quiz 5 (end of extratropical cyclones and chapter 4) Flashcards

1
Q

How does Convergence win the race?
- storms intensify as ….
- Does this keep going on until the world is consumed in a giant storm?

A
  • Recall that storms intensify as the trough and ridge in the upper atmosphere build via feedback from the storm
  • this will not go on until the world is consumed in a giant storm because they are limited by environmental factors
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

The Dissipating Cyclone
1. how long does dissipation of a cyclone take
2. during this time what still happens
3. as cold air continues to move southeastward, what will happen to the trough
4. the low at the surface is directly underneath ___

A
  1. Dissipation of the cyclone can take several days to over a week depending on the maximum intensity of the storm
  2. During this time, active weather still occurs along the frontal boundary
  3. As cold air continues to move southeastward, the upper-level trough
    will continue to deepen and will eventually cut off from the main
    flow
    - This “cutoff low” aloft has cold air in the center
  4. The low at the surface is directly underneath the cutoff low aloft,
    and the whole system slowly spin down as frictional convergence raises the pressure of the surface low
    - Similar to dissipation of hurricane over land
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

The dissipating cyclone: Divergence and the Cutoff Low
1. How does the upper-level divergence change as the flow changes
from an upper level trough and ridge pattern to a cutoff low pattern?

A

Recall that divergence in the Jet stream is due to changes in flow curvature.
* No change in flow curvature from
counterclockwise (trough) to clockwise ridge)
anymore – always counterclockwise
* Divergence becomes insignificant
* Convergence wins and low
dissipate

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q
  1. is there a change in flow curvature from counterclockwise (trough) to clockwise (ridge)? why?
  2. what does divergence become?
  3. surface low pressure systems are the result of….
A
  1. No change in flow curvature from counterclockwise (trough) to clockwise (ridge) anymore – always counterclockwise.
    - This because wind is faster around the ridge than the trough
  2. Divergence becomes insignificant
    - With no change in wind speed, little divergence
  3. Recall that surface low pressure systems are the result of net divergence.
    - Convergence wins and low dissipates
    - That is divergent flow aloft is greater than the convergent flow at the surface
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

True or false: You would expect a low pressure center to form or intensify at the surface when divergence is greater than convergence in a column of the
atmosphere

A

True
- When divergence aloft (in the upper atmosphere) is greater than convergence at the surface, air is being removed from the upper levels faster than it’s being replaced from below. This creates a net upward motion of air, which leads to lower surface pressure

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

Extratropical Cyclones in North America
- cyclones preferentially form in five locations in North America (5)

A
  1. East of the Rocky Mountains
  2. East of Canadian Rockies
  3. Gulf Coast of the US
  4. East Coast of the US
  5. Bering Sea & Gulf of Alask
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

Origins of the Coastal Cyclones
1.coastal cyclones form in two regions
2. why are the cyclones along the East and Gulf Coasts often more intense than the Rocky Mountain counterparts

A
  1. Costal cyclones form in two regions: (1) off the central East Coast and (2) off the Gulf Coast
    • Cyclones form along the East and Gulf Coasts of the US are often more intense than their Rocky Mountain counterparts, because of:
      Coastal cyclones form over warm water = more latent heat to cyclones
      More sensible heat from ocean to
      cyclone
      Stronger thermal contrast btw land and ocean
      Exist both the polar and subtropical
      jetstreams
      Cyclones over water experience less
      friction
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

How Often are the Coastal Cyclones?
- what effect do coastal cyclone shave on the northeast US and Canada
- how often and what seasons

A
  • Coastal cyclones have the greatest economic impact of any storm type on the northeast United States and Canada, even more than hurricanes.
  • Extratropical cyclones form along the East and Gulf Coasts of North America several time each year during late fall, winter, and early spring
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

EXTREME WEATHER AND THE AMERICAN REVOLUTION
- The Winter of 1779-80
- The Great Hurricane of 1780
- The Battle of Trenton

A
  • Extreme weather significantly impacted the American Revolutionary War, both on the battlefield and for civilians. Notable events
  • The Winter of 1779-80: This winter, considered the coldest on record for the East Coast, severely tested the
    Continental Army, particularly during their winter quarters outside Morristown, New Jersey. Snowstorms, including a blizzard that dumped four feet of snow, left soldiers lacking essential supplies like coats, shoes, and food.
  • The Great Hurricane of 1780: This devastating hurricane caused significant losses to both the British and French navies, which were using Caribbean ports as staging areas. The storm contributed to the French deciding to move their ships north, which ultimately aided the American forces at the Siege of Yorktown.
  • The Battle of Trenton: On December 25, 1776, George Washington led his troops across the icy Delaware
    River. During the crossing, weather conditions worsened, with sleet and snow hindering their progress
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

