RPIRM - EDGE Flashcards
Duties of the Trustee (9)
- Duty of loyalty
- Duty of care
- Duty to diversify plan assets
- Duty of impartiality
- Duty to delegate
- Duty to follow statutory constraints
- Duty to make the property productive
- Duty regarding co-trustees
- Duty to act in accordance with the trust agreement
US Safe Harbor for Shifting Responsibility for Investment Decisions to Plan Members (3)
- Have at least 3 diversified investment options covering a broad range of investment options
- Can transfer fund at least quarterly
- Sufficient information upon which to make an informed decision (investment managers, description of funds, etc.)
Disclosures that must be made upon the participants request (5)
- Description of plan expenses
- Prospectuses, financial statements and reports
- List of asset and their value within the investment
- Value of shares or units available to participants and past investment performance
- Information concerning the value of shares or units in investment alternatives held by the beneficiary
Points regarding 404(c) Protection (Responsibilities of the Fiduciary) (5)
- Fiduciary remains liable for the prudent selection and management funds to be offered
- Fiduciary remains liable for prudent investment and diversification of plan assets if plan does not offer member choices
- Multi-fund plan fiduciary not complying with 404(c) responsible for the prudent investment of plan funds
- Fiduciary responsible for prudent asset mix if changes allowed less often than quarterly
- It is transactional
Requirements for 404(c) Protection for Default Fund used with Automatic Enrollment (7)
- Must be QDIA (Plan sponsor fiduciary responsible for selecting and monitoring QDIA)
- Participant had opportunity to direct investments but did not do so
- Must notify participants at least 30 days before initial investment and each subsequent plan year
- Provide ERISA 404(c) fee and expense disclosures
- Can transfer assets at least quarterly
- QDIA fees same for everyone
- Must offer at least 3 broad range investments
QDIA Requirements (4)
- Can’t be employer stock unless part of a mutual fund
- Can transfer out within 90 days
- Must be professionally managed by regulated firm or named fiduciary
- Must be one of the following
- TDF or Target life expectancy fund
- Balanced fund
- Actively managed account similar to 2 above
- Preserve capital (120 days only)
Role of the plan administrator includes: (3)
- Managing the plan assets (following prudent principles)
- Drafting an investment policy
- Ensuring assets are managed according to the investment policy and legislation
Fiduciaries must: (3)
- Act in prudent manner
- Manage/make decisions in the best interest of plan members
- Exercise due diligence
Due diligence means making decisions based on: (2)
- Adequate information
2. Documenting decisions, motives and circumstances
Steps that demonstrate a prudent investment strategy (4)
- Developed
- Adopted
- Implemented
- Monitored
Prudent investment practices take into account (4)
- Nature of plan liabilities
- Timing of payments
- Expected future experience
- Demographics of plan members
Prudent investment principles (5)
- Prudent person rule
- Prudent delegation
- Define investment objectives
- Develop an investment policy
- Proper monitoring
When delegating functions, plan administrator… (2)
- Must do so prudently
2. Remains responsible for delegated activities (should review and monitor the delegates)
Clearly defined investment objectives allows the risks associated with the objectives (2)
- To be understood
2. To be actively managed
Investment objectives should be consistent with the plan’s (4)
- Retirement income objectives
- Liabilities
- Demographics
- Ability to accommodate investment volatility
Investment objectives should reflect (2)
- Relevant legal provisions
2. Relevant investment principles regarding asset allocation, diversification and liquidity
Investment policy/ SIP&P should (6)
- Reflect plan’s investment objectives
- Specify investment principles, strategic asset allocation, performance objectives, etc.
- Life investment restrictions
- Identify the asset allocation
- Identify the plan’s expected returns
- Address the nature and extent of anticipated risk
When monitoring, administrator should (5)
- Review investment objectives and risk tolerances
- Ensure adequate investment procedures are in place
- Review key investment decisions
- Ensure service providers are monitored and measured
- Review plan’s investment performance
Purpose of pension governance (3)
- Structure / process for effective administration
- Ensure fiduciary compliance
- Ensure participants receive benefits according to plan terms and understand their rights/responsibilities
An effective pension governance system incorporates (3)
- Framework for defining duties
- All pension aspects (management, communication, funding)
- Oversight to protect plan members
Advantages of good governance (6)
- Meet fiduciary requirements
- Minimize risks and inefficiencies
- Promote accurate and timely delivery of benefits
- Consistent benefits administration
- Provides control mechanisms to facilitate decision making, efficient practices, accountability and review
- Facilitates positive plan performance
Fiduciary must (5)
- Treat members impartially
- Act with care, skill and diligence of a prudent person
- Interpret plan terms fairly
- Prevent personal conflict of interest
- Ensure members receive benefits
Risk management governance framework should (6)
- Identify risks
- Assess / prioritize risks
- Responsibilities for managing risk
- Define acceptable risks
- Design response to mitigate
- Monitor
Participant Communications Should (3)
- Outline process for asking and raising questions
- Communicate how important decisions are made
- Information about plan’s risks, benefits, options and participants responsibilities
Investment Behavior DC Sponsors are Likely to See Among the Norm (4)
- Correlated equity allocation decisions
- High utilization in hybrid allocations
- Static asset allocations
- Tax inefficiencies
Investment Behavior DC Sponsors are Likely to See among the Minority (4)
- Trade too much
- Invest too much in company stock
- Insufficiently diversified
- Invest too much or not enough in equities
Likely to see among the Norm Higher Equity Allocations Correlated with (12)
- Positive stock market performance
- Younger age
- Higher education
- Higher income
- Longer investment horizons
- Higher risk tolerance
- Higher number of investment choices
- Not participating in a DC plan
- Good health
- Married
- Non-union
- Male
Theory to understand causes of irrational investment behavior is called
Prospect Theory (argues investors follow an investment process)
Prospect Theory Investment Process
Phase 1 (Framing and Editing): Decision affected by the way the problem is presented and the investors habits and expectations
Phase 2 (Evaluation): Decision affected by investor’s risk aversion
Party Responsible for Oversight of DC Plan Investments
- For DC, if ee has no control over how assets are invested, er has full responsibility
- For DC, if ee has choices, er bears responsibility of selecting investment funds and making sure find line-up is diverse and competitive (can reduce fiduciary liability through 404(c))
Items DC Sponsors should Provide Participants (3)
- An investment framework
- Guidance
- A range of investment options
To Increase Tax Inefficiency, DC Sponsors should Recommend Participants to… (2)
- Invest bonds in pre-tax fund
2. Invest equities in after-tax fund
Reasons why DC Governance is more complicated than DB Governance (3)
- DC plans are participant-directed
- Participants have unique financial circumstances
- Participants have different investment abilities
DC Sponsors should Facilitate Best-Practice (3)
- Skills
- Resources
- Processes
Items DC Sponsors should Review (5)
- Investment performance
- Program’s effectiveness reaching HR goals
- Program’s likelihood of reaching targeted replacement ratios
- Asset allocations selected by participants
- Program’s legal compliance
DC Governance should Address 3 common DC Structural flaws
- Participant lack of investment skills
- Providing a sub-optimal investment line-up
- Not offering annuities
Due to 3 common flaws, DC Fiduciaries should consider the following principles (4)
- Participants’ needs and circumstances
- Correct framing on retirement adequacy
- Protect participants from themselves
- Provide simple but not simplistic solutions
Items designed to address structural flaws 1 and 2 (5)
- Fewer and lower cost investment options
- Automatic enrollment
- Auto-escalation contribution rates
- Professionally managed target-date funds
- Advice and financial education
Key Attributes to a Successful DC Plan (9)
- Empowerment within the scope of ability
- Design-making support
- Comprehensive risk profiling
- Efficient investment building blocks
- Offer options with protection
- Right amount of fund choice
- Cost controlled
- Easy-to-understand reporting against objectives
- Well-defined governance aligned with participant needs
Building blocks DC Plan investment structure (3)
Tier 1 funds (Asset allocation funds): Professionally managed TDF and lifestyle funds
Tier 2 funds (Core funds): Participant managed funds
Tier 3 funds (Specialty funds): Participant managed
Advantage of offering Tier 1 funds
Asset allocation decision is outsourced
Disadvantage of offering Tier 1 funds
May not reflect participant’s unique risk profile
Advantages of offering Tier 2 funds (2)
- Exposed to major asset classes
2. Can develop desired risk / return profile
Should only offer actively managed Tier 2 funds if (2)
- Believe markets are inefficient
2. Sponsor can select managers with skill
Advantage of offering Tier 3 funds
Attractive to highly compensated and sophisticated participants
Items fiduciaries should consider when offering / evaluating TDF (5)
- Potential impact on decisions / strategy
- Capacity constraints
- Manager invested in fund?
