Reasoning and Decision Making

Question 1

Thought

Answer 1

Normative and Descriptive Model

Question 2

Normative Model

Answer 2

Rule system by which thinking processes might operate

Question 3

Descriptive Model

Answer 3

Psychological theories that may include such non-rational concepts as beliefs, attitudes and memories

Look at what we actually do

Question 4

Reasoning

Answer 4

How a person reaches and evaluates the validity of a conclusion from either explicit or implicit premises

• Rules of logic

validity does not equal truth

Question 5

Deductive Reasoning

Answer 5

Taking many pieces of info and coming to one conclusion

Logical rules -> Syllogism

Question 6

Inductive Reasoning

Answer 6

Taking a piece of info and generalizing it

Question 7

Syllogism

Answer 7

2 premises and a conclusion that follows

All a’s are b’s
all b’s are c’s

therefore all a’s are c’s

Question 8

Conditional reasoning

Answer 8

Look at relationship among statements

dictate validity

If = Antecedent

Then = Consequent

If i am a psych major, it take statistics

Question 9

If A, therefore B

Answer 9

Affirm Antecedent

Question 10

Not A, therefore B

Answer 10

Deny antecent

Question 11

B, therefore A

Answer 11

Affirm consequent

Question 12

Not B, therefore not A

Answer 12

Deny consequent

Question 13

I am a Psych major, therefore I take stats

Answer 13

Affirming antecedent

Valid

Question 14

I am not a psych major, therefore i Do not take stats

Answer 14

Deny antecedent

Invalid

Question 15

I am taking stats, therefore i am a psych major

Answer 15

Affirm consequent

Invalid

Question 16

Im not taking stats therefor I am not a psych major

Answer 16

Deny consequent

Valid

Question 17

What conditional reasonings are valid?

Answer 17

Affirming Antecedent -> Modus ponens

Denying Consequent -> Modus Tollens

Question 18

Watson Card selection task

Answer 18

E - Modus ponenss

7 - Modus Tollens

Question 19

Inductive Reasoning

Answer 19

No right or wrong

Based on what you have already experienced

Question 20

Judging probabilities

Answer 20

Algorithm

Heuristic

Question 21

Algorithm

Answer 21

More difficult, time consuming

Guarantees correct

Ex. Measure height

Question 22

Heuristic

Answer 22

Less time, easier, no guarantee answer is correct

Average height based upon your own

Question 23

Representativeness heuristic

Answer 23

Judge the likelihood of something occurring by how representative it is of the category in mind

Question 24

Conjunction Fallacy - engineer question

Answer 24

Ignoring base rate info

(30% engineer, 7% lawyer)

Question 25

Conjunction Fallacy

Answer 25

Probability of two things occurring can never be greater than the problem of any one of them occurring

Question 26

Fallacy: Ignoring the law of small numbers

Answer 26

Small numbers are more variable– more randomness

Question 27

Gamblers fallacy

Answer 27

We have an idea what we think randomness is

Probability of any coin sequence is equal

Question 28

Availability heuristic

Answer 28

We judge likelihood of something based on how readily available it is in our minds

Question 29

Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

Answer 29

When making numerical judgements, we are based on what the anchor is

(whether the equation starts with a 1 or an 8 will change our answer)

Insufficient judgement fallacy

Question 30

Simulation Heuristic

Answer 30

We make decisions based on how easily we can imagine something happening

e.g. missing the flight,. closer would be worse

Hindsight bias fallacy

Question 31

Framing

Answer 31

The way something is frames affects how we make decisions