risk management Flashcards
the floating exchange rates
increased volatility due to • fluctuation in commodity prices • stresses in global financial system • large & ongoing current account deficits run by some countries
volatility of interest rates
cash S/T interest rates
increase and so L/T volatility
what does ALCO stand for?
(large banks) asset and liability
management committee (ALCO) i.e. risk management
committee - to identify operational & financial risk
exposures & analyse the impacts
define risk
the chance that actual outcome will differ from
expected outcome.
It equals uncertainty (usually of a loss).
Risk is assumed to arise out of variability
what risks do modern FIs face?
- Credit (default) risk
- Interest rate risk
- Liquidity risk
- Off-balance sheet risks
- Foreign exchange risk
- Operational/technology risk
- Country/sovereign risk
Interest Rate Risk For depository FIs
_______ of future cash flows & _____ of assets or liabilities-(for
borrower their liabilities, or lender their investments) to uncertain
changes in interest rates
Sensitivity
Value
(1)What are the two important aspects of interest rate risk?
- refinancing risk
2. reinvestment risk
(1)refinancing risk
- risk that cost of
reborrowing funds > than returns earned on asset
investment. (assets have longer maturity than liabilities)
Example:
• if interest rates stay the same, FI can refinance its liabilities at
9% & lock in profit of 1%.
• if interest rates increase & FI can only borrow new 1 yr liabilities at
11%, then spread is negative (-1%)
(1)reinvestment risk
- the risk that the returns
on the funds to be reinvested will fall below the cost of the
funds. (Liabilities have longer maturity than assets)
example:
• FI still locks in one-year profit of 1%.
At the end of first year, asset matures & funds have to be
reinvested. If interest rates decrease so that return on assets is 8%,
then FI faces a loss in second year of 1%.
(2)what is price risk?
it is Rising interest rates increase discount rates on future cash flows
& the price (market value) of that asset or liability decreases
-So FIs face price risk on their assets & any securities it holds
(2) FIs with assets that are _____ ______,
mismatching maturities by holding _______ assets than
liabilities means that when interest rates _____, the market value of the FI’s assets fall by a greater amount than its liabilities
- Debt instruments
- Longer-term
- increase
relationship between interest rates & business cycle
Expansion phase: all rates tend to rise BUT short-term rates tend to be more volatile than long-term & rise more quickly than long-term rates . peak & early stages of recession: yield curve has negative slope
Once economy in recession:
all rates decrease BUT short-term tend to
fall more quickly than long-term
At some point in recession, yield curves have positive slope
trough & through
.process begins again
money supply approach to forecasting interest rates
– If projected money supply growth greater than projected GDP
income, then interest rates likely to fall
– If projected money supply growth less than projected GDP
income, then interest rates likely to rise
fisher effect to forecasting interest rates
- argument that observed changes in nominal interest rates will reflect changes in rate of inflation expected
by lenders
(3) what are the 3 methods to measuring interest rate risk?
- maturity gap analysis
- duration gap analysis
- scenario analysis
(3) scenario analysis
-simulate how much net income changes when rate increase or decrease & use regression technique.
- Also can model impact on balance sheet through changes
in value of assets & liabilities
(3) GAP analysis (for identifying risk for net interest income)
-Identification of assets (loans) & liabilities (deposits) that are
sensitive to interest rate movements within defined planning period
what are interest rate sensitive assets (RSA)?
- those on which a floating rate
is payable; interest rate sensitive liabilities (RSL) similarly defined.
GAP=?
RSA - RSL
if banks expect rates to increase what should it do in relation to GAP?
it should have a positive gap & hold rate-sensitive assets in order
to take advantage of future rate increases & hold fixed-rate
liabilities to lock in current low rates
if banks expect rates to decrease what should it do in relation to GAP?
it should have a negative gap & hold fixed-rate assets to lock in high rates & rate-sensitive
liabilities
duration =
average lifetime of an asset or liability found by
calculating weighted average time to receipt of each element of cash flow of security
duration analysis
Provides single measure of risk by applying to balance sheet & offers way to find effect of interest rate risk.
Usefulness of duration
- all securities of same duration will increase
(or decrease) in value by same % for any given change in interest
rates.