- Fund’s principle strategies / objectives and risks
- Fees
Target-Date Glide Path Characteristics affecting Risk / Reward (4)
- Initial and ultimate asset allocations
- Slope (market-timing risk)
- To vs. Through
- Sub-asset classes (type, weight, active/passive)
Glide Path Balances the Following Risks (2)
- Longevity (higher equity allocation)
2. Market (higher fixed income allocation)
Comparing TDF performance (2)
- Differentiate based on risk exposures
2. Apply goals-based framework
ERISA DC Fiduciaries responsible for (related to services)
Ensuring services DC plan receives are charged reasonable fees and that services are necessary
Best-practice Considerations for ERISA DC Fiduciaries (4)
- Develop inventory of fees paid by the plan
- Benchmark fees
- Review service agreements and contracts for appropriate scope and transparency
- Assess record keeper services compared to other vendors
Plan Fiduciary Responsibilities (2)
- Act in best interest of participants (Prudence + Care)
2. Monitor Delegates
Services used to help with plan investments (2)
- Investment management
2. Investment consulting
Role of an independent investment consultant (5)
- Establish overall investment policies
- Write investment policy statements
- Benchmark investment results
- Ensure all appropriate asset classes are represented
- Ensure plan fiduciaries are discharging duties appropriately
The investment management process (3 steps)
- Develop SIPP
- Implement
- Monitor
DB SIPP should address (6)
- Investment objectives
- Investment specifics
- Manager selection/termination
- Performance measurement (expected return, monitoring)
- Risks (tolerance, management, measurement)
- Governance
Required Considerations when Setting the DB Investment Policy (3)
- Liabilities
- Funded Status
- Factors affecting funding and solvency
Member-Directed DC Plan’s SIPP should Include / Address (7)
- Investment Philosophy
- Permitted asset classes
- Default Investment options
- Monitoring process
- Manager selection / termination
- Fees / expenses
- Investment communications to participants
Types of Risks Addressed in SIPP (3)
- Asset based
- Liability based
- Asset-Liability-based
Example of Liability-Based Risk
Longevity
Example of Asset-Liability Risk
Solvency
Example of Assets Risks (17)
- Active management
- Alternative asset
- Asset concentration
- Compliance
- Counterparty
- Country
- Currency
- Derivative
- Index-tracking
- Inflation
- Interest rate
- Investment style
- Leverage
- Liquidity
- Market
- Operational
- Securities lending
Examples of outcomes investment categories (4)
- Absolute return
- Yield-generating assets
- Low volatility
- Low correlation with rest of fund
Examples of traditional investment categories (2)
- Style
2. Geography
Sponsor’s Fiduciary Responsibility: Ensure Investment Decisions Process (3)
- Sound
- Systematic
- Informed
Recommended first step in managers selection process is to consider (5)
- Number of managers
- Type (Specialty / Balanced)
- Style
- Primary approach (Fundamental / Quantitative)
- Active / Passive management
Factors affecting the manager selection (7)
- Cost
- Oversight resources
- Diversification
- Benchmark volatility
- Varying expertise between managers
- Ability to add value by switching asset classes
- Market efficiency of different asset classes
Desired attributes of the manager (8)
- Expertise in a specific asset class
- An established investment team
- Minimum level of assets under management
- No significant issues involving the overall organization
- Low portfolio turnover
- Above median performance over the past 5 years
- Below median performance volatility over the past 5 years
- Reasonable fees
Plan size affects the following items (4)
- Risk distribution
- Manager selection
- How funds will be invested (asset classes, type of account)
- Economies of scale
Plan size and its impact on risk (2 small, 2 large)
Small plans:
- Less asset class diversification
- Use of separate accounts leads toward active management concentration risk
Large plans:
- Lack of high-quality managers for needed asset classes
- Balancing active management risk and avoiding low-quality managers
Plan size and use of separate and commingled fund
Large plans: Separate accounts
Small plans: Commingled accounts
Disadvantages of active management concentration (2)
- Potentially lower returns
2. Diverge from peer groups
Advantages of separate accounts (5)
- Access and fee scale to sophisticated managers
- Can customize plan
- Can customize tracking error targets
- Specify risk parameters
- Can develop performance statistics
Disadvantages of customized accounts (2)
- Require significant oversight
2. Implementation risks
Advantages of commingled accounts (5)
- Many exist
- Provide investment solutions
- Can develop performance statistics
- Facilitates cost-effective allocations
- Access to high-quality managers
Disadvantages of commingled accounts (2)
- Active management risk if only one manager
2. Must monitor the manager’s performance, risk and style consistency
Typical investment cost (4)
- Investment management
- Custodial
- Transaction costs
- Administration
Small Plans and Costs
Need economies of scale through commingling
Performance measurement should be carried out in the context of (3)
- Plan’s current value
- Current and expected contribution levels
- Anticipated liabilities or expenditure requirements
Advantages of performance evaluation (3)
- Enhances the effectiveness of a fund’s investment policy
- Identifies the program’s strengths and weaknesses
- Provides trustees evidence program is being conducted appropriately
Types of Performance Evaluations (2)
- Comparative performance
2. Benchmark-based
Properties of a valid benchmark (7)
- Unambiguous
- Investable
- Measurable
- Appropriate
- Reflective of current investment options
- Specified in advance
- Owned
Types of benchmark (7)
- Absolute
- Manager universe (median manager or fund)
- Broad market indexes (TSX, S&P500)
- Style indexes (small cap, large cap)
- Factor-model-based benchmark
- Returns-based benchmarks
- Custom security-based benchmark
Median of Manager Universe as Benchmark not Valid Because (4)
- Can’t be specified in advance
- Not investable
- Typically Ambiguous
- Subject to survivor bias
Steps to building custom security-based benchmarks (5)
- Identify aspects of the manager’s investment process
- Select securities consistent with that process
- Devise a weighting scheme for the benchmark securities, including cash position
- Review preliminary benchmark and make modifications
- Rebalance benchmark on a predetermined schedule
Criteria used to test whether a benchmark is good or bad (6)
- Should be minimal systematic biases relative to the account over time
- Tracking error should be minimal
- Account’s exposure to systematic sources of risk should be similar to benchmark over time
- Manager’s account should have high coverage relative to benchmark
- The benchmark’s turnover should not be excessive
- The manager should not be expected to hold largely positive active positions for actively managed long-only accounts
Methods of measuring investment returns (3)
- Money-weighted rate of return (IRR)
- Time-weighted rate of return
- Linked internal rate of return
Advantage of IRR
Account only valued at the beginning and end of the evaluation period
Disadvantages of IRR (2)
- R can’t be solved directly
2. Sensitive to the size and timing of external cash flows while TWR is not
Advantages of TWR (2)
- Not sensitive to the size and timing of external cash flows
- Accurately reflects how an investor would have fared over the period
Disadvantage of TWR
Account valued every time an external cash flow occurs (more expensive and more error prone)
TWR vs. MWR
MWR more appropriate if manager maintains control over the timing and amount of cash flows
Stock’s risk (definition)
Return variance and covariance with other stock returns in the portfolio
Tracking error (definition)
Standard deviation of the difference between the portfolio’s return and the benchmark
Information ratio (definition)
Portfolio’s average active return divided by its tracking error
Sharpe ratio
Excess return of the portfolio divided by its volatility
Efficient portfolio (definition)
Portfolio with the highest expected return for a target level of risk. Highest information ratio possible given the risk budget. All risks are compensated
Active management in an EPM context
Overweighting attractive stocks and underweighting unattractive stocks relative to benchmark weights
Four major steps in the EPM investment process
- Forecasting returns, risks and transaction costs
- Constructing efficient portfolios
- Trading stocks efficiently
- Evaluating results and updating the process
Characteristics of a well-structured investment process (6)
- Sound economic logic
- Diverse information sources
- Careful empirical analysis
- Reliable forecasts
- Effective implantation
- Easy to explain
EPM Approaches (2)
- Traditional
2. Quantitative
Traditional Approach
Construct an in-depth stock-specific analysis (talk to senior management, study financial statements, conduct competitive analysis)
Advantages of the traditional approach
More in depth knowledge than quantitative approach:
- Cope with data errors
- Cope with company’s structural changes
- Understand data sources
- Incorporate qualitative factors
Disadvantages of the traditional approach (5)
- Relies heavily on analyst judgement
- Costly
- Difficult to evaluate
- Typically relies on only the most distinctive factors
- Fewer and larger bets taken
Quantitative approach
Use statistical models to forecast each stock’s return, risk and cost of trading
Advantages of the quantitative approach (8)
- Transparent
- Minimizes subjective bias
- Cost effective
- Model can be tested historically
- Can uncover opportunities more quickly and efficiently than traditional approach
- Spreads risk over many companies
- Every specified factor considered before reaching a conclusion
- Model is stochastic
Disadvantages of the quantitative approach (3)
