Semester 1 all lectures. Flashcards
In what other ways is climate change discussed other than in science?
Art, comedy (John Oliver) and media.
Examples of sceptics and the points they make.
Paul Nuttall, previous UKIP leader claims climate scientists manipulate data for funding.
Donald Trump tweets “Global warming was created by the Chinese to make US manufacturing non-competitive”.
Nigel Lawson launch the Global Warming Policy Foundation, known for using disingenuous arguments and misleading graphs.
Climate change is not about belief or non-belief says?
Dr Helen McGregor “The science of human-induced climate change is not something on believes in but an obvious conclusion drawn from the data”
IPCC reports Unequivocal evidence for global warming – unquestionable. Very high confidence in the role of human activities.
Benefits to adapting/mitigating early.
It will be cheaper than emergency fixes.
Energy independence, rain forest preservation and clean air are other benefits.
Early recognition of carbon dioxides role in the Earths greenhouse effect.
John Tyndall - Found water vapour absorbs infrared radiation.
Svante Arrhenius - Discovered man-made greenhouse effect.
Guy Callender - Linked the rise of CO2 with temperature rise.
Keeling curve from 1960 shows rise in CO2.
Montreal protocol agreed in what year?
1987
IPCC stands for?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
IPCC founded in what year?
1988
Kyoto protocol agreed in what year?
1997
When did the US pull out of the Kyoto protocol? And what happened shortly after.
2005, the protocol then became international law for those still within it.
Copenhagen Climate summit was?
2009
2019 climate action includes what?
Striking and extinction rebellion.
The Earths natural greenhouse effect is?
Solar radiation enters and long-wave radiation is reflected out. Some of this is held in by greenhouse gases, this creates a positive energy balance.
What are the greenhouse gases?
CO2, H2O, CH4 (Methane), O3 (Tropospheric ozone), N2O (Nitrous oxide) and CFCs (Chloroflurocarbons).
PPMV stands for?
Parts Per Million by Volume.
PPBV stands for?
Parts Per Billion by Volume.
PPTV stands for?
Parts Per Trillion by Volume.
Joseph Fournier described what?
The earths natural greenhouse effect in 1824.
Mars’ greenhouse effect.
A thin atmosphere with low CO2 - Low greenhouse effect.
Venus’ greenhouse effect.
A dense atmosphere with high CO2 - High greenhouse effect.
Is there a pettern between global temperatures and sea level throughout history?
Yes, they are linked.
Name of the super continent.
Pangaea.
What did Pagaea split into first?
Laurasia and Gondwana.
Describe the Cretaceous warmth.
High sea levels, large amounts of limestone/chalk formed, possible causes are high CO2 or a low albedo due to lack of ice.
Cooling in what period after the Cretaceous warmth?
Oligocene-Miocene.
How are past temperatures reconstructed?
Ice cores and deep ocean sediments.
What period had radpid changes in CO2 levels (not ours)
Pleistocene.
Words to remember the geological timescale are what?
Carmels Often Sit Down Clumsily, Possibly Their Joints Creek, Perhaps Early Oiling May Prevent Permanent Harm.
Geological timescale.
Cambrian, Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian, Carboniferous, Permian, Triassic, Jurassic, Cretaceous, Palaeocene, Eocene, Oligocene, Miocene, Pliocene, Pleistocene and Holocene.
Geological indicator of past cold climate is?
Glacial troughs.
Geological indicator of past warm climate is?
Desiccation cracks.
Biological evidence for past warm climate is?
Limestones and corals.
Controls on long term climate change include?
The suns energy, Milankovitch cycles, Variations in the earths geomagnetic field, Geothermal variation, distribution of land and sea, composition of the atmosphere.
The quaternary is when?
Last 2.o-2.6 Ma
The quaternary is full of glacial and inter-glacial periods, what period are we in now?
The holocene is an interglacial period.
What are the three Milankovitch cycles?
Orbital eccentricity, Axial tilt and Procession of the equinoxes.
What is Orbital eccentricity?
A 100,000 year cycle.
The change in the shape of the earths orbit around the sun.
What is Axial tilt?
A 41,000 year cycle.
Change in the angle of the north pole.
What is Procession of the equinoxes?
A 23,000 year cycle.
A rotation of the pole direction.
Reason for increase in CO2 concentration.
The global human population is growing and becoming more socially complex.
Example of intentionally confusing the public.
Confusion between weather and climate by Donald Trump in tweets about a cold spell in America to deny global warming.
How do humans effect CO2 levels?
Fires, deforestation, agriculture and burning fossil fuels. These things majoring increased during the industrial revolution.
The Anthropocene is what?
A name for a possible new geological era, marked by human activity.
Three sceptic arguments are?
The industrial revolution is only 0.000004% of the Earths 4.6 billion years.
CO2 concentrations have been higher in the past, this is true but they haven’t beem higher in the last 400,000 years.
The earth has been warmer in the past, this is also true however we were in a Cenozoic cooling period until now.
What % of CO2 in the atmosphere came from the industrial revolution?
30%
What is the Hockey stick graph?
Graph showing global temperature for the last 1000 years.
Effects humans have already had on Earth.
Hockey stick graph, effected biodiversity and demise of glaciers (15% volume loss from 2000-2005).
Permafrost is melting.
Limitations to climate modelling.
CO2 may not increase at the rate we predict. Different regions of the world will react differently.
How many models have the IPCC produced for different levels of CO2 levels?
4 main ones, all showing different outcomes.
What is computational climate modelling and how can it improve?
