Simple and Complex Voting Models Flashcards
Political analysts called ____________ attempt to explain voting behaviour by constructing theoretical models
psephologists
What are the 2 simple voting models?
- The Primacy Model
- The Recency Model
What is the Primary model?
this suggests that long-term factors, such as class, are more important than short-term factors in deciding elections
What does the primacy model suggest in electoral behaviour?
stability as opposed to volatility
What is the Recency model?
holds that voting patterns are more volatile and that processes such as embourgeoisement have led to class and partisan dealignment -believe short term faces are much more important
according to the recency model, how many voters are thought to make up their minds in the last month of the general election campaign?
10 million
What is the sociological theory?
peoples social characteristics influence their participation in politics
What factors influence people according to the sociological theory? (4)
gender, social class, ethnicity, occupation
What did Pulzer say in 1967?
“class is the basis of British politics; all else is embellishment and detail
As class mobility has increased what has been undermined ? (sociological theory)
the idea that everyone in a particular class behaved in the same way
What is the party identification theory?
this theory focuses on political socialisation and how political attitudes and behaviour are influenced via the process of growing up in settings like their families and schools
Under the party identification system, what is the psychological attachment to parties and a sense of identity referred to?
partisan alignment
At a time of partisan alignment under the party identification theory, what was voting believed to be?
a long-term manifestation of strongly held beliefs and loyalties
What change undermines the party identification model?
partisan dealignment
What did Clarke et al point out (under the party identification theory)?
that the ‘very strong’ identification levels with Labour or the Conservatives sampled in 1964 (45%) had fallen to 21% by 1979 and 13% by 2001
in the 1950’s what percentage of voters voted for either the Labour or the Conservatives?
over 90%
What percentage of voters voted for the Labour or Conservative party in the 2010 general election?
65.1%