- Subject to specification errors
- Overfitting
- Model can be misleading
Process for forecasting returns (quantitative approach) (4 steps)
- Identify signals
- Test the effectiveness of each signal
- Determine signal weights
- Blend output with market equilibrium
Forecasting risk
- Consider the frequency of data to use
- The more observations the better
- Consider giving more weight to recent observations
Methods of forecasting transaction costs (2)
- Examine the complete record
2. Use own trades to develop a model
Transaction costs have two components (2)
- Implicit costs
2. Explicit costs
Approach to constructing an efficient portfolio (2)
- Rule-based system
2. Portfolio optimization
Rule-based system
- Rank stocks based on a few key risk factors
- Invests heavily in the highest-ranked stocks while keeping the portfolio’s total weight close to the benchmark
Advantage of rule-based system
Portfolio is neutral with respect to identified risk factors while overweighting attractive stocks and underweighting unattractive stocks
Disadvantages of rule-based system (2)
- Not very efficient
2. Can’t explicitly consider trading costs
Advantages of the portfolio optimization approach (3)
- Expected returns and risk/cost/constraints better balanced
- Facilitates portfolio customization
- Only requires use of forecasts
Portfolio optimization caveat
Need to make sure model’s inputs are reliable
Evaluating results and updating the process
- Compare actual results against expected
- Determine sources of under and over performance
Advantages of Alternative Investments (Private Equity or Hedge Fund) (3)
- Lower volatility
- Higher absolute and risk-adjusted returns
- Varied correlations
Risks Particularly Unique to Alternative Investments (9)
- Market
- Illiquidity
- Valuation
- Operational
- Regulatory Obligations (Lack of)
- Strategy Risk
- Counterparty Risk
- Sub-Advisor Risk
- Unstable / Unreliable Vendor
Common Characteristics of Illiquid Investments (Private Equity) (5)
- Return Premium (3%+)
- High dispersion of returns
- Long time horizon before profits (10+ years)
- Upfront commitment
- Potential good fit for pensions
Hedge Funds designed to look for (2)
- Arbitrage opportunities
2. Pricing Inefficiencies
Characteristics of hedge funds (8)
- Purest form of active management
- Loosely Regulated
- Lack of Transparency
- Performance fees paid
- Short lived
- Illiquid
- May experience capacity constraints
- Unconstrained with regard to short selling, leverage, instruments, strategies
Typical fund fee structure of hedge funds
Fixed management fee + Performance fee subject to high water mark
Main advantage of hedge funds
Provide opportunity to both enhance expected returns and reduce risk
Short selling (definition)
- Borrow then sell asset and repurchase it later
- Sell high and buy low (hedge against another asset, exploit relative price movements)
Hedge fund strategies (4)
- Relative value
- Event driven
- Equity long/short
- Tactical trading
Private Equity Investment (definition)
Any ownership interest not publicly traded, except for real estate
Advantages of private equity (5)
- Efficient market hypothesis does not apply (high returns)
- Illiquid market may reduce purchase price
- Long-term focus
- Have more company control
- Can decide when to exit investment
Disadvantages of private equity (2)
- Lack of transparency makes analysis difficult
2. Market illiquid/difficult to sell
Private equity investment strategies include (4)
- Buying start-ups
- Restructuring large company
- Repositioning large company
- Innovation
Investment Characteristics of Infrastructure (4)
- Defensive - less risk (higher barrier to entry, monopoly-like, less sensitive to business cycle, inflation protection)
- Long operational life
- High operating margins
- Reliable long term cash flow
Potential advantages of Infrastructure as a pension investment (3)
- Enhanced diversification
- Match liability profile with cash flows
- Higher risk/return optimization
Infrastructure’s similarities/differences with other asset classes
Fixed income (Long-term predictable cashflow/Inflation hedge, low interest rate risk
Real estate (Physical Asset/Barrier to entry, predictable cash flow)
Private Equity (Management control/Longer time horizon)
Equities (Equity ownership/Fewer securitization)
Infrastructure risks (6)
- Patronage / Demand
- Regulatory
- Contractual / Credit
- Operational / Constrution
- Financing / Inflation
- Liquidity
Essential Traits Needed for an Infrastructure Investment Team (6)
- In-depth sector knowledge
- Transaction capabilities
- Operational experience
- Access to Quality deal flow
- Ability to select best opportunities
- Apply strict governance
Risks with emerging market investments (8)
- Lack of reliable information
- Currency risk
- Poor legal infrastructure (may permit insider trading)
- Political instability
- Different accounting systems
- Transaction costs
- Shareholder rights
- Ability to recover investment
Major sources of fixed income risk (10)
- Interest rate risk
- Yield curve risk
- Sector risk
- Credit risk
- Volatility risk
- Prepayment risk
- Currency risk
- Security-Specific risk
- Reinvestment risk
- Liquidity risk
Measurement typically used to measure interest rate risk exposure
Duration
Ways to construct portfolios with the same duration but different exposures to yield curve risk (3)
- Bulleted
- Barbelled
- Laddered
Measurement typically used to measure yield curve risk exposure
Key-Rate Duration (Portfolio’s duration that comes from cash flows in each part of the yield curve)
Measurement typically used to measure sector risk exposure
Contribution to duration (MV weighted average duration of sector holdings x MV weight holdings in sector)
Credit risk usually defined by…
Nationally recognized rating organization
Volatility risk
Risk bond value impacted by how much interest rates move in either direction
Arises when instrument has asymmetric payoffs
Types of risk exposures that arise when investing in embedded options
- Gamma exposure
2. Vega risk
Gamma exposure
- Market value impact from experiencing a change in interest rates
- If you are long volatility then you gain from market movement
- Convexity used to quantify gamma exposure
Vega risk
- Risk due to a change in the market’s expectation of future volatility of interest rates
- Volatility duration is used to quantify vega risk
Volatility duration
Percentage change in bond price due to a 1% change in expected future (or implied) volatility
Prepayment risk
- Defined as the return volatility arising from the over or underestimation of actual prepayment rates
- Prepayment duration used to quantify prepayment risk
Prepayment duration
-Percentage change in price due to a 10% increase in projected prepayment rates
Currency risk
Can mitigate/eliminate risk using currency hedging techniques such as currency forward contracts
Active management strategies…
Change the risk exposure of the portfolio to maximize return given a level of risk or minimize risk given a level of return
Most widely used active management fixed income strategies (6)
- Duration timing
- Yield Curve positioning
- Sector allocation
- Security selection
- Country allocation
- Currency allocation
Combining active strategies using risk budgeting…
Need to allocate risk efficiently across investment idea and strategies
Risk budgeting process/steps used to maximize return per budgeted level of risk (7)
- Determine benchmark
- Determine investment constraints
- Determine permissible active strategies
- Determine maximum tracking error allowed
- Estimate information ratio
- Determine the target excess return or tracking error
- Determine the optimal amount of risk to each strategy
Ready to determine appropriate allocation once you determine… (5)
- What strategies can be used
- How much could be allocated to each strategy
- How good you are at generating returns in each strategy
- How you expect them to move together
- How much risk or return looking to achieve
Successful investing (5)
- Reposition risk to create return
- Maximize return per unit of risk
- Diversify
- Avoid concentrated risks
- Understand sources of risk
Central them of MPT
Look at the expected return of each investment in relation to the impact that it has on the risk of the overall portfolio
Risk and return estimates (characteristics)
- Estimating expected returns problematic
2. Estimating volatility is more complex but more easily quantified
Implied views (other name)
Hurdle Rates
Repositioning risk allocations…
- Improves the portfolio’s expected return
2. Assets that reduce risk are less expensive on budget
Traditional portfolio immunization strategy
Requires prior specification of expected excess return for all of the assets
Alternative technique based on MPT to optimize a portfolio’s return to risk ratio
- Analyse the risk margins to decide whether to sell/purchase asset
- Portfolio optimal when expected excess return per marginal contribution is the same for all assets in the portfolio
Advantages of the alternative technique (2)
- Can calculate excess return on one asset and back out the implied views on all of the others
- Analysis based on more risk statistics than expected return statistics
Active vs management decision
Directed by belief about the EMH
EMH
- Active manager can’t outperform index
- No arbitrage opportunities
- Market reflects all information
- Stock price movement is random
- Stock prices unpredictable apart from a long-term trend
EMH supported historically by (2)
- Net of expenses, most active funds do not outperform index
- Data does not support strong performance persistence
Advantages of passive investing (4)
- Low management fees
- No active management risk
- Low transaction costs
- Returns close to benchmark
Disadvantages of passive investing (3)
- Most require high dollar minimums
- No opportunity to reduce risk relative to benchmark
- Return typically less than benchmark by the amount of management fees
ERM steps of evaluating a pension plan’s risk (5)
- Identify the stakeholders
