Risk Assesement Flashcards
Violence and Risk Assessment
Difficult job- predicting future
Should we let. Them out- on bail?
Make decisions regarding where to put person
Decisions about persons life
Eventually worst rapist gets parole- don’t want them to spend life in jail
Serve full sentence- don’t pit out on parole- not ideal
Psychopathy
Psychopathy- most powerful risk factor- also least practical
Best editor of future behaviour= past behaviour- and that is bad- behaviour is unpredictable and dependent n other factors
Rely on static to control for dynamic
Don’t know if prediction is right or not
Practical difficulties of risk assesment
Violent Erik’s assesment- violence to self or others
Risk Assessment
“The process of identifying and studying hazards to reduce the probability of their occurrence.”
How do we define violence?
Physical injury vs. psychological damage
Actual harm vs. intent
Instrumental vs. reactive
Sexual vs. non-sexual
Use d to talk about dangerous
1- do. His in all areas of life- must have insurance to drive car- insurance company weighs factors to decide how much u pay
Paying for the probability they think you will die / be in accident- gender, age, area, previous accidents, health issues, type of car
Don’t all do it the same
Define violence- not easy, there are different criteria and definitions- physical vs threat
Have to see if it is a good predictor of violence
Physical damage- easier to quntify- psychological- judge and jury agree
Violence may not be bets marker of violent behaviour- psychological violence- is it determined violence and does it predict violent behaviour
Actual harm vs intent- shoot but miss-= not violent- nothing violent happened
No intent- drunk and run someone over is this violent behaviour?
Legal ramifications are obvious- but how o your asses their risk? Consider all factors
Instrumental vs reactive(loosing temper, lashing out)
Instrumental- do it for other reasons- hit men, get money
Everyone is capable of reactive but not instrumental- which is worse. Who is more dangerous
No right answer
Risk assementconcersn liberty- higher stakes then money
Infinite ways one can be violent/ become violent.
Sexual vs not sexual-
Sexual- is not violent- if you take away rape an penetration
Sexual deviant disorder= more likely to commit sex crime- not violence
Predictions across lagrge groups of people- many do not fit criteria- will b dangerous when commit sex crime
Not interested in any type of violence- regards serious violence- but what is serious violence
Prediction in the Forensic Context
To predict is to to make a statement about the likelihood of a future event or behaviour
Risk refers to a condition that exists as a function of the presence of someone/something perceived as dangerous
Risk assesment driven by psychometrics
Human behaviour shaped by too many factors- cant measure all factors that influence behaviour- esp because of ethical considerations -Chaos theory- butterfly flap cases hurricane
How Likley is it to happen
Dangerous and risk- not the same
Main metric – recidivism(rate of re conviction after release- weak metric- many reoffend and don’t get caught
When get caught- not usually first time you’ve done it- and for reoffending need to catch them
Don’t have standardized structures
Done in legal and medical situations goal is to protect society from harm
Risk Assessment vs. Dangerousness
Dangerousness Risk Assessment
case by case empirical data
vague specific
stable trait changes over time
predicts violence prevents violence
Case by case- look at the individual and their history only- caused bias- anecdotal evidence- dot now what caused behaviour
Diversify sources of info- get more balanced view
Empirical data- look at large groups of data
Gives us a probability
Vague- what does dangerous mean- don’t now what it means
Specific- states situations where once can be a danger to others or themselves- how they are dangerous and who to
Stable- dangerous because of inherent reasons- is possible but not the norm- everyone does something bad at least once
Changes over time- don’t want to incarcerate people- understand that things happen not because you are dangerous- not indicative of who the are- incarceration not help
Predicts violence- let them around someone- something bad will happen
not useful
Prevents violence- states if this happens- they will hurt someone- make sure that never happens
Focused on finding what risk is and how we can prevent it from occurring agin
Risk Assessment
Identify persons likely to commit violence and develop interventions to reduce risk
Predicting future behavior is extremely difficult (Fundamental Attribution Error)
Concept is- keep them out off places where violence is likely- depends on person- therapy- relapse prevention model- identify risks, identify how to avoid risky situations, specific patterns of behaviour and stretigies to be implemented if encounter.a risk factor
Sign it like a contract- makes it more likley to follow through
Fundamental attribution error- if they are charged with violent crime- its because thay are violent, did bad because they are bad- don’t unerstand there may be other context
Not all violence is wrong- need to know context
Purpose of Risk Assessment
Why do we measure it?
