Research and Assessment Methods

Question 1

Linear method (forecasting)

Answer 1

The linear method uses the change in population (increase or decline) over a period of time and extrapolates that change into the future, in a linear fashion. For example, if the population of Plannersville has grown an average of 1,000 people per year over the last 20 years, it would be assumed to grow by 1,000 people annually in the future.

Question 2

Exponential and Modified Exponential Method (forecasting)

Answer 2

The exponential method uses the rate of growth (or decline), i.e., the percentage change in population over a period of time to estimate the current or future population. In the same Plannersville example, the population has been increasing by 2% per year for the last 20 years. This percentage change is extrapolated into the future. Two percent of 2,000 people is larger than 2% of 1,000 people. The result is a curved line.

A modified exponential projection assumes there is a cap to the change and that at some point the growth will slow or stop, resulting in an S-shaped curved line. The Gompertz Projection is a further modification of the modified exponential, where the growth is slowest at the beginning and speeds up over time.

Question 3

Symptomatic Method (forecasting)

Answer 3

The symptomatic method uses any available data indirectly related to population size, such as housing starts, or new drivers licenses. It then estimates the population using a ratio, such as the average household size (from the U.S. Census). For instance, with the average household size at 2.5, data on 100 new single-family building permits that are issued this year, would yield an estimate of 250 new people will be added to the community.

Question 4

Step-Down Ratio Method (forecasting)

Answer 4

The step-down ratio method is a relatively simple way to estimate or project population. This method uses the ratio of the population in a city and a county (or a larger geographical unit) at a known point in time, such as the decennial Census.

Question 5

Distributed Housing Unit Method (forecasting)

Answer 5

This method multiplies Census Bureau data for the number of housing units by the occupancy rate and persons per household. This method is reliable for slow growth or stable communities but is less reliable in quickly changing communities.

Question 6

Cohort Survival Method (forecasting)

Answer 6

The cohort survival method uses the current population plus natural increase (more births, fewer deaths) and net migration (more in-migration, less out-migration) to calculate a future population. The population is calculated for men and women in specific age groups.

Question 7

Economic base analysis

Answer 7

Looks at basic and non-basic economic activities. Basic activities are those that can be exported, while non-basic activities are those that are locally oriented. The exporting industries make up the economic base of a region.

Question 8

Location quotient

Answer 8

The location quotient is the ratio of an industry’s share of local employment divided by its share of the nation (or other levels of government). A location quotient of less than one indicates an importing economy. If the quotient is greater than one then the area is an exporting economy.

Question 9

Shift-share analysis

Answer 9

analyzes a local economy in comparison with a larger economy. This analysis looks at the differential shift, proportional shift, and economic growth. Looks at two points of time.

Question 10

Input-output analysis

Answer 10

A quantitative method that links suppliers and purchasers to determine the economic output of a region. Input-output analysis is similar to economic base analysis in that it uses an economy’s structure to determine the economy in the future.

An input-output analysis is composed of three tables: transactions, direct requirements, and total requirements.

Question 11

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)

Answer 11

The standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data about the U.S. economy. Developed by OMB in 1997.

Question 12

UrbanSim

Answer 12

Simulation software program that models planning and urban development.

Question 13

CommunityViz

Answer 13

ESRI software environment that allows agencies to analyze land use scenarios and create 3D images. This allows citizens to visualize the potential for development and redevelopment.

Question 14

Urban Footprint

Answer 14

Developed by Peter Calthorpe and Associates and is a more recent addition to the simulation program options for planners. It uses a library of place types, block types, and building types to support interactive scenario building.

Question 15

Cons of a written (mail) survey

Answer 15

Mail surveys have a low response rate, averaging around 20 percent. A written survey also requires the participant to be able to read and write. For this reason, it may be inappropriate when targeting seniors, those that do not speak English, and groups with low rates of literacy.

Question 16

Pros and cons of Group-administered surveys

Answer 16

Pros: targets specific population. Allows high and quick responses.
Cons: getting everyone together to complete the survey. Requires small sample size.

Question 17

Drop-off survey - pros and cons

Answer 17

Allows the survey to be dropped off at someone’s residence or business. Respondents are free to complete the survey at their convenience. Response rates are higher than with a mail survey because the person dropping off the survey may have personal contact with the respondent. This method can be expensive because of the time required to distribute the surveys. The sample is generally smaller than with a mail survey.

Question 18

Phone survey. Pros and cons

Answer 18

Are useful when you need yes or no answers. Surveys on the phone or in person allow the interviewer to follow up and gain further explanation on answers. The response rate varies greatly, depending on the ability to reach potential respondents. Response rates for phone surveys are declining. Phone surveys are usually more expensive than mail or internet-based surveys. Phone and in-person interviews can be biased due to interaction with the interviewer. Long questions and those with multiple answers are difficult to administer using this method.

Question 19

Online survey - pros and cons

Answer 19

Inexpensive an easy to implement. Electronic surveys have higher responses than written or interview.

Cons: bias against people without internet.

Question 20

Stratified sampling

Answer 20

The population is divided into separate groups or classes, from which a sample is drawn such that the classes in the population are represented by the classes in the sample. Different from cluster sampling in that all stratum are sampled.

Question 21

Systemic sampling

Answer 21

Systematic sampling is a probability sampling method in which a random sample, with a fixed periodic interval, is selected from a larger population.

Advantages of this methodology include eliminating the phenomenon of clustered selection and a low probability of contaminating data.
Disadvantages include overrepresentation or underrepresentation of particular patterns and a greater risk of data manipulation.

Question 22

Cluster sampling

Answer 22

Cluster sampling is a two-step procedure. First, the entire population is selected and separated into different clusters. Random samples are then chosen from these subgroups. Different from stratified sampling in that only selected clusters are sampled.

Question 23

How many sq feet in acre

Answer 23

43,560

Question 24

FAR equation

Answer 24

(Total floor area) / (Lot area)

Question 25

How many acres in a hectare?

Answer 25

2.47

Question 26

Net Operating Income Equation

Answer 26

= (Gross Operating Income) (1-vacancy rate) - (operating expenses)

Question 27

Present Value Equation

Answer 27

PV = FV/(1 + i)^t