- Identify risk
- Quantify risk
- Separate risk
- Manage risk
Things to consider when managing pension assets relative to the firm’s economic strength (4)
- Corporate risk in addition to pension risk must be considered
- Must coordinate pension assets with corporate strength to minimize business interference
- Must reflect liabilities to address surplus volatility
- Must coordinate pension assets, liabilities and corporate strength to maximize firms expected life
Risks to participant and shareholder by funding strategies (3 strategies)
- Pay as you go:
- P: Will company be around to pay benefit
- S: Future shareholder must pay benefits - Balanced asset allocation:
- P: Will the company be able to make up any future shortfall
- S: Shortfall/Surplus addressed bu future shareholder - ALM asset allocation:
- P: Risk is very small
- S: Large up-front contribution and minimal possibility of surplus
General framework to follow when determining an asset allocation (4 steps)
- Identify stakeholders and their needs
- Identify risks
- Quantify risk
- Separate and manage risk
Three dimensions to risk management
- Panning
- Budgeting
- Monitoring
Risk management wants to (3)
- Identify risk exposure
- Measure risk exposures
- Report risk exposures to senior management
Measures of risk (2)
- VaR
2. Tracking error
Risk plan should include/address the following items (6)
- Set expected return and volatility goals
- Define points of success and failure
- Determine how risk capital will be used to meet objectives
- Determine events that are disappointing vs life threatening
- Identify critical dependencies
- Involve senior leadership in the planning process
Advantages of involving senior leadership in the risk plan (3)
- Risk and return issues are addressed, understood and communicated
- Can better describe context for risk and financial capital allocations
- Better understand risks needed to generate profits
Risk budget
- Amount of risk allocated toward a targeted tracking error
- Budget carried out through the asset allocation
- Each risk allocation should have a corresponding return expectation
Ideal amount of risk
Within risk tolerance
Advantages of risk monitoring (2)
- Ensures transactions are authorized and within risk tolerance
- Can distinguish material deviations from target that need to be addressed
Recommended approach to managing risk
Create an independent risk management unit (RMU)
Objectives of RMU (9)
- Enable stakeholders to better understand and control risk
- Develop a process to identify and address risks
- Set and implement the risk agenda and initiatives
- Identify/report unusual events to management
- Start comprehensive risk-related discussions
- Be a focal point where risk topics are identified and discussed
- Ensure transactions are within risk tolerance
- Develop risk measurement and performance attribution tools
- Develop an inventory of risk data
Objectives of performance management tools (4)
- Compare manager against benchmark
- Compare manager against peer group
- Confirm whether returns compensate enough for the risk taken
- Create process to identify superior managers
Commonly used performance tools (5)
- The Green zone approach
- Attribution of returns
- Sharpe and Information ratios
- Alpha vs. Benchmark
- Alpha vs. peer group
Green zone tool
- Identify excess returns statistically different from targeted excess returns
- Compare actual tracking error against targeted tracking
- Form policies for 1 and 2
- Compile report with the results (Green is within defined expectation, yellow, red)
Attribution of returns tool
- Measures the quality of returns
- Determines the sources of the return
Sharpe ratio
- Portfolio’s excess return / portfolio’s standard deviation
Information ratio
- Portfolio’s excess return / Portfolio’s tracking error
Advantages of the Sharpe and Information ratio (3)
- Can compare investment managers within the same peer group
- Can test whether return compensated enough for risk taken
- Can use at the portfolio level and individual sector/country level
Disadvantages of the Sharpe and Information ratio (2)
- May require data that is not available
2. Results may not be relevant if use actual vs. forecasted risk
Alpha vs. the Benchmark tool
- Regress portfolio’s excess return against the benchmark’s excess return
- Tool’s outputs (intercept + slope)
- Apply confidence tests to regression outputs (to test if alpha is statistically significant)
Advantages of the alpha vs. benchmark tool (4)
- Can test whether excess return is skill or chance
- Can distinguish between excess returns due to leverage vs. skill
- Easy to calculate
- Beta shows whether manager used underweighting or overweighting
Disadvantages of the alpha vs. benchmark tool (1)
- May not have enough data points to determine alpha’s statistical significance
Alpha vs. peer group tool
- Regress portfolio’s excess return against the excess return of the manager’s peer group
Advantages and disadvantages of the alpha vs. peer group tool (4+3)
- Can test whether excess return is skill or chance
- Can distinguish between excess returns due to leverage vs. skill
- Easy to calculate
- Beta shows whether manager used underweighting or overweighting
- May not have enough data points to determine alpha’s statistical significance
- Peer group subject to survivorship bias
- Easier for peer group managers with small portfolios to produce excess returns
Recommended framework: Three tenets
- Objective analysis
- Unbiased guidance
- Well understood outcome
Framework is applied in 5 key work steps
- Define the objective
- Define universe of alternative strategies
- Analyze the alternatives
- Implement
- Monitor
Advantages of having an established strategy/being proactive (3)
- Can act on favorable market conditions
- Implementation lead time
- Increasing challenges
Common De-risking strategies (4 types)
- Plan design (Close, Freeze, Reduce benefits)
- Financial (Addl contrib., lump sum, Borrow-to-fund)
- Investment (LDI, Dynamic Asset allocation)
- Insurance (Buy-in, Buy-out, Longevity insurance)
Advantages of de-risking (5)
- Minimized pension volatility (Balance-sheet + Contrib)
- Secures benefits for participants
- Increase financial flexbility
- Increases shareholder value
- Can focus on core business
Risk defined from an asset-liability perspective can be defined as (3)
- Contribution volatility
- Funding surplus volatility
- Probability of avoidance of a large decrease in funded status
Problem with Asset Only Perspective
If plan assets outperformed policy benchmark al was well, even if funded status deteriorated
LDI
- Maximize return while reducing interest rate risk
- Strategy tailored to specific plan needs
- Principal measure is the plan’s funded status
- Investment framework not restricted to just bonds
Three key concepts of LDI management (3)
- Liability duration must be hedged or partially hedged by the assets
- Asset duration can come from either securities
- Excess return comes at the cost of increased liability tracking
LDI elements
- Marked-to-market liabilities are focus of investing
- Appropriate benchmark is plan liabilities
- Strategy coordinates assets and liabilities
- Strategies are tailored to specific plan needs including interest rate sensitivity, plan design features, etc.
- LDI seeks alpha and risk mitigation strategies custom tailored to the sponsor’s objectives
LDI Checklist (8)
- Determine objectives
- Determine pan liability duration
- Determine desired fixed income allocation
- Determine portfolio duration
- Determine additional duration needed
- Determined degree of comfort with derivatives
- Determine appetite for active management
- Monitor LDI strategy against liability benchmark
Succesful LDI considerations (4)
- What risks should be hedged
- Degree of deviation from immunization
- Portfolio’s expected outcome
- How will fiduciaries handle costs, leverage, monitoring, etc.
Limitations of liability-driven investing (2)
- Higher expected long-term return is sacrificed for lower risk
- Availability of certain types of investments may be limited
Myths About Liability-Driven Investing (10)
- LDI always means reducing risk
- IRR is uncompensated risk so reduce as much as possible
- LDI can completely eliminate interest rate risk
- Implement LDI if believe IR will rise
- LDI reduces equity exposure which increases plan costs
- Reducing equity exposure will reduce EROA so shouldn’t reduce equity exposure
- Getting a free LDI strategy from a fixed income manager is wise
- IRR can be hedged by matching the timing of future benefit cash flows and fixed income exposure
- A good fixed income manager means a good fixed income manager for a LDI strategy just by adding swaps
- LDI isn’t worth the trouble
Should consider the following when determining risk tolerance (3)
- Relative size of company’s worldwide pensions to sponsor’s size
- Credit rating/strength of sponsor
- Plan’s funded status
Process for developing an optimal portfolio in an asset-liability context (5)
- Define risk tolerance/preferences
- Create financial inputs
- Generate stochastic scenarios
- Analyze multiple asset allocations
- Choose portfolio within risk tolerance with highest expected return
Two ways to mitigate funded status volatility
- Asset diversification
2. Duration management
Types of ALM strategies (2)
- Dedication
2. Immunization
Ways to increase matching if liability duration longer than asset duration (4)
- Add long-term bonds
- Replace short-term bonds with long-term bonds
- Increase inflation-linked assets
- Use fixed income derivatives (Futures, Forwards, Swaps)
Derivatives meet the needs of three groups of people
- Those who wish to discover information
- Those who wish to speculate
- Those who wish to hedge
Advantage of derivatives
Don’t have to sell existing equity or bond positions to achieve desired duration
Disadvantage of derivatives (2)
- Need sufficient liquidity to fund initial and variation margin requirements
- Introduces new sources of risk (counterparty, liquidity, valuation, etc.)