A Little Rhode Island History and Weather

A
  • 1776- British occupied Newport
  • During the “Little Ice Age”
  • Not a true ice age of global extent.
  • Unusually cold time, defined as extending from the 16th to the 19th
    centuries.
  • British burned about half of Newport for firewood to stay warm
  • Almost half of the town evacuated. Didn’t recover from the economic
    effect until mid 1800’s.
  • Industrial revolution didn’t take off there as it did in other American
    cities. No pressure to tear down the colonial buildings. This is why
    Newport has more colonial buildings than any other American city
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

Battle of Rhode Island

A
  • 1778- French join war and bring war ships and troops into Narragansett Bay to help drive English out of Newport.
  • English Navy approaches the Bay. French don’t want to get trapped. Leave Bay to engage English.
  • Large storm rolls in and damages and scatters both navies.
  • Result- Battle of Rhode Island was a nothingburger.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

battle of rhode island
- continued

A
  • English abandoned Newport in October 1779, when the British, facing
    strategic challenges elsewhere, decided to evacuate Rhode Island.
  • In July 1780, a French army, led by General Rochambeau, arrived in
    Newport. The French troops, a significant force of over 5,000 men,
    established a base in Newport and later played a key role in the American victory at Yorktown.
  • July 1781, the French force left Rhode Island and marched across
    Connecticut to join Washington on the Hudson River in New York.
  • General’s Washington and Rochambeau then marched their combined forces to the siege of Yorktown and the Battle of the Chesapeake. Surrounded the British who surrendered
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

A Few Notable Nor-easters
1. hurricane sandy
2. halloween 2011
3. april 14 to 18, 2007

A
  1. Hurricane Sandy- October 2012- record-setting storm surge was responsible for an estimated $62 billion in damage and loss in the U.S., as well as $315 million and 71 deaths in the Caribbean. Just as the hurricane headed northward along the coast, leaving Florida for the Eastern Seaboard, a cold nor’easter, morphed it into a hybrid part nor’easter.
  2. Halloween 2011- nor’easter ushered in a white Halloween. Snow began
    falling in record amounts on Oct. 29, 2011. About 3 million people who lived
    in areas impacted by the storm were left without power for days, thanks to
    power lines brought down by heavy ice and snow
  3. April 14 to 18, 2007 portions of Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New York and New Hampshire flooded homes and businesses, as well as property damaged by high winds and travel made treacherous by snowfall
    The massive storm system measured 800 miles (1,287 kilometers) across,
    intensifying into a nor’easter and reaching from the Carolinas to Canada
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

The Blizzard of 1978

A
  • The Blizzard of 1978- catastrophic,
    nor’easter that struck New England,
    New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and the
    New York metropolitan area
    Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
    Massachusetts were hit especially hard
    by this storm
  • Providence also broke a record with
    27.6 inches (70 cm) of snow; Nearly
    all economic activity was disrupted in
    the worst-hit areas. The storm killed
    about 100 people in the Northeast and
    injured about 4,500. It caused more
    than US$520 million (US$2.51 billion
    in 2024 terms) in damage
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

Yearly Beach Cycle
- Summer
- Winter

A

Summer
- gentle waves
- carry sand to shore but too weak to carry back to sea
- wider beach results
Winter
- erosive storm waves
- sand carried seaward to offshore sandbars
- narrow beach

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

effects of hard structures on beach erosion

A

Hard structures tend to cause
more erosion

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
17
Q

Beach Replenishment: Sand Pumped from offshore

A
  • Process by which sediment, usually sand, lost through longshore drift or erosion is replaced from other sources.
  • Nourishment is typically a repetitive
    process since it does not remove the
    physical forces that cause erosion but
    simply mitigates their effects.
  • The first nourishment project in the
    United States was at Coney Island, New
    York in 1922 and 1923. It is now a
    common shore protection measure used by public and private entities.
  • Since 1923, the U.S. has spent $9 billion to rebuild beaches
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
18
Q

Review: Extratropical Cyclones in North
- Cyclones preferentially form in
five locations in North America:

A

(1) East of the Rocky Mountains
(2) East of Canadian Rockies
(3) Gulf Coast of the US
(4) East Coast of the US
(5) Bering Sea & Gulf of Alaska

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
19
Q

east coast cyclone: prior to development
- east coast cyclones typically develop after ….
- the cold air damming between the coast and the appalachian mountain leads to
- prior to cyclone development what happens with subtropical jetstreams

A
  • East coast cyclones typically
    develop after an earlier cyclone
    originates east of the Rockies and
    progresses across the continent,
    which brings cold airs to the East
    Coast.
  • The cold air damming between the
    coast and the Appalachian Mountain leads to the formation of a coastal front.
  • Prior to the cyclone development, subtropical jetstream moves northward to merge with the polar jetstream
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
20
Q

east coast cyclone: initial development
- where do jetstreaks and subtropical jetstreams move
- the upper-level divergence associated with the jetstreaks induced…
- latent and sensible heat released from the ocean and helps with …
- strong winds and heavy snows lead to what
- east coast cyclones also known as

A
  • The jetstreaks in the polar and
    subtropical jetstreams move eastward
    and are on top of the surface coastal
    front.
  • The upper-level divergence
    associated with the jetstreaks induced
    upper-level divergence which then
    begin the development of a low
    pressure center on the surface.
    *Latent and sensible heat releases from
    the ocean help the development.
    *The pressure can drop as much
    as 30mb in 24 hours.
    *Strong winds and heavy snows lead
    to blizzard conditions.
  • East Coast cyclones are called
    “Nor’easter”
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
21
Q

Explosive Cyclogenesis  Bomb
- what do meterologists use to describe the rapid deepening of a low pressure center
- if the central pressure drops 24 mb in 24 hours what is the cyclone called

A
  • Meteorologists use “explosive cyclogenesis” to describe the rapid deepening of a low- pressure center during cyclone formation.
  • If the central pressure drops 24 mb in
    24 hours, the cyclone is called a “bomb
    cyclone”
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
22
Q

east coast cyclone: mature phase
- east coast cylones track which way along the coast? when do they typically reach their maximum intensity?
- during this phase of the cyclone, the polar and subtropical jetstreams do what?
- what does the upper-level trough do
- a cutoff low is formed and what happens?
- the filling is slower over ____ than land

A
  • East Coast cyclones track northeast
    along the coast and typically reach
    their maximum intensity 24-48
    hours after the initial development.
    *During this phase of the cyclone
    evolution, the polar and subtropical jetstreams typically merge and
    propagate northeastward along the
    east side of the storm.
    *The upper-level trough continues to
    deepen and is eventually filled with cold air transported southward from west of the surface low.
    *A cutoff low is formed and eventually filled by the convergence due to surface friction.
    *The filling is slower over ocean
    than over land.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
23
Q

Gulf Coast Cyclones
- when do gulf coast cyclones develop most frequently
- when do subtropical jetstreams tend to be strong
- gulf coast cycloes follow two tracks

A

Gulf Coast cyclones develop most
frequently during years when the
subtropical jetstream is a persistent
feature in the upper troposphere over
northern Mexico and the Gulf of
Mexico.
* Subtropical jetstreams tend to be
strong in El Nino years, therefore,
Gulf Coast cyclones are more
common during El Nino years.
* Gulf Coast cyclones follow two
tracks: (1) along the Gulf Coast and
then northeast along the Atlantic
Seaboard and (2) inland along the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
24
Q

