Short Term Factors v Long Term Factors

Question 1

what are short term and long term factors?

Answer 1

short term factors that influence voting behaviour include perception of the leaders and party, the media, issue voting and rational choice voting

while long term factors include social class, gender, age, ethnicity and region

however, whether short term factors are now more important than long term factors in influencing the outcome of UK general elections is widely debated

Question 2

arguments to suggest long term factors are more important

Answer 2

long term factors such as class seemed to significantly influence the outcome of the 1979 election

there were hints that long term factors such as class, age and region were still highly important in both the 2010 and 2017 general elections

Question 3

arguments to suggest short term factors are more important

Answer 3

short term factors such as…

• the newspaper press in 1979
• governing competency in 2010
• perception of leaders in 2017

(arguably more important than long term factors)

Question 4

conclusion

Answer 4

therefore, it seems to be clear that while long term factors are still relatively important, short-term factors are now more important in influencing the outcome of UK general elections

Question 5

long term factors were more important in 1979

Answer 5

social class

A, B + C1 voters = 59% Conservative, 24% Labour

D, E + C2 voters = 49% Conservative, 34% Labour

Question 6

short term factors were more important in 1979

Answer 6

never a clear cut social divide between Labour and Conservatives in terms of class - social class was not that important for many voters

the media was more important - James Callaghan (Crisis? What Crisis?)

Thatcher’s personality

Question 7

long term factors were more important in 2010

Answer 7

social class

ethnicity (may also be linked to class)

gender

Question 8

short term factors were more important in 2010

Answer 8

weakest ever link between class and voting (only 38% voted for their natural class)

governing competency (2008 financial crisis)

Question 9

long term factors were more important in 2017

Answer 9

region (linked to class) - 53% of North England voted Labour, 54% of South England voted Conservative

age - 66% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour, only 19% voted Conservative, 62% of 65+ voted Conservative, only 19% voted Labour

Question 10

short term factors were more important in 2017

Answer 10

no clear cut divide in terms of class, roughly equal amounts from all class categories voted Labour and Conservative

perception of leaders….
- Corbyn was seen by many, especially the younger generation, as the leader to bring about change and greater equality

• whereas Theresa May was perceived to be uninspiring and out of touch with the people as seen in her absence at the leaders debate

although the Labour Party under Corbyn did not win the election, they did rise in popularity and cause the Conservatives under May to lose their majority, resulting in a hung parliament