Types of fixed income options include (3)
- Call
- Convertible bonds
- Swaps
Interest rate swap
- Periodic exchange of cash flows
- Have a fixed leg and a floating leg
- Settlement = Annual rate difference x Notional Principal x Fraction of the year
- Swap duration = difference of duration of fixed rate bond and the duration of the floating-rate bond
- Swap duration for fixed-rate receiver is positive
- The same swap has a negative duration for the counterparty
Swaption
- Have a right but not the obligation to enter an underlying swap
- Pay an upfront premium
- Can set the exercise date to be plan’s next measurement date
- A purchased receiver swaption provides provides protection against yield below strike level
Choices swaption receiver has on exercise date
- Out of the money : Let option expire
2. In the money: Take delivery and become receiver of an above market swap OR close out swap and collect FV
Swaption collar
- Plan buys one swaption and sells another (buy a fixed rate receiver, sell a floating rate payer)
- Reduces or eliminates up-front expense
- Receiver option increases in value if rates drop below strike level
- Payer option decreases in value if rates increases above strike level
Disadvantage of large fixed income allocation
Lower expected returns
Advantage of swaps and swaptions (2)
- Minimizes volatility without changing the asset allocation
- May have higher return than large fixed income strategy
Caveats regarding a risk management strategy involving interest rate derivatives (3)
- Significant learning curve
- Should consider underhedge vs. overhedge
- Model risk
Duration
- Modified duration if the first derivative of the bond with respect to a change in interest rate
- Second derivative is convexity
What drives the price component of a bond ?
Change in price = Change in yield X Duration X -1
Convexity typically thought of as a percentage measure
Price gain from convexity = 0.5 X Convexity X Changei n DR
Key Rate Duration
Duration at key points on yield curve
Advantages of Key Rate Duration over Effective Duration (2)
- Parallel shifts are rare
2. Effective duration doesn’t properly capture risk exposure
Additional risk management tools (2)
- Buy-out
2. Buy-in
Advantages of buy-out (2)
- Exports all risks for covered obligation
2. Reduces expense volatility
Disadvantages of buy-out (2)
- May be more expensive than immunization
2. Triggers settlement accounting
Advantages of buy-in (4)
- Avoids settlement accounting
- Exports most of the covered obligation’s risks
- Have buy-out option at no additional cost
- Reduces expense volatility
Disadvantages of buy-in (2)
- May be more expensive than immunization
2. Sponsor responsible for making payments
Long position
Owning the asset
Short position
Owing the asset
When to take the long position
Expect asset value to increase
When to take the short position
Expect asset value to decrease
When to use put option vs. short strategy
Put: Unsure whether security will decrease
Short: Confident security will decrease
Advantage of Forwards
Customized
Disadvantages of Forward (2)
- Lack of liquidity
2. Counterparty risk
Advantages of Futures (3)
- Liquid
- Minimal counterparty risk
- Can be used to increase/decrease duration
Approaches used to preserve capital (3)
- Cash equivalents
- Sell index future
- Put option
Asset/strategies negatively correlated with equities (3)
- Commodities
- Short sales
- Selling index futures
Types of derivatives (2)
- Exchange traded derivatives
2. Non-standard over-the-counter derivatives
Fiduciary prudence regarding investment derivative management
- Good documentation (reason for decisions, factors considered)
- Minimize risk of large losses
Derivative SIP&P/IPS documentation expectations (2)
- Authorized derivative users
2. List allowable categories, proportion of assets invested in derivatives, asset amount used for collateral
Types of derivative risks (5)
- Market
- Liquidity
- Basis
- Counterparty
- Operations and system
Derivative risk management practices document expectations (9)
- Uses and strategies
- Investment objectives
- Funds risk tolerance
- Nature of plan’s liabilities
- Sponsor’s funding policy
- Plan’s funded status
- Sponsor’s ability to fund the plan
- List independent controls
- Risk management considerations
Non-standard OTC risk mitigation best practices (4)
- Price via independent professional
- Netting agreements
- Initial and on-going credit rating
- Start with standardized documentation
Risk mitigation best practices expectations applicable for all derivatives types (9)
- Quantify potential risks
- Value derivative
- Attain legal review
- Require collateral
- Have system to monitor and contain risks
- Limit derivative exposure
- Limit counterparty exposure
- Limit derivative activities
- Compensation policies that reduce risk-taking
One approach for setting the plan’s asset allocation
Dynamic investment policy
- Liability-responsive approach
- Glide path
Glide path
- Shifts asset allocation (risk-seeking to risk-protection, shifts when hit trigger)
- Sponsor’s risk tolerance affects the number of trigger points and the degree of shifting
Most common approaches to increasing a plan’s interest rate hedge ratio (2)
- Increase fixed income duration
2. Increase fixed income allocation
Most common reason sponsors avoid long-duration fixed income allocations
- Expect rates will rise
- Glide path provides a balanced approach
Reasons to establish a target asset duration policy ahead of time (4)
- Lack of ability to support risk
- Economic cost vs regret risk
- Asymmetric risk/reward trade-off
- Opportunity cost
Advantages of a glide path (3)
- Balanced approach (long-term objectives vs. short term concerns)
- Predefined triggers
- Avoids inaction
Key Glide Path Design Considerations (4)
- Clear end state
- Appropriate trigger points
- Appropriate monitor frequency
- Formalized governance framework
Most common glide path triggers (5)
- Interest rate levels
- Interest rate spreads
- Funded status
- Plan maturity
- Time
Items to consider when developing a dynamic asset allocation (4)
- Evaluate risk/return trade-offs
- Factors affecting risk/return trade-off
- Account for risks within hedging strategies
- One-way or two-way street
Factors affecting risk/return trade-off (3)
- Low funded status
- Large benefit accruals
- Frozen or low accrual plan with surplus
Method of developing a dynamic asset allocation (5 steps)
- Determine the current asset allocation policy as normal
- Determine high-water mark
- Define high-water mark allocation
- Fill in the intermediate allocation
- Define low-water mark
Practical considerations regarding a dynamic asset allocation approach (8)
- Will funded status estimates be readily available
- Consider month-end shifts after trigger met
- Integrate contributions with dynamic strategy
- Consider special allowances regarding rebalancing policy
- Size of trigger-point frequency and shifting
- Governance process more complex than static approach
- Define reporting procedures
- Conduct formal reviews regularly
Longevity risk
- Can’t be addressed by LDI alone
2. Increases plan’s liability and duration
Demographic factors that affect longevity risk (6)
- Number of participants
- Age
- Gender
- Socio economic profile
- Health profile
- LS take-up rate
Benefit factors that affect longevity risk (2)
- COLAs
2. LS option
Significance of longevity risk measured in two stages:
- Estimate likelihood and size of longevity increase
2. Estimate item 1’s impact on the pension liability
Methods to manage longevity risk (7)
- Buy-out
- Buy-in
- Lump sum
- Longevity swap
- Q-forward
- Synthetic buy-in
- Out-of-the-money longevity swap
Characteristics of a q-forward
- Forward q’s index, date set-up front and dollar amount set up-front
- Plan pays dollar amount x forward q
- Plan receives dollar amount x fixed q
Characteristics of a synthetic buy-in
-Longevity swap combined with other hedges
Ideal plan characteristics for a longevity swap (5)
- Large plan
- Large fixed income allocation
- Strong funded status
- Want to retain some risk
- Preference to pay de-risking over time
Types of longevity swaps (2)
- Indemnity-based
2. Index-based
Longevity risk transfer
- Converts unknown payment stream into fixed payments
- Indemnity-based: Actual experience reimbursed
- Index-based: Reimbursement based on a change in mortality index
Longevity contract risks (4)
- Counterparty
- Rollover
- Basis
- Legal
Ways to reduce default risk (5)
- Net approach
- Collateral
- Good documentation
- Review regulatory regime/capital requirements
- Review financial strength
Best practice longevity contract considerations (7)
- Quantify longevity risk exposure
- Confirm contract is permitted by SIP&P and permitted by law
- Minimal administrative complexity
- Consider contract’s duration
- Lack of liquidity
- Review risk exposures
- Actuarial valuation implications
Characteristics of an out-of-the-money longevity swap
Longevity swap with a threshold trigger and cap
Advantage of buy-outs
Risk irrevocably transferred
Disadvantages of buy-outs (3)
- May trigger settlement accounting
- Partial buy-out may reduce funded status for remaining population
- Must fully fund obligation
Buy-in best practices (3)
- Confirm contract is permitted by SIP&P and permitted by law
- Review default risk
- Review contract terms
Buy-in best practice review /considerations when contract issued by a foreign insurer (5)
- Regulatory regime
- Insurer’s capital/solvency requirements
- Coverage/guarantees if default
- Contract’s enforceability
- Exchange rate risk
Buy-in actuarial valuation considerations (4)
- Value of contract = value of covered benefits
- Calculate value under different scenarios (ongoing, solvency)
- Reflect costs under different scenarios
- Do not smooth value if AVA smoothed
Advantages of Buy-Ins (3)
- No settlement accounting
- Funded status unaffected (other than cost of contract)
- Contract can be converted to a buy-out
Disadvantages of Buy-ins (2)
- PBGC premiums still due
2. Counterparty risk
Advantages of Longevity Swaps/Insurance (6)
- Can retain investment risk
- Don’t need to alter asset allocation
- Fully funded plan not required
- Pays de-risking over time / not all up-front
- Divest unrewarded risk
- Easier to manage LDI strategy
Borrow-to-fund Strategy (5)
- Facilitates immediate de-risking
- Low borrowing rates
- Interest cost offset by PBGC savings
- Volatile deficit converted to fixed debt
- Accelerates tax deductions
Evaluating the cost of a risk transfer (3 steps)
- Compare economic liability to insurer premium
- Economic liability = accounting liability adjusted to reflect PBGC premium, expenses, etc.
