Simple and Complex Voting Models Flashcards
Political analysts called ____________ attempt to explain voting behaviour by constructing theoretical models
psephologists
What are the 2 simple voting models?
- The Primacy Model
- The Recency Model
What is the Primary model?
this suggests that long-term factors, such as class, are more important than short-term factors in deciding elections
What does the primacy model suggest in electoral behaviour?
stability as opposed to volatility
What is the Recency model?
holds that voting patterns are more volatile and that processes such as embourgeoisement have led to class and partisan dealignment -believe short term faces are much more important
according to the recency model, how many voters are thought to make up their minds in the last month of the general election campaign?
10 million
What is the sociological theory?
peoples social characteristics influence their participation in politics
What factors influence people according to the sociological theory? (4)
gender, social class, ethnicity, occupation
What did Pulzer say in 1967?
“class is the basis of British politics; all else is embellishment and detail
As class mobility has increased what has been undermined ? (sociological theory)
the idea that everyone in a particular class behaved in the same way
What is the party identification theory?
this theory focuses on political socialisation and how political attitudes and behaviour are influenced via the process of growing up in settings like their families and schools
Under the party identification system, what is the psychological attachment to parties and a sense of identity referred to?
partisan alignment
At a time of partisan alignment under the party identification theory, what was voting believed to be?
a long-term manifestation of strongly held beliefs and loyalties
What change undermines the party identification model?
partisan dealignment
What did Clarke et al point out (under the party identification theory)?
that the ‘very strong’ identification levels with Labour or the Conservatives sampled in 1964 (45%) had fallen to 21% by 1979 and 13% by 2001
in the 1950’s what percentage of voters voted for either the Labour or the Conservatives?
over 90%
What percentage of voters voted for the Labour or Conservative party in the 2010 general election?
65.1%
What percentage did those who strongly identified with either party drop between 1964-2001?
45%-13%
What is the process known as that weakens party ties?
partisan dealignment
What is the rational choice theory?
This model sees voters as making considered, rational judgement on the basis of policies and issues and/or the relative attributes of the various party leaders
Under the rational choice theory how are voters likely to make their decision ? (2)
- Using retrospective judgment, based on past performance
- based on perception of how a given party might do if elected, prosperous voting
In the 1980s’s what did the the emphasis of psychological and sociological approaches shift to ?
shifted to the role of the individual in making a rational judgement acting in a calculated and deliberate way
According to Himmelweit et al 1981 what did they a rational judgement may be based on? (2)
- based on past performance of a particular administration
- related to the prospects of the individual and his/her family
What idea was advanced by Sanders in 1996 regarding the consumerist approach of rational choice theory?
that the state of the economy and the voters view of how it was impacting on their lives was very important in helping people decide how to exercise their vote
Why are those under the rational choice theory compared to consumers?
They compare products and make their decisions according to cost, quality and usefulness
psephologists recognised voting was becoming a more instrumental act in the rational choice theory, why?
people were using it as a means by which to achieve their goals
Why have studies cast in the 1980/90’s cast doubt on the rationality of choice which voters make ?
Voters may be exposed to biased presentation of news and current affairs via the media, and so then their judgements may be affected by any misleading impression that they receive
Under the rational choice model, what is issue voting commonly subdivided into?
‘spatial’ and ‘valence’
What does the spatial mode (apart of the rational choice theory ) suggest?
that parties are more likely to attract voters if they adopt a median point on the political spectrum to avoid alienating too many potential supporters
What does the valence model (apart of the rational choice theory) suggest ?
that a party’s chances of electoral success will depend upon its ability to convince voters that it can deliver on the key issues (national security, economic prosperity and law and order)
The issues that have particular salience at the time of the election will have the biggest impact on voting behaviour .
What is salience?
relevance
At the 2010 general election, what did the Conservative party and Labour party focus on to gain support from rational thinkers?
they focused on Labours handling of the economy
Labour focused on Conservatives policy to make significant cutes in public services
Why could Labours move to focus on threats posed by conservative plans to make significant cutes in public services be seen as a retrospective approach apart of the rational choice theory ?
because it sought to remind voters of their experience under the Conservative administrations of the 1980’s/90’s
in the 2010 general election what did the Conservatives and Lib-Dems focus on?
a ‘time for a change ‘
What is the Dominant ideology theory?
that the elites influence in the media and business orchestrate elections to its advantage
(Rupert Murdoch)
What theory did Dunleavy and Husbands concur with in 1985?
the Dominant Ideology theory
What did Dunleavy and Husbands 1985 agree?
that individual choices are influenced by media misrepresentation
What does the dominant ideology theory suggest happens to political communication due to media?
that newspapers and televisions distort political communication
How is political communication distorted under the dominant ideology theory ?
they determine the agenda for dealt and consciously or unconsciously provide a partial coverage of the news
Why are voters more likely to be swayed by what they hear, see and read?
as there is absence of traditional factors such as class and party loyalties
in 2005 What percentage of election news coverage was dedicated to the discussion of issues?
62%
In 2010, what percentage of bulletins analysed on the state of the economy?
74%
in the 2010 general election how many times was Gordon Brown citied in news broadcasts?
386
In 2010 what percentage of references were about David Cameron in the Conservatives’ tally?
74%