El Nino and La Nina

A
  • An important atmospheric variation that has an average period of three to seven years.
  • Goes between El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina (ENSO cycle, El Nino Southern Oscillation)
  • Has large influence both in the tropics and midlatitudes
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
25
Gulf Coast Cyclone: Prior to Development - gulf coast cyclones typically develop after ... - what is often present over the entire eastern US and typically develops in association with an earlier Rocky Mountain cyclone - a subtropical jet stream flows from ...
* Gulf Coast cyclones typically develop after a cold front or an arctic front move across the US and arrives at the Gulf Coast. *Aloft, a large trough is often present over the entire eastern US, which typically develops in association with an earlier Rocky Mountain cyclone. *A subtropical jet stream flows from the tropical Pacific Ocean, across Mexico and over the Gulf Coast
26
east coast storm track - what does a jet streak in the subtropical jet stream usually trigger? - what does upper-level divergence of the jet stream begin to develop? - as the low-pressure center forms and intensify along the cold front where does cold air begin to move? - part of the cold front becomes ...
* A jet streak in the subtropical jet stream usually triggers the storm formation. *Upper-level divergence of the jet stream begins to develop a low- pressure center on the cold front. *As the low-pressure center forms and intensify along the cold front, cold air begin to move out over the warm Gulf waters west of the low center. *Part of the cold front becomes a warm front
27
Mississippi-Ohio River Valley Storm Track - when is the gulf coast cyclones more likely to track northward along the Mississippi valley? - what does the subtropical jet stream do east of the trough axis? - cyclones forming in this environment are usually ___ in intensity than their coastal counterparts - what may occur in the southeast sectors of the low due to moist airs? - where does the cyclone first develop?
*Gulf Coast cyclones are more likely to track northward along the Mississippi Vally when the upper-level trough is farther west over the central US prior to their formation and the airflow across the eastern third of the US is southerly. *The subtropical jet stream merges into the polar jet stream east of the trough axis. *Cyclones forming in this environment is usually weaker in intensity than their costal counterparts. * Floods may occur in the southeast sectors of the low due to moist airs *The cyclone first develops along the cold front
28
some weather lore - what did ancient weather forecasting methods usually rely on - were they reliable?
* Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. * This experience accumulated over the generations to produce weather lore. * However, not all of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing * We still say, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky in morning, sailor’s warning” and this mostly works
29
modern weather forecasting - what invention began the modern age of weather forecasting - the first daily weather forecasts were published in - the world's first televised weather forecasts were experimentally broadcoasat by ___ in ____ - in the 20th century advances of _____ led to the foundation of modern numerical weather prediction
* It was not until the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835 that the modern age of weather forecasting began * The first daily weather forecasts were published in The Times in 1861. * The world's first televised weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the BBC in November 1936 * 20th century - advances in the understanding of atmospheric physics led to the foundation of modern numerical weather prediction. * Improvement about one day per decade for the past 40 years.
30
why this improvement? - ____ based numerical models - in 1922, english scientist ____ published "weather prediction by numerical process" - what did this scientist envision
* Computer based numerical models * In 1922, English scientist Lewis Fry Richardson published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process * Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of thousands of people performing the calculations and passing them to others. However, the sheer number of calculations required was too large to be completed without the use of computers
31
numerical weather prediction
* uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. * Just use classical laws of physics to say how each bit of air will change in a short time. * Do this for all the bits of air in the atmosphere and then repeat over and over
32
Numerical Weather Prediction or Forecast - fluid dynamics
* The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is simple in principle: * sample the state of the atmosphere at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future. - Fluid Dynamics – Branch of physics that describes the flow of fluids – liquids and gases
33
foundation of weather prediction - laplacian determinism --> in other words
* Laplacian Determinism- “We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future.” * Weather prediction is just an extension of this view. * In other words, “You give me the position and momentum (mass and velocity) of every particle in the universe and their past and future values for any given time are determined; they can be calculated from the laws of classical mechanics (the physics of Newton). * “This includes weather.”
34
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION Models: Simplified View
1. Consider the atmosphere as a bunch of little boxes. We call this a grid. 2. Write down how the temperature, pressure, humidity and velocity (P, T, h, v)of each box changes depending on these values and the values in its neighboring boxes. 3. Solve all this equations for new values of T, P, h and v at at a short time in the future. - Repeat steps 2 and 3, over and over.
35
Lewis Richardson (1881-1953)