- Consider in-kind asset transfers
Risk defined from an asset-only perspective
Volatility of the asset return
Investment plan components (3)
- Asset allocation
- Risk budget
- Update and monitor investment plan
Asset allocation
- Determines overall risk level and long-run expected return
- Determine bond/equity split
- Determine allocation to alternative asset classes
Other types of risk management investment strategies (2)
- Alternative investments (Private equity, hedge funds, etc)
- Alpha-only portfolio
Risk management examples of alternative investment strategies (3)
- Infrastructure assets and private equity match long-term liability characteristics
- Can hedge inflationary benefit increases with commodities and many infrastructure assets
- Alternative assets have a low correlation with stock and bonds
Potential pitfalls and challenges of alternative investments (5)
- Valuation and performance measurements difficult
- Leveraging used
- Short histories and a lack of robust data
- High costs
- Less control
Risk management examples of alpha-only portfolios (2)
- Can hire a skilled manager that invests in a market deemed to be too risky
- Return correlation can be measured against other alpha and beta portfolios
Change in asset allocation risk (4)
- Drift
- Undeployed cash
- Currency deviations
- Manager or benchmark transitions
Ways to minimize allocation risk (2)
- Rebalancing
2. Completion manager
Effectiveness of ALM strategy can be reduced by (2)
- Payment amount uncertainty
2. Timing of payment uncertainty
Events that cause change in duration and method for keeping duration on track
- Change in yield curve or passage of time
2. Rebalancing required
Pension put theory suggests investing in … is optimal
Equities. Equities increase value of put.
Tax arbitrage theory suggests investing in… is optimal
Matching bonds
Labor-relations theory suggests investing in… is optimal
Equities (high return, used to fund or increase benefits)
Accounting theory suggests investing in… is optimal
Equities. Reduces expense
Pension Liability theory suggests investing in… is optimal
Depends on whether tying to hedge interest rate risk and /or future salary
Pension put’s value increases with (5)
- Duration
- Reduction in sponsor’s credit rating
- Asset liability mismatch
- Reduced funded status
- Plan contributions
Plan contributions increase pension put because (3)
- Pension assets are risky
- Pension has long maturity
- Plan members are passive
Labor-relations explanations for typical high equity allocation (2)
- Fiduciary concerns
2. Surplus sharing/entitlement
Pension liability theory
- ABO is metric of interest (Matching bonds optimal)
2. PBO is metric of interest (Include equities to provide long-term hedges)
Inputs for ALM (3)
- Asset assumptions
- Liability assumptions
- Financial assumptions
Setting ALM assumptions (4)
- Start with a historical analysis and combine with current economic conditions
- Bond expected return needs to reflect capital appreciation due to change in rates
- Equity risk premium approach typically used to set expected return for equities
- Determine correlations matrix
Efficient frontier
Portfolio’s best risk/reward combination (highest yield for a given risk or lowest risk for a given yield)
Risk and reward measures may consist of any variable including (Asset perspective (3), Asset-Liability perspective (6))
Asset perspective
- Portfolio return
- Real return
- Wealth
Asset-Liability perspective
- Surplus
- Funded ratio
- Contributions
- Expense
- Benefits paid
- Charges to balance sheet
Efficient frontier methodology (2)
- Single period
2. Non-linear programming
Reasons for using constraints in efficient frontiers include (4)
- Liquidity issues
- Fiduciary issues
- Accuracy of estimates
- Investment policy issues
ALM- Monitoring the follow-up
- Every 3 to 5 years
- Accelerates if changes in :
- Plan benefit structure
- Funded level
- Risk tolerance
- Economic conditions
- Plan demographics
- Results
Traditional asset allocation vs ALM: Investment objective
Maximize return per unit of volatility vs Minimize cost per unit of volatility
Traditional asset allocation vs ALM: Equity exposure
Subject to risk tolerance of trustees vs Virtually dictated by liabilities and funded status
Traditional asset allocation vs ALM: Bond duration
Intermediate duration provides higher return per unit of volatility vs Long duration provides lowest cose per unit of volatility cost
Traditional asset allocation vs ALM: Funding policy
Set through regulations and negotiated assumptions vs Integrated with investment policy to minimize risk adjusted PV of future contributions
Traditional asset allocation vs ALM: Benefit policy
Maximize benefit per unit of cost on deterministic actuarial basis vs Maximize benefit per unit of risk adjusted cost
Sources of public pension savings (ways to save taxpayers money) (7)
- Better asset/liability matching
- Extend the dollar duration of the fixed income portfolio
- Amount of equity exposure
- Rebalancing rules
- Funding policy
- Using a stochastic integrated approach
- ALM enforces investment discipline
Suggested reasons against shifting equities in public funds to bonds (5)
- Government has no shareholders
- Government pays no taxes
- GASB not rushing toward a transparent economic accounting model
- Taxpayers can move to avoid troubled pension fund whereas shareholders must find buyers
- Indefinite lifetime of government plans
Disadvantages of investing public pension plans in equities (5)
- Subject to market risk
- Lowers contribution for current tax payer but passes risk onto future generation
- Current taxpayers subject to under-pricing risk
- Surplus may not go back to taxpayer but used to enhance benefits
- Higher governmental borrowing cost
Obstacles to investing public plans exclusively in bonds (2)
- Politicians prefer lower taxes now and passing risk to future generation
- Lack of accounting transparency hides amount of risk being passed on
How do public plans differ from private plans (5)
- Less oversight
- Diffuse governance
- Budgeting process and accounting standards
- Design issues
- Higher public transparency
Problem with government accounting
Liability uses EROA vs. market discount rate
Public plans need to balance… (3)
- Fulfilling promises to retirees
- Maintaining reasonable pay and benefits for employees
- Reasonable tax assessment
Actions increasing stress on public plans (3)
- Insufficient funding
- Excessive benefit levels
- Inappropriate benefit design
Four common contributors of stress
- Slippery slope of skipping contributions
- Managing surplus
- Asset-liability mismatch
- Competing objectives of controlling authorities
Three main financial levers can be used to control risk
- Benefit levels
- Contributions paid by employees and employers
- Investment policy
The risk management system should establish policies and mechanisms to support… (4)
- Continuous funding
- Education of administration and employees
- Avoiding misaligned/mispriced plan provisions
- Identifying stakeholder objectives that clash with system objectives
Risk management framework (5 steps)
- Identify participants/stakeholders
- Define the objectives of the risk system
- Define the sponsor’s risk budget
- Evaluate range of risk mitigation approaches
- Maintain a feedback process
When identifying participants/stakeholders, document… (2)
- Where they conflict with each other
2. Misalignment of principal and agent interests
Public pension stakeholders (6)
- Society/Taxpayers
- Public employees
- Unions
- Public sector employers
- Retirement system governing body
- Elected officials
Defining objectives of the system
May be difficult due to competing interests
Considerations when defining system’s objectives and risks to be managed (5)
- Sustainability
- Equitable costs for taxpayers
- Appropriate funding
- Benefit design
- Governance that mitigates the competing objectives of stakeholders
Risk budget steps (4)
- Define the risk budget
- Scenarios in which the budget might be exceeded
- Risk mitigation strategies that can be used
- Process and time horizon to implement strategy
Example of systematic risk
Longevity risk affecting pool as a whole
Example of tail risk
Lower tax revenue when contributions increase
Risk mitigation techniques (5)
- System discipline
- Pricing discipline
- Budgetary discipline
- Traditional risk mitigation
- Depending on regulatory backstop structure
System discipline examples (2)
- Tight control over surplus uses
2. Risk-sharing plan provisions
Pricing discipline examples (4)
- Using market values
- Stochastic measurements
- Stress and specific scenario testing
- Analyzing trade-offs if changes made
Budget discipline examples (2)
- Align revenue with costs
2. Ensure cost variability can be supported by taxpayers
Regulatory backstop if system fails
Increases taxes
Items that distort the pension plan feedback loop (4)
- Long time horizon
- Dysfunctional control structure
- Lack of effective regulatory standard
- Economic and demographic cycles
Funding dysfunction occurs when (4)
- Employer not required to make needed contributions
- Non-actuarial method used to determine contributions
- Benefits not adjusted if contributions are insufficient
- There are no surplus restrictions
Approach taxpayers should consider implementing to manage risk (6)
- Report liability on a market basis
- Freeze future DB accruals
- Invest existing DB assets in matching treasuries
- Address remaining deficit
- Provide DC accruals prospectively
- Allow employees to participate in Social Security prospectively
Federal government could incent reforms (2)
- Encourage state-local govt to issue bonds to finance deficit
- Provide subsidies with conditions (Freeze DB accruals, reduce ancillary benefits, require asset liability matching, etc.)
