Reasoning Flashcards
Inductive reasoning
- to create a general conclusion out of a specific instance.
- the conclusion is no logical premise that follows out of the conclusion but a generalized statement that is not necessarily true.
- -> analogical reasoning
- -> hypothesis testing - leading to general conclusions.
Deductive reasoning
- conclusion follows necessarily from the assumption.
- relation to problem solving. Deductive reasoning has a definitive goal. (a math calculation)
- -> conclusions are necessarily valid
- conditional reasoning
- Syllogistic reasoning
Karl Popper
- falsification is the only reasonable form of scientific reasoning.
No confirmation can ever be reached through hypothesis testing.
Wasons 2-4-6 task
- Experiment of Wason:
The participants were told to name three numbers in search of a rule. The experimenter would tell them if there attempts was correct or false.
A lot of participants struggled with the confirmation bias. They made up a rule and tried to confirm this rule.
confirming behavior costed the pp a lot of time.
Limitation to Wasons task
- no real life scenario
- -> immediate feedback but no answer why their hypothesis was correct or incorrect.
- less confirmation bias if the hypothesis is the one tested of someone else.
Popper
focus on falsification instead of confirmation.
Full confirmation is impossible
Strategies for deductive reasoning
- counterexample strategy:
thinking of a counterexample of the own theory. If nothing comes to mind the theory can be confirmed. - statistical strategy:
Estimating the probability that the hypothesis is true given the knowledge of a person.
Wason selection task with turning around cards
- people have the task to only turn around the tasks that need to be turned in order to detect the true rule.
Matching rule:
Pp only turn around cards that would prove the cards that are already open. ( their theory) +
Denotic rule. ( disproving rule)
Turn around cards that would disprove your rule.
Belief bias
the tendency to belief incorrect but believable information rather than unbelievable but correct conclusions.
Base rate effect
- the knowledge about the likelihood of the information being true effect the way a person reasons about the
Stupple and Ball 2008
- found that pp take more time to process unbelievable premises than believable ones.
People identify the premises with their own beliefs. This is why an unbelievable premise causes more cognitive conflict.
Mental model theory
- John Laireds theory states that people do not make use of deductive reasoning.
Instead they use mental models that are made up of already confirmed premises and prior knowledge.
If the premises and the conclusion are inconsistent the conclusion is invalid.
Alternative models may be formed.
or Counterexample models which function to falsify the model.
The principle of truth
- through the generation of mental models humans seek confirmation
- humans fail to think of what is false
- therefore the models are often not accurate and lead to a false outcome.
System 1 and System 2
System 1 :
- this system does process unconscious fast processing, parallel processing.
heuristics
System two :
conscious
slow and effortful processing , this system is involved in analytical reasoning.
- rule based serial processing
–> problem solving, limited capacity.
Three principles of human reasoning
Singularity principle:
only one model can be considered at a time.
Relevance principle:
the most relevant model, based on the persons knowledge is considered
Satisficing principle :
decision making strategy that aims towards a satisfying or adequate result. Not necessarily to a fully correct result.