Protect society and the person
To help inform decisions regarding:
Threat posed by an individual to others
Treatment options -intensity, modality, and targeting of treatment
Justice decisions (bail, detention, location for detention, LTO or DO applications)
Sentencing and dispositional planning
Supervision and case planning
Discharge from custody
How do we treat this person- get them help they need
Intensity- what is the issue- decide based on violence severity
Bail or not and how mu h is is
Detention- hold without bail
Jail- sentence less than 2 years
Long term offender vs dangerous offender
Supervision and case planning- only for highest risk- but least capable to be helped
End result is discharge- smooth transition into society
Risk markers
- Gender - 90% of violent crime done by men
- Age - age is inversely related to risk
- Previous Antisocial and Criminal Behavior
- Conditional release, parole and probation violation
- Delinquency
- Dysfunctional family environment
- Physical and sexual abuse as a child
- Unemployment
- Lack of intimate relationships
- Mental illness – schizophrenia and mania
- Substance Abuse
- Sexual deviance
- Psychopathy
These risk markers seen as useful
Men convicted of crime more than women, women less likely to be charged and convicted- depends on area – ethnicity impacts this
In adolescence- gap isn’t as bug- either young violet women mature faster- grow out of violence phase quicker or young women are more violent now then used to be
Age- as get older, less crime, violence skyrockets at adolescence- nearly identical o testosterone levels
18-24- responsible for most crime
2 years old= most aggressive age
Psychopathy- does not= violence
Ostracism from others- leads to violence
Sexual sadist who are psychopaths- most dangerous
Past behaviour- gives most stable predictor of future behaviour
Impulse control problems- given a previous chance to change behaviour- but did not follow it- back to jail
Delinquency- things young offenders do- may not be illegal- truancy, suspensions, expulsions- speak to their character and risk
Not physical or emotional abuse- dysfunction= below level of abuse. Divorce- high conflict
belive they will turn out like kid
Neglect
Worst= inconsistent parenting- cant learn boundaries- don’t know what’s wrong or right
7- 1/3 of abuse victims- go on to be an offender
Trauma that manifests in a maladaptive way
8- esp for men, alcohol causes violence- tak away decision making recess
More likely to be doing nothing, feeling hopeless- commit crime to get money
9- not connected to society, not responsible for others
10- doesn’t cause violence but psychosis- inc likelihood of violence but predicts less violence- psychosiss makes it more likely to get treatment= not likley to commit violence
11-drugs act as inhibitor, can make you violent, may use drugs before committing crime to calm them down, drug business= lots of violence
12- more severe disorder and more worse offender= more likley to offend
13- best risk marker
Conduct Disorder
Aggression to people and animals
Destruction of property
Deceitfulness or theft
Serious violations of rules
Onset before or after age 10
Mild, moderate or severe
(3 or more of 15 symptoms in past 12 months)
Psychopathy
Continuous variable - Hare’s Psychopathy Checklist (PCL)
Based on personality traits more than observable behavior
Violence of psychopaths is distinguishable
Retribution and revenge violence
High density offenders
Recidivate with highest frequency
Used revised PCL
Aspd- has lack of empathy and manipulativeness
Psychopathy= worst offenders, more severe aspd
Many with psychopathy also meet criteria for aspd
But those with sad don’t have psychopathy
1- do not learn from past punishement, take long to classically condition- fights vs flight system is different- violence knows no logic- will attack someone even if police are there- don’t let negative events in future affect present behaviour
Brain doesn’t send signal- doing this will result in something bad
2- most likely to kill police
Offend across all victims, diverse list of crimes- steal, murder, rape
3- reoffend
Why is this not useful- small proportion of society, not standardized,
Procedural Aspects of Risk Assessment
Importance of training and expertise
Best tool/method for your purpose
Utilization of multiple sources of information
Confirmation of the validity of information
Assessment Methods
Clinical prediction
Structured clinical/professional judgment (often referred to as SPJ)
Actuarial prediction
For each, we need to consider:
What, and how, relevant or “predictive” items are selected
Interpretation
Clinical- using clinical psychologist/psychiatrist to do assessment
SPJ- actuarial and clinical
Clinical Prediction
This process involves a review of the info about a person – the clinician uses experience and/or intuition to make a judgment about future risk
Base rates
Using psychiatric symptoms and diagnoses as important factors
Rarely have follow-up experience
Communication of risk:
specify the person being “a risk” or categorized…. “a low risk”, “moderate” etc
The combination rule for factors in unspecified
Permission to use idiosyncratic items
Review of info about individual- interview, therapy session, base rates- how many have this
Don’t follow up- no feedback on decisions- cant improve
How add together- alcohol and addiction how do you come tho this- don’t know can b biased
Not consistent, don’t know why decision is made
Not that good- allows for endocrosic factor– had family- changed him
Actuarial Predictions
Information is based on empirically derived data; variables are statistically demonstrated to predict risk (e.g., violence, sexual violence) over a specified period of time (e.g., 5 years, 10 years)
Objective method of combining data to make decisions - explicit, structured, systematic
Statistical procedures used in development
Initially test large number of variables – demonstrated as important via research or experience
Items that add to prediction are included (regression)
Can include clinically assessed variables
Commonly utilizes static risk factors only
Specific as possible, standardized
Include diagnoses, add t it
Doesn’t account for special cases
Actuarial Approach
Designed to predict outcome
Approach employed by insurance companies
Likelihood of violence expressed as a relative probability
Compare offenders to other offenders
Large samples with normed data for interpretation
Risk categories
Percentile rankings
e.g., VRAG, SORAG, STATIC-99, ODARA
Low, medium sever risk
99 percentile risk- out of a 100 ppl- 1 person more risky than you
Violent risk assesment guide- most used
Advantage
Objective, scientific
Affords constancy (reliability) and accuracy (validity)
Increasingly more accurate (Hilton, Harris, & Rice, 2006)
Disadvantage
Can be insensitive to change (e.g., dynamic variables)
Optimization can restrict generalization
Becomes more accurate- are modifying and uopdatig model
