Short-term Economic Fluctuations Flashcards
Expansion
is a period in which the economy is growing at a rate significantly above normal
Boom
a particularly strong and protracted expansion
Recession
a period of declining real incomes and rising unemployment, growth rate below normal
Total Unemployment
= Frictional + Structural + Cyclical Unemployment
Cyclical Unemployment
= Total - (Frictional + Structural)
= Total - Natural rate of unemployment
Okun’s Law
- The relationship between unemployment and GDP
- Negative Relationship -> Higher unemployment associated with lower production
The Basic Keynesian Model
- A theory of how recessions and expansions arrive from changes in aggregate spending
- “Too little” spending leads to a recessionary output gap (actual output < potential output)
- “Too much” spending leads to an expansionary output gap (actual output > potential output)
- Prices are fixed
Stabilization policies
Aim to reduce or eliminate output gaps
Planned Aggregate Expenditure (PAE)
Output is determined by amount people want to spend - Consumer Expenditure of Households (C) - Investment (I) - Government Purchases (G) - Net Exports (NX) aka exp. - imp. Y = C + I + G + NX
Investment (I)
Firms sometimes sell more or less than expected because of pre-set prices.
This means that actual investment (I) will exceed planned investment (I raised to p)
Consumer Expenditure (C)
- Primary determinant is disposable (or after-tax) income
The Consumption Function
C = C dash + c(Y-T)
C dash = autonomous spending (Money you always have to spend, regardless of income)
c = Marginal propensity to consume (0 < c < 1), Income - Taxes. Aka disposable income.
The Multiplier
How much our total output changes when our expenditure changes
Y = (1/1-c)A dash
- The smaller the marginal propensity to consume, the smaller the multiplier effect
The multiplier with induced imports
Y = (1/1-c+m)A dash
m
Marginal Propensity to Import
A part of our income is spent abroad. Hence, Marginal propensity to import doesn’t have to add up to 1 because that wouldn’t make sense.