, underwriting, policy conditions