Purpose of funding policy
Ensure benefits can be paid on on-going basis and on solvency basis
Advantages of developing a funding policy (6)
- Improves understanding and management of risks
- More robust governance
- Increased funding discipline
- Increased transparency
- Provide guidance to the actuary (selection of assumptions and cost methods)
- Documents sponsor’s objectives and how will meet them
Factors that should be taken into account when developing a funding policy (9)
- Benefit security
- Stable and affordable contributions
- Sponsor’s financial situation and needs
- Plan population demographics
- Legal minimum funding requirements
- Plan’s funded status
- Agreement between sponsor and participants
- ITA maximum limits
- Use of surplus requirements
Best practice issues that should be considered when developing a funding policy (11)
- Plan overview
- Funding objectives
- Key risks faced by the plan
- Funding volatility factors and management of risk
- Funding target ranges
- Cost sharing mechanism
- Utilization of funding excess
- Actuarial methods and assumptions
- Frequency of valuations
- Monitoring
- Communication policy
Funding target ranges should describe desired (3)
- Funding target
- Contribution levels
- Cost sharing
Funding policy should be aligned with the (4)
- Decision making process
- Sponsor’s objectives
- Plan objectives
- Investment policy
Key risks that can affect benefit security and funding volatility (2)
- Asset liability mismatch
2. Plan population specifics
Multi-employer pension plans funding policy should describe (5)
- Approach used to set the benefit levels
- Risks related to fixed contributions
- Decision making roles of trustees, employers and union
- How intergenerational equity will be addressed
- Policy regarding benefit reductions (when adjusted, what is adjusted, etc.)
Actuarial violation of corporate finance principles (4)
- Intergenerational inequity
- Underpricing pensions in compensation decisions
- US GAAP biases investment decisions
- Smoothing conceals risk
How do financial economists and actuaries believe pensions should be valued?
Actuaries
- Reflect equity risk premium
- Use EROA
- Smooth gains and losses
- Level contributions
Financial economists
- Do not reflect equity risk premium (reflect gain when earned)
- Risk-adjusted discount rate (matching bond portfolio)
- Report ABO not PBO
- Focus is market-based vs. level contributions
Financial economists: reporting of pension surplus
Only report if invested in matching bonds
Pension finance utilizes the following liability calculations (3)
- Market liability
- Solvency liability
- Budget liability
Differences between pension finance liability calculations explains the following
- Market liability - Solvency liability = Default risk
- Market liability - Budget liability = Expected equity risk premium
Financial economics preference for corporate reporting (5)
- Balance sheet = deficit
- Expense = change in deficit
- Charge against operating income = SC
- Finance charge = IC - actual return on assets
- OCI adjustment (demographics g/l, assumption changes, amendments)
Additional arguments of financial economists (3)
- Asset liability mismatch passes risk to someone other than sponsor
- Budgeting model inadequate (does not ensure security when poorly funded
- Cost of pension fund is independent of the way it is funded
Additional arguments by actuaries regarding valuation models (2)
- Financial economics limitations (no matching assets)
2. Cash flow matching may not be optimal
Two methods of calculating the market value of the liability per actuary’s understanding of financial economics
- Project the salary with the expected salary growth and discount the benefit with the expected return on the matching assets
- Project the salary with the risk-adjusted salary growth and discount the benefit at the risk-free rate
Ways of calculating risk-adjusted salary growth (2)
- Calculated the expected value of salary growth using risk neutral probabilities
- Use the following formula : k* = k+ pj(r-i)/s
Law of one price
- Marked-to-market accounting based on the law of one price
- Two financial instruments that generate identical cash flows and are both tradable in an efficient market must have the same price
Typical approaches to managing pension (3)
- Silo approach (not integrated into ERM)
- Decisions focus on shareholder value
- Key measures (improve operating earnings, reduce earnings volatility)
Recommended approaches for corporations
Incorporate holistic balance sheet approach into risk management, strategic planning, decision making and financial metrics
Empirical evidence of pension effects
- Large plan size relative to business = greater stock price volatility/beta, greater cost of capital
- Pension debt viewed as riskier than other debt
- Plan freeze/close neutral on stock price
- Credit rating impact : Buy-out = neutral, ALM = positive
- Credit spreads impact (asymmetric effect, ALM de-risking not significant)
Principles from financial economics regarding pensions (7)
- Should not destroy shareholder value
- Invest in matching bonds (tax arbitrage)
- Use economic pension liability
- Transparent accounting (no EROA/smoothing
- Pension deficits are corporate debt
- Surplus/deficit impacts are asymmetric on credit rating and stock value
- Allocate/manage pension risks efficiently
Economic pension liability reflects (4)
- ABO
- PBGC costs
- Termination rate
- Embedded options
Pension deficits vs other corporate debt (2)
- Borrowed from employees
2. Not efficient (volatile, greater impact on credit rating, subject to PBGC premium)
Observations of the holistic balance sheet (4)
- Uses economic pension liability
- Net pension obligation approach lacks transparency
- Buyout removes assets and liabilities
- Remove assets/liabilities for hedged pension liability
Holistic balance sheet considers all sources of funding (3)
- Plan assets
- Sponsor support
- Value of PBGC insurance
Pensions can materially impact the following decisions (2)
- Raise equity or debt capital (affected by size of deficit relative to company)
- Issue fixed or floating rate debt (affected by plan’s interest rate risk)
Key corporate finance metrics affected by pensions (3)
- Corporate leverage (debt to equity ratio)
- Income/ cash flow adjustments made by rating agencies
- WACC
Corporate leverage ratios include (3)
- Debt to equity ratio
- Long term debt to equity ratio
- Total assets to equity ratio
Moody’s credit rating adjustment (2)
- Only SC included in pretax income
- If the plan is underfunded
- Implied interest =deficit x marginal borrowing rate
- Implied interest subtracted from pretax income
- Contributions in excess of SC reclassified
Standard and Poor’s credit rating adjustment
Items offset against core earnings:
- SC
- Interest cost not covered by the actual return
Risk budgeting
Amount spent to mitigate risk
Questions managers should ask (2)
- How does pension risk reward the corporation?
2. Which risks should be hedged / retained / transferred?
Key goals of ERM
Determine how much risk should be taken and how
ERM
- Analyze the trade-off between risk and capital
2. Allocate shareholder capital to different risks
Risk budgeting approaches (5)
- VaR
- TVaR
- Ruin probability
- Sensitivity analysis
- Maintain equity and debt betas
Equity Capital (reserve)
- Complete a risk budgeting approach
2. Set aside reserve based on quantified risk
Key concepts regarding capital
- Uses
- Grow income
- Mitigate risk - Ways to raise capital
- Debt
- Issue shares
Outside considerations that may explain corporate preference for equities (12)
- Cost reduction
- Professional advice
- Legal issues (PPR)
- Wider interests of shareholders
- Signaling
- Inertia
- Strong historical equity growth disguises risk
- Accounting methods reward equity allocation
- Failure by analysts and investors to see through opaque accounting
- Asset allocation risk not reflected in insurance premiums
- Competitive reasons
- Short-term risks are self-corrected in the actuarial process
Inside considerations that may explain corporate preference for equities (5)
- The role of corporate managers (incentive to increase their own wealth)
- Direct interest of management in pension scheme (generating surplus)
- Preference for rewarded risk
- Scope for creative accounting
- Better correlated with salaries
Reasons why subjective judgments should be avoided (selecting discount rate that results in a lower liability than its economic value) (4)
- People tend to overrate their ability to forecast asset prices and returns
- Stakeholder may further their own interests at the expense of other stakeholders
- Actuaries susceptible to client pressures
- More open to criticism
Financial economists : Reasons to shift asset allocation from equities to 100% duration matched bonds from the shareholders view (9)
- Investor can invest equities in own portfolio
- Benefit security
- Reduce investment management fees
- Reduce sponsor’s financial risk
- Tax arbitrage
- Cost of pension fund independent of way it is funded
- Reduces asymmetry risk
- Reduces underpricing risk
- Surplus asymmetric reward/risk
Effect of financial economic assumptions on arbitrage amount (4)
- Equity return assumption does not impact after-tax income
- Arbitrage is proportional to bond return assumption
- Arbitrage is proportional to individual tax rate spread
- Arbitrage is proportional to (1-corporate tax rate)
Arbitrage amount formula
Plan assets x Tax spread x bond return x (1 - corporate tax rate)
What are advantages about borrowing money and then purchasing duration matched bonds if have a pension deficit? (6)
- Leaves net liabilities unchanged and borrowing capacity undiminished
- Can take tax deduction on principal immediately vs deferred on loan used to fund plan
- Accelerate deductions on interest on loan vs. funding plan’s interest cost later
- Does not compete with borrowing to fund capital investment
- Employees happier
- Shareholders happier because full funding can create tax arbitrage
Advantages of VBO accounting over PBO accounting (9)
- Immunizes employees so don’t bear brunt of plan design changes
- Clarifies employment contract
- Reduces dependency on ambiguous implicit contracts
- Minimizes opportunities for gaming
- Reduces the threat and cost of regulation
- Provides transparency to investors
- Gives management more plan design flexibility
- Would illuminate total cost of plan amendments immediately to shareholders
- Avoids moral hazards
Types of contract risks faced by employees (3)
- Demographics risk
- Firm-specific risk
- Moral hazard
Principles behind contracts (2)
- Increasing employment contract risk may be efficient up to a limit
- Exposing employees to moral hazard is generally inefficient
DB plan contract design from an employer and employee perspective (4)
- Compensation is withheld
- Trains employees to enhance future productivity
- Motivates them to perform under the risk of losing value withheld
- Rewards them at retirement
What is one way to identify a frail plan design?
