Reviewer Flashcards
The attempt to quantify demand in a future time period
A technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends
Forecasting
Cover such day to day operations
Short term forecast
1-5 years
Medium term forecast
5-10 years
Long term forecasting
Do not use statistical databases or provide measures of forecast accuracy since they are based on opinions, surveys, and beliefs
Qualitative forecasts
Are most beneficial for newer or smaller companies who lack enough historical data to produce accurate quantitative results
Qualitative forecasts
Relatively informal information gathering procedure in marketing research. It typically brings together 8-12 individuals to discuss a given subject
Are brought into a room where a moderator asks questions to help move the discussion forward
Provide quick and relatively inexpensive insight into their research problem
Participants may not produce completely honest responses
If the representative is not in the target population then the responses are likely to be inaccurate
Focus group
A survey is simply a method of acquiring information by asking people what they think will happen
Easy to use and do not require advanced theory or economic analysis to interpret the results
Accuracy of the survey depends on the size and responsiveness of the sample
Market Survey
Involve testing new product factors, such as prices or packaging, in a few test markets
Use real life markets
Risky if the change is not accepted by the consumers
Market experiments
Involves using current values of certain variables called indicators, to help predict future values of other variables
Barometric forecasting
Is a variable whose current changes give an indication of future changes in other variables
Most useful, since it provides an early signal of what may come
Are believed to change before the economy as a whole changes and allow a prediction to be made
Leading indicator
Variable whose changes typically follow changes in other economic variables
One that follows an event. The nature of it does not allow for the prediction of events but rather allows for confirmation that the forecasted event or trend is occurring or has occured
Lagging indicator
Not tremendously useful for aviation forecasting but does have other applications
Changes roughly coincide with changes in other economic variables
Coincident economic indicators
Simple forecasting technique where the future is forecasted based on historical events
Uses historical data to predict the future
Dependent on the depth of knowledge and history that the forecaster has
Historical analogy
Related to historical analogy in that the forecast is largely based on opinions;
Collects forecasts and opinions from an independent panel of experts
No steamroller or bandwagon problems
The collective knowledge may not be reliable ss just few experts
Delphi method
Uses numerical data and statistical methods to anticipate important changes in the future of a business as well as trends in demand
Test of reliability can easily be performed to determine the accuracy of the forecast
Quantitative forecasting
Represent observations of particular variables over a number of time periods
Looks for patterns in data while regression analysis assumed a casual relationship between two or more variables
Time series statistics
Compiled for different variables at a single point in time
Cross section statistics
Most common indicator of a data set, is simply the average of the data
Mean
Measures how the observations are spread around the mean
Variance
Positive square root of the variance
How tightly all the observations are clustered around the mean in a set of data
Standard deviation
