Rising Powers Flashcards
What is the Current global order
Liberal world order
The United States, with its allies, established the liberal world order after World War II.
Institutions were built to promote peace (ICC, UNSC) and economic development .
The liberal word order was not just based on ideals but was also preserved by hard power. Nuclear weapons served to deter aggression
Who are the rising powers
The BRICS- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
All have experienced rapid economic growth over the last 20 years
China
In the last decade and a half China has gone from being the 9th largest exporter to the no.1. exporter.
estimates suggest the absolute size of China’s economy will surpass the US by 2020 – 2022.
Nuclear armed state
Permanent member of the UNSC
Russia
Post-Cold War economic hardship
But economy soared under Putin
Security Council paralysis (Syria) (Libya)
Eastern European ‘sphere of influence
Brazil
Its economy has risen to be in the top ten internationally
Brazil has an abundance of soft power. Brazil is influential because of its territorial size, wealth of resources and large population. For Brazil, winning the rights to host international sport events gave the country recognition and symbolic power in the international arena.
Brazil is also a diplomatically ambitious country: Brazil played an important role in negotiations with Iran when it comes to its nuclear programme which led to the 2010 Tehran Declaration .
Issues for BRICS: Russia and China
Russian population is so low in the eastern part. Chinese migrants are moving steadily north into this vastly underpopulated area. This could open the door for the border disputes that Russia and China had over this areas that are rich with natural resources.
Issues for BRICS: China and India
There are border disputes between India and China that resulted in the 1962 war. Issues over border have not been resolved and they pop up to the surface every while and then.
Issues for the BRICS: The Sickman of the BRICS
South Africa has major challenges like high unemployment rate of 27% and weak educational system. South Africa has the biggest HIV epidemic in the world, with 7.1 million people living with HIV
Other Issues for BRICS
Rivals – MINT/MIKT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria/South Korea and Turkey)
The problems of innovation, education and corruption
All these issues put question marks about the ability of the BRICS to challenge the current global order
US decline
Power in International Relations is relative: It is not just about the rise of other powers, but also about the decline of the US
Are they actually declining?
Economic power?
Military power?
What’s the relationship between power and influence?
America - An empire at risk
Impact of 2008 financial crisis, the War on Terror, additional military expenditure, Bush era tax cuts and spiralling welfare costs
As 2013, $5 trillion or approximately 47% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were the People’s Republic of China and Japan at just over $1.1 trillion each.
On December 12, 2013, US combined total public debt of $17.226 trillion or over 100% GDP.
The US moment has not yet ended
2017: US defence budget was $523.9 billion
China’s estimated budget roughly $145.8 billion (IISS, 2015)
Russia’s is an estimated $65 billion.
All of NATO combined (excluding America) is an estimated $202 billion.
So the US is still the military powerhouse of the globe and has a military designed to fight anywhere in the world.
Things to consider
As the US declines, a power vacuum will emerge and present estimations suggest that one of the BRICS - China will fill this power vacuum. In co-operation or competition?
But if this were a running race, the US has an incredible head start in terms of military and economic and cultural power.
The peaceful rise of China
The central idea is that China will not challenge the current world order but rather will assimilate itself into it
From this perspective, the status quo will continue.
It does not seek to become a superpower; it just wants to increase its market share (happy with the current economic order).
The rise of China will not see US values replaced, they will buy into the very same system the US helped create in the first place.
Why would it be peaceful?
The current order has been very good to China
Recent historical behaviour might suggest assimilation of current global order rather than overturning it
China is the single largest holder of US debt, in 2016, it owned $1.25 trillion (US Treasury)
China cannot afford the US to decline and the US cannot afford China to ask for its money back