ABO significantly larger than VBO (Put’s employees compensation at risk/creates a moral hazard) Employees will demand a higher pay in this situation
Frail design features (5)
- Subsidized early retirement with cliff eligibility
- Revocable benefit promises
- Past service benefits
- Plan shutdown benefits
- Cash balance conversions
Benefit design features that reduce post-employment frailty (3)
- Fund individual accounts
- Modest class-year vesting
- Full vesting at an age when retention is no longer a goal
Moral hazard provides opportunity for exploitation which if acted on can… (4)
- Diminish employee morale
- Increase turnover
- Cause recruiting difficulties
- Lead to lawsuits
Typical funding regulations for determining minimum contributions (3)
- Formula based on funded status
- Determined on plan-specific basis
- Based pension asset’s risk profile
Current funding regulations are procyclical which have the following effects (3)
- Contribution requirements inversely correlated with economic conditions
- Affect investment strategies
- Benefit changes correlated with economic conditions
Disadvantages of procyclical funding regulations (3)
- Increased pressure on sponsors when economic conditions are bad
- Unstable contributions
- DB plans discontinued
Goals of counter-cyclical pension plan funding (3)
- Long-term viability
- Stability
- Benefit security for participants
Counter-cyclical approach : Funding regulations that want to achieve long-term viability, stability and security should (3)
- Encourage additional contributions when sponsor’ finances are strong (deficit reduction contributions, surplus build-up)
- Maintain predictable costs and dampen volatility
- Give sponsors more control over managing risks and costs
Counter-cyclical approach : What type of funding regulations is better aligned with goals of funding regulations
Counter-cyclical
Counter-cyclical funding policies should incorporate the following principles (8)
- Avoid excessive reliance on market values
- Funding targets that provide benefit security
- Allow overfunding in good economic times
- Limit contribution holidays and sponsor’s access to surplus
- Actuarial methods producing stable contribution patterns
- Flexible rules that reflect funding volatility
- Avoid over-regulation
- Maintain stable regulatory environment
Smoothing techniques as an alternative to market techniques include (3)
- Average interest rate
- Smoothed value of assets
- Average funded ratio
Caveats with smoothing (2)
- Use consistent techniques for assets and liabilities
2. Can mask plan that is in serious financial trouble
Ways to develop funding targets that promote benefit security (2)
- Increase funding target if exposed to asset liability mismatch
- Target should reflect insurance schemes (conservative target if benefits not insured)
Methods to allow overfunding in good economic times (3)
- Maximum limit based multi-year period
- Increase maximum surplus level before suspending contributions
- Max based smoothing metric
Ways to limit access to surplus (3)
- Require additional benefits
- Allow partial withdrawal above specified
- Excise tax
Ways to incorporate flexible rules that reflect funding volatility (3)
- Allow longer amortizations if use market techniques
- Allow letter of credit to secure deficits
- Allow trustee to set prudent recovery period
PBGC is designed to be self-financing through (4)
- Premiums (fixed and variable)
- Assets acquired by terminating plans
- Investment returns
- Bankruptcy recoveries
Filing a claim with the PBGC (4 conditions)
- Member guarantee is limited
- Must be in severe financial distress
- Plan must be underfunded
- PBGC may terminate plan without employer consent
Flaws in the pension insurance system (6)
- Premiums set by congress
- Premiums not properly priced
- Funding requirements inadequate
- Funded status not transparent
- Subject to systematic risk
- Low-risk sponsors subsidizing high-risk sponsors
Reforms needed that… (6)
- Implement risk-adjusted premiums
- Tighten funding rules
- Restrict investment policies
- Allow PBGC to purchase reinsurance
- Require regular and timely disclosures
- Given pensions seniority over other creditors
Should charge risk-adjusted premiums reflecting (3)
- Probability firm will experience distress
- Full extent of underfunding
- Asset-liability mismatch
Factors contributing to inadequate funding requirements (3)
- Asset and liability smoothing
- Extended amortization of plan amendments
- Credit balances
Approaches to reform (2)
- Implement market incentives to existing system
2. Mandate firms purchase insurance through private market
Potential criticisms of privatization (3)
- PBGC should be viewed as a social insurance program
- Difficult to insure systematic risk in private market
- Transition difficult for poorly funded plan
DB funding regulations should aim for (3)
- Benefit security
- Acceptable costs to sponsors
- Encouraging DB plans
Purpose of pension regulations is to enhance (3)
- Equity
- Adequacy
- Benefit security
Three types of market risks pension regulations should address (3)
- Information asymmetry
- Externality
- Monopoly
Caveats of excessive regulations (2)
- Discourage participation
2. Reduce competitiveness
Societal issues regarding trend from DB to DC (4)
- Not saving enough
- Poor investment choices
- High management costs
- Increasing cost of annuity purchase rates
Examples of regulatory features that discourage DB plans (4)
- Minimum benefit requirements
- Investment guarantees
- Mandatory indexation
- Surplus restrictions
Ways to regulate risky investments (2)
- QAR
2. PPR
Current regulatory needs (2)
- Address longevity risk
2. Require counter cyclical funding
Advantages of PPR vs QAR (2)
- Can invest on the efficient frontier
2. Does not restrict free market
Disadvantages of QAR (3)
- Not needed for diversification since PPR requires diversification
- Restricts investment liquidity vs. investor’s liquidity position
- Plan’s specific liability duration not reflected
Regulatory enforcement of QAR vs PPR
QAR: confirm rues not broken
PPR: assess validity of the investment approach
Risk-based regulations to address funded status risk / asset-liability risk in DB plans (4)
- VaR
- Stress testing
- Scenario testing
- Score card
Examples of risk-based funding regulations (2)
- Adjust funding target
2. Require stress tests
Risk-based funding regulations should reflect (5)
- Nature of plan risks
- Extent benefits can be modified
- Extent contributions can be raised
- Sponsor’s creditworthiness
- Whether benefits are insured
Stress test caveats (2)
- Valid model outcomes needed for success
2. Can lead to complacent risk management
Risk scoring process (5 steps)
- Complete detailed profile of fund
- Identify management units
- Assess risks
- Assign a score
- Score drives frequency of on-site inspections
Caveats with an insurance-based regulatory approach (4)
- Guarantor may default
- Moral hazard
- Conflicting regulations
- May discourage participation
Caveats with risk-based regulations (3)
- Encourages short-term investment policies
- Model risk / assumption risk
- Herd outcomes
Ways to regulate DC costs (3)
- Direct
- Central agency
- Transparency
Ways to regulate DC Risks / Outcomes includes restricting investments via (4)
- QAR
- Stress testing
- Daily VaR ceilings
- Risk scoring
Caveats with DC investment regulations (3)
- Greater low risk allocations can harm retirement outcome
- Sell equities during market downturn
- Subject to modeling error
Ways to regulate longevity risk for DC Participants (4)
- Require annuitization
- Subsidize / fix price of annuities
- Regulate broker commissions
- Electronic quotation system
Ways to regulate transparency and financial education for DC participants (5)
- Auditor report
- Benefit statements
- Benefit risk simulators
- Fee disclosure
- Require financial education