This modelling works with complex mathematical equations based on well established physical laws defining the behavior of weather and climate.
If this physical laws are better understood and computer power increases then modelling accuracy will increase.
What is Hindcasting?
This is predicting the climate of recent years to test the accuracy of modelling.
Testing climate models by?
Hindcasting, short term predictions and running multiple models.
Where will warm fastest?
The poles.
Maslin predicts a warming of what?
1.1-6.4 degrees.
Maslin predicts a sea level rise of what?
At least half a metre, if the Greenland icesheet breaks up them 6.5 metres.
Maslin predicts a weather pattern change, what does this mean?
Extreme events like droughts likely to occur more often.
What does ENSO stand for?
El Niño Southern Oscillation.
ENSO is likely to become more frequent, what does this mean?
The extreme weather that El Nino brings with be more common.
What is a tipping point?
When a change to the Earths system results in a positive feedback loop.
What are Geomorphological hotspots?
Landforms/Landscapes that are most prone to dramatic and irreversible changes
What are ecological hotspots?
Parts of ecology that are most prone to dramatic and irreversible changes e.g. coral reefs.
Australia’s extreme weather events are?
Queensland floods (Jan 2011) Cylclone Yasi (Jan 2011) Wildfires (Feb 2009)
Africa is vulnerable to climate change, why?
It is underdeveloped, high population density, a change in rainfall levels would have a dramatic effect.
Canada has positive and negative effects to its above average warming rate, what are they?
Negative: A reduction in snow/ice has implications for ecosystems, e.g. polar bears and whales. The Tundra melting is releasing large amounts of methane.
Positive: Longer growing season and increased tourism. They are a developed country so may be able to cope better than others.
Climate change effects on the UK.
The winters will be wetter, so flooding will increase, summers will be dryer and warmer, heatwaves can be difficult to manage and deadly for the elderly and infants.
What kind of population is going to be affected most?
Large or vulnerable due to lack of water and food security that may occur.
What does sensitivity mean?
The degree of impact from change.
What does Resilience mean?
The ability to absorb disturbances.
What does adaptive capacity mean?
Ability to adjust and cope with change.
What does Vulnerability mean?
Degree of susceptibility to and inability to cope with change.
Can all countries cope the same?
No, they all have different coping ranges.
How will we know a countries coping range?
By analysing their response to climatic stresses.
What is the IPCC a partnership between?
The scientific community and the worlds governments.
What does the IPCC do?
Assesses the evidence on climate change and it impacts, gives adaptation/mitigation options.
Brings together peer review literature.
Is there a measure to the terminology used by the IPCC
Yes, e.g. High confidence = at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct.
Warming will increase extreme weather events, does the IPCC agree with this statement?
Yes. Climate change is loading the dice for negative events to happen.
Crisicisms of the IPCC are?
Some believe it is too conservative and the effects will be worse than they say, others pick out any small error and use it to dismiss the arguments made by the IPCC. Some question the relevance of the reports compared to other pressing issues in the world.
Is climate change sceptisim going away?
No, it is on the rise - this could be due to blogs and twitter becoming more popular so inaccurate facts can be spread more easily.
Drivers of climate sceptisim are?
Sceptics like Nigal Lawson spreading his opinion although it differs from the assessment of experts. Argues that phasing out fossil fuels is morally unfair to developing countries.
Climategate increased sceptisims even though there was no dishonesty found.
Many sceptic groups out there funded by fossil fuel companies.
How are scientists fighting climate change sceptisim?
Releasing official statements on their views of climate change. Interacting with the public more.
What is industry?
Primary industry is extractive.
Secondary industry is manufacturing. (some reports define industry differently and only use some parts in figures so read carefully)
What % of greenhouse gasses were produced by industry in the economic sector?
21%
There is a debate on where the responsibility lies within industry, who is this between?
Production (direct) or consumption (indirect)
How has industries perspective on climate change changed over time?
Originally most industry was united against climate change.
$2 billion spent 2000 - 2016 against climate change legislation.
Companies and NGOs now have partnerships. ENGOs put pressure on companies to be more climate friendly.
Climate change seen less of a threat but more of an opportunity.
What does BINGO stand for?
Business and Industry Non-Governmental Organisation.
How long have BINGOs been included offically in climate conferences?
Since 2000
What is a grey BINGO?
Made up of manufacturing companies, aim to cast doubt on human induced climate change. E.g. Global Climate Coalition in 1989 - Disbanded in 2002 after big names like BP left.
Reactionary BINGOs are?
Claim global warming is over exaggerated, offered $10,000 to any article that emphasized short comings of the IPCC. Favour taxing consumers over industry. E.g. American Enterprise Institute.
When did grey and reactionary BINGOs mostly dissapear?
2000
What are green BINGOs?
Aim to implement and switch to better sources of energy, help companies explore more sustainable development. Influence climate discussions. E.g. Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Shells opinion on climate change is?
They are attempting to consider the environment, making sustainability reports. Agree the problem should be managed.
ExxonMobil’s stance on climate change is what?
They invested hugely in denial of climate change but have since advocated for carbon tax.
Difference between reactive and proactive responses to climate change.
Reactive - Trying to slow change and seeing it only as a negative.
Proactive - Exploiting the opportunities and supporting the environmental regulation.
Origin of ENGOs
In the past nature was seen as something to be dominated by humans, this brought ENGOs about when concern grew in the 50s and 60s.
What does ENGO stand for?
Environmental Non-Governmental Organisation.
Shells plans to dispose of an oil platform at sea.
Greenpeace led a successful boycott against this, this method of naming and shaming is used often and works well.