- In the 1920s, he proposed solving the weather prediction equations using numerical methods. Worked for six weeks to do a six-hour “hindcast” by hand. His forecast was poor. Although he failed to predict the weather, he predicted the future of weather prediction. - Proposed a wild scheme to predict the weather in real time. His scheme was totally impractical because of the lack of computing power. - For the last 15 years of his life focused on the study of war and its prevention. He took a mathematical approach to these problems as well. For most people, the idea that mathematics might be the key to world peace seems naive and implausible, but maybe we shouldn't be too quick to give up on it.
36
Richardson’s Weather Prediction Factorys - what did lewis fry richardson propose the creation of - what would each calculator be responsible for - what would the conductor on the pedestal in the center of the factory be responsible for
*Meteorologist Lewis Fry Richardson, creator of the first dynamic model for weather prediction, proposed the creation of a “forecast factory” that would employ some 64,000 human computers sitting in tiers around the circumference of a giant globe. *Each calculator would be responsible for solving equations related to the weather in his quadrant of the earth. *From a pedestal in the center of the factory, a conductor would orchestrate this symphony of equations by shining a beam of light on areas of the globe where calculation was moving too fast or falling behind.
37
- what was peformed in 1948 - what was used in 1955
* 1948- The first computerized weather forecast was performed by a team led by meteorologist Jule Charney, mathematician John von Neumann, and ENIAC programmer Klara Dan von Neumann at the Inst. of Advanced Studies, Princeton. * 1955- First practical use of numerical weather prediction
38
Who was Von Neumann?
* Hungarian and American mathematician, physicist, computer scientist and engineer. * Most influential mathematician of his time making major contributions to many fields, including mathematics, physics, economics, computing, and statistics. * Pioneer in building the mathematical framework of quantum physics, in the development of functional analysis, and in game theory, introducing or codifying concepts including cellular automata, the universal constructor and the digital computer. * His analysis of the structure of self-replication preceded the discovery of the structure of DNA. * During World War II, von Neumann worked on the Manhattan Project. He developed the mathematical models behind the explosive lenses used in the implosion-type nuclear weapon
39
Who was Jule Charney?
* Considered the father of modern dynamical meteorology, Charney is credited with having "guided the postwar evolution of modern meteorology more than any other living figure.“ * Long time Professor at MIT
40
Weather Prediction is a type of LaPlacian Determinism - according to determinism if someone knows the precise location and momentum of every atom in the universe....
According to determinism, if someone knows the precise location and momentum of every atom in the universe, their past and future values for any given time are entailed; they can be calculated from the laws of classical mechanics.
41
Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace 23 1749 –5 March 1827
* French polymath, a scholar whose work has been instrumental in the fields of physics, astronomy, mathematics, engineering, statistics, and philosophy. * Laplace popularized and further confirmed Sir Isaac Newton's work. * Developed the nebular hypothesis of the origin of the Solar System. * One of the first scientists to suggest an idea similar to that of a black hole
42
Implications of LaPlace’s View
- Everything is predetermined and in principle predictable! - This view is not generally accepted by present-day theoretical physicists!
43
Two Types of non-predictable systems 1. Intrinsically non-deterministic 2. Deterministic chaotic
1. Intrinsically non-deterministic- Quantum theory in physics, states that many small-scale phenomenon are fundamentally probabilistic and not deterministic. Our inability to predict outcomes in this type of system is not due to a lack of sufficient knowledge. 2. Deterministic chaotic- Outcomes are determined by the present state but is extremely sensitive to small variations in the present state. Small errors in measurements lead to large errors in prediction in chaotic systems. In contrast, in quantum mechanics, indeterminacy is of a fundamental nature, having nothing to do with errors or disturbance
44
Limits of Forecasting - what is climate - systems like weather are hugely sensitive to ... - butterfly effect
* Climate is a “Chaotic System” * Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. * Systems like weather are hugely sensitive to the initial conditions: * Butterfly Effect- A metaphor for chaotic systems is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Texas can cause a tornado in Brazil.
45
Numerical Weather Prediction Model
* Setup a grid representing finite locations in atmosphere * Setup equations to describe flow and properties such as temperature and moisture evolution in each box. * Step model through time, a few minute step intervals
46
Simple in Concept Complicated in Practice
* Each step requires 100’s of millions of calculations * Equations are often oversimplifications because of lack of knowledge or computational efficiency * Errors in the initial conditions * Inadequate spatial resolution
47
laplace's demon
a hypothetical intelligence envisioned by Pierre-Simon Laplace that could, if it knew the precise positions and velocities of every particle in the universe at a given moment, predict the entire future and past
48
foundations of physics - quantum mechanics and general relativity
- quantum mechanics and general relativity are the foundations of our present day understanding of the physical world. Both developed in the early 20th century. - quantum mechanics is the fundamental physical theory that describes the behavior of matter and of light - a fundamental feature of the theory is that it usually cannot predict with certainty what will happen, but only gives probabilities.
49
chaotic systems - what are chaotic systems - small change can lead to what - chaotic systems evolve by following... - are long term predictions possible?
- chaotic systems are unpredictable due to their sensitive dependence on initial conditions and nonlinearity - this means small changes can lead to drastically different outcomes - chaotic systems evolve following underlying laws with their future state dependent of their present state. they are not probabilistic. - yet, long-term predictions remain fundamentally impossible because of this sensitivity on initial conditions - in practice, we can never know the initial conditions with enough precision to accurately predict their evolution.
50
The increase in CO2 due to human activity is causing (2)
global warming and more extreme weather events
51
keeling curve
- a graph that shows the continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations - This is called the “Keeling Curve” after the scientist who began measuring atmospheric CO2 accurately and precisely in the late 1950’s
52
how much have humans increased carbon dioxide in the past 200 years
Human activity has increased carbon dioxide approximately 50% in the past 200 years
53
The Woman Who Demonstrated the Greenhouse Effect - Eunice Newton Foote - what experiment did she do and what was her conclusion
- Eunice Newton Foote (July 17, 1819 – September 30, 1888) was an American scientist, inventor, and women's rights campaigner. - In 1856, decades before the term “greenhouse gas” was coined, Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated the greenhouse effect in her home laboratory. - She placed a glass cylinder full of carbon dioxide in sunlight and found that it heated up much more than a cylinder of ordinary air. - Her conclusion: more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere results in a warmer planet.
54
Svante Arrhenius
- In the late 1800’s, Svante Arrhenius argued that a doubling of CO2 would cause a temperature rise of 5 - 6 °C. - Recent estimates are generally between 2.5 and 4.0 C (4.5 to 7.2 °F). - A rise of 500% is expected to lead to a global temperature rise of approximately 5 to 12 C (9 to 21 F)
55
Roger Revelle (1957)
"Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future.”
56
1965 report by President Lyndon B. Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee - what does it warn about
- This 1965 report by President Lyndon B. Johnson’s Science Advisory Committee warns about the impacts of pollution and humanity’s role in curbing its effects. - Appendix Y4 on “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” focuses on the hazardous increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to humanity’s production and combustion of fossil fuels.
57
what year was there a "recent" broader recognition of global warming
1988
58
Have the nations of the world ever solved a global-scale pollution problem?
- In the 1980’s countries successfully banned the production of Freons which deplete the ozone layer.
59
Has there been an International effort to limit CO2? - what important accords (2) - what do governments generally diverge on
- Countries have debated how to combat climate change since the early 1990s. - These negotiations have produced several important accords, including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. - Governments generally agree on the science behind climate change but have diverged on: * who is most responsible, * how to track emissions-reduction goals, and * whether to compensate harder-hit countries.
60
International Agreements to Decrease Greenhouse Gasses - 1992 - 1997 - 2009
- 1992- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established an international environmental treaty to combat "dangerous human interference with the climate system", in part by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. - 1997- The Kyoto Protocol implemented the objective of the UNFCCC to reduce the onset of global warming by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to "a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" . - 2009- Copenhagen Agreement endorses the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol. Underlines that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and emphasizes a "strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities“ International Agreements to Decrease Greenhouse Gasses
61
Principal Mitigation Strategies (3)
– Increased efficiency – Development of alternative energy – Point source capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide
62
how efficient have we been in terms of mitigation strategies
- Efficiency has improved but the global economy is expanding. - Alternative Energy production is expanding
63
Geoengineering - what is geoengineering
* Geoengineering is the INTENTIONAL LARGE-SCALE manipulation of the environment. * Geoengineering is not other types of mitigation, it is not: – Increased efficiency – Development of alternative energy – Point source capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide
64
what is "greenhouse warming"
1. solar energy reaches earth's surface 2. earth's surface warms, emits radiation 3. greenhouse gases absorb IR leaving the surface 4. gases are energized, then emit radiation (IR) 5. some of this IR reaches the planet surface, warming it further 6. Molecules absorb IR radiation. 7. The energy increases the movement of the molecules: rotation and stretching & bending of bonds 8. The molecules rotate and vibrate
65
what 4 gases are considered greenhouse gases
1. water vapor (H20) 2. carbon dioxide (CO2) 3. methane (CH4) 4. nitrous oxide (N2O) * Atmospheric methane has also risen due to human activity. * It is a potent greenhouse gas * But since it is more reactive in the atmosphere than CO2 , having a 10 year lifetime, it will not build up as much. * Thus it contributes to human caused warming but not as much as CO2
66
The Greenhouse Effect: Review - what does the greenhouse effect act as
The greenhouse effect acts like a huge blanket, limiting the